WASHINGTON -- As NATO leaders gather in Ankara for a summit expected to shape the alliance's future direction, European capitals are looking beyond defense spending targets and procurement announcements to what many see as the meeting's defining challenge: whether the alliance can demonstrate political unity at a moment of profound geopolitical change.
The July 7-8 summit of NATO's 32 member states comes amid continued Russian aggression against Ukraine, growing pressure on European allies to shoulder more of the defense burden, and persistent questions over the future of the transatlantic relationship under US President Donald Trump.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the gathering aims to ensure the alliance "continues to deliver."
Trump's schedule underscores his central role at the summit, with participation in the leaders' working session, bilateral meetings, and a concluding press conference before departing Ankara.
Much of the commentary surrounding the summit has focused on uncertainty over Washington's long-term commitment to European security.
But Michael Hikari Cecire, a defense and security policy researcher at RAND, argues that this framing overlooks a deeper strategic transformation already underway.
"The standard commentary surrounding the NATO summit in Ankara will likely focus on familiar anxieties: a politically volatile, increasingly hemispherist US and a European continent worried about the durability of the post-1945 order," Cecire told RFE/RL in an interview. “But this crisis narrative misses the deeper structural reality.”
Rather than witnessing the failure of transatlanticism, Cecire argues that the relationship itself is evolving.
“Transatlanticism isn't necessarily failing so much as its geometry is changing," he said, describing a transition "away from the old, pyramid-shaped hierarchy dominated by, and dependent upon, Washington toward a more dyadic partnership of equals, bound by ironclad operational realities.”
In Cecire's view, the US and Europe remain strategically inseparable despite shifts in US force posture and changing security priorities.
"From defense supply chains to forward basing, the US and Europe remain fundamentally codependent," he said.
That, he argues, means the summit's central task extends beyond reassuring allies about America's commitment to Europe.
"The true task of the summit isn't to fight a rearguard action for an exhausted status quo ante, but to build a more flexible framework that reflects this new macro-order," Cecire said.
His argument points to an alliance entering a new phase in which Europe is expected to assume greater responsibility for its own security while remaining deeply integrated with US military capabilities and operational planning.
For Europe, Cecire said, that "may mean unlearning NATO's foundational premises, established by Washington itself after the Second World War," and taking on greater responsibility "for its own continental security and for global peace and prosperity."
He acknowledged that such a transition would be costly, politically difficult, and represent a profound cultural shift, but said it would also give Europe "new agency and responsibility as a normalized, proactive security actor."
At the same time, Cecire stressed that Washington's strategic priorities are evolving rather than disappearing.
The United States, he said, has committed itself to "a more hemispherist and homeland oriented national security and defense strategy," while continuing to demonstrate global commitments through the Iran conflict, its Indo-Pacific focus, and continued reliance on forward basing and allied cooperation in Europe and elsewhere.
While Cecire sees the summit as part of a longer-term strategic transition, European officials say its immediate success will be judged by whether allies project political cohesion.
Senior European officials told RFE/RL ahead of the summit that their foremost concern is less about defense spending targets than avoiding public divisions that could weaken NATO's credibility.
One senior European official said leaders hope Ankara will replicate the cooperative atmosphere seen at last month's G7 summit in France, where Trump joined other leaders in backing additional pressure on Russia through sanctions targeting oil exports and the banking sector.
That outcome was viewed by several European capitals as evidence that transatlantic coordination remains possible despite recurring tensions.
Officials acknowledged that public disagreements, particularly involving Washington, could overshadow substantive agreements reached behind closed doors and weaken NATO's deterrence message.
