Europe
After US Snubs London Meeting, What's Europe's Game Plan For Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks?
Over the past week, European nations largely represented by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have tried their best to engage in talks between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia.
There were a number of rather successful high-level meetings in Paris on April 17 and one in London six days later that ended up being politically downgraded after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff pulled out.
The snub reportedly came over Kyiv's unwillingness to agree to a peace plan involving the recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
On April 26, US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the funeral for Pope Francis at the Vatican, but no breakthroughs were reported.
After speaking with several European diplomats familiar with the matter, it's clear that something of a game plan has emerged in response.
What Is Europe Doing Toward Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks?
The first priority is keeping the Americans onboard and keeping them talking to the Ukrainians. Exactly how successful this aim can be is up in the air, as Washington has threatened to walk away if no progress is made soon.
The officials I talked to, however, believe this could be a negotiation tactic aimed to pressure Ukraine, saying Trump has a penchant for playing tough in public only to go back to the negotiation table later -- as evidenced by the way he has enacted and retracted sweeping trade tariffs in recent weeks.
The Europeans are keen to secure what they call a "sequencing," meaning first a cease-fire observed by both sides followed by lasting peace.
The belief is that this could ensure more of Ukraine's security interests are guaranteed and that not everything is on Moscow’s terms. There is hope that Ukraine's willingness to observe a cease-fire in the past month -- and Russia's failure to do so -- shows that Kyiv is acting in good faith and not Moscow.
This would also buy the Europeans time to assemble a "reassurance force" in the Western part of Ukraine with at least some sort of American political backing, even though American participation seems off the table, according to the European diplomats I spoke with.
The current thinking is less of a "boots on the ground" presence and more toward air patrolling with the aim of securing Lviv airport and the surrounding areas as a transport hub for Ukraine.
The Europeans are also keen to continue military aid to the country.
Although there is an understanding that it might be impossible to completely fill the void left by the United States, there's hope that European money will keep flowing and the new German government in place in early May will be more forthcoming, notably on providing Kyiv with long-awaited Taurus cruise missiles.
What About The US Call To Recognize Crimea As Russian?
As for some of America's demands for a potential peace proposal, the Europeans are also crystal-clear.
There will never be a de jure recognition of Crimea as part of Russia -- unless, of course, Ukraine agrees to it. De facto recognition of the lands currently under Russian control is another matter. Ukrainian NATO membership being off the table can also be swallowed.
Several European states hid behind the United States when, under the Biden administration, it nixed the prospects of inviting Ukraine into the military alliance at both the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023 and in Washington a year later.
Eventual EU membership, though, is another matter. Brussels and all key European capitals are adamant Moscow has no say in that.
According to diplomats familiar with the proposed American peace deal, Russia accepts that Ukraine could join the bloc. A so-called Cyprus scenario, which means all of Ukraine could at some point be considered part of the club whereas in fact only those parts under Kyiv's control would be, is the most likely solution.
One thing that appears off the table for now, to much European relief, is the call for new elections in Ukraine, a point that diplomats told me has quietly disappeared from American talking points after it was initially mentioned as a potential condition. I have heard that Russia still might want to push for it.
Could Europe Relax Sanctions On Russia?
Then there are the sanctions. While the United States has offered Russia sanctions relief, the Europeans are not in favor. You would need unanimity to lift the measures now, and that unanimity simply doesn't exist.
In fact, I was told Paris and Berlin want to pile up pressure on Russia and, in particular, enact more restrictive measures in the coming weeks.
A 17th round of restrictive measures against the Kremlin was in the works already after the deadly Russian attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Sumy and Kryviy Rih earlier in April, and Brussels will now speed up those efforts.
The EU is also finalizing asset freezes and visa bans against 15 Russians accused of carrying out hybrid attacks on the EU in a separate sanctions package.
As with all things related to Russia, EU officials admit it will be hard to get Hungary to give the green light and that is why the next package is likely to be symbolic rather than hard-hitting.
They also need to secure Budapest's consent to roll over sectoral sanctions on Russia in July. There are plenty of worries that this won’t happen and that even other member states will start picking out sanctions measures they don't like, hence the scrambling for alternatives to keep the sanction measures alive.
The one item that most countries want to save are the near 200 billion euros of frozen Russian assets in the bloc, not least of all because the EU would like to use this sum as a bargaining chip against Moscow to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The windfall profits from frozen assets currently bankrolls Ukraine's military needs, and the 45 billion euro G7 loan propping up Kyiv's macrofinancial needs for 2025 is backed up using frozen assets as a collateral. So Europe will want to sustain at least some sanctions on Russia going forward.
- By RFE/RL
Trump, Zelenskyy Talk Peace Deal On Sidelines Of Pope Francis Funeral
US President Donald Trump met with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, ahead of the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican, as the two leaders look to make progress on high-stakes peace talks for the war in Ukraine.
Steven Cheung, the White House's communications director, said on April 26 that Trump and Zelenskyy "met privately today and had a very productive discussion."
This was the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy since their explosive Oval Office shouting match in late February, which led to an unprecedented diplomatic crisis. Their talk on the sidelines of the funeral comes amid Trump's calls for a high-level summit between Russia and Ukraine "to finish it off" and get a peace deal.
"Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out," Zelenskyy wrote on X in a post shared after the funeral. "Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results."
Zelenskyy added that he thanked Trump for the "good meeting" at the Vatican, and his press secretary, Serhiy Nykyforov, said the two presidents talked for around 15 minutes. Nykyforov had said earlier that Trump and Zelenskyy would meet again the same day, but later said no second meeting took place due to a tight schedule for both leaders.
Trump had earlier claimed that a deal to end the war is "very close" in a social media post and he had previously warned both sides that Washington was prepared to walk away from US-led efforts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow if an agreement was not reached soon.
The two presidents also met with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the funeral. Zelenskyy's office said that the meeting between the four leaders "was positive."
Trump presented a "final offer" to Ukraine and Russia last week to end the war. The US proposal was described to RFE/RL by a European diplomat familiar with the details and a former US diplomat familiar with the proposal also confirmed its contents.
It includes US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.
That proposal has had led to differences between not only Washington and Kyiv, but also European governments who hold additional concerns on how quickly sanctions on Russia would be lifted if a peace deal was signed, what kind of security guarantees Ukraine would have, and how Ukraine would be financially compensated.
Whether those details were discussed at the Vatican is unclear, but Trump criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin in a post on Truth Social after he left the pope's funeral, saying that recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets may require him to implement bank or secondary sanctions against Russia to achieve a lasting truce.
"There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along," Trump wrote.
On April 26, three people were killed and seven wounded in Russian shelling of the Donetsk region, local authorities said.
Eight bombs were air-dropped by Russian forces on the town of Kostyantynivka, said Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, via Telegram.
"Russians don't need peace -- they just want to destroy us all," Filashkin added.
Trump and Zelenskyy's talks on the sidelines of the funeral came after Trump envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Putin at the Kremlin on April 25.
As the funeral proceedings were under way, Putin said in a speech that Russia had regained control of Kursk, the border region where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive last year.
"The Kyiv regime's adventure has completely failed," Putin said.
The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said Ukrainian troops are still operating in Kursk and called Putin's statement untrue.
RFE/RL was not able to independently verify the battlefield claims.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 26 that Putin told Witkoff during their meeting that the Kremlin is ready to talk with Ukraine without preconditions.
A High-Profile Funeral For Pope Francis
Trump and Zelenskyy were among more than 50 heads of state gathered for Pope Francis's funeral as Roman Catholics paid tribute to a pontiff who was a humble leader and a champion of the poor, migrants, and other marginalized people.
More than a dozen royals, including Britain's Prince William, and more than 150 country representatives were also present along with some 224 cardinals and 750 bishops and priests.
China, which does not have formal relations with the Vatican, did not send a representative due to presence of an high-ranking officials from Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.
The Vatican is one of only a handful of nations to have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Israel, which was angered by Francis's criticism of its conduct in Gaza, sent its ambassador to the Vatican.
The pope died on April 21 -- Easter Monday -- at age 88 following a stroke. The Vatican said around 250,000 people filed past his body laid out in a wooden coffin in St. Peter's Basilica over the three days leading up to the funeral.
The pope’s body was dressed in red robes, a bishop’s pointed miter, and his well-worn black shoes, including scuff marks on the toe. After the service at the Vatican, his body was brought to the Santa Maria Maggiore Basilica in Rome’s Esquilino neighborhood, which lies outside the Vatican, in a procession that was greeted by crowds of supporters.
During his papacy Francis, who was selected to lead the 1.4 billion-member Roman Catholic Church in 2013, sought to create a more open-minded Church. He often advocated for the poor and marginalized, while challenging wealthy nations to help migrants and address climate change.
"He was a simple and much-loved pastor in his archdiocese, who traveled far and wide, also by subway and bus," read a one-page account of his papacy placed inside his coffin before it was sealed. "He lived in an apartment and he prepared dinner alone, so he could feel like an ordinary person."
The secretive conclave is unlikely to begin before May 6 to allow cardinals time to hold regular meetings, sum each other up, and assess the state of the church, including its financial problems and ideological divisions.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, and AFP
Could Hungarian Cardinal Erdo Succeed Pope Francis?
With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the speculation about who will succeed him as head of the Holy See is already in full swing. One of the front-runners, at least according to bookmakers, is Peter Erdo, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the speculation about who will succeed him as head of the Holy See is already in full swing. One of the front-runners, at least according to bookmakers, is Peter Erdo, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
The 72-year-old Hungarian cardinal has held several prominent roles within the Catholic Church in recent decades and was a potential candidate to become the bishop of Rome back in 2013, when Francis ultimately was chosen.
So what chances does Erdo have to replace the Argentine? And perhaps more interestingly, what is his relationship with Hungary's increasingly authoritarian conservative prime minister, Viktor Orban?
Who Is Peter Erdo?
Make no mistake about it, Erdo is very much "papabile" -- a term used for candidates who are regarded as viable for the papacy.
Technically any baptized Catholic male is eligible, but ever since the 14th century only cardinals, the senior members of the clergy, have been selected. Currently there are 252 cardinals, but that number dwindles to 135 with voting power, as only those under 80 can cast a ballot.
Erdo could manage to secure the necessary two-thirds of the vote at the Papal Conclave that is set to commence in early May (no earlier than 16 days after the pope's passing, according to the current rules).
His cardinal resume is glittering. Between 2006 and 2016 he headed the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, a key organization representing Europe's Catholic bishops.
This is not without significance, as European cardinals still form the biggest voting bloc in the upcoming conclave. But it's not only the European credentials he has honed.
Heading the council meant that he has been in regular contact with the African, Asian, and Latin American equivalences, building up lots of links with the Global South, seen as the emerging powerhouses of the church.
The fact that he is fluent in both Italian and Latin -- two crucial languages for higher offices in this part of Rome -- and is a recognized expert in canonical law, which governs the way the Catholic Church is run, also puts him good stead among a select few.
Perhaps his crowning achievement is to have secured the International Eucharistic Congress for his hometown, Budapest, in 2021.
The congress, which typically takes place every four years, is a massive gathering of both clergy, including the pope, as well as common practitioners and involves big open-air masses.
This provided him with a perfect platform both for visibility and to secure the necessary contacts both within the Vatican and across the Catholic parishes of the world.
Perhaps his biggest strength, though, and the reason he might prevail in the end, is his pragmatism.
Although Erdo is seen as a conservative who, for example, openly speaks out against divorced Catholics receiving holy communion, he cooperated with the more progressive Francis and refrained from criticizing him openly, unlike others on the traditionalist flank.
The pope even tapped him to help organize special Vatican meetings on family issues, and Francis visited Hungary twice during his 12-year tenure.
Is Erdo Linked To Viktor Orban?
But what about Erdo's links to Hungary's ruling Fidesz party and Orban, who styles himself as a defender of Judeo-Christian values, notably against the EU institutions he claims are against both nations and Christianity in general?
The Hungarian state budget sponsors the Catholic Church, like many other recognized churches, in various ways and generously. It notably does this through direct support via financing of religious education, paying reparations for assets seized during the Communist regime, or simply bankrolling events like the above-mentioned International Eucharistic Congress.
Politically, during the migrant crisis that swept Europe in 2015, Erdo likened accepting migrants to facilitating human trafficking.
It was a statement that seemed more in line with the Hungarian prime minister's more combative approach than that of Pope Francis's more tolerant view on the matter.
Erdo did, however, shortly thereafter warn about turning religions against each other and questioned whether a continent really can be called Christian -- seemingly going against Orban's outspokenness about the so-called Islamization of Europe.
He seems to take the same pragmatic approach to the Hungarian government as he has with the various factions of the Catholic Church. While he himself has never openly endorsed the party, Catholic priests across the country have often told their congregations to vote for Fidesz.
Erdo has picked his fights carefully with Budapest. He has remained silent over some laws adopted in recent years but been vocal on others.
For example, he refused to openly criticize the regulation against homelessness passed in 2018 -- an issue that went against the teachings of Pope Francis.
When it came to the move by the Hungarian government to nationalize IVF clinics a year later, he did not hold out on criticism.
While most Vatican watchers still believe the Catholic Church now might select its first-ever African or Asian pope, a compromise candidate to stabilize the various fractions after the progressive and tumultuous years of Francis might very well be the primate of Hungary.
China To Lift EU Sanctions In Move To Repair Ties With Brussels
China and the European Parliament are in the "final stages" of discussions about removing sanctions on its lawmakers as part of a move to open the door for mended relations between Beijing and the bloc.
"Discussions with the Chinese authorities are continuing and in their final stages," a spokesperson for the European parliament told RFE/RL.
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola "will first inform group leaders once the Chinese authorities officially confirm that sanctions have been lifted," the spokesperson added. "It has always been the European Parliament's intention to have the sanctions lifted and resume relations with China."
The discussions to lift sanctions come as Beijing tries to make inroads against the backdrop of an unfolding trade war with US President Donald Trump's administration. In the face of 145 percent tariffs from the United States, China's largest export market, Beijing is now looking to improve relations with the European Union after years of strained ties with the 27-country bloc.
Beijing implemented the sanctions back in 2021 against several members of European Parliament (MEPs) after Brussels had used measures of its own on Chinese officials and entities because of human rights violations against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities, such as ethnic Kazakhs and Kyrgyz, in China's Xinjiang Province.
In response, the European parliament then froze the ratification of an EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) that was designed to deepen trade ties between the two massive markets.
A deal toward lifting the sanctions, which was first reported by German daily Suddeutsche Zeitung, has raised speculation that China and the EU are moving to normalize their ties as both navigate pressure from the Trump administration.
The EU and China are also set to hold a summit in Beijing in July.
An EU official who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal deliberations said that "it's correct that we are working on lifting the sanctions."
However, the official said that the move "has absolutely nothing to do with making any trade deal" and that the previously agreed CAI with Beijing faced obstacles back in 2021 before China sanctioned MEPs and that this "is even more true today."
The EU official added that talks with Beijing have been under way for several months and they predated tariffs deployed by Trump, which includes a 20 percent tariff for the EU, although this is currently suspended for 90 days to allow time to negotiate trade deals.
Noah Barkin, senior adviser at Rhodium Group, a consultancy, says Beijing is looking to use the removal of sanctions as a precursor to boosting trade ties with Brussels after years of tensions over Chinese support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and a record number of trade investigations launched by the European Commission looking into Chinese companies and government trade policies.
In an April 23 blog post, Barkin wrote that EU officials have told him "China hopes the removal of sanctions will lead to a revival of the CAI, sending a powerful signal about EU-China cooperation at a time when Beijing and Brussels are under intense pressure from a global trade war launched by President Donald Trump."
Barkin added that despite these expectations from China, he sees "the chances of a meaningful rapprochement between the EU and China as slim."
The EU sanctions on Chinese entities are to remain in place and it is unclear if China is planning to remove the blacklisting of all the MEPs and European entities targeted back in 2021 or only for some.
The list of MEPs includes Michael Gahler and Miriam Lexmann, lawmakers from Germany and Slovakia, Raphael Glucksmann from France, and Ilhan Kyuchyuk from Bulgaria.
Reinhard Butikofer, a German lawmaker and former leader of the European parliament's China delegation, has since left the body.
The Chinese blacklist also includes two EU-linked committees, three national parliamentarians, the Mercator Institute for China Studies, the Alliance of Democracies Foundation, and two academics researching China and Xinjiang.
Can the EU Extend Russia Sanctions Despite Hungary's Blackmail?
Extending sanctions against Russia has been one of the most pressing issues for the European Union -- especially this year. And Hungary's record of holding out against such sanctions has officials in Brussels worried about what will happen when the next extension deadline comes around, this time in July.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has for a long time voiced opposition to the EU's sanctions on the Kremlin and refused to agree on any new measures that target energy imports into the bloc from Russia.
These rollovers happen every six months and are split into two groups: sectoral sanctions -- such as import bans on various Russian goods -- and listings, meaning visa bans and asset freezes on more than 2,500 Russian individuals and firms.
The sectoral sanctions come up for renewal in January and July, while the listings are reviewed for prolongation in March and September. That adds up to four decisions each calendar year, all of which must be taken unanimously by the 27 EU member states.
In both the January sectoral renewal and the March listings rollover, Hungary -- long critical of EU sanctions on the Kremlin -- toyed with the idea of withholding approval. In the end, Budapest gave the green light, but not without securing some concessions from Brussels.
EU officials in Brussels told me that there is already concern about the upcoming extension of sectoral sanctions in July -- and what Budapest might demand.
The issue is further compounded by a broader question about the West's sanctions policy toward Moscow and the ongoing cease-fire talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States.
Sanctions relief, in some form, has been dangled as a potential carrot in front of the Kremlin -- at least from Washington's side -- even though the Europeans, who are not involved in the talks, have dismissed the idea for now.
The question is if that will still hold in the summer.
"Three months is a lifetime in politics, and by that time [US President Donald] Trump might be tired of Russia and ramping up sanctions instead," said one EU official I spoke to, though the official also admitted more EU capitals could be tempted to scale down.
The ever-present threat of a transatlantic trade war hitting EU economies might, according to diplomats, reignite calls to ease sanctions on things like Russian gas, aluminum, steel, and broader trade with Moscow.
What Is Europe's Plan B For Sanctions?
In order to circumvent a potential Hungarian veto this summer or prevent other member states from cherry-picking elements they want removed, the brightest legal minds in Brussels are now poring over legal texts to come up with a Plan B, in case Plan A -- a "clean" prolongation -- proves impossible in July.
And they might have found one.
The idea was already floated during the height of the listings rollover process in March. It remains untested, and it's questionable whether it’s fully legal.
It's also complicated, at least for those outside the "Brussels bubble."
But it looks like this: EU sanctions consist of two legal documents, a decision and a regulation. These texts are essentially identical and function together; member states agree and adopt a decision, which is then implemented as a regulation.
The regulation must be extended every six months by unanimity, while the decision does not. In fact, the decision remains in force unless a qualified majority votes to repeal it.
That would mean sanctions could stay in place without needing a formal extension, and it would sidestep Hungary's big opportunity to "blackmail" the rest of the club on this.
This is very much a fallback option -- and a temporary one, according to diplomats I've spoken with.
Hungary, and potentially others, would likely take the EU to court over it, as the approach would be unprecedented. As one diplomat put it: "Happening on very shaky legal grounds, as we always have used unanimity to prolong sanctions -- that's just the way this has always worked."
But there are other Plan Bs in the works as well. Perhaps the most obvious involves the European Commission proposing more sanctions in the coming weeks, which would mark the 17th sanctions package since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago.
But the trick is that these new sanctions wouldn't actually be adopted. Instead, they'd be "horse-traded" in exchange for Hungary agreeing to the general sanctions rollover.
In that scenario, Budapest could claim a win in that no new sanctions would be approved, while others would at least secure a prolongation of existing sanctions until the end of the year.
Another potential avenue would be to let the sanctions lapse, but to compensate for this by raising tariffs on Russia across all equivalent economic sectors. This type of decision wouldn't require unanimity, so it could fly, but what would the bloc do, for example, with all the export restrictions it has already imposed on Russia?
One option would be to let EU sanctions expire but replicate the same measures at the national level. However, far from all member states have national sanctions legislation and instead rely on a European framework. As a result, implementation would very soon become patchy and inconsistent across the bloc.
There is also another potential dilemma. Apart from sanctions extensions, most EU member states want the bloc to open accession talks with Ukraine in June at the very latest.
This means that another potential Hungarian veto would need to be overcome around the same time as the sanctions one.
It's possible some frozen EU funds that were withheld from Budapest over rule-of-law concerns may need to be heated up and sent its way to get both issues across the line.
Xi Eyes Inroads In Asia, Europe Amid Trump's Tariffs And US-China Tensions
Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for upholding multilateral trade as he landed in Vietnam as part of a high-stakes tour of Southeast Asia's most export-reliant economies as he looks to capitalize on global trade tensions with the United States.
The three-country visit, which begins with a two-day state visit to Vietnam on April 14, will also take Xi to Malaysia and Cambodia as he aims to emphasize China as a stable partner in contrast to the United States, which has imposed and then suspended punishing tariffs across the region and roiled global markets.
"There are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, and protectionism has no way out," Xi wrote in an article published in Vietnamese state media ahead of his visit, without mentioning the United States specifically.
The Chinese leader also urged strengthening coordination and cooperation through regional initiatives, such as the East Asia Cooperation and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, which he called necessary to "inject more stability and positive energy into a chaotic and intertwined world."
Beijing and Hanoi signed 45 agreements, although the contents of all the deals have not yet been disclosed. Xi expected to attend the launch ceremony for a new $8-billion railway project connecting Vietnam and China on April 15. The venture is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure development strategy.
While planned ahead of the announcement of global US tariffs, the tour now forms part of a broader Chinese charm offensive launched in the wake of a growing trade war that saw US President Donald Trump hit China with 145 percent tariffs and Beijing respond with a 125 percent tit-for-tat move on US goods.
Before receiving a 90-day reprieve on "reciprocal" US tariffs, Vietnam and Cambodia were hit with 46 percent and 49 percent tariffs, respectively, and both countries are walking a tightrope in their relations between China and the United States, both of which are important economic partners.
China is also looking for inroads in Europe amid the tariff tumult. Xi hosted Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing on April 11, where he said China and the European Union should "jointly oppose unilateral acts of bullying."
Similarly, Chinese premier Li Qiang spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week when they both emphasized the need for a "strong reformed trading system, free, fair, and founded on a level playing field," according to a readout.
"US tariffs were seen as truly existential, and while we're in a pause on the retaliatory tariffs, there's still this pervading sense of uncertainty around the threat of future tariffs," said Kaitlyn Garman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
"You can see short- and long-term scenarios where policy decisions will need to be assessed through the lens of the potential that this opens up another point of confrontation with the United States and risks an escalating trade war," she added.
Tariffs Ignite A Delicate Balancing Act in Southeast Asia
Trump has said his goal in unleashing tariffs is to eliminate the US trade deficit once and for all, which he says will help lure more manufacturing back to the United States, creating jobs at home and staunching the flow of US money to China.
But the tariffs also appear to be a negotiating tool for Washington to remake its trade relationships with much of the world.
Some 70 countries are said to currently be negotiating tariff relief with Washington, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week they should "approach China as a group" together with the United States.
Many countries across Asia, however, are also grappling with being slapped by soaring tariffs and debating how to respond in the event that they could be reinstated to their full level after the 90-day pause ends.
It's against this backdrop that Beijing is looking to gain ground with its strategic neighbors in Southeast Asia.
Vietnam and many others in the region have traditionally sought to avoid taking sides between China and the United States. Washington is a crucial export market for southeast Asia and a security partner that serves as a counterbalance to China's assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea.
However, trade in the region is closely intertwined with China, with countries from the regional bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), counting as the biggest recipient of Chinese exports last year, according to China's customs data.
Vietnam is in the process of looking to negotiate its trade relationship with the Trump administration and has already sent Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc to Washington, who promised to buy more US goods, including defense systems, as it looks to avoid the 46 percent levy being reintroduced.
Exports to the United States account for 30 percent of Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) and the country has received a boost in recent years as many companies moved there from China to skirt tariffs imposed by Washington.
China Looks For Diplomatic Inroads Elsewhere
Beijing has cast a wide net as it has looked to capitalize diplomatically in the aftermath of US tariffs.
Last week, China held video calls with Malaysia, as well as Saudi Arabia and South Africa. Xi also vowed to deepen China's strategic partnership with Indonesia in a call with that country's president, Prabowo Subianto, on April 13.
Brussels also announced that it plans to host an EU-China summit in July, and the bloc said last week that it agreed to restart talks with Beijing to settle a dispute over Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports, which the EU hit with tariffs in 2024.
Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez's recent visit to Beijing also made headlines when he called for Europe to review its relationship with China as it adapts to a new reality with the United States. Those comments were met with a rebuke from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who warned that cooperating with Beijing would be "cutting your own throat."
Analysts say a rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing is not in the cards given that China's support of Russia amid its war in Ukraine has deeply damaged relations with the bloc.
But Trump's tariffs threats, as well disagreements over US diplomacy over how to end the war in Ukraine, are also leading European governments to adjust their foreign policies, which could see them forge closer trading partnerships with other "like-minded" partners in Asia like India, Japan, and South Korea, and elsewhere in Europe with Norway and Britain.
"Europe will invest into robustly promoting trade through a like-minded partners approach," said Reinhard Butikofer, a former Member of the European Parliament. "The European Union will pursue a very active trade policy and try to strike new trade deals."
- By RFE/RL
US Envoy Says Any Deal With Iran Needs Proof Of Nuclear Enrichment Purposes
US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said on April 14 that any diplomatic agreement reached with Iran will be centered on details related to verification of the country's uranium enrichment and weapons programs.
"This is going to be much about verification on the enrichment program, and then ultimately verification on weaponization," Witkoff said in an interview on Fox News. "That includes missiles, the type of missiles that they have stockpiled there, and it includes the trigger for a bomb."
Tehran and Washington held the first round of nuclear talks over the weekend in Oman, both saying afterward that the talks were "positive" and "constructive."
The Iranian Foreign Ministry on April 14 said a second round of talks between the United States and Iran will be held in Oman on April 19.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei was quoted by Iranian state news agency IRNA as saying that it was decided that Muscat will continue to host the talks.
The comment contradicted a statement by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who said the talks would be held in Rome. Tajani said Italy received the request from the interested parties and announced Rome would be the venue.
Tehran also confirmed on April 14 that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Moscow ahead of the next round of talks.
Separately, Iran confirmed on April 13 that Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will travel to Iran on April 16.
Araqchi met Witkoff met briefly after the first round of talks ended, adding to optimism relations between the two countries have taken a step forward.
US President Donald Trump has said he wants to ensure Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful and wants a deal that leads to the lifting of sanctions that have battered its economy.
Trump has said that in the absence of a deal, there will be military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, with potential Israeli involvement.
Estimates suggest Iran could enrich sufficient uranium for a single bomb in less than a week and enough for several bombs within a month.
Meanwhile, the European Union on April 13 introduced sanctions on seven Iranian prison and judicial officials over Tehran's detention of nationals from the bloc.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the sanctions were in response to Iran's "state-sponsored hostage-taking" of European citizens.
On Iran's nuclear program, she said there was a need for a swift resolution because the October deadline to reimpose UN sanctions on Tehran is approaching.
European powers have warned Iran that they will trigger the 2015 nuclear deal's "snapback mechanism" to reimpose UN sanctions if it fails to reach a new deal with the United States.
With reporting by AP and AFP
- By Ray Furlong
Merz Announces New German Government, Cites Concerns About Russia, US Tariffs
Germany's Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz has announced that talks on forming a new coalition government have been completed, stating it would aim to take office in early May.
Merz noted the coalition talks took place amid "growing international political tensions," citing Russian President Vladimir Putin's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and US tariffs.
"The Russian aggressor, Putin, shows no willingness to end the war and to let the guns go silent. At the same time, economic uncertainties are growing enormously. Just this week, US government decisions have caused new turbulence," Merz said.
Merz will be the new German chancellor in a coalition with the Social Democrats, led by Lars Klingbeil, who is expected to be Finance Minister.
Support For Ukraine
As the new government was announced, its 144-page policy plan was published, pledging strong support for Ukraine.
"We will provide comprehensive support to Ukraine so that it can effectively defend itself against the Russian aggressor and assert itself in negotiations," it says.
Germany's outgoing government, which is led by the Social Democrats under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has been a key supplier of military and economic aid to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
Merz, as opposition leader, has often called on it to be faster and bolder in this. But it's not clear what this will mean in practice.
During a recent visit to Berlin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy voiced the hope that the new government would supply Taurus cruise missiles -- a longstanding request. Merz, at the time, was noncommittal.
The new government is expected to significantly boost Germany's defense budget, although it's not clear by exactly how much.
Even before taking office, Merz has pushed a constitutional reform through the German parliament that means strict limits on government debt no longer apply to defense spending.
"Our security is currently more endangered than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The greatest and most direct threat comes from Russia," says the new coalition's policy document. It adds that "Putin's pursuit of power threatens the rules-based international order."
Trump Tariffs
There's no mention of the US president in the document.
But when Merz was asked about US ties by a foreign journalist, he switched briefly to English to say, "The message to Donald Trump is: Germany is back on track, Germany will fulfil the obligations in terms of defense."
Asked about US tariffs, Merz said Europe should seek a joint response. His words came hours after EU countries agreed a range of countermeasures, including staggered tariffs on selected imports from the United States beginning on April 15.
Merz is a lifelong transatlantacist who also spent four years working for the US investment company BlackRock. After his election victory in February, amid a tense start in ties between Europe and the new US administration, he said Europe must secure "independence" from Washington in terms of defense.
Still, the coalition agreement says the relationship with Washington is of "paramount importance."
"In trade policy, we seek close cooperation with all of North America. The trans-Atlantic economic area offers the best conditions for success in global competition," it states.
Iran's Nuclear Program
The document also reaffirms Germany's commitment to working with Washington and other Western partners to end Iran's nuclear program.
"We support international sanctions against the Iranian regime and will push for the Revolutionary Guards to be put on the EU list of terror organizations," it says.
The new government's domestic priorities include promises to boost growth via economic reforms and to crackdown on illegal immigration.
The new coalition needs to be approved by Social Democrat party members and the senior leadership of the Christian Democrats, before a confidence vote in parliament.
- By RFE/RL
EU Slaps Tariffs On $23 Billion Of US Goods In Response To Trump's Trade Barrage
The European Union approved tariffs targeting around 21 billion euros ($23.2 billion) of US goods in retaliation for the 25 percent tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on the bloc's steel and aluminum exports.
A majority of the EU's 27 member states on April 9 voted in favor of the surcharges, some of which will take effect on April 15.
The products facing tariffs include diamonds, agricultural products, poultry, and motorcycles, as well as soybeans, which are a popular export of Louisiana, the US state that is home to Trump loyalist and House Speaker Mike Johnson.
The European Commission, the bloc's executive arm, said in a statement that the countermeasures can be suspended at any time "should the US agree to a fair and balanced negotiated outcome."
The move adds to the growing transatlantic trade war, with the United States also applying a universal 20 percent tariff on nearly all European exports as well as a separate 25 percent tariff on cars and some auto parts.
Trump has said he'll announce additional tariffs on lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceutical products. In total, Trump's new tariffs target around 380 billion euros' worth of EU goods.
The second round of EU tariffs will take effect on May 15, while a third wave is slated for December 1. Most of the targeted goods face a 25 percent tariff level, with a few categories set to face 10 percent.
EU leaders have voiced differing views in recent days about whether to exclude some items such as bourbon and wine. France and Italy, keen to avoid US countermeasures on their wine exports, appear to have won this battle.
Trump had threatened a 200 percent tariff on EU alcoholic drinks if US bourbon was hit.
Also excluded from Brussels' plans are items the EU relies on such as aircraft and parts, semiconductors, and fuel.
A decision not to put tariffs on pharmaceuticals matches the US approach. However, Trump has said separate tariffs will be imposed on the sector.
- By Ray Furlong and
- Merhat Sharipzhan
Trump Hits Back At China With 125 Percent Tariff After Beijing Imposes Hike On US Goods
In a swift response to China's decision to impose 84 percent tariffs on a wide range of US imports, President Donald Trump on April 9 announced that the United States will immediately raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 125 percent.
The move marks another escalation in a trade conflict between the world's two largest economies and sets the stage for what could become a prolonged economic standoff.
"Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World's Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately," Trump declared on social media. "At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted this had been Trump's strategy all along, telling reporters at the White House that Beijing has “shown themselves to the world as the bad actors.”
In an interview earlier on April 9 with Fox Business, Bessent condemned China's move, saying that it was unfortunate that the Chinese don't want to negotiate "because they are the worst offenders in the international trading system."
China's announcement of sweeping 84 percent tariffs on US imports initially sent shockwaves through global markets.
But the markets soared after Trump reversed his larger “reciprocal” tariffs on most of the world for 90 days in the face of recession fears.
Beijing's announcement of 84 percent tariffs came in response to Washington's 104 percent tariff on imports of Chinese goods. Beijing described the move as a defensive measure in response to what it called "persistent trade aggression" by the United States.
The United States imported $439 billion worth of goods from China last year with smartphones, laptops, lithium-ion batteries, games, and toys among the top items by value. The United States exported $144 billion worth of goods to China, leading to a trade deficit of $295 billion.
China's tariffs on US goods will come into force on April 10. Sectors targeted include American agricultural products, electronics, and industrial machinery -- key pillars of the US export economy.
"If the US insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end," China's Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement.
Wendong Zhang, a professor of applied economics and policy at Cornell University, said China cut its reliance on US goods, including agricultural products, following the previous trade war with the Trump administration in 2018-2019.
"This time around, Chinese leaders have the backing of a more supportive general public to stand up to the US and pivot to domestic consumption," Zhang said in e-mailed comments.
Trump's countermove included an overture to America's trading partners. He announced the 90-day pause on new tariffs for more than 75 countries that, he said, have been working constructively with US officials.
Fears over economic fallout from the tariffs had led to stock market collapses around the world. April 8 was the worst single-day fall since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 lost more than 10 percent of its values in three days of trading, and Asian markets have also seen steep declines.
These sell-offs continued in the wake of China's announcement on April 9, with London's FTSE 100 index and Frankfurt's Dax both making large losses.
Investors are even selling US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as a "safe haven" asset.
Paul Ashworth, an economist with the think tank Capital Economics, said that when the bond market began to weaken, it was only a matter of time before Trump folded on his high tariffs. During the 90-day pause all countries except China will have their reciprocal tariff rates set to the minimum 10 percent, he noted.
"Our working assumption now will be that, cowed by the market response, Trump will repeatedly extend the 'pause' meaning that this will end up looking a lot like the 10 percent universal tariff that he campaigned on," Ashworth said in a news release.
Trump has been unmoved by the market turmoil.
He has said his tariff policy is "medicine" and that he won't back down.
On April 8 Trump said partners were "dying" to negotiate new trade deals as a result of his trade measures.
"These countries are calling us up, kissing my ass," he told a Republican Party black-tie dinner.
The latest U.S.-China escalation occurred hours after European Union officials approved tariffs on approximately 21 billion euros ($23.2 billion) worth of U.S. goods in response to the 25 percent tariffs imposed by President Trump on the EU's steel and aluminum exports. On April 9, most of the EU's 27 member states voted in favor of the new tariffs, with some set to take effect on April 15.
EU Ramps Up Military Aid For Moldova
On April 9, European Union ambassadors will green-light the bloc's biggest-ever lethal military aid package to Moldova, worth 20 million euros.
The move is significant as the country is constitutionally neutral and the EU has previously only provided aid that was considered "nonlethal" such as military vehicles, air surveillance, and equipment boosting cybersecurity.
This changed last year, however, when Brussels provided 9 million euros for air-defense systems' short-range interceptors.
Now, the EU is more than doubling that in a reflection of what EU diplomats told me was the vulnerable situation Moldova is under with an increasingly belligerent and active Russia putting pressure on countries wanting to move closer to the West.
According to the proposal, seen by RFE/RL, the money will cover "eight short-range air-defense systems consisting of approximately eight launchers and approximately 24 missiles." The document notes that the implementation of this will be carried out by the Estonian Center for Defense Investments, which supplied Chisinau with equipment last year as well.
The proposal notes that "the proposed assistance measure will improve the performance and operational effectiveness of the Moldovan Armed Forces by replacing outdated Soviet-era equipment and/or establishing new capabilities."
Will Moldova Join The EU?
Moldova ambitiously aims to join the EU this decade, and accession talks are formally set to start in the coming months. The paper notes that the measures are also aimed at bringing Chisinau closer into the fold, adding that the actions are undertaken "with a view to strengthening the Republic of Moldova's capacities to participate in [EU] military common security and defense policy missions and operations, accelerating compliance with Union standards and interoperability."
The approval of these measures comes only a week after the same EU ambassadors gave a thumbs up to another package of financial assistance meant to supplement this one.
The other package, worth 40 million euros, is what the bloc calls nonlethal military aid. Of that sum, half will pay for an estimated 33 high-mobility tactical vehicles to replace old Soviet-type armored vehicles. The other 20 million euros is for what is called a short-range air-defense tactical integration system, essentially allowing the launchers and missiles provided in the "lethal" package to function smoothly.
The 60 million euros combined is the largest yearly amount heading to the small Eastern European republic since Brussels started this type of support in 2021.
The total figure since then will now reach 197 million euros, all coming under the European Peace Facility (EPF), an off-EU budget facility that has also allowed the EU as an entity to provide billions of euros in lethal assistance to Ukraine since the Russian full-scale invasion of the country over three years ago.
Is The US Distancing Itself From Moldova?
Another interesting aspect of the proposal is that there is a hint that the United States, under the new Trump administration, might step away from playing an active role in Moldova's defense sector. The paper notes, "In the past, the United States have been a major contributor in the defense sphere in Moldova, both regarding training and equipment support. Decisions by the new US administration on support to be provided in the future are pending."
It does add, however, that "according to preliminary feedback by the Moldovan Ministry of Defense, the potential downsizing of US training support would not affect equipment provided under [EPF] assistance measures."
What's interesting is that approval of the Moldova EPF was plain-sailing, with discussion among EU working groups on the issue proceeding without major hiccups.
This is in sharp contrast to the EPF requests for Ukraine that Hungary has blocked for nearly two years, as well as a recent new proposal for Armenia with which Budapest also took issue. Hungary delayed the first-ever EPF funding for Yerevan, worth 11 million euros, for several months last year before approving it and is now repeating the stalling tactic.
The new package, seen by RFE/RL, contains 20 million euros earmarked primarily for medical equipment for the Armenian armed forces. Like last year, EU diplomats are telling me Budapest is holding off approval by arguing that Azerbaijan, which enjoys close relations with the Fidesz-led Hungarian government, should be offered something similar.
- By Ray Furlong
Fresh Ukraine Talks To Highlight Divisions Between US And Europe
Another week of military planning and diplomacy will again underline the divisions between Washington and its European allies over policy on Ukraine, with two key meetings on successive days at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The United States will be absent from the first and also looks set to play no major role in the second, as European countries seek to forge ahead with their own plans.
The first gathering on April 10 will bring together Defense Ministers from the so-called coalition of the willing , which also includes non-European countries such as Canada and Australia.
The 30-nation group formed in early March following an explosive bust-up between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House. Among its chief goals is the creation of a military force to deploy to Ukraine following a cease-fire or peace deal.
A big problem for creating the force is that many nations, including Britain, have said that it would only be possible with a "US backstop," meaning air support, logistics, and intelligence.
So far, there's been no clear signal from the United States that it's ready to help.
Former NATO Supreme Commander in Europe, Philip Breedlove, told RFE/RL he did not believe there was the political will in Washington to do so -- but that Europe should push ahead with its plans anyway.
"If Mr. Putin looks across the fence and sees a large coalition of the willing, and that includes Great Britain, France, and Germany, he will have pause," he said.
It is unclear if Germany would take part in any military presence in Ukraine. The country is in political transition following elections in February, with talks on forming a new coalition government ongoing.
Britain and France have spearheaded the coalition, pledging to provide military muscle for the mission, and will be hosting the April 10 talks.
"I think Europe could do this by themselves," said Breedlove.
"The Russian army is beaten up. It desperately needs the United States to provide a peace time so that they can refit and refurb. It'll be the greatest gift we ever gave Russia to allow them to rebuild."
His remarks echo earlier comments by Ben Hodges , former commander of the US Army in Europe, who told RFE/RL last month that European forces had "women and men with good equipment" who could handle the job without US involvement.
But getting the US involved remains a key item on the agenda.
"The Europeans have to convince Trump to back the idea," Jamie Shea, who served in various senior NATO roles before retiring in 2018, told RFE/RL.
"It clearly is going to be a small force and not on the front lines…. The big issue is, will the force ever be deployed if there is no peace and the war continues?" Shea added.
The day after the coalition of the willing talks, the new transatlantic divide will be on display again at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, set up in 2022 by then-US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Austin chaired the meetings, aimed at coordinating military aid to Ukraine following Russia's full-scale invasion. But his successor, Pete Hegseth, has apparently decided to skip it. A Pentagon statement on April 4 said that he would be traveling to Panama.
"Leaders of our European allies should take primary responsibility for defense of the continent," said Hegseth in February.
"Values are important. But you can't shoot values. You can't shoot flags, and you can't shoot strong speeches. There is no replacement for hard power," he added, urging higher defense spending in Europe.
Hegseth was speaking the day after attending, but not chairing, the previous meeting of the Contact Group.
"Hegseth's absence would suggest that the US has no new package of support to announce," former NATO official Shea said.
"The United States is probably still tying the assistance to the outcome of negotiations on the minerals deal with Ukraine."
"I count Secretary Hegseth a friend personally. But I would tell you that I think it's a huge mistake that he doesn't go," said Breedlove.
"America needs to continue to show leadership in Europe."
Moldova's Army Gets A Boost From The EU
Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's new newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I'm drilling down on two issues: fresh military aid for Moldova and a conversation with the EU's Kaja Kallas.
Briefing #1: EU Ramps Up Military Aid For Moldova
What You Need To Know: On April 9, European Union ambassadors will green-light the bloc's biggest-ever lethal military aid package to Moldova, worth 20 million euros.
The move is significant as the country is constitutionally neutral and the EU has previously only provided aid that was considered "nonlethal" such as military vehicles, air surveillance, and equipment boosting cybersecurity.
This changed last year, however, when Brussels provided 9 million euros for air-defense systems' short-range interceptors.
Now, the EU is more than doubling that in a reflection of what EU diplomats told me was the vulnerable situation Moldova is under with an increasingly belligerent and active Russia putting pressure on countries wanting to move closer to the West.
According to the proposal, seen by RFE/RL, the money will cover "eight short-range air-defense systems consisting of approximately eight launchers and approximately 24 missiles." The document notes that the implementation of this will be carried out by the Estonian Center for Defense Investments, which supplied Chisinau with equipment last year as well.
Deep Background: The proposal notes that "the proposed assistance measure will improve the performance and operational effectiveness of the Moldovan Armed Forces by replacing outdated Soviet-era equipment and/or establishing new capabilities."
Moldova ambitiously aims to join the EU this decade, and accession talks are formally set to start in the coming months. The paper notes that the measures are also aimed at bringing Chisinau closer into the fold, adding that the actions are undertaken "with a view to strengthening the Republic of Moldova's capacities to participate in [EU] military common security and defense policy missions and operations, accelerating compliance with Union standards and interoperability."
The approval of these measures comes only a week after the same EU ambassadors gave a thumbs up to another package of financial assistance meant to supplement this one.
The other package, worth 40 million euros, is what the bloc calls nonlethal military aid. Of that sum, half will pay for an estimated 33 high-mobility tactical vehicles to replace old Soviet-type armored vehicles. The other 20 million euros is for what is called a short-range air-defense tactical integration system, essentially allowing the launchers and missiles provided in the "lethal" package to function smoothly.
Drilling Down
• The 60 million euros combined is the largest yearly amount heading to the small Eastern European republic since Brussels started this type of support in 2021.
• The total figure since then will now reach 197 million euros, all coming under the European Peace Facility (EPF), an off-EU budget facility that has also allowed the EU as an entity to provide billions of euros in lethal assistance to Ukraine since the Russian full-scale invasion of the country over three years ago.
• Another interesting aspect of the proposal is that there is a hint that the United States, under the new Trump administration,, might step away from playing an active role in Moldova's defense sector. The paper notes, "In the past, the United States have been a major contributor in the defense sphere in Moldova, both regarding training and equipment support. Decisions by the new US administration on support to be provided in the future are pending."
• It does add, however, that "according to preliminary feedback by the Moldovan Ministry of Defense, the potential downsizing of US training support would not affect equipment provided under [EPF] assistance measures."
• What's interesting is that approval of the Moldova EPF was plain-sailing, with discussion among EU working groups on the issue proceeding without major hiccups.
• This is in sharp contrast to the EPF requests for Ukraine that Hungary has blocked for nearly two years, as well as a recent new proposal for Armenia with which Budapest also took issue. Hungary delayed the first-ever EPF funding for Yerevan, worth 11 million euros, for several months last year before approving it and is now repeating the stalling tactic.
• The new package, seen by RFE/RL, contains 20 million euros earmarked primarily for medical equipment for the Armenian armed forces. Like last year, EU diplomats are telling me Budapest is holding off approval by arguing that Azerbaijan, which enjoys close relations with the Fidesz-led Hungarian government, should be offered something similar.
Briefing #2: The Kallas Conversation
What You Need To Know: It's fair to say Kaja Kallas has had a tough start as the EU foreign policy chief. Four months into the job and the club's diplomats are already complaining to the media about how the Estonian is handling the bloc's top diplomatic job.
Now, Brussels is famous for bureaucrats privately berating high-ranking colleagues and officials. It's the veritable fuel that at least keeps the EU media circles spinning, and I've heard plenty of it myself in conversation with my sources -- just as I encountered similar things about her predecessors.
Some of the criticisms of Kallas are warranted, while others are not.
Not securing a bilateral agreement with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio when going to the United States in March was a blow and demonstrated that Brussels hadn't done enough diplomatic footwork ahead of the trip.
Saying the EU wants Ukraine to win the war against Russia instead of the agreed-upon EU line of "supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes" was to northern and eastern member states a sign of ambition to reshape the narrative.
To others, however, it stoked fears that Kallas only cares about the bloc's eastern neighborhood and that she's obsessed with Russia -- a charge one often hears in Brussels against any Baltic politician.
In truth, she has spent much more time in the south than in the east, traveling several times to the bloc's southern rim, including Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Palestine. Her biggest diplomatic win so far has arguably been securing the EU's Syria sanctions rollback despite some initial howls from EU capitals.
Deep Background: Another charge has been her failure to get some of her initiatives over the line, but this largely has to do with some EU capitals working against her.
Take the push to get fresh money for Ukraine if the United States suddenly halts funding. Her proposal was largely based on EU member states chipping in based on their economic size, so via gross national income (GNI). Both Paris and Rome shot this down, mainly because it would mean they would have to pay up more than they have so far when it comes to Ukraine military aid.
Then there's Kallas's push to sanction the Georgian political leadership even though both Hungary and Slovakia had indicated in lower diplomatic circles in Brussels that this was unacceptable for them, denying her the needed consensus.
One of the more plausible explanations I got for this is that she is the first prime minister to become EU foreign policy chief, while the others have all been foreign ministers and have had some experience of how the EU foreign affairs council works.
They work differently from EU summits, where heads of government assemble in Brussels and where Kallas has cut her teeth. At the latter, there tend to be deals, negotiations and negotiations to be had -- often dragging on for hours, even days. At ministerials, things tend to be structured, carefully choreographed and most items agreed upon beforehand.
Drilling Down
• What's next for Kallas? In a wide-ranging interview with RFE/RL last week on the sidelines of the European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg, she offered me some hints about a number of issues.
• Her views on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, which she has inherited from her predecessors, was perhaps what I found the most interesting. The dialogue, initiated in 2011, is an attempt to normalize relations between Serbia and Kosovo but it last happened at the leader level nearly two years ago.
• "We have to keep the end goal in mind, the normalization of their relationship, so that they could both proceed in their European path. So maybe it's the dialogue, or maybe it is another tool. I'm willing to look into it," she told me, hinting that a new format for the talks may be under way.
• What that format can be is anyone's guess at the moment, but something tells me her focus on the Western Balkans will grow in the coming months with the aim of speeding up the region's EU integration. She is currently on a trip to Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Montenegro and will be in Serbia in May. Developments here are worth watching.
• What also became clear is her limits on doing something new in Georgia: "What we have done is to help the NGOs and civil society, so the funds that we had for the government, we have redirected them to the civil society to help them to really go on the European path."
• Yet, she admitted that no EU restrictive measures are on the table going forward: "You know, we have to have the agreement by 27 countries. And that is a problem here."
• Dealing with Hungary will be a challenge. In EU foreign policy, things are decided via unanimity, meaning that Budapest be a headache for the foreseeable future. She did, however, manage to get the bloc's Russia sanctions extended recently despite loud Hungarian protests.
• But it is not only on sanctions policy. Take Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Hungary last week. He's been indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), and Budapest should have tried to arrest him. Instead, he was welcomed with open arms and the country announced its intention to leave the court.
• When I asked Kallas if she fears something similar will happen if the Russian President Vladimir Putin, another ICC-indictee, comes to EU territory, her answer was worryingly deflective: "The problem is that the EU is not the member of the convention, it's the member states. If a person comes to their territory, they also have to implement the ICC decisions."
• Therein lies very much her problem: She is beholden to the whims of all EU member states, with Hungary the most problematic at the moment. Being a former EU prime minister, she understands that. But it will frustrate her at every turn she makes.
Looking Ahead
The NATO HQ in Brussels will host two meetings this week that aren't strictly related to the military alliance.
On April 10, defense ministers of the "coalition of the willing" -- a gathering of largely European nations led by Britain and France -- are assembling to continue work on "a reassurance force" for Ukraine after a potential permanent cease-fire has been agreed.
The day after the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (known as the Ramstein group), chaired this time by Britain and Germany, will come together to look at more military contributions to Ukraine.
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on Twitter @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition subscribe here.
What 'Unprecedented' US Tariffs Mean For Europe
US President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement to raise tariffs to the highest level in more than 100 years has sent stock markets tumbling and shaken the global economy.
"This is unprecedented in the last century in terms of the scale of tariffs, the number of countries hit, [and] just the sheer level of these tariffs," Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told RFE/RL.
"I think we're going to see shocks that you can't fully anticipate because we've never seen this sort of high level of tariffs in the era of globalization," she said.
That worldwide fallout could hit the European Union particularly hard, economists who spoke to RFE/RL said.
The direct impact of Trump's 20 percent levy on EU products has sparked fears of coming inflation and about the economic outlook for the 27-country bloc's embattled manufacturers, who are already reeling from US levies on cars and steel. Experts say other major sectors, such as Europe's pharmaceutical industry, which exports heavily to the US market, could also be hard-hit.
"These pharmaceutical firms will try to sell into the US as much as they can," Reid I'Anson, a senior economist at the trade intelligence firm Kpler, told RFE/RL. "They may drop their prices a little bit to try and stay competitive, but it is very likely that outright demand in the US for European goods will decline. That will flow through to a weaker economic environment in Europe."
How Hard Will Trump's Tariffs Hit Europe?
Tariffs are essentially a tax paid by an importer that are usually passed on to distributors, wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately, to consumers.
About 60 countries that run the largest trade surpluses with the United States -- including key allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea -- now face extra tariffs higher than the flat 10 percent levy announcement, with dozens of others facing tariffs that could extend to 50 percent or more in total.
During his announcement in the White House's Rose Garden, Trump said the basic 10 percent tariff on almost all countries takes effect on April 5, while the higher so-called reciprocal tariff rates would apply starting April 9.
While economists say the tariff regime announced by Trump is set to make levied goods in the country more expensive, it will also affect industries in Europe and elsewhere that rely on exporting to the US market.
"European exporters selling things to the United States are going to have to pay a higher cost, which is passed on to American consumers, but it's going to affect their ability to sell things [and] they're going to lose market share," Matthew Goodman, director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told RFE/RL.
Brussels and individual European governments are still deciding how to react and further negotiations could take place, but the prospect of retaliatory tariffs placed on US products is real, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying the bloc is "now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail."
Goodman says any retaliation from Europe will raise costs for European consumers and would also raise inflation and slow growth in the United States.
"That has big implications for everybody in the world because [the United States is] the largest economy in the world, and if our economy slows, then everybody gets hit," he said.
CNAS's Kilcrease, who is a former deputy assistant US trade representative, says Trump's tariffs could also have knock-on effects for Europe, including higher prices and even job losses for key industries.
"I'd actually be quite worried about jobs impacts and about investment impacts because you just don't have that customer anymore, or it's just going to be much harder with a 20 percent tariff to sell into that market," she said.
How Will The Global Impact Of Trump's Tariffs Affect Europe?
The new US tariffs could also have global fallout, affecting the price of key products that rely on global supply chains and reorienting the flow of international trade in unexpected ways.
The price of an iPhone, for instance, could increase by 30 to 40 percent in the United States, according to projections by the financial firm Rosenblatt Securities.
The cheapest iPhone 16 model is currently listed at $799 but could cost as much as $1,142 if Apple decided to pass the cost on to consumers. A more expensive iPhone 16 Pro Max that currently retails at $1,599 could rise to nearly $2,300. Similar percentage increases are projected for other markets.
"This is going to have ripple effects, and it's going to feed through the many different things that go into an iPhone, from the semiconductors made in Taiwan to the glass that is made in Japan, to the assembly of the iPhone in China," said Goodman. "All these things are going to be hit with tariffs, and so the price is ultimately going to be passed on to consumers, both in Europe and in the United States."
Washington's escalating trade war with Beijing will also come with worldwide repercussions that will hit Europe directly and indirectly.
China announced on April 4 that it will impose additional tariffs of 34 percent on imports from the United States in retaliation for duties of the same amount unveiled by Trump. The "reciprocal" tariff placed on China is on top of a 20 percent levy already imposed by the Trump administration.
Trump also targeted countries through which Chinese companies have been diverting products to the US market, among them Vietnam, which faces a new tariff of 46 percent.
As Kpler's I'Anson explains, the United States accounts for around 25 percent of Chinese exports, but with that market now saddled with tariffs, Chinese exporters will have to cut prices and reorient those products to other markets.
This could in turn lead to a flood of discounted Chinese imports around the world, something Brussels has said it is already tracking and preparing countermeasures to protect its manufacturers from.
"It's very possible that there could be this flood of goods coming into Europe in a way that causes real economic problems for Europeans," Kilcrease said. "It may cause another drag on the competitiveness of European firms who are making those same sorts of goods."
- By RFE/RL
Hundreds Mourn At Farewell For Four US Soldiers Who Died In Lithuania
Hundreds of Lithuanians gathered in Vilnius on April 3 to honor four American soldiers who died during a training exercise in Lithuania, as a procession carrying their coffins passed through the city's Cathedral Square.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausada, who attended the ceremony, expressed his condolences to the families of the soldiers and said the recovery operations, supported by international cooperation, were "the best proof of NATO's invincibility."
“Their readiness to be with us, as they say, in a difficult neighborhood, is the best proof of who our friends are today," Nauseda told reporters.
Defense Minister Davile Sakaliene and the archbishop of Vilnius were among those present at the ceremony.
Sakaliene emphasized that the joint rescue efforts by soldiers from Lithuania, the United States, Germany, Poland, and Estonia demonstrated "unity" in times of crisis.
"We consider US soldiers in Lithuania as our own. The farewell ceremony once again demonstrated our society's solidarity, respect, and gratitude to the Americans," the Lithuanian Defense Ministry said in a post on Facebook.
The last US soldier missing in Lithuania was found dead on April 1, ending a massive weeklong search for the four service members whose armored vehicle was pulled from a swampy training area, the US military said.
The bodies of the first three soldiers from the US Army's 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, and their M88A2 Hercules armored recovery vehicle had been retrieved on March 31.
The soldiers were on a tactical training exercise when they went missing.
US Major General Curtis Taylor, commanding general of the 1st Armored Division, earlier expressed thanks to everyone who contributed to the recovery operation.
"We cannot thank our allies and fellow service members enough, especially Lithuanians, who spared no resource in support of this mission," he said.
Lithuania, a NATO and EU member, hosts more than 1,000 US troops stationed in the Baltic nation on a rotational basis.