On the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia has seized the initiative -- and wants to cement its gains ahead of any potential peace talks with Kyiv.
On the offensive since at least midsummer, Russian forces have accelerated their advances, grinding down Ukrainian troops across the 1,100-kilometer front line: in the south near Vuhledar and Pokrovsk; farther to the north near Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk; and even in Kursk, the Russian region where Ukraine staged a surprise invasion in August.
Moscow has also hired as many as 12,000 North Korean troops, and started to deploy them to western Russia, as part of what U.S. and Ukrainian officials say is a looming offensive to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory entirely.
"We all know, I won't be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has collapsed,” Ukrainian Major General Dmytro Marchenko said in surprisingly stark public assessment on October 29. He later announced his resignation, in what many saw as punishment for his candor.
Ukraine staged its own display of prowess over the weekend, sending scores of drones at Moscow and a half-dozen other Russian regions. The attack, which disrupted some flights but otherwise caused little major damage, was the largest of its kind since Russia launched its all-out invasion in February 2022.
What it all means is that Russia’s war on Ukraine is nearing another critical juncture, with pressure building for a cease-fire or a peace deal that would pause, if not outright halt the fighting nearly 33 months in.
The pressure is building in large part because of the election of Donald Trump, who has vocally criticized the volume of U.S. aid to Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly vowed to bring the conflict to a quick end, though he has provided few details.
The outgoing administration of President Joe Biden -- which shepherded to Ukraine nearly $60 billion in weapons and equipment and much more in other aid -- has shown signs of impatience with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and a "victory plan" he has promoted as a path to a "just peace."
"Russia is trying to advance as much as possible and demonstrate the ability to sustain intensity of combat for the foreseeable future, to both create a new reality on the ground and to have as much leverage over such issues like [Ukraine’s] NATO membership prospects," said Mykola Byelyeskov, a researcher at the Ukrainian government-run National Institute for Strategic Studies.
'There Is No Way Back To Normality'
Both Moscow and Kyiv, meanwhile, are suffering from extraordinarily high casualties. Russia has replenished the ranks of its dead and wounded soldiers -- estimated at 600,000 and climbing -- by attracting new recruits, drawn from a larger population base with exceptionally high wages and bonuses. Admiral Tony Radakin, Britain’s chief of the defense staff, told the BBC that October was the worst month for Russian casualties: around 1,500 a day.
Ukraine, whose death toll alone is estimated to exceed 80,000, is struggling to keep up its recruiting pipeline and bolster its ranks.
While the Kremlin's larger objectives go much further, one consistent goal is the capture of Ukrainian territory. That included the entirety of the industry-heavy Donetsk and Luhansk regions, also known as the Donbas.
Despite being beaten back multiple times, Russian troops currently hold about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and are incrementally grabbing more by the day.
Russia's wider political goals include toppling the Ukrainian government, something that is unlikely for the foreseeable future. Preventing Kyiv from joining NATO also remains a top priority.
Also unlikely for the foreseeable future is the prospect of Ukraine achieving its goal of regaining control over the whole country, including Crimea. But it is seeking to deny Russia further gains inside Ukraine and to hold onto Russian territory in the Kursk region.
"Both sides want to build leverage before any potential negotiations," said Eric Ciaramella, a former White House National Security Council official for Russia and Ukraine. "For the Ukrainians, Kursk was a big part of this -- although in the end it didn't deliver the trade bait Kyiv had hoped for, and now Ukraine's positions there appear increasingly tenuous."
Ukraine's top military officer, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskiy, said on November 12 he travelled to the Kursk region, which Zelenskiy has said outright could be used as a bargaining chip in any negotiations with Russia.
He appeared to defend the decision to invade Kursk, which some outside observers questioned because it drew some of Ukraine's more experienced units from other parts of the battlefield -- particularly three points that are under severe Russian pressure.
"These tens of thousands of enemies from the best Russian shock units would have stormed our positions in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, or Toretsk directions, which would have significantly worsened the situation at the front," Syrskiy said.
The Price Of Peace
Both Trump and the incoming vice president, J.D. Vance, have signaled they would push Ukraine harder to negotiate. They have not announced a specific plan bring the sides to the table, and top Russian officials, Putin included, have signaled no softening of the Kremlin's positions.
The man Trump announced will be his new national-security adviser, meanwhile, suggested one point of leverage for pushing the Kremlin to negotiations.
"America can use economic leverage, including lifting the pause on exports of liquefied natural gas and cracking down on Russia’s illicit oil sales, to bring Mr. Putin to the table,” Michael Waltz said in a co-authored opinion piece published in the Economist magazine on November 2.
"This plan is superior to the current White House approach, which lacks a stated goal but will end in a stalemate with Russia occupying some Ukrainian territory," he wrote. "The current path will just take more time, blood, and treasure to get there."
Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former top Ukrainian military and intelligence adviser, suggests it is naïve to think Russia has any intention of negotiating anything at all.
"Their political objective is to destroy or at least to reload the world security architecture," he said. "My prediction: Russia will use the negotiations to reduce Western support to Ukraine and will continue its unholy crusade against the West."
"There is no way back to 'normality,'" he said. "This is a global war in which the West can either win or be defeated."
For its part, Ukraine fears building Western impatience, and many officials worry that the Trump administration's inclination to temper its support will ultimately mean throwing Kyiv under the bus.
"There has been much talk about the need to yield to Putin, to back down, to make some concessions," Zelenskiy said in a speech at a European Political Community meeting on November 7.
"It's unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all Europe.”
