Iran
Persian Might: How Strong Is Iran's Military?
With the possibility of a major conflict brewing with the United States since the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, the capabilities of the Iranian military are being sharply scrutinized.
So just how strong are the Islamic republic's armed forces?
The answer to that question hinges largely on what strategic goals Iran pursues.
Tehran’s main goal is to project its influence and protect its interests throughout the Middle East or to at least prevent adversaries, like Saudi Arabia, from gaining the upper hand.
To accomplish that, Tehran has done everything possible to deter and harass the enormous contingents of U.S. forces deployed in 10 countries throughout the region with the ultimate objective being to push them out.
In pursuing that goal, Iran will likely avoid a full-blown war because its military is no match for the American armed forces and Washington's allies stationed in the Middle East, experts say.
No Nukes, Lots Of Proxies
The Iranians have a well-publicized and highly controversial nuclear program, but do not currently have the capability to make a nuclear weapon.
"They have a ballistic-missile program but no long-range missiles that can reach the United States," The Atlantic noted.
It added that Tehran lacks any major friends in the region: "Iran has decent relations with Russia and China but no stalwart, great-power allies."
As arguably one of the world’s most-isolated countries, Iran has mainly embarked on a strategy of proxy wars or conducting asymmetrical strikes aimed at exploiting the vulnerabilities of American and U.S.-led forces.
The Iranian military -- which is the eighth largest in the world based on active personnel -- is suited to pursue a strategy of asymmetrical warfare.
Modest Military Budget
Iran's defense budget in 2018 was more than $13 billion, ranking it 18th in the world in terms of military expenditures, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
But Tehran lagged far behind regional foes such as Saudi Arabia, which spent some $70 billion, and Israel, at $18.5 billion (the United States is without rival at more than $700 billion).
In addition, Iranian military expenditures declined by 9.5 percent in 2018 compared to the previous year due to massive economic problems caused by U.S. sanctions, a strategy that Washington refers to as "maximum pressure."
But Iran’s military establishment, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), does not depend merely on the state budget for its funding, according to the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
"The military establishment controls [one-fifth] of the market value of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and owns thousands of other companies, all of which generate revenue for the armed forces," the FDD reported. "Additionally, the IRGC controls a significant portion of Iran’s underground economy."
Biggest In The Middle East
In terms of overall military strength, the Iranian armed forces rank 14th in the world out of 137 countries that are ranked in 2019 by Global Firepower and Business Insider.
With some 523,000 active-duty forces and another 350,000 reserves, Iran has the largest standing military in the Middle East.
The active forces are comprised of 350,000 in the regular army and at least 150,000 in the IRGC, which has the most powerful forces in the Iranian military.
In a sign of its importance, IRGC Commander in Chief Hossein Salami reports directly to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
An Army Within An Army
The IRGC itself is made up of five subgroups.
One of those groups, the Quds Force, was led for decades by Soleimani until his assassination in a U.S. drone strike on January 3 -- the event that put Iran and the United States in their current quandary.
The Quds Force is mostly tasked with overseas operations, predominantly in the Middle East.
Estimates of its exact number of forces vary.
But Jack Watling, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told NBC News that it is a “divisional strength military formation” of around 17,000 to 21,000 members.
Perhaps more importantly, the extraterritorial use of the Quds Force provides for the enlistment of various Shi'ite militias that number, according to The Guardian, up to 200,000 fighters. The militias operate in at least five countries in the region.
The English daily adds that these pro-Iranian proxy armies that engage "in a 'grey zone' of conflict that maintains hostilities below the threshold of state-on-state warfare."
Another group within the IRCG structure is the Basij militia, a paramilitary force with 90,000 members mobilized to enforce order, which includes quelling dissent within the country, such as the nationwide anti-government protests in November that ended with hundreds of demonstrators killed and thousands injured.
Like many related institutions in Iran, the Basij was first formed as a volunteer force during the Iran-Iraq War. But it “has since become an entrenched, and feared, part of the state,” The Washington Post reported.
Also operating under the IRCG umbrella are the 20,000 service personnel in the naval forces, which rely first and foremost on waves of armed patrol boats in the Strait of Hormuz.
With more than 20 percent of the world's oil trade moving through the strait, it is the world's most-important oil-trade route and the scene of several confrontations between Iranian vessels and foreign-flagged tankers in 2019.
Although smaller in number, the IRCG is more powerful than the regular army because of the bifurcated nature of the Iranian state. For that reason, relations between the government and the IRCG have always been strained.
Tanking Up
Iran has some 1,634 tanks, ranking 18th out of 137 countries surveyed. That number is buttressed by about 2,345 armored combat vehicles and 1,900 rocket launchers.
The large tank force is, however, mostly made up of older models and completely outdated tanks. Only the new model Karrar, which was supposed to be delivered to the Iranian military in 2018, can compare with some of the better tanks in the world. Although the Karrar looks much like the well-known Russian T-90, Iran has rejected suggestions there was any collaboration with Russia in its production.
In The Navy
The Iranian Navy is, comparatively, a modest force that has neither an aircraft carrier nor a destroyer.
Tehran's navy does possess six frigates, three corvettes, 34 submarines, and 88 patrol vessels. The submarine's arsenal contains the Russian-made "kilo" class, which are called "black holes" because they are inaudible.
The 'Fast Flyers'
With some 509 aircrafts, the Iranian Air Force lags far behind -- both in terms of quantity and quality -- regional adversaries Saudi Arabia and Israel, which can boast of having 848 and 595 state-of-the-art airplanes, respectively, in their fleets, The National Interest reported.
That doesn't include a healthy stable of U.S. planes throughout the region.
Much of Iran's air force dates from the shah era or is left over from dictator Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Air Force, which moved many of its planes to Iran during the 1991 Persian Gulf War to avoid their destruction by U.S.-led forces.
American-made F-4, F-5, and F-14 fighters built in the 1970s remain the pillar of the Iranian Air Force, which is nicknamed "Tizparvazan" (the Fast Flyers).
Following the 2015 nuclear deal -- which lifted tough international sanctions against Iran and boosted its economy -- the country had a brief opportunity to upgrade its air force.
France's Mirage 2000 was an option, but Tehran ultimately decided against it because it was more familiar with its American- and Russian-made planes.
Iran also had a chance to buy as many as 30 sophisticated Su-30 fighters from Russia, but opted not to, The National Interest reported.
“This is probably because the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps paramilitary has never been comfortable with the regular Iranian military becoming too powerful,” the U.S. magazine concluded.
Missile Reliance
Crippled by the U.S.-imposed sanctions that have reduced its oil exports to a trickle, Iran's military equipment imports have dropped significantly in recent years.
Iran's arms imports decreased drastically in 2018 and the country's total imports for its military from 2009 to 2018 were just 3.5 percent of Saudi Arabia's total imports during the same period.
Tehran has had to therefore increasingly depend on the development of domestic technologies for its military needs, including cheaper hardware imports that come mainly from Russia and China.
Iran also relies on the development of missiles in order to overcome the disadvantage of having less military equipment that is often of a lower quality than its regional foes and, certainly, the United States and other Western countries.
Iran is, however, recognized as having the most developed short- and medium-range missile system in the region.
Among other missiles, it has 300-kilometer range Shahab 1 missiles, moving Washington to install a Patriot antiaircraft system in some neighboring countries to counter possible missile threats from Iran.
Tehran has also worked on the development of intercontinental missiles, although those programs were suspended after Iran agreed to the historic nuclear agreement with six world powers in 2015 that put curbs on its nuclear program.
Following the withdrawal of the United States from the treaty in 2018, Iran began to gradually suspend its adherence to the provisions of the treaty and ultimately announced after Soleimani's killing that it was abandoning all limits in the agreement.
That development leaves open the possibility of Tehran restoring efforts to develop intercontinental missiles.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a Shahab 3 missile with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers could hit Israel and is widely considered to be Tehran’s deterrent of last resort.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies also reports that Iran has 32 batteries of Russia's S-300 air-defense system.
Not To Forget: Cyberwarfare And Drones
Finally, Iran also has a full complement of drones that it has used in operations in both Iraq and against Israel. It is also believed that an Iranian drone was used in September to attack Saudi oil facilities.
The IRGC also boasts a cyberattack unit that is known to have been responsible for several attacks abroad.
After the assassination of Soleimani, many figured Iran could respond with a massive cyberattack against a U.S. entity, a fear that continues, according to The New York Times.
Three-Pronged Strategy?
Most analysts have predicted that Iran would not venture into an open conflict with the United States over Soleimani's killing, but would instead use its assets to conduct asymmetrical operations to try and harm U.S. forces or American interests in the Middle East.
Despite having already responded with a missile attack against the two U.S. military bases in Iraq, the threat of lower-level attacks using other strategies remains.
In such a potential confrontation, Tehran would count on "three legs," as Deutsche Welle pointed out.
One leg is "defense before the border" -- namely the operation of Quds Force units outside Iran to attack U.S. forces.
The other legs of such a strategy are the use of long-range missiles to strike further away U.S. targets or an attempt to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and send global energy markets into a death spiral.
In the event of a conflict involving action in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can count on the world's fourth-largest oil reserves of more than 150 billion barrels to sustain it during such a blockage.
Tehran's concern of a land invasion of its territory is probably quite low, as according to some Western estimates quoted by The Guardian, such an incursion would require “an improbable 1.6 million troops” in order to prevent an Iraq-style counterinsurgency from emerging against U.S. forces.
With U.S. President Donald Trump seemingly de-escalating after Iran's January 8 missile attack caused no American casualties, few people envision Washington entertaining a scenario involving ground troops.
U.S. Troops In The Region
There are estimated to be more than 50,000 U.S. troops deployed in the Middle East, according to numerous sources. Here is a rough breakdown:
'Twilight War'
Another possible option for Iran is the status quo.
Historian David Crist has dubbed the four decades of the shadow battle that the United States and Iran have been locked in since the 1979 Islamic Revolution to be a ''twilight war."
As The Atlantic noted, Iran has tended to follow a certain blueprint during this time: “compensate for its inferior military capabilities relative to the United States by waging wide-ranging proxy warfare that stops short of direct conflict, allows it to maintain plausible deniability, and is carefully calibrated to advance Iranian interests at a low cost and with minimal risk."
Soleimani's assassination by U.S. forces and the Iranian missile response hitting American bases in Iraq is the first open confrontation between the two countries since Iranian protesters invaded the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979.
Although the current situation has de-escalated for the moment, it is still fraught with the risk of becoming more serious and disrupting the "twilight war" of strained but controlled relations that have existed between the two countries for so long.
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- By RFE/RL
Carter's Troubled Presidency Turned Into Decades Of Service (Video)
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter has died at age 100. His turbulent single term as U.S. president was marred by the 444-day Iran hostage crisis but was followed by decades of global philanthropy, diplomacy, and the Nobel Peace Prize.
- By RFE/RL
Jimmy Carter, Nobel Laureate Whose Presidency Was Marred By Iran Hostage Crisis, Dies Aged 100
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was marred by the 444-day Iran hostage crisis, has died at age 100 after receiving hospice care for almost two years.
"Jimmy Carter, 39th president of the United States and winner of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, died peacefully Sunday, December 29, at his home in Plains, Georgia, surrounded by his family," the Carter Center in his home state of Georgia said in a statement.
U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement that "America and the world lost an extraordinary leader, statesman, and humanitarian."
Biden declared January 9, the day Carter's funeral will be held in Washington, D.C., as a national day of mourning.
Though his presidency was marked by his failure to rein in rampant inflation, revive the economy, and his inability to free dozens of Americans held captive at an embassy in the Iranian capital, Tehran, his life after office was celebrated for his humanitarian work around the world.
"God gives us the capacity for choice. We can choose to alleviate suffering. We can choose to work together for peace. We can make these changes -- and we must," Carter said in his speech upon accepting the Nobel Peace Prize. He was the first former U.S. president to win the award.
Former President Barack Obama praised Carter's "decency," saying in a tribute the onetime peanut farmer who was raised in poverty "taught all of us what it means to live a life of grace, dignity, justice, and service."
President-elect Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that "the challenges Jimmy faced as president came at a pivotal time for our country and he did everything in his power to improve the lives of all Americans."
The iconic Empire State Building in New York City was lit up in red, white, and blue to honor Carter.
Carter, a one-term leader, is remembered for having brokered a peace deal between Israel and Egypt and later received the Nobel Peace Prize for his humanitarian work and efforts to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts.
But it was the Iranian hostage crisis that would come to define Carter's presidency from 1977 to 1981.
The Islamic Revolution in 1979 toppled the U.S.-backed shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and brought to power a group of clerics led by exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Carter granted the ailing shah political asylum, to the anger of many Iranians.
In late 1979, a group of hard-line Iranian students who were believed to have had the tacit support of Khomeini stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took 52 Americans hostage. They demanded the return of the shah and an apology for past actions by the United States in Iran.
444 Days: Looking Back At The U.S.-Iran Hostage Crisis
Carter said the United States could not give in to the hostage-takers, and the crisis dragged on for over a year.
"It's vital to the United States and to every other nation that the lives of diplomatic personnel and other citizens abroad be protected, and that we refuse to permit the use of terrorism, and the seizure and the holding of hostages, to impose political demands,” he said.
“No one should underestimate the resolve of the American government and the American people in this matter."
With negotiations with the Iranians proving fruitless, Carter ordered U.S. Special Forces to try to rescue the American hostages in April 1980. The mission ended in disaster, and eight U.S. soldiers died in an accident caused by equipment failure.
Carter announced the failed rescue mission to the nation: "I share the disappointment of the American people that this rescue mission was not successful. And I also share the grief of our nation because we had Americans who were casualties in this effort to seek freedom for their fellow citizens who have been held hostage for so long.
"But I also share a deep pride in the commitment and courage and the integrity and the competence and determination of those who went on this mission."
The Iranian hostage crisis -- and Carter's inability to resolve it -- dominated the news in the United States throughout 1980, a presidential election year.
He was easily defeated in his reelection bid by Ronald Reagan, a former Hollywood actor who had energized the Republican party with his smooth appearance and supply-side economic policies.
In a final insult to Carter, Iran decided to release the hostages on January 20, 1981, the day Carter left office and Reagan was inaugurated as president.
One of Carter's first goals after becoming president was to work on a second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, known as SALT II, with the Soviet Union. The treaty was designed to further limit the number of nuclear weapons held by both countries.
Negotiating the treaty with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev was difficult because of Carter's persistent criticism of Moscow's human rights record. But in June 1979 the two leaders signed SALT II. The U.S. Senate did not ratify the treaty following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979, but its terms were honored by both sides.
In response to the Soviet invasion, the president announced what came to be known as the Carter Doctrine -- that the United States would defend its interests in the Persian Gulf with military force if necessary. The United States also boycotted the 1980 Olympic Games in Moscow.
"I have given notice that the United States will not attend the Moscow Olympics unless the Soviet invasion forces are withdrawn from Afghanistan before February 20,” said Carter at the time. “That deadline is tomorrow, and it will not be changed."
Though his term in office is often characterized as a failure, Carter's presidency had its share of triumphs.
He established an effective national energy policy and encouraged the creation of 8 million new jobs, although at the cost of high inflation. He also improved the operation of the U.S. federal government through reform of the civil service.
Carter's greatest achievement as U.S. president was the 1978 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, brokered at the Camp David presidential retreat. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.
Carter's wife, Rosalynn, died in November 2023, at age 96.
- By RFE/RL
Jimmy Carter, Whose Presidency Was Marred By Iran Hostage Crisis, Dies Aged 100
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was marred by the 444-day Iran hostage crisis, has died at age 100.
"Jimmy Carter, 39th president of the United States and winner of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, died peacefully Sunday, December 29, at his home in Plains, Georgia, surrounded by his family," the Carter Center in his home state of Georgia said in a statement.
U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement that “America and the world lost an extraordinary leader, statesman and humanitarian.”
Biden said he will order a state funeral to be held in Washington, D.C., although he did not set a date as of yet.
President-elect Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that “the challenges Jimmy faced as president came at a pivotal time for our country and he did everything in his power to improve the lives of all Americans.”
“For that, we all owe him a debt of gratitude.”
Human Rights Watch said in a statement that "Carter set a powerful example for world leaders to make human rights a priority, and he continued to fight for human rights after he left office."
The iconic Empire State Building in New York City was lit up in red, white, and blue to honor Carter.
Carter, a one-term leader, is also remembered for having brokered a peace deal between Israel and Egypt and later received the Nobel Peace Prize for his humanitarian work and efforts to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts.
But it was the Iranian hostage crisis that would come to define Carter's presidency from 1977 to 1981.
The Islamic Revolution in 1979 toppled the U.S.-backed shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and brought to power a group of clerics led by exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Carter granted the ailing shah political asylum, to the anger of many Iranians.
In late 1979, a group of hardline Iranian students who were believed to have had the tacit support of Khomeini stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took 52 Americans hostage. They demanded the return of the shah and an apology for past actions by the United States in Iran.
444 Days: Looking Back At The U.S.-Iran Hostage Crisis
Carter said the United States could not give in to the hostage-takers, and the crisis dragged on for over a year.
"It's vital to the United States and to every other nation that the lives of diplomatic personnel and other citizens abroad be protected, and that we refuse to permit the use of terrorism, and the seizure and the holding of hostages, to impose political demands,” he said.
“No one should underestimate the resolve of the American government and the American people in this matter."
With negotiations with the Iranians proving fruitless, Carter ordered U.S. Special Forces to try to rescue the American hostages in April 1980. The mission ended in disaster, and eight U.S. soldiers died in an accident caused by equipment failure.
Carter announced the failed rescue mission to the nation: "I share the disappointment of the American people that this rescue mission was not successful. And I also share the grief of our nation because we had Americans who were casualties in this effort to seek freedom for their fellow citizens who have been held hostage for so long. But I also share a deep pride in the commitment and courage and the integrity and the competence and determination of those who went on this mission."
The Iranian hostage crisis -- and Carter's inability to resolve it -- dominated the news in the United States throughout 1980, a presidential election year.
He was easily defeated in his reelection bid by Ronald Reagan, a former Hollywood actor who had energized the Republican party with his smooth appearance and supply-side economic policies.
In a final insult to Carter, Iran decided to release the hostages on January 20, 1981, the day Carter left office and Reagan was inaugurated as president.
One of Carter's first goals after becoming president was to work on a second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, known as SALT II, with the Soviet Union. The treaty was designed to further limit the number of nuclear weapons held by both countries.
Negotiating the treaty with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev was difficult because of Carter's persistent criticism of Moscow's human rights record. But in June 1979 the two leaders signed SALT II. The U.S. Senate did not ratify the treaty following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979, but its terms were honored by both sides.
In response to the Soviet invasion, the president announced what came to be known as the Carter Doctrine -- that the United States would defend its interests in the Persian Gulf with military force if necessary. The United States also boycotted the 1980 Olympic Games in Moscow.
"I have given notice that the United States will not attend the Moscow Olympics unless the Soviet invasion forces are withdrawn from Afghanistan before February 20,” said Carter at the time. “That deadline is tomorrow, and it will not be changed."
Though his term in office is often characterized as a failure, Carter's presidency had its share of triumphs.
He established an effective national energy policy and encouraged the creation of 8 million new jobs, although at the cost of high inflation. He also improved the operation of the U.S. federal government through reform of the civil service.
Carter's greatest achievement as U.S. president was the 1978 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, brokered at the Camp David presidential retreat. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.
Carter's wife, Rosalynn, died in November 2023, at age 96.
- By RFE/RL
Syria's De Facto Leader Wants To Maintain 'Respectful' Ties With Iran, Russia
New Syrian de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa told the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television channel that he wants relations with Iran and Russia, but he insisted any ties must be based on mutual "respect."
Russia and Iran were major allies of Syria under the regime of President Bashar al-Assad until the totalitarian leader was ousted by rebels in early December.
The West is closely watching the new ruler's actions, including the depth of any future ties with Tehran and Moscow.
"Syria cannot continue without relations with an important regional country like Iran," Sharaa told Al Arabiya in a wide-ranging interview on December 29.
But relations "must be based on respect for the sovereignty of both countries and noninterference in the affairs of both countries," he added.
Sharaa urged Tehran to rethink its regional policies and interventions and pointed out that opposition forces protected Iranian positions during the fighting to oust Assad, even though rebels knew Iran was a major backer of the president.
Sharaa said he had expected positive overtures from Iran following these actions but said they have not been forthcoming.
Sharaa, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, said that while he expects Moscow to withdraw its forces from Syria, he also spoke of "deep strategic interests" with the "second most powerful country in the world."
"We don't want Russia to exit Syria in a way that undermines its relationship with our country,” he told Al-Arabiya, without providing details.
"All of Syria's arms are of Russian origin, and many power plants are managed by Russian experts.... We do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish," he said.
According to flight data analyzed by RFE/RL, Russia is reducing its military footprint in Syria and shifting some of its assets from the Middle Eastern country to Africa.
To offset the potential loss of its air base in Hmeimim and naval base in Tartus, Russia appears to be increasing its presence in Libya, Mali, and Sudan, although experts say the loss of Syrian bases is a major blow to the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, Sharaa also said that organizing elections in the country could take up to four years and that a new constitution could require three years to be finalized.
The leader expressed hope that the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump -- set to take office on January 20 -- would lift sanctions on his country.
"We hope the incoming Trump administration will not follow the policy of its predecessor," Sharaa said.
The rebels who ousted Assad were led by Sharaa's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist group, a U.S. and EU-designated terrorist organization.
Sharaa has publicly pledged to adopt moderate policies regarding women's rights, national reconciliation, and relations with the international community, although world leaders say they remain wary of the new rulers pending concrete actions.
- By RFE/RL,
- Kaisa Alliksaar,
- Kian Sharifi and
- Will Tizard
Why Iran And The U.A.E. Fight Over 3 Tiny Islands
Major oil exporters in the Persian Gulf region are keenly focused on who has control of a small archipelago in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz. Both Iran and the United Arab Emirates have made claims.
- By RFE/RL
Italian Podcaster Detained In Tehran For 'Journalistic Activities'
Italy’s Foreign Ministry said journalist Cecilia Sala, who was in Iran to carry out "journalistic activities," has been detained by Tehran police authorities.
The ministry said in a statement on December 27 that Sala, who has a podcast called Stories that covers life in places around the world, was detained on December 19.
It gave no reason for the detention, but said in a statement that the ambassador from Italy's embassy in Tehran had paid a consular visit "to verify the conditions and state of detention of Sala."
"The family was informed of the results of the consular visit. Previously, Sala had the opportunity to make two phone calls with her relatives," it said.
Sala posted a podcast from Tehran on December 17 about patriarchy in the Iranian capital.
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries.
Earlier this month, Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda, was handed a 10-year sentence by Tehran's Revolutionary Court on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."
Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work. He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.
His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.
Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.
Iran is among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index.
The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
- By RFE/RL
Iranian President To Visit Moscow For Talks In January
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian is scheduled to travel to Russia on January 17, state-controlled media in Iran and Russia reported on December 26. Quoting Iranian Ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali, Iran's Tasnim news agency said that “the president will visit Russia on January 17 and a cooperation agreement between the two countries will be signed during the visit." Russia and Iran both are under severe financial sanctions imposed by Western nations and have stepped up bilateral cooperation on many fronts in recent years. The West has accused Iran of providing weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine. Tehran has denied the allegations despite evidence widespread use of Iranian-made drones in the war.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Strikes Huthis At Yemen Airport, Prompting Iranian Condemnation
Israel carried out large-scale air strikes on the main airport in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, on December 26 as it steps up attacks on the Iranian-backed Huthi rebels in what Tehran called a “violation” of peace and security.
Huthi rebels said three people were killed and 14 were injured or missing following the Israeli attacks on the airport and other sites in Yemen, including port facilities.
"Fighter jets conducted intelligence-based strikes on military targets belonging to the Huthi terrorist regime on the western coast and inland Yemen," the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
The attacks followed recent rocket launches by the Huthi fighters against the Tel Aviv area, although little damage was reported.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli strikes on Yemen, calling them "aggressions" that it claimed were "a clear violation of international peace and security."
It said they represented "an undeniable crime against the heroic and noble people of Yemen," who had "not spared any effort to support the oppressed people of Palestine."
The Israeli military has said air strikes in Yemen are targeting Huthi sites that have been used to receive Iranian weapons, which are then often transported to other Tehran-linked groups in the Mideast -- mainly Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hamas has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union, while Hezbollah has also been deemed a terrorist group by Washington. The EU blacklists its military arm but not its political wing. The U.S. State Department designated the Huthis as a terrorist group at the start of this year.
Hamas and Hezbollah have been severely weakened following massive Israeli military strikes on their respective sites in Gaza and Lebanon, and most of their leaders have been killed in Israel's military response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes would continue against the Huthi rebels, who have also targeted shipping in the Red Sea, claiming they are in solidarity of Hamas fighters in Gaza.
"We are determined to cut this branch of terrorism from the Iranian axis of evil. We will continue until the job is done," Netanyahu said in a video statement.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus -- head of the World Health Organization who was at the Sanaa airport during the Israeli attack -- said he was safe but that "one of our plane's crew members was injured.”
With reporting by Reuters, dpa, and AFP
Iran's Cyberspace Council Votes To Lift Ban On WhatsApp, Google Play
Iran’s council on safeguarding the Internet has voted to lift bans on the WhatsApp messenger and the Google Play apps, state media reported.
The Supreme Cyberspace Council voted unanimously in favor of lifting restrictions on some foreign-owned applications, including WhatsApp and Google Play, during a meeting on December 24, state news agency IRNA said.
"Today, we took the first step toward lifting Internet restrictions with unanimity and consensus," Communications Minister Sattar Hashemi said on X.
It was not immediately clear when the decision would come into force. The Supreme Cyberspace Council holds its meetings behind closed doors and its members' votes are not made public.
IRNA reported that the members of the council voted to lift restrictions while at the same time "emphasizing the importance of rule-of-law governance in cyberspace."
The two apps were restricted in 2022 following the Woman, Life, Freedom protests that were severely suppressed.
The Supreme Cyberspace Council, which was established by order of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has also emphasized "supporting domestic platforms."
On the eve of the council’s meeting, Mehr News Agency published a document indicating that, based on a Supreme Cyberspace Council plan, an "advertising support package" is to be allocated to domestic messaging services.
The document states that the “first phase” of the council’s plan will include “building infrastructure” for domestic content platforms.
While the bans on WhatsApp and Google Play were lifted by the council, other popular social media platforms including Facebook, X, Telegram, and YouTube remain blocked in Iran.
Critics of the restrictions have argued that the controls have been costly for the country.
"The restrictions have achieved nothing but anger and added costs to people's lives," social and political activist Ali Rabiei said on X on December 24.
Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif added that President Masud Pezeshkian believes in removing restrictions and does not consider the bans to be in the interest of the people and the country.
“All experts also believe that this issue is not beneficial to the country's security," Zarif said on December 24.
Others, however, warned against lifting the restrictions.
The reformist Shargh daily reported on December 24 that 136 lawmakers in Iran's 290-member parliament sent a letter to the council saying the move would be a "gift” to Iran's enemies.
The lawmakers called for allowing access to restricted online platforms only "if they are committed to the values of Islamic society and comply with the laws of" Iran.
With reporting by AFP and Reuters
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- UGC
Another Female Singer Challenges Iran's Dress Code Onstage
Another female singer has challenged Iran's strict Islamic dress code by posting video of herself performing without a head scarf. Hana Kamkar is the second singer to publish a concert video that defies the country's clerical establishment. Iranian musical icon Googoosh has voiced her support and expects more female singers to join the onstage revolt.
- By Kian Sharifi
Turkey Replacing Iran As The Dominant Foreign Player In Syria
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at the hands of rebels, including Ankara-backed factions, has effectively made Turkey the dominant foreign actor in Syria at the expense of Iran and its ally Russia.
Turkey and Iran have competed for years for influence in the South Caucasus, and this rivalry appears to have now extended to the Levant.
"The Islamic republic has had significant misgivings about Turkish influence in Syria, be it economic, political, or military, long before the fall of Assad. But with the loss of Iran's sole state ally in the region, these concerns are set to be magnified exponentially," said Behnam Taleblu, an Iran analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
Still, experts say Turkey's rising profile in Syria to the detriment of Iran does not necessarily mean Ankara-Tehran relations will be significantly impacted.
What Is Turkey After?
Since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Iran and Russia backed Assad while Turkey supported rebel groups opposed to his rule.
Iran needed Assad to remain in power so that it could use Syria as a staging ground to fund and arm its proxies and partners, especially the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
For Russia, Assad's rule meant Moscow could maintain its Hmeimim air base and naval base in Tartus, which gave it easier access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea.
Ankara wanted a government in Syria more aligned with its regional vision and policies, especially those that would restrain Kurdish groups in northeastern Syria. A coalition of Kurdish parties, including the Democratic Union Party (PYD), heads the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.
PYD's armed wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG), leads the U.S-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
"Turkey has had three core concerns in Syria: fighting the YPG/PYD, enabling the return of Syrian refugees to Syria, and preventing further refugee flows into Turkey," said Daria Isachenko, a Turkey expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Assad's downfall on December 8 has stemmed the influx of refugees into Turkey, but the "first two concerns remain," Isachenko added.
Syria is now effectively ruled by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey, Iran's rival.
Isachenko says Turkey's growing influence in Syria could further strengthen its position in the Mediterranean Sea if Ankara signs a Libya-style maritime deal with the new authorities in Damascus.
The Road Ahead
Turkey's growth in stature and Iran's weakened position in Syria could have ramifications for developments in the South Caucasus, where Iran, Russia, and Turkey vie for influence.
Experts say while the Astana talks -- a format sponsored by the three countries to end the conflict in Syria -- may be dead, it still served as a platform for managing different interests.
"Coordination and consultation on conflict management between Turkey and Iran as well as Russia on the Middle East and the South Caucasus should not be ruled out," Isachenko said.
She adds that even in Syria, Turkey and Iran may find some of their interests aligned, such as finding a common adversary in Israel, which has moved into Syrian territory since the fall of Assad.
Still, some argue that Tehran will seek to undermine Turkey in Syria in the hopes of returning the country into its so-called axis of resistance -- Iran's loose network of regional allies and proxies.
"The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will look for ways to claw back influence in Syria," said Taleblu of FDD.
"Downtrodden, disposed, and spurned local actors are easy to co-opt, particularly in states where central authority is weak."
The Kurdish Question
U.S. support for the Kurdish-led SDF has weakened in recent years due to a combination of factors, including the withdrawal of a majority of U.S. troops in 2018 and 2019 and pressure from Washington's NATO ally, Turkey.
Ankara, which launched an incursion into northern Syria in 2019 against Kurdish forces, is now in a strong position to further challenge the Kurds, experts say.
Since Assad's fall, Ankara-backed rebel groups have clashed with Kurdish forces and seized the previously Kurdish-controlled cities of Manbij and Tarafat near the border with Turkey.
Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an Iraqi Kurdistan-based analyst who has co-authored books on Syrian Kurds, says the presence of the 900 remaining U.S. troops might offer some protection to the Kurds but the situation remains precarious.
"The new administration in Damascus likely will prefer relations with Turkey over the SDF," he said. "The situation is difficult for the Kurds unless they reach an agreement with HTS."
HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, wants to unify all armed groups in Syria under one banner. But if the SDF were to join, it would effectively end Kurdish autonomy in Syria, Wilgenburg says.
Iran's Supreme Leader Calls On Syrians To Resist Rebel Government
The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has called on Syrians to resist the emerging rebel-led government after the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad, saying the uprising was orchestrated by the West.
Speaking in an address on December 22, Khamenei said Syrians, especially the country's youth, "should stand with strong will against those who designed and those who implemented the insecurity."
Assad left the country in the late hours of December 8 after the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey -- overran government forces in a blitz offensive.
While Assad was granted political asylum in Russia by President Vladimir Putin after more than five decades of iron-fisted rule by his family, the HTS has since moved quickly to establish an interim government, and its leader, Riad al-Asaad, has said he is confident the factions that helped topple Assad will unite as one force.
HTS and the transitional government have insisted the rights of all Syrians will be protected, but Khamenei said he believes a group aligned with the Islamic republic's government would end up prevailing in Syria.
However, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus on December 22.
Details of the meeting were not immediately released, but Turkey has long been seen as a backer of HTS as it looked to remove Assad.
The toppling of Assad was seen by many as another blow to Tehran, which has seen regional groups aligned with it -- parts of the so-called axis of resistance -- suffer major setbacks in the past 14 months.
Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has been decimated by Israel, which launched a war against the group in the Gaza Strip and Hamas fighters in October 2023 crossed into Israel and killed 1,200 people while taking another 250 hostage.
That conflict spread to Lebanon, home of the Tehran-backed Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Israel has severely weakened Hezbollah -- killing its longtime leader and many of its top officials -- after the group launched attacks on Israel that it said was in support of Hamas.
A U.S.-brokered deal to end hostilities in Lebanon took effect last month.
Khamenei downplayed the links to Iran, saying they have fought against Israel on their own beliefs.
"They keep saying that the Islamic republic lost its proxy forces in the region. This is another mistake. The Islamic republic does not have a proxy forces," he said.
“If one day we plan to take action, we do not need proxy force,” he added.
- By Kian Sharifi
Cold Snap Exposes Extent Of Iran's Energy Crisis
Despite sitting atop the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, energy shortages have become a feature of winters in Iran.
Iran grapples with air pollution all year, but air quality significantly worsens during winter when power plants are forced to burn low-quality heavy fuel oil -- mazut -- to compensate for the lack of gas.
A rare cold snap in recent weeks has exposed the extent of Iran's struggles to meet the rising demand for gas, with school classes forced to go online and government offices ordered shut to conserve energy.
Highlighting the severity of the crisis, President Masud Pezeshkian last week appealed to the public to turn their thermostats down by 2 degrees Celsius to help address the energy deficit.
Other government officials have followed suit with similar pleas, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi telling his staff to wear warmer clothes at work.
Temperatures have plunged as low as -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of Iran in recent days.
"The situation is bad due to very cold weather, especially in Tehran and the northern provinces, but it's exacerbated by the structural trend toward runaway consumption over the last two to three years without an accompanying increase in production," said Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
Old Infrastructure, Poor Management
Energy subsidies in Iran mean energy bills are generally low, which has promoted overconsumption.
But making matters worse is a devastating combination of mismanagement and outdated infrastructure that has significantly contributed to Iran's inability to meet the rising demand for gas.
Gas flaring -- the burning of gas that comes out of the ground when drilling for oil -- is a major problem. Iran does not have the technology to collect it, so it is wastefully burned.
World Bank data shows that Iran ranked second globally in 2023 in terms of the volume of gas flaring, burning around 21 billion cubic meters. That is more than double that of the United States, which ranked fourth, and enough to supply 40 percent of the gas demand in neighboring Turkey, which has a population similar to Iran's.
Iran's major gas reserves are in the south, southwest, and offshore, so an expansive and powerful grid is needed to transport gas to the north. To do that, Iran needs to invest heavily both in expanding its aging infrastructure and increasing production, said Brew.
"But that's difficult to do without investment constrained by both a weak economy and international sanctions," he added.
The United States has imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear and missile programs.
The sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy and dented Tehran's ability to sell oil and gas, its key exports. They have also prevented Iran from accessing foreign investment and technology.
The South Pars Field in the Persian Gulf is the world's largest natural gas field, and Iran shares it with Qatar, where it is referred to as the North Dome.
While Qatar has signed lucrative deals with international energy companies to develop its section of the gas field, Iran has had to rely on lackluster domestic capabilities to exploit it.
Iran's seemingly never-ending struggle with gas shortages in winter has led many to question the rationale behind exporting gas to neighboring Iraq and Turkey.
"Given how constrained it is by sanctions, Iran has to find and exploit any means of increasing exports, which increases pressure on supply at home," Brew said.
The stand-off with the West over Iran's nuclear program means the odds of sanctions being lifted are slim, and with Donald Trump returning to the White House in January, the pressure will increase even further, experts said.
U.S. Condemns Tehran Court's 10-Year Sentence For Iranian-American Journalist
The U.S. State Department condemned the 10-year sentence handed down by Iranian authorities against Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
"We strongly condemn this sentencing and call for his immediate release and the release of all political prisoners in Iran," a spokesperson told Radio Farda on December 17.
"The Iranian government has repeatedly suppressed press freedom through threats, intimidation, detentions, forced confessions, and the use of violence against journalists in Iran," the spokesperson added.
According to court documents sent to the journalist's lawyer on December 10 and subsequently reviewed by RFE/RL, Valizadeh was sentenced by Tehran's Revolutionary Court on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."
In addition to the prison term, Valizadeh was banned for two years from living in Tehran and adjacent provinces, from leaving the country, and from joining political or social organizations following the completion of his sentence.
Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work.
He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.
His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.
Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.
The State Department earlier condemned Valizadeh's detention, calling it "unjust" and inconsistent with international legal standards.
Press freedom organizations, including Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, urged Iranian authorities to release Valizadeh immediately.
RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus also called for Valizadeh to be released, saying the charges against him, his conviction, and sentence were unjust.
"Time and again, the Iranian regime has attempted to spread its malign influence around the world, trampling on human rights at every opportunity," Capus said in a statement. "Clearly, this regime feels threatened by the forces of freedom, including independent journalism."
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.
Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.
Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
Iran Shuts Down Government Offices, Schools Amid Freezing Temperatures, Gas Shortages
Iran closed government offices and shifted school classes online on December 16 due to freezing temperatures and a severe gas shortage. Northern provinces have experienced temperatures plunging to -20°C (-4°F) in recent days, accompanied by widespread gas supply disruptions. President Masud Pezeshkian called on citizens last week to lower their thermostats by 2 degrees Celsius to conserve energy. Other government officials have made similar pleas online. Despite sitting on the world’s second-largest proven gas reserves, Iran’s aging infrastructure has struggled to meet increasing demand during winter. To read the full story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
Iran Detains Singer Who Performed Without Head Scarf
Iranian police released singer Parastoo Ahmadi in the early hours of December 15 following a brief detention after she performed without the mandatory head scarf, her lawyer has confirmed.
Ahmadi caused a stir on social media earlier this week after recording a performance with her hair uncovered and wearing a dress. The performance, recorded with a crew of male musicians, was uploaded to YouTube.
The police on December 14 claimed she was released after a "briefing session" but a source close to the family told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that she remained in custody. Her lawyer Milad Panahipur also denied the police claim, writing on X that the authorities were "lying" about her release.
The following day, Panahipur confirmed Ahmadi, who had been detained in her home province of Mazandaran, was released at 3 in the morning.
Two of her bandmates, Soheil Faqih-Nasri and Ehsan Beyraqdar, were also detained briefly.
Ahmadi’s Instagram account is no longer accessible, but her YouTube account remains active.
The video of her performance, dubbed "an imaginary concert" because female performers cannot sing solo in front of an audience, has received around 1.6 million views on YouTube since it was uploaded on December 11.
On December 12, the authorities said legal proceedings had been launched against Ahmadi and her bandmates for the "illegal concert."
Ahmadi, who gained prominence during the 2022 nationwide protests after singing a song in support of demonstrators, has been widely praised for her performance.
On social media, many have hailed her for fighting "gender apartheid" and showing "bravery, resilience, and love."
A rising number of women have been flouting the mandatory hijab in public since the 2022 protests, which gave rise to the Women, Life, Freedom movement.
The authorities have tried to crack down and recently passed a law enhancing the enforcement of the hijab by introducing hefty fines, restricting access to basic services, and lengthy prison sentences.
The new hijab and chastity law, which has been widely criticized by even conservative figures, is scheduled to go into effect this month, but at least two lawmakers have said its implementation has been postponed by the Supreme National Security Council.
Iranian-American Journalist Reza Valizadeh Sentenced To 10 Years In Prison In Iran
An Iranian court has sentenced Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda, to 10 years in prison on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."
According to court documents sent to the journalist’s lawyer on December 10 and subsequently reviewed by RFE/RL, Valizadeh was sentenced by Judge Iman Afshari of Tehran’s Revolutionary Court, Branch 26.
In addition to the prison term, Valizadeh was banned for two years following the completion of his sentence from living in Tehran and adjacent provinces, from leaving the country, and from joining political or social organizations.
Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work. He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.
His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.
Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.
The U.S. State Department earlier condemned Valizadeh’s detention, calling it "unjust" and inconsistent with international legal standards. Press freedom organizations, including Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, urged Iranian authorities to release Valizadeh immediately.
RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus also called for Valizadeh to be released, saying the charges against him, his conviction, and sentence were unjust.
"Time and again, the Iranian regime has attempted to spread its malign influence around the world, trampling on human rights at every opportunity," Capus said in a staetment. "Clearly, this regime feels threatened by the forces of freedom, including independent journalism."
Valizadeh remains in Tehran’s Evin prison under severe restrictions, with limited access to legal representation and family.
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.
Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.
Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
Husband Of Iranian Rights Lawyer Arrested In Tehran
The husband of prominent Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh has been detained by security forces, according to their daughter.
Mehraveh Khandan said on Instagram that her father, Reza Khandan, was arrested on December 13 at her home in Tehran. The circumstances of Khandan's arrest and the charges against him were not known.
Mohammad Moghimi, a lawyer, said on X that the reason for the arrest was likely related to a six-year prison sentence in a case in which he represented Reza Khandan and activist Farhad Meysami.
The sentence against Reza Khandan was handed down in February 2019 by Tehran's Revolutionary Court. Meysami also faced a similar sentence in the case.
Reza Khandan had been charged with "assembly and collusion against national security," "propaganda against the state," and "spreading and promoting unveiling in society."
The sentence against Reza Khandan also banned him from membership in political parties and groups, leaving the country, and using the Internet and other media and press activities.
Sotoudeh, a vocal advocate for numerous activists, has been arrested several times since 2010. Her detention has included periods of solitary confinement, highlighting the challenges faced by human rights defenders in Iran.
Sotoudeh was arrested last year during the funeral of 17-year-old Armita Garavand, who died of injuries suffered in an alleged confrontation with Iran's morality police in the Tehran subway over a violation of Iran’s compulsory head scarf law.
Reza Khandan said at the time of his wife's arrest in October 2023 that she started a hunger and medication strike after she was severely beaten when she was taken into custody. Sotoudeh was released about two weeks later.
- By RFE/RL,
- Kian Sharifi,
- Kaisa Alliksaar and
- Will Tizard
Is IS Coming Back After Assad's Fall?
Syria's most notorious extremist group has lost power over the last decade but has still managed to hit international targets. Some worry IS could make a comeback in the power vacuum following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
Iranian Leader Blames Assad's Downfall On U.S., Israel, And Turkey
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in his first public comments since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted, accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating the rebel uprising that toppled the regime over the weekend.
Khamenei on December 11 also implicitly blamed Turkey for the lightning push of Syrian rebels who reached Damascus from their strongholds in the northwest with little resistance.
"It should not be doubted that what happened in Syria was the product of a joint American and Zionist plot," he said.
"Yes, a neighboring government of Syria plays, played, and is playing a clear role…but the main conspirator, mastermind, and command center are in America and the Zionist regime," Khamenei added.
The U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey -- ousted Assad on December 8, less than two weeks after launching their offensive.
Syria under Assad served as a crucial part of a land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, which was considered the logistical backbone of the so-called axis of resistance -- Iran's loose network of regional proxies and allies.
Iran spent billions of dollars and sent military advisers to Syria to ensure Assad remained in power when civil war broke out in 2011.
Russia -- where the ousted Syrian leader has been granted political asylum -- also backed Assad, while Turkey has supported rebel groups who aimed to topple the regime.
A Khamenei adviser once described Syria as the "golden ring" in the chain connecting Iran to its Lebanese partner, Hezbollah. With the ring broken and Hezbollah's capabilities degraded after a devastating war with Israel, experts say the axis has become severely weak.
Khamenei said only "ignorant and uninformed analysts" would assess that the axis has become weak and vowed that its reach "will expand across the region more than before."
Reza Alijani, an Iranian political analyst based in France, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Khamenei's comments were more "trash talk" than anything else.
"The axis may not have been defeated, but it has suffered a serious blow and the Islamic republics arms in the region have been deal major hits," he said.
Alijani argued that factions within the Islamic republic's core support base may be starting to question Khamenei's policies and vision after the recent setbacks, which he said is a cause for concern among the clerical establishment's top brass.
With reporting by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda
China In Eurasia Briefing: What The Fall Of Assad Means For Beijing
Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and I'm back after a reporting trip in Taiwan. I'm off again for the holidays but will be back here with another newsletter at the end of the year.
Here's what I'm following right now.
Beijing Watches Assad Fall
The full effects from the swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is still playing out on the ground, but his sudden fall is set to shake up the Middle East and beyond.
Here's what it means for China.
Finding Perspective: China has been aligned with Assad since Syria's civil war began in 2011 but largely through its close ties to Russia and Iran, which backed the Syrian leader.
At the United Nations, Beijing has often voted with Moscow, blocking condemnations of Assad as well as cross-border aid. Beijing supported the Assad regime with eight vetoes at the UN, which is half the total vetoes China has ever used.
Beijing significantly reduced its presence in Syria amid the conflict, though it kept building close ties with Assad, eventually culminating in his state visit to China in 2023.
Chinese investment in Syria was scarce, and beyond a strategic partnership agreement and a pledge to join the Belt and Road Initiative there has been essentially no Chinese investment in Syria and no major contracts with Chinese firms in the country since 2010.
So why did Beijing throw its weight behind Assad?
Revisiting The Arab Spring: For Beijing, the biggest issue was the symbolism and appearance of stability that Assad represented, especially given he was first threatened by a popular uprising that then set the Syrian civil war in motion.
The spread of revolutions in the Arab world in 2011 was alarming for the Chinese Communist Party.
Inside China at the time, popular grumbling with corruption at various levels of government was common, and the party was concerned the protests across the Middle East could inspire its own population, especially given simmering tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang at the time.
Added to that was the rise of the Islamic State in Syria. The war led to thousands of Uyghurs, the predominantly Muslim group from western China, traveling to Syria to fight against the Syrian government.
Many of those fighters said they were there to learn how to use weapons and then return to China, and fears over the return of battle-hardened fighters to Xinjiang was one of the pretexts Xi expressed to top party brass to launch the crackdown and camp system in western China that targeted the Uyghur population, according to a set of leaked internal government documents obtained by the New York Times.
Why It Matters: From this logic, Beijing's support for Assad makes sense, but it's a big bet that hasn't paid off.
The fall of Assad is also a reflection of the weakened regional power of two of its main partners: Iran and Russia.
Their inability to prop up Assad indicates they've been consumed by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, which may be a concern for Beijing looking ahead.
The rapid collapse of the Syrian government is also an unwelcome message at home for Beijing, which was reflected in the way Chinese media covered the events for Chinese viewers.
As images circulated around the world of jubilant crowds and the toppling of statues, Chinese state media's coverage on CCTV mostly centered around a fixed live shot of Damascus without a crowd in sight.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. China Flexes Its Muscles Around Taiwan
Beijing said it is taking "necessary measures" to defend the country's sovereignty and will not tolerate "separatist" activities, as Taiwan reported another rise in Chinese warplanes and ships near the island.
The Details: Taiwan's Defense Ministry said China was deploying its largest navy fleet in regional waters in nearly three decades, posing a threat to Taiwan that is more pronounced than previous Chinese war games.
China, which views Taiwan as its own territory, had been expected to launch drills to express its anger at President Lai Ching-te's tour of the Pacific that ended last week, which included stopovers in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam.
Without any announcement from China on military drills, Taiwan officials are calling the ongoing activity a training exercise and warned it could be used to further violate Taiwan's territorial boundaries.
China, which views Lai as a separatist, held major military exercises around Taiwan following his inauguration in May and his National Day speech in October. It also held a major drill after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 2022.
2. The California Connection
A Chinese company that owns a California electronics distributor has sent hundreds of shipments of restricted dual-use technology to Russia since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, including to sanctioned companies with ties to the Russian military, my colleagues Mike Eckel and Mark Krutov report.
What You Need To Know: The findings further highlight the difficulty Western countries have had in trying to choke off the Russian military's access to Western technology for use in its weapons and operations as its war on Ukraine continues.
At least one component manufactured by the company, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Company Limited, was found in a Russian weapons guidance system recovered from the battlefield in Ukraine, according to a public database maintained by the Ukrainian military.
Yangjie Technology, located in the city of Yangzhou northwest of Shanghai, has sent more than 200 shipments of specific goods to Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to customs records obtained by C4ADS, a Washington-based, nonprofit data-analysis and global-research organization.
The listed contents of those shipments -- totaling at least 238 -- included electronic components categorized as "high-priority" by the United States due to their potential use in Russian weapons systems, according to the data obtained by C4ADS and shared with RFE/RL, which independently corroborated more than 150 such shipments.
3. China And Serbia Eye New Cooperation On Extraditions
Serbia has extradited five Chinese citizens in the past five years, according to data obtained by my colleague Mila Manojlovic from RFE/RL's Balkan Service.
What It Means: The data shows extraditions are already taking place. That cooperation is also set to grow as Serbia's Justice Ministry prepares to submit to parliament a draft extradition law with China that, if passed, would expand the scope of cooperation between Beijing and Belgrade.
That extradition deal, which would regulate the bilateral extradition of citizens charged with crimes, is seen by experts as a response to the influx of tourists and Chinese nationals to Serbia that have corresponded with high-profile Chinese investments and loans for projects through the BRI.
According to data from Serbia's National Employment Service, more than 45,000 work permits have been issued to Chinese citizens since 2016, the year the ruling Serbian Progressive Party started intensifying relations with Beijing and expanding BRI projects.
Serbia's Interior Ministry told RFE/RL there are currently 3,433 Chinese citizens registered in the country.
Across The Supercontinent
Looking at 2025: Here's my look at what's on Taiwan's agenda as we prepare to enter 2025, as part of a wider lookahead from across RFE/RL coverage region. My segment begins at 7:25.
Train Links: The first train carrying goods from China to Afghanistan arrived in Mazar-e Sharif on November 23 after crossing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The Taliban said 55 containers arrived in Afghanistan after a 22-day journey, marking the inauguration of the first direct train link between China and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
The New Normal: From attacks in Pakistan to new episodes in Tajikistan, my colleagues Bashir Ahmad Gwakh and Frud Bezhan look at how new violence in South and Central Asia could affect Chinese investment projects across the region.
A Late Warning: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on December 2 warned her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Beijing's support for Russia would "impact" ties with Europe.
One Thing To Watch
According to a draft sanctions package obtaind by RFE/RL, the European Union has proposed for the first time to target Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes over their dealings with Russian firms linked to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
The draft version of the sanctions package was first shared with EU countries on November 22 and would still need to be approved before the end of the year by all 27 member states in order to come into effect.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.
- By RFE/RL
Outside Powers Move To Protect Interests In Syria As Rebel-Backed Interim PM Named
Syria's interim prime minister took power with the support of the rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad as outside powers -- including Russia, Turkey, the United States, and Israel -- maneuvered to protect their geopolitical interests in the war-torn Middle East nation.
In an address on recently captured state TV, Muhammad al-Bashir said he would lead Syria's interim authority through March 1 as the new rulers, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants, looked to solidify control after deposing Assad over the weekend.
Little-known Bashir, born in Idlib Province in 1982 and an engineering graduate, had once worked for Syria's state gas entity and has served as head of the rebel's so-called Salvation Government for the past year.
HTS has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. In recent years, the group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government, although Western powers and rights groups remain cautious.
Meanwhile, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, on December 10 told NBC News that Moscow is providing sanctuary to Assad after transporting him there "in the most secure way possible." He didn't provide further details.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on December 9 that President Vladimir Putin made the decision personally to grant asylum to Assad and his family.
Earlier on December 10, loud explosions were heard amid reports Israel has been systematically striking Syrian military installations following the ouster of Assad’s brutal regime.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that the military had struck several Syrian sites and had hit its naval vessels in overnight strikes.
"The [military] has been operating in Syria in recent days to strike and destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel. The navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success," Katz said.
Katz said Israel’s military has been ordered to create a weapons-free zone in southern Syria "to prevent the establishment and organization of terrorism] in the country.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said Israel had "destroyed the most important military sites in Syria," including “airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian governorates."
The reports came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is "transforming the face of the Middle East" and defeating its enemies "step by step" in what he called an "existential war that has been imposed upon us."
Netanyahu said Assad's regime had been a "central element of Iran's axis of evil," accusing it of facilitating a "weapons pipeline" between Iran and the Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, which has been declared a terrorist organization by the United States. Israel has launched a monthslong air campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
Washington has also conducted some 75 air strikes on Islamic State (IS) militants, who still have a presence in Syria, in recent days to prevent the group from taking advantage of the turmoil that followed Assad's fall.
"You can expect that kind of activity will continue. We don't want to give [IS] an opportunity to exploit what is going on," White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said on December 10.
The United States has about 900 troops in Syria as part of its decade-long fight against IS.
"[IS] will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on December 9. "As our precision strikes over the weekend demonstrate, we are determined not to let that happen."
Washington said it is seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region, including Turkey, to initiate informal contacts.
"We have the ability to communicate with the opposition groups, and we'll continue to do that," Kirby said in his briefing.
The Syrian Observatory also said IS militants killed at least 54 government soldiers who were fleeing advancing rebels "during the collapse of the regime" in the Sukhna area of Homs Province. The report could not immediately be verified.
Meanwhile, satellite imagery by Planet Labs showed Russian naval ships have left their Syrian base at Tartus, with some dropping anchor offshore.
Imagery showed at least three vessels -- including two guided missile frigates -- some 13 kilometers off the coast.
Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim along with the strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and sub-Saharan Africa.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government has ties to many of the rebel groups involved in the takeover, said Ankara will act against anyone seeking to compromise its Syrian territory.
"From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again.... Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it," he said.
Turkey has claimed U.S.-backed Syrian-Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria to be "terrorists" linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Ankara, as well as by Washington.
Tehran, which was also a long-standing backer of Assad, on December 10 said some 4,000 Iranian citizens have left Syria over the past three days. Iranian proxies are thought to have multiple military sites inside Syria, some of which have been hit by Israeli air attacks, but the government has so far been relatively muted in its response to Assad's fall.
On December 9, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on the situation in Syria called by Russia, which together with Iran, has been a main backer of Assad's regime.
"The Council, I think, was more or less united on the need to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of Syria, to ensure the protection of civilians, to ensure that humanitarian aid is coming to the population in need," said Russia's UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, in a statement released after the meeting.
The HTS-led rebels announced on December 9 that they were granting amnesty to all military personnel conscripted during Assad's rule, which began in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had seized power in 1970.
Ahmad al-Sharaa, 42, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has become the public face of HTS, which itself was formerly known as the Al Nusra Front, among other names.
Several European states on December 9 announced they were suspending the granting of asylum requests from Syrians as they awaited developments.
The flood of Syrian refugees during the country's 14-year civil war has often been used by far-right politicians in Europe to inflame passions and bolster their support among voters.
The EU has urged a peaceful political transition in Syria, saying that "it is imperative that all stakeholders engage in an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned dialogue on all key issues."
But EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni said the bloc was "not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders, full stop."
The Syrian civil war began after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal crackdown in March 2011 against peaceful demonstrators inspired by the wave of protests known as the Arab Spring that were sweeping the Middle East at the time.
Beginning in 2015, Russia intervened in the civil war on Assad's side, unleashing a massive bombing campaign against the rebel groups, including Islamist militants, causing numerous civilian casualties and prompting tens of thousands to flee.
The fall of the Assad regime marks a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Iran, has propped up his government, experts say.
With reporting by AP, AFP, and dpa
- By Kian Sharifi
Fall Of Assad Unravels Iran's Decades-Old 'Axis Of Resistance'
Iran spent decades building the so-called axis of resistance, its network of regional armed proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors.
The network was the lynchpin of Tehran's efforts to deter Israel and the United States and exert its influence across the Middle East.
But the fall of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Tehran, has done irreparable damage to the network, analysts say.
For Iran, Syria provided a crucial land corridor to the Levant that was considered the logistical backbone of the axis. The corridor, also known as the Shi'ite Crescent, connected Tehran to the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, a key ally and an integral part of the axis.
"There is no axis without access," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "The resistance is not done, but losing the ability to logistically support Hezbollah means the loss of Iran's strategic depth."
Broken Corridor
Underscoring Syria's importance, Iran spent billions of dollars to keep Assad in power.
Tehran intervened militarily in Syria's civil war in 2013 and played a key role in shoring up Assad's forces. It deployed hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.
After the loss of the land corridor connecting axis members from Iran to Lebanon, "we are likely to see a much-diminished resistance in the coming months and years," said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
The axis, he said, will have "a considerably lower capacity to rebuild or conduct military operations in the future."
At its height, the axis was active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and was meant to give Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability.
But the axis has suffered a series of debilitating setbacks in recent months.
Syria is now effectively ruled by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey, Iran's rival. The HTS seized power in Damascus on December 8.
Hezbollah has been severely weakened after a bruising, yearlong war with Israel, which killed the group's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, Israel's devastating war in the Gaza Strip has diminished the capabilities of U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, another axis member.
Events in Syria "will certainly place significantly more restraints on Iran’s ability to maintain its regional influence," said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies.
Iran's 'Very Bad' Options
Weakened regionally, Iran now has tough decisions to make, including reconsidering its deterrence strategy and possibly developing a nuclear bomb, experts say.
Zimmt says Iran has two "very bad options" -- to do nothing and recognize that its deterrence against Israel has been compromised, or weaponize its nuclear program and expose itself to the possibility of an Israeli attack.
Things look equally grim for Iran’s axis of resistance, according to Sabet, who says Tehran will be under pressure to pull back its regional activities.
Sabet says Iran will seek to exploit any potential chaos in the region, including in post-Assad Syria, to reassert its influence.
"If the civil war in Syria is not quickly settled and a new order created, it might become precisely the type of environment where the Islamic republic has historically thrived," Sabet said.
- By Riin Aljas and
- Carl Schreck
Celebrations, Looting, And Statue Surfing: Scenes From Syria After Assad's Fall
The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime sparked nationwide celebrations, as scenes of jubilation and chaos unfolded across the country.
In the early hours of December 8, videos emerged on social media showing groups of people gathering on Umayyad Square in Damascus, a key landmark in the capital. Thousands more joined them throughout the day, with some participants climbing atop a tank.
Social media footage verified by RFE/RL showed people exiting the central bank building in Damascus carrying bags and boxes.
Looting was reported in the capital and in other cities across the country, according to multiple eyewitness accounts.
At the gates of the presidential palace in Damascus, video footage captured jubilant men cheering and firing weapons into the air.
People were seen entering the palace freely throughout the day after Assad fled the country. Russian state media reported later on December 8 that he and his family had arrived in Moscow and been granted asylum.
Video footage from inside the palace showed crowds milling around, as well as people carrying out furniture and valuables, leaving trashed rooms behind them.
Verified video footage obtained by RFE/RL also showed the building of the Syrian Interior Ministry's immigration and passport department ablaze in Damascus.
Statues of Assad's late father, Hafez al-Assad, who created the authoritarian system his son inherited, were dismantled nationwide after a lightning-fast rebel offensive.
On Arwad Island, off the coast of Tartus and around 10 kilometers from a Russian naval base, jubilant crowds toppled a statue of the elder Assad, who died in 2000, and climbed onto the monument in celebration.
In Latakia, a coastal town that was a stronghold of the Assad family, another statue of Hafez al-Assad was torn down and dragged through the streets behind a truck as revelers rode atop it.
Images also showed the aftermath of the storming of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, which appeared to have been abandoned earlier on December 8. Iranian media reported that diplomats had already evacuated the premises.
- By RFE/RL
Trump Says Russia, Iran In 'Weakened State,' Calls On Putin To Make Ukraine Deal
President-elect Donald Trump said Russia and Iran are in a "weakened state" and called on Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to end the nearly three-year war in Ukraine.
Trump made the comments in a post on Truth Social on December 8 as Syrian rebels captured Damascus, ending the half-century rule of the Russia- and Iran-backed Assad family.
The incoming U.S. president said Russia and Iran couldn't come to the support of Syrian dictator Assad because they were in a "weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success."
Russia has lost about 600,000 soldiers since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Trump said, adding that Ukraine has lost about 400,000 defending its territory.
"There should be an immediate cease-fire and negotiations should begin," Trump said. "I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The world is waiting!"
The Kremlin did not immediately respond to Trump's comment.
Paris Meeting
Trump said in the post that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy "would like to make a deal."
Trump held talks with Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on December 7 to discuss the war. Zelenskiy called the trilateral talks "good and productive" and said the leaders discussed the potential for "a just peace."
Trump and Zelenskiy were among world leaders who gathered in Paris on December 7 to mark the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
"We talked about our people, the situation on the battlefield, and a just peace for Ukraine. We all want to end this war as quickly and fairly as possible," Zelenskiy said in a December 7 post on Telegram.
"President Trump, as always, is determined. We are thankful for that," he added.
Macron said, "Let us continue joint efforts for peace, security."
Trump, who will take office on January 20, has criticized the tens of billions of dollars the United States has poured into Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion.
He has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours of retaking the White House, a statement that has been interpreted as meaning that Ukraine would have to surrender territory that Russia now occupies.
Experts say it will be difficult to hammer out a peace deal quickly because there are so many aspects, including security guarantees for Ukraine and sanctions relief for Russia.
In the meantime, the outgoing Biden administration has been accelerating weapons shipments to Ukraine ahead of the transfer of power to Trump to bolster its defenses.
Washington said on December 7 that it is preparing a $988 million package of arms and equipment to Ukraine, funds taken from the remaining $2.21 billion available in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
The funds will be used to buy precision missiles for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and for drones, the Pentagon said.
European countries are also stepping up aid in case the Trump administration ends U.S. support for Kyiv.
Zelenskiy announced on December 7 that Ukraine had received a second shipment of sophisticated F-16 fighter jets from Denmark. Copenhagen announced last year it would deliver a total of 19 aircraft to Ukraine.
"The second batch of F-16s for Ukraine from Denmark is already in Ukraine. This is the leadership in protecting life that distinguishes Denmark," he wrote on Telegram.
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