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Russia 2018: Kremlin Countdown

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A tip sheet on Russia's March 18 presidential election delivering RFE/RL and Current Time TV news, videos, and analysis along with links to what our Russia team is watching. Compiled by RFE/RL correspondents and editors.

Communist Schism? Zyuganov Says He Won't Give Up Party To Grudinin

The business newspaper Vzglyad writes that there could be a schism growing in Russia’s Communist Party as internal factions split their loyalties between longtime leader Gennady Zyuganov and the man chosen to be their standard bearer in next month’s election, Pavel Grudinin.

The closest Zyuganov has ever come to the presidency was in 1996, when he challenged then-incumbent Boris Yeltsin. Since then, the once-mighty party has diminished, due in no small part to the party’s older base.

So when party leaders chose Grudinin over Zyuganov to run in this year’s election, many observers were surprised. Zyuganov this week signaled there was behind-the-scenes intrigue, telling a news conference on February 15 that he wasn’t ready to "give up" the party to Grudinin.

Russian Foreign Ministry Asserts West Trying To Interfere In Campaign

This week the chiefs of the United States' main spy agencies asserted that, with congressional midterms looming, Moscow’s efforts to meddle in U.S. elections were continuing unabated.

Moscow has responded with similar accusations of its own but broadened them to include the entire West.

"Unlike the unfounded accusations of all-powerful Russian hackers and some such Russian influence on elections in other countries, we have information and concrete facts concerning the destructive interference of a number of Western countries in our internal affairs” during the campaign, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a February 15 briefing.

She did not offer any evidence to back up the claim.

Is The Russian Election A 'Zombie Horror Show'? A Former Moscow-Based Ukrainian-American Reporter Thinks So

Among the things the election campaign has already been likened to: a movie, a charade, a circus.

Writing in Baffler magazine, Natalia Antonova, a Ukrainian-American journalist who has written from Moscow for The Guardian and The Moscow Times, offers a dose of wit and color as well as this metaphor for the campaign: "a zombie horror show." Or a tired marriage: "Both parties are keeping up appearances, but the smiles are stretched too tight, the atmosphere is so heavy that everyone around wants to shrug it off."

And referring to an infamous moment in the 2014 parliamentary elections, Antonova offers up a variation on the Soviet-era joke: How many Russian election officials does it take to screw in a lightbulb? Exactly 146 percent of all the Central Election Commission members.

For serious Russia watchers, here's our live stream from Supreme Court proceedings this morning at which the panel dismissed candidate Sobchak's challenge to Putin's candidacy over the presidential term limit.

What Will 'Putin 4.0' Look Like?

To mark today's centenary of Lithuania's declaration of independence, here's a contribution from Vilius Ivanauskas -- senior analyst for the Eastern Europe Studies Center and a senior researcher at the Lithuanian Institute of History -- to the Lithuanian English-language news site Delfi.lt.

There is a clear denunciation of Russia's election:

The upcoming presidential elections in Russia are not real elections. This farcical ritual of ensuring the continuity and legitimacy of Vladimir Putin's rule helps to portray Putin as essential to ensuring the country's stability. However, the government has the basic tools (control of the media, electoral system, "administrative resources," and so on) to ensure Putin's continued popularity while assuring itself a veneer of legitimacy—in which the security services play a disproportionate role. In 2012-2014, public support for Putin actually fell, and anti-Putin forces represented a serious challenge to the president. However, Putin's popularity soared after Russia's actions in Ukraine in 2014.

Ivanauskas goes on to describe how Putinism has sought to further a narrative of a "Russia no longer on its knees." He adds:

One of the biggest remaining questions is whether Russia will be capable of wider re-engagement with the domestic public and of effectively implementing a programme of economic modernization during Putin's fourth term. The latter is especially significant, given that experts believe that economic reforms are needed if the country is to avoid entering a recession in the next few years[10]. Unfortunately, according to the current consensus, the Putin-Medvedev tandem is at best capable of implementing only partial reforms.

And going forward, he cites a likely power struggle, concluding:

Uncertainty about the succession process is adding so much stress to power networks that we may see a return to real negotiations and meaningful politics to the Russian political stage during the Putin 4.0 era. At the very least, we should soon see mafia-style power clans begin identifying some potential candidates for Putin to evaluate personally.

BREAKING NEWS: Court Dismisses Sobchak Complaint

Our Russian Service reports from the courtroom that the Supreme Court has rejected Sobchak's challenge of Putin's candidacy, which was based on his previous terms as president in light of the Russian Constitution's term limit.

It's a debate that has simmered ever since Putin announced his intention to return to the Kremlin for a third term in 2012.

The latest from Power Vertical's Brian Whitmore.

Putinism With Human Faces

One opposition candidate for the Russian presidency spent last week campaigning -- in the United States -- with a message that often sounded suspiciously like the Kremlin's.

Another traveled to the United Kingdom to persuade exiled businessmen to return to Russia with their assets, a longtime goal of Vladimir Putin's.

And yet another hinted about being open to taking a job as a Kremlin adviser after the election.

With opponents like these, who needs allies?

READ MORE

Expat Chichvarkin: Voters Are 'Accomplices' To 'Pseudo-Election'

Current Time TV talked to one of the better-known Russian millionaires in London about the election.

Yevgeny Chichvarkin founded Russia's largest mobile-phone retailer, Euroset, before leaving Russia following a number of seemingly dubious interventions by authorities targeting his business. He is an open opposition, and indeed Navalny, supporter.

On Navalny:

"The only electable candidate who is independent of the Kremlin."

On "dignity":

"People worked for the bandit state of the Soviet Union; people then worked for the irresponsible Russian state; now people are working for the Russian gangster state under Putin."

And on the Russian election and election day:

"We'll have a big gathering in front of the [Russian] embassy [in London]. We'll throw rotten eggs. We've already put the eggs near the stove; they'll be rotten by now. Eggs, tomatoes. We'll throw rotten tomatoes and eggs, and heap shame on all those who come to vote in these pseudo-elections, because they are all accomplices."

Here's the video, in Russian:

Photo Contest To Boost Turnout

Is there no end to the schemes being dreamed up to maximize turnout in the March 18 presidential election?

Many analysts have said the Kremlin fears low turnout could further undermine the appearance of legitimacy.

Now, a local Internet newspaper in Novgorod is sponsoring a photo competition encouraging people to submit selfies from polling stations under the hashtag #яживой (#ImAlive).

One Twitter comedian posted: "Photograph yourself at the polling station and boast that after 17 years of Putin's rule, you are still alive."

Brian Whitmore's Morning Vertical today on non-candidate Navalny looking like the only one "actually behaving like a candidate":

It appears that Aleksei Navalny has really touched a nerve with the video he released last week targeting Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Prikhodko and Kremlin-connected oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

According to reports this morning, Internet providers in Russia have begun blocking access to opposition leader and anticorruption crusader Aleksei Navalny's website following an order from Roskomnadzor, the country's communications regulator.

Russian authorities are also threatening to block YouTube and Instagram for hosting the video.

It's just the latest example of how spooked the Kremlin is by Navalny. (In fact, some Moscow residents say the only way they can get officials to clear the snow in the Russian capital is to write Navalny's name on it.)

He's been barred from the ballot in Russia's so-called presidential election.

But even though he is a noncandidate officially, he is the only person who is actually behaving like a candidate.

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