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Russia 2018: Kremlin Countdown

Updated

A tip sheet on Russia's March 18 presidential election delivering RFE/RL and Current Time TV news, videos, and analysis along with links to what our Russia team is watching. Compiled by RFE/RL correspondents and editors.

With pollster Levada Center sidelined by the Justice Ministry's "foreign agent" designation (it's still said to be conducting surveys but can't publish or otherwise "participate"), independent polling data will be next-to-impossible to come by.

Last week, state pollster VTsIOM ranked the candidates' public support before filings were confirmed at: Putin 69.9%, Grudinin 7.2%, Zhirinovsky 5.9%, Sobchak 1.2%, Yavlinsky 0.9%, and Titov 0.3%. Baburin and Suraikin weren't accounted for.

'Yeah, I Said It': Communist Lawmaker Blasts Election

Regional television in the Tambov region produced a vox-pop segment interviewing passersby about the election.

The journalists ran into a sitting federal lawmaker, Tamara Pletnyova of the Communist Party, who had some harsh words about Russia's elections: "They won't change anything, and there are no elections. You know all this -- it's nothing but vote rigging. One district head -- not from our region, from another -- said: 'If they tell me to vote for an ape, I'll do it!'"

Pletnyova chairs the committee on families, women, and children in the State Duma.

The news portal Znak.com reached her by telephone to confirm her thoughts on the country's elections. Her response: "Yeah, I said it."

"I can repeat it if you like," Pletnyova added. "You found the video? Then just watch it."

Europe's foremost election observer announcing its mission for the March vote will be led by Norwegian Ambassador Jan Petersen:

Here's the key bit of the ODIHR summary of Russia's last presidential election, in 2012:

"Although all contestants were able to campaign unhindered, the conditions for the campaign were found to be skewed in favour of one candidate. While all candidates had access to media, one candidate, the then Prime Minister, was given clear advantage in the coverage. State resources were also mobilized in his support. On election day, observers assessed voting positively, overall; however, the process deteriorated during the count due to procedural irregularities.

"Despite the challenge of organizing elections for nearly 110 million voters residing in a territory comprising nine time zones, the administrative preparations for the presidential election proceeded efficiently. There was, however, a general lack of confidence among many interlocutors in the independence of election officials at all levels, mostly due to their perceived affiliation with local administration and the governing party."

And this is the heart of the ODIHR assessment of the Russian Duma elections in 2016:

"The legal framework can serve as an adequate basis for the conduct of elections, but democratic commitments continue to be challenged and the electoral environment was negatively affected by restrictions to fundamental freedoms and political rights, firmly controlled media and a tightening grip on civil society. The liberalized party registration process has yet to result in distinct political alternatives, and the campaign was low-key. Local authorities did not always treat the contestants equally, and instances of misuse of administrative resources were noted. The election day generally proceeded in an orderly manner, but numerous procedural irregularities were noted during counting."

An interesting piece from the opposition-leaning New Times cites sources within Putin's election HQ, suggesting the Putin campaign is being run ultimately by two groups of influence linked to billionaire Yury Kovalchuk, who is sometimes known as Putin's banker, and Sergei Chemezov, the powerful Rostec corporation chief.

What's behind the recent anti-Grudinin campaign in the Russian media?

Pro-Kremlin media have begun attacking Communist candidate Pavel Grudinin more actively. Does the regime really see Grudinin as a threat? Ist it just keeping its "propaganda muscles" in shape? Or is the whole thing just an elaborate spectacle to make the election look more competitive than it really is? In his column for Republic.ru, opposition journalist Oleg Kashin takes a look.

Russians Rally To Support Government, Olympic Athletes

By RFE/RL's Russian Service

Tens of thousands of Muscovites have come out for a government-organized concert and demonstration under the slogan "Russia In My Heart."

The February 3 demonstration outside the Kremlin served two purposes: It continued the commemorations of the 75th anniversary of the Soviet victory in the Battle of Stalingrad that began one day earlier and it marked a send-off for Russian athletes heading to the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Police estimated the crowd at about 60,000 people, who stood in wet snow watching large monitors showing Russia's army and navy conducting military operations in Syria overlaid with waving Russian flags to the sound of patriotic anthems.

Some participants expressed resentment that Russian athletes at the Pyeongchang Olympics will have to participate under a neutral flag because Russia has been banned over systemic doping violations by carrying signs reading: "Athletes without a flag are athletes without a motherland."

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The Russian Service of the BBC conducted on-the-spot interviews with participants in a pro-government rally in Moscow on February 3, most of whom said they were state-sector workers who had been encouraged to come by their employers. When asked whether it was fair that opposition politician Aleksei Navalny and more than 350 of his supporters had been arrested for trying to demonstrate nearby on January 28, most respondents either said they had not heard of those events or said that the arrests were justified because the government had not granted Navalny permission to demonstrate.

Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky cut a rug on the campaign trail recently in a video going around.

It's the flamboyant ultranationalist's sixth presidential campaign, so he was actually in that 1996 race in which Boris Yeltsin famously danced that jig on his way to reelection as Russia's president. (Zhirinovsky polled 5.8 percent back then.)

Here's an RFE/RL infographic offering some insight into what Russians expected coming into this election year.

Eyes Out For Suspicious Turnout

Opposition leader Navalny, barred from running due to a criminal conviction he and his supporters call fabricated, has launched an election-monitoring initiative for the presidential poll.

In a February 2 post on his website, Navalny called for volunteers to sign up as observers, with a focus on regions that traditionally report suspiciously high voter turnout.

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