BUDAPEST -- In villages and towns across Hungary, adoring crowds gather to hear Peter Magyar speak, their enthusiasm spilling over onto social media where they post selfies taken with the 43-year-old opposition politician.
In just a few months, Magyar has gone from being the unknown husband of the former justice minister to becoming the great new hope for Hungary's opposition. He is also possibly the most dangerous challenger that Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Hungary's populist nationalist-conservative leader who has been in power since 2010, has ever faced.
In European Parliament elections in June, Magyar's newly formed Tisza party received 30 percent of the vote. And in local elections held at the same time, Tisza took the same number of seats as Orban's ruling Fidesz party on the Budapest city council.
Apathetic Youth
Much of Magyar's success is his ability to mobilize young people, a generation known for political apathy. According to 2018 research by Policy Solutions, a progressive political research institute based in Budapest, only 17 percent of 18-29-year-olds vote.
For Hungarians under 35, they have only ever seen Fidesz win an election -- and most of them aren't supportive of the ruling party. A June survey by independent Budapest-based pollster Median found that only 7 percent of people below 30 would vote for Fidesz.
"[Fidesz] are becoming more of a pensioners' party," says Peter Kreko, a political scientist at the independent Budapest-based Political Capital think tank. According to the Median poll, 63 percent of their voters are above the age of 50.
Many young people are deeply disillusioned with the electoral process, with only 22 percent of Hungarians under the age of 30 believing in the fairness of elections, according to a 2021 study sponsored by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung foundation. Critics in Hungary and abroad have accused Orban's party of manipulating the nation's electoral system, clamping down on independent media, and dismantling Hungary's democratic institutions.
"What is it like here [in Hungary]? I would say it's futureless," says Reka, a 30-year old student, who preferred to not give her family name to protect her identity.
It is young people like Reka who have been drawn to Magyar and Tisza. According to Median, 46 percent of Tisza's voters are under 40, compared to 19 percent for Fidesz and 18 percent for the main left-wing coalition.
Social Media Appeal
Magyar's appeal lies in his bright, youthful appearance and a campaign style that resonates with young people. The Tisza team maintains an active social media presence, with Magyar himself sometimes entering the comments to take on the party's critics.
"Peter Magyar communicates normally, seeing his audience as intelligent people," says Sara Darnot, 29, a Budapest-based lawyer. "He's not dumbing his message down."
More than just savvy social media, Magyar's policies appeal to many younger voters. He has promised new housing programs, a beneficial tax system for freelancers, and pledged to support small businesses and the independent media.
A former lawyer, diplomat, and businessman closely connected to Fidesz, Magyar rose to political prominence in March following a child sexual-abuse scandal that rocked the ruling party. As the ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga, who resigned due to the scandal, Magyar gave up his positions in government-run companies and then made public accusations about what he said was the pervasive corruption and nepotism in the Orban administration.
It is his past as a Fidesz loyalist and insider that has concerned many voters. Plus, many young, opposition-minded Hungarians don't think he's left-wing enough. In an interview with independent Hungarian radio station Klubradio, Magyar denied being a liberal, claiming he was a "national liberal or a conservative liberal."
Politically, Tisza remains hard to pin down. The party supports lowering tax on fruit and vegetables, a program for rehabilitating villages, and founding separate ministries for education, health care, and environmental protection. Yet, for other issues that many young people care about -- abortion or migration, for example -- Magyar has not indicated where he stands.
"A party based on youth and one person is fragile," warns Kreko from Political Capital. He says that Tisza's young voter base could lead to instability in the party. "From research on youth, we know that the mainstream changes quickly," he says.
This is what Aron Vasanyi, the 27-year-old press officer of the centrist Momentum party, has also found. Many young people who previously voted for Momentum abandoned the party at the last elections, preferring to vote for Magyar. "The young generation change jobs, partners, homes, and voting preferences easily," he says.
Others, such as student Reka, have expressed concerns about Tisza's lack of experience in governance. "But at least [Magyar] managed to shake things up," she acknowledges.
Brain Drain
The most damning indicator of the political hopelessness of Hungary's youth is the country's brain drain. In 2023, a record 35,000 Hungarians left the country, mostly to live and work elsewhere in the EU, over 15 times more than in 2003. And, in 2023, over 40 percent of people aged 18-29 planned on leaving Hungary within three years, the largest percentage in the bloc after Cyprus, EU research has shown.
Gaspar Kerekjarto, a 28-year-old social worker, moved with his partner to Austria for financial reasons. "The social sphere is incredibly underpaid. We want to get married, have kids, and for this we had to leave the country."
Both Fidesz and Tisza have recognized the need to entice young Hungarians back home, given the labor shortage and the detrimental economic effects of the brain drain.
The Fidesz government has tried to lure young people back by promising loans and other financial help. Magyar has also promised to implement a "detailed program" to enable young people to move back home, but the details remain unclear.
"Young people are the hardest to get home," says Balazs Lang, a 49-year-old journalist and administrator of a Facebook group for expats voting for Tisza. "You have to promise them a lot. Those over 70 would go home for [a lot less]."
Despite the skepticism, many young Hungarians see Magyar as an opportunity for change. "We want to move back to a free country," Lang says.
Kerekjarto, himself a Tisza voter, agreed. "There's no guarantee that it will be good, but here's an opportunity we can't miss. We have to try," he says.
