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Russia 2018: Kremlin Countdown

Updated

A tip sheet on Russia's March 18 presidential election delivering RFE/RL and Current Time TV news, videos, and analysis along with links to what our Russia team is watching. Compiled by RFE/RL correspondents and editors.

Never mind...

...the March 18 presidential election.

According to a commentary titled Apolitcal Therapy in Novaya Gazeta by Yuliya Galyamina of the Moscow-based School of Local Self-Administration, it is local referendums that will be the engine of change in Russia -- fueled by less highly politicized, grassroots issues.

How Much Did Candidates Pay Per Signature?

This is from February 3, but it's still interesting.

Political analyst Maksim Kats has looked at the declared spending of each campaign so far to see how much each candidate spent gathering their signatures. He compares that with how much he had to pay per signature when he ran for the State Duma in 2014. Putin got his for just 14 rubles per signature. Sobchak paid 42 rubles. Yavlinsky paid 196 rubles.

Kats argues that the numbers show that Putin used "administrative resources" to get his signatures. The numbers for Sobchak indicate that she tried to get her signatures legally at first, he says, but was having little success and so used administrative resources. She paid 581,000 rubles to people collecting signatures and 10 million rubles for "consultants." Yavlinsky paid 22 million to his signature collectors (didn't need any consultants!).

Navalny 'Demonstration Against Idiocy' Challenges 'Extremist' Ruling

Aleksei Navalny has urged supporters to post photos taken during the 1945 victory parade at the end of World War II (the Great Patriotic War to Russians) following the fining of one of the barred opposition leader's volunteers.

The call by Navalny, who's barred from running in March, appears to be a response to the prosecution and fining in January of the volunteer for a so-called administrative offense.

The image in question shows German soldiers holding banners that bear Nazi symbols, and Navalny and others claim it appears on the cover of a high-school textbook.

"This is not just a well-known photograph but a symbol, in a sense the main picture of the Great Patriotic War," Navalny says. "The importance of this image is reflected in the fact that it is placed on the cover of the history textbook for the 11th grade."

He vows to post the image himself to social media and urges others to do the same in a "campaign against idiocy" that challenges Russian authorities' characterization of "extremists."

Here's the story from our Current Time TV colleagues (click image to see):

Writer Leonid Ragozin says the book bearing the image is "circulated in thousands of schools."

Dubious 'Observer' Missions

Ukrainian academic and blogger Anton Shekhovstov predicted how various observer missions are likely to descend on Russia and annexed Crimea to "monitor" the upcoming presidential vote. He describes how these monitors work and who they are likely to be, as well as some of the history of "pro-Kremlin efforts through fake electoral observation."

The post is called European Council on Democracy and Human Rights: “Presidential election in Crimea is fair, free and legitimate.

Here's an excerpt:

The name “European Council on Democracy and Human Rights” sounds nice, doesn’t it? “European”, “democracy”, “human rights” – we surely like all these concepts. And the readers will ask themselves: how comes that an organisation with such a nice name has legitimised the vote in Russia-annexed Crimea? They will do a Google search and find the website of the European Council on Democracy and Human Rights (ECDHR), decorated with EU flags, that claims that the ECDHR is “a nonprofit, nongovernmental organization that is supporting democratic institutions and practices around the world” and is engaged in “promotion of the values of European Charter of Fundamental Rights, and the European Convention of Human Rights”. This is, again, very nice, but the readers will then have even more questions. And those will be valid questions, but there is no need to wait until March 2018 to ask them and then seek answers – I will answer them today.

Shekhovstov is author of Routledge Press's recent book Russia And The Western Far Right: Tango Noir.

Yekaterinburg Mayor: It's Humiliating To Participate In These Elections

"It isn't a matter of effectiveness," says Yevgeny Roizman, mayor of Russia's fourth-largest city. "There are things that one cannot participate in. There are things that are humiliating and unnatural -- such as the current elections. It is shameful and ugly. I can't change the situation, but they cannot force me to participate in the elections."

The opposition-minded Yekaterinburg mayor calls on people to boycott the elections, including the vote for a Sverdlovsk Oblast governor.

The original interview was with Deutsche Welle.

Roizman won the mayor's office in Yekaterinburg in 2013, handing the ruling United Russia party a rare outright defeat in that Urals city.

Rights Activist Questions Election's Legitimacy Due To Crimea

On the website of the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, Halya Coynash argues that the fact that Russia's March 18 presidential election is being held on the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula makes it illegitimate. She argues, therefore, that the OSCE should not legitimize the election by sending observers -- even outside Crimea.

Russians' Concerns Ahead Of The Election

Low wages and incomes top the concerns of a majority of Russians in 2017, according to an opinion poll by Romir, followed by rising prices and inflation, and just ahead of corruption and unemployment.

Yavlinsky himself said he discussed this with Putin and that he'd seriously consider it if offered the chance.

How realistic are rumors that Yavlinsky will get a Kremlin job after the election?

In her column for Republic.ru, political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya looks at recent speculation that Yabloko leader and candidate Yavlinsky could get a Kremlin job as point man on Ukraine after the election. The idea may be far fetched -- but not as far fetched as it first seems, she argues.

A commentary by Maria Domanska at Warsaw's Center for Eastern Studies -- titled Putin For The Fourth Time. No Vision, No Hope -- argues that Putin's decision to run again for president signals the Kremlin is set to continue on the same course in domestic and foreign affairs, despite facing serious problems that include economic stagnation, decreasing real incomes, and tense relations with the West.

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