Estonian Intelligence Calls Russian Election 'Piece Of Theater'

Five decades of Soviet occupation and a sizable population of ethnic Russians provides Estonia with plenty of insight about its neighbor to the east. So an Estonian intelligence report that doesn't pull any punches about the upcoming Russian presidential election is worth a read.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service's third public report says:

The world is witnessing a carefully choreographed piece of theater that attempts to leave the impression of free elections. But behind the scenes, a cynical plan is being executed to ensure Putin and his inner circle retain their grip on power for yet another term.

It goes on to describe Ksenia Sobchak, the TV personality and presidential challenger who has arguably generated the most buzz to date, as a fake candidate:

Sobchak's criticisms of the government are entirely safe as far as the Kremlin is concerned and her political agenda is perfect material for the appearance of an open public debate.

Anticorruption crusader and barred candidate Aleksei Navalny, on the other hand, is praised for harnessing growing Russian discontent:

This provides a grateful audience for an opposition leader who speaks openly about problems and creates opportunities to protest against them.

Sobchak Names (Some) Donors

Candidate Ksenia Sobchak has identified sponsors of her campaign -- or some of them, anyways, according to reports by Vedomosti, Dozhd TV, and Meduza.

Sobchak reportedly told a press conference on February 20 that the names represent those contributors who agreed that their names be disclosed and those who had not requested "any lobbying conditions" from her.

Among the financial supporters of her campaign, Sobchak mentioned Ukraine-born Russian businessman Vladimir Palikhata; St. Petersburg businessman and financial supporter of Novaya Gazeta newspaper Aleksandr Roslyakov; Yota Devices smartphone maker founder Sergei Adonyev; developer and fitness-club owner Vadim Raskovalov; a former deputy chief of the federal tax service, Anatoly Tsybulevsky; and the president of the ACMG publishing house, Aleksandr Fedotov.

Sobchak said in late January that she had managed to raise 140 million rubles ($2.5 million) toward her campaign, including 19 million rubles ($337,000) of her own cash.

Her critics have accused her of helping the Kremlin portray what barred opposition politician Aleksei Navalny has called Putin's "reappointment" as a competitive election.

Gays For Putin

An independent group called Gays For Putin has applied for permission to hold a demonstration in St. Petersburg in support of Vladimir Putin's candidacy in the March 18 election.

They would like to hold the event on May 3.

"Quite often activists are reproached for being isolated from the people," the organizers were quoted by Rosbalt as saying.

They added:

There are millions of gays in Russia and hardly any of them turn out for protests. That means that generally gays in Russia support President Putin's policies regarding the LGBT community. We decided to express this demand of the gay community by openly supporting the candidacy of Vladimir Putin for president. He signs the laws that are aimed at strengthening the moral-spiritual foundation of Russian society. He awards orders and medals to deserving gays. Many gays in this country say: "Putin is our president. Gays are for Putin!"

St. Petersburg, Putin's hometown, was the birthplace of the local law that became the model for a national law prohibiting the propagandizing of "nontraditional sexual relations" to minors. Many activists view the law as homophobic.

Petersburg is also the home of Duma deputy Vitaly Milonov, the author of the original gay-propaganda law. He recently raised eyebrows when he told a radio station that "as an old demon hunter" he can smell gays. "They have a gray smell, naturally," he said.

Rally organizers expect 600 participants.

Back To The Future

The Independent's Moscow correspondent, Alec Luhn, has found an amusing meme going around Russian social media. Believe it or not, it turns out that opposition politician Aleksei Navalny bears a striking resemblance to a young Boris Yeltsin, Russia's first president who in 1999 hand-picked Vladimir Putin as his successor.

The Russian caption reads: "Sverdlovsk 1956: Boris Yeltsin, foreseeing he'd make a fatal mistake in naming his successor, sends his young self into the future to fix it."

What Would Elon Do?

The heavily managed Russian presidential election continues to generate gallows humor on social media.

This tweet notes that Russia has budgeted 17.7 billion rubles ($323 million) to hold the election and adds: "For that money, Elon Musk could send 1,552 Russian bureaucrats to Mars."

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Officials in Tatarstan continue to argue over how much effort republican authorities should expend tracking down and punishing Pravda newspaper for an issue that the Central Election Commission ruled was improperly stumping for Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin, our IdelReal.org colleagues report.

Head Of Navalny's Anticorruption Foundation Detained At Moscow Airport

By Current Time TV

The director of Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny's Anticorruption Foundation has been detained at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport, a senior Navalny associate says.

Leonid Volkov said on Twitter late on February 19 that Roman Rubanov was detained after passing customs inspection and, according to Rubanov himself, he was afterward taken to a police station.

According to Volkov, Rubanov was charged with organizing an unsanctioned rally.

In late January, Navalny supporters in many Russian cities staged "voter strikes" in protest of the Central Election Commission's refusal to register Navalny as a presidential candidate.

READ MORE

Wrong Tatar

We have written earlier about the Kremlin's uphill efforts to drum up support for Putin's reelection among Crimean Tatars in the annexed Ukrainian region of Crimea. Since the Russian occupation of the region in 2014, which was opposed by virtually all Crimean Tatars, human rights activists have documented Moscow's systematic campaign to oppress Crimean Tatars.

A small group of young people in Crimea on February 17 held a flash mob in the capital, Simferopol. The event was organized by a local pro-Kremlin GONGO (state-organized nongovernmental organization) and was billed as a "celebration of Crimean spring" and of gratitude to Putin.

The participants wore vests with Putin's portrait and the slogan "Putin, Forward!" ostensibly written in Crimean Tatar. But Refat Chubarov, the exiled head of the Mejlis, the independent Crimean Tatar self-government organ, pointed out that the slogan was not written in Crimean Tatar at all but in Tatar -- a related but distinct language. Tatar is primarily spoken in the Russian Volga region of Tatarstan and the surrounding area.

What's more, although the slogan contained only one Tatar word (in addition to Putin's name), the organizers got that wrong as well, writing the Tatar word in Crimean Tatar form.

Relations between Crimean Tatars and Tatars have been complicated for decades, and Crimean Tatars have noted that the de facto Russian authorities in Crimea have brought in a number of Tatars to the region to give the appearance of diversity. The deputy prime minister of Crimea, Rustam Temirgaliev, is a Tatar from Tatarstan.

"They continue trying to divide us," Crimean Tatar leader Mustafa Dzhemilev told RFE/RL in May 2014.

The Case Of The Magical Governor

Although President Putin has been reported in poor health recently (his spokesman said he has a cold) and has canceled a number of trips and events, the Kremlin insists that he continues working. On February 19, for instance, the Kremlin posted that Putin met in his residence near Moscow with Irkutsk Oblast Governor Sergei Levchenko.

However, locals in Irkutsk thought this was strange because earlier in the day, Levchenko participated in a ribbon-cutting at a new hospital in Irkutsk. That event, naturally, was well-covered by local media.

Because Irkutsk is 4,000 kilometers to the east, it is five hours ahead of Moscow time. Technically, blogger Irek Murtazin concedes, Levchenko could have made it to Moscow in time to speak with Putin; but it would have been quite a logistical feat.

According to the Kremlin transcript of the meeting, Putin's first question was, "What results have you achieved [in your region]?" Levchenko answered vaguely about a growth in industrial production and investment but didn't think to mention the bright new hospital he'd just cut the ribbon on a few hectic hours before.

Putin Poster In Kurgan Defaced

Reports continue coming in of attacks against campaign billboards promoting President Putin. Earlier we reported how police in several cities have set up round-the-clock security for Putin's ads, but there are still new incidents.

In Kurgan, activists attacked two Putin billboards with green paint and posted photographs of their handiwork on social media.

The green paint was clearly a reminder of a spate of attacks last year against Russian opposition figures using zelyonka, a harsh antiseptic that stains the skin green.

In the most serious of the attacks, opposition leader and barred would-be candidate Aleksei Navalny suffered a serious eye injury when he was splattered with zelyonka on April 27, 2017. In May he traveled to Spain for surgery on the affected eye, but his vision reportedly remains impaired.