A narrow victory for the "yes" camp in Moldova's referendum on the EU is not exactly the result that pro-EU President Maia Sandu was hoping for.
By calling for the referendum, the Soviet-born and Moldovan- and U.S.-educated Sandu was hoping to capitalize on EU support and largesse, as well as political momentum from having beaten back rampant inflation in part from energy diversification away from Russia.
But after a nail-biting vote count into its final minutes, Sandu and her allies snatched victory from the jaws of defeat despite consistent majority support for EU integration that hit the 63 percent mark in a poll just weeks ahead of the vote.
In the simultaneous presidential election, which she was widely tipped to win, Sandu came in first. But Socialist challenger and former Prosecutor-General Alexandr Stoianoglo did better than expected, and voters catapulted him into a presidential runoff in two weeks' time with 26 percent to Sandu's 42 percent.
Between Russia And The EU
Both votes in this fractured former Soviet republic with ostensible EU ambitions and a shared border with Ukraine were seen as intensely geopolitical by Moldovans and outsiders watchful for signs of anti-Western contagion and eroding unity against the Russian threat.
Analyst Denis Cenusa of the Expert-Grup at Germany's University of Giessen recently called Moldova a potential "swing state" between pro-Russian and pro-European trajectories.
While the "yes" vote in the referendum clears the way for the "irreversibility of the European course" in Moldova, the slim margins of the win are not a strong legitimization of Sandu's EU aspirations. The tight result could potentially herald a new period of political instability and protests, with calls for recounts and allegations of fraud from both sides.
This uncertainty -- and potential instability -- makes Moldova even more vulnerable to meddling from Russia, which still regards Moldova as its "near abroad" and where it keeps hundreds of troops in the breakaway region of Transdniester.
In the early hours of October 21, Sandu announced that "criminal groups together with foreign forces" tried to "buy 300,000 votes" -- double previous suggestions by security and law enforcement officials.
Russian Meddling
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center fellow Maksim Samorukov recently warned that while Russia's "tool kit has narrowed significantly" since it invaded Ukraine, Moldova's small size makes buying a significant portion of votes simpler than in many other would-be targets.
With Moldova holding parliamentary elections next summer, the Kremlin is likely to boost those disinformation and interference operations in support of pro-Russian parties such as Stoianoglo's Party of Socialists against Sandu's liberal ruling Party of Action and Solidarity.
But for Sandu, the first order of business will be the November 3 runoff against Stoianoglo, a 57-year-old from Gagauzia, an autonomous region of Moldova with pro-Russian sentiment.
Some analysts have predicted Sandu won't have an easy ride and will be punished in round two for having called the referendum in such a polarized atmosphere.
