Iran's supreme leader on November 2 threatened Israel and the United States with “a crushing response” over attacks on Iran and its allies. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke as Iranian officials are increasingly threatening to launch yet another strike against Israel after its October 26 attack on Iran, which targeted military bases and other locations, killing at least five people. Any further attacks from either side could engulf the wider Middle East -- already teetering over the war between Israel and U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon -- into a wider regional conflict just ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several B-52 long-range strike bombers to the Middle East, a Pentagon statement said on November 1.

The forces will begin to arrive in the region in the coming months to replace the departing USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said in the statement.

The announcement comes three weeks after U.S. President Joe Biden said he had ordered the Pentagon to send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and troops to Israel as part of U.S. efforts to defend its ally and build up positions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“These movements demonstrate the flexible nature of U.S. global defense posture and U.S. capability to deploy worldwide on short notice to meet evolving national security threats,” Ryder said in the statement.

It added that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people.”

The long-range nuclear-capable B-52 bomber has been repeatedly deployed to the Middle East in pointed warnings to Iran. The action announced on November 1 is the second time this month that strategic U.S. bombers will be used to bolster U.S. defenses in the region.

Ryder did not provide the specific number of aircraft and ships that will be moved.

He said the movements were in keeping with U.S. commitments to the protection of U.S. citizens and U.S. forces in the Middle East, the defense of Israel, and de-escalation through deterrence and diplomacy.

The moves come as Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas and the war in Lebanon against Hezbollah rage. Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist group by the United States, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing, and not the political party.

The United States is pressing for cease-fires, while repeatedly saying it will defend Israel and continue to protect the American and allied presence in the region.

With reporting by AP

Iran was quick to downplay the impact of Israel's attack on key military sites on its territory on October 26.

But satellite images suggest Israel has degraded Tehran's air-defense and missile-production capabilities, analysts say.

Fabian Hinz of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said Israel had dealt a "significant blow" to Iran's ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles.

Ability To Sustain Long-Range Attacks

On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever direct attack on Israel, firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at its archenemy. Dozens of the missiles, aimed mostly at military sites, penetrated Israel's formidable air defenses.

Israel's retaliatory strikes on October 26 were aimed at hindering Iran's production of solid-propellant ballistic missiles that were used by Tehran in its assault, the "weapons that are of most concern to Israel," Hinz said.

Solid-propellant missiles require fewer personnel and little time to prepare for launch compared to liquid-propellant missiles, Hinz explains, making them ideal for launching volleys in quick succession.

Israel struck missile-production sites around Tehran, including the Parchin military complex, the Khojir military base, the Shahrud missile site, and a factory in the Shamsabad Industrial Zone.

Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense specialist at the global intelligence company Janes, says the full extent of the damage caused to the facilities is still unclear.

But he adds that Israel likely wanted to prevent Iran from being able to sustain long-range missile exchanges, especially given the numbers it needs to penetrate Israel's formidable air defenses.

"The Israelis probably don't know precisely how many ballistic missiles [Iran] has with the requisite range, but have tried to reduce its ability to replenish is stockpile," Binnie said.

Blinded Offensively And Defensively?

Israel's attack was also aimed at weakening Iran's ability to fend off aerial attacks by targeting its radars and Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems.

There have been unconfirmed reports quoting U.S. and Israeli officials claiming that three S-300 systems were taken out in the Israeli attack.

"The S-300s are Iran's most capable air-defense capabilities, so targeting them again emphasizes Iran's inability to defend itself and gives the Israeli Air Force more freedom of operation in the future," Binnie said.

Satellite images also showed that at least two radar systems -- one in the western Ilam Province and another in the southwestern Khuzestan Province -- were hit.

The radars are an essential part of Iran's early warning system, Hinz told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. Taking them out, he said, would mean Israel had "degraded Iran's ability to resist any air attack even further, making it more vulnerable."

Fox News quoted a U.S. defense official as saying that the radars also had an offensive purpose, and have been used by Iran to track ballistic missiles after launch to assess their trajectories and course-correct if necessary.

Binnie said that "would be unusual but might explain how [Iran] has achieved a fairly high level of accuracy with its ballistic missiles -- though not good enough to do really significant damage."

Impact On Iranian Retaliation

There are growing numbers of reports that Tehran is considering retaliating against Israel as the extent of the damage caused by the October 26 attack becomes clearer.

Given that Iran has suffered damage to both its offensive and defensive capabilities, it is unclear if it can launch another large-scale attack on Israel, experts say.

Binnie said the United States' deployment to Israel of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an advanced anti-missile system, will further "swing the balance in [Israel's] favor."

Media reports citing Israeli sources say that Iran is preparing to launch an aerial attack on Israel using Tehran-backed Shi'ite militant groups in Iraq. That would suggest the Islamic republic hopes its proxies will absorb the brunt of a potential Israeli response.

Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report

Germany will shut all three Iranian consulates in Germany in reaction to the execution of dual German-Iranian citizen Jamshid Sharmahd, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on October 31.

"We have repeatedly made it clear that the execution of a German citizen will have serious consequences," Baerbock said in New York. "I have therefore decided to close the three Iranian consulates-general in Frankfurt am Main, Munich, and Hamburg."

Baerbock added that relations with Iran have reached “more than a low point” following the execution of Sharmahd, which was announced by Tehran on October 28.

Germany had already recalled its ambassador for consultations and summoned the Iranian charge d'affaires to voice Berlin's protest.

SEE ALSO:

Germany Recalls Iran Envoy After Execution Of German-Iranian

Baerbock said the execution of Sharmahd shows the Iranian "regime of injustice" continues to act brutally.

The 32 employees at the three consulates must leave the country unless they have German citizenship. The embassy in Berlin is not affected by the order.

Iran summoned Germany's charge d'affaires in Tehran to protest Germany's "unjust" decision, state media reported on October 31.

Iranian state media said Sharmahd was put to death after he was convicted of carrying out terrorist attacks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that having a German passport does not give anyone immunity.

German Chancellor Olaf Schultz joined Baerbock in strongly condemning the execution of Sharmahd, calling it a "scandal" for the Iranian government.

Deputy Special Envoy Abram Paley of the U.S. Office of the Special Envoy for Iran welcomed Germany’s decision to close the three Iranian consulates.

“We stand united with the international community in holding the regime accountable,” he said on X, calling the execution of Sharmahd “unjust.”

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also strongly condemned the execution of Sharmahd and said the European Union is considering taking measures in response.

Sharmahd, 69, was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran believes was behind a deadly 2008 bombing and of planning other attacks in the country.

Fourteen Iranians were killed and 210 others wounded in the attack at the Sayyid al-Shuhada Husseiniya mosque in Shiraz during a ceremony to mourn the death of Imam Hussein, the third imam of Shi'a Muslims.

Iran's Intelligence Ministry accused Sharmahd of planning the bombing, a charge his family dismissed as "ridiculous."

With reporting by dpa and Reuters

Naim Qassem, the new leader of the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, vowed on October 30 to continue to implement the war plan set by his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, amid reports that Israel was again striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

In his first speech since being named earlier this week to replace Nasrallah, who was killed in a massive Israeli air strike on September 27, Qassem said Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party, "must not stop and watch...despite the pain."

In recent weeks, Israel has been engaged in a campaign of air strikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon that has targeted Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities in response to numerous rocket and missile attacks by the group.

Those attacks have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed around than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages. Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

Qassem, who has close ties with Iran and whom Washington declared a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2018, gave no details on how he will continue the war against Israel and admitted Israel's strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon have been a "big blow."

SEE ALSO:

Will Hezbollah's New Leader, Naim Qassem, Seek To Negotiate With Israel?

Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991, Qassem is often credited with leading the organization’s efforts to transition from a mainly militant group into a dominant political force in Lebanon, with his writings mostly focused on the ideological and religious underpinnings of the group, rather than military strategy.

Analysts have been watching to see if the appointment of an experienced political figure may suggest that Hezbollah is preparing to talk to Israel to end the ongoing conflict, though Israel has shown no interest in meeting.

Hezbollah controls much of southern Lebanon and its political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

More than 19 months after Iranians were barred from buying the latest iPhone models, authorities announced on October 30 that the ban was being lifted.

"The details and regulations related to the import of the iPhone will be announced in the nearest future," Telecommunications Minister Satar Hashemi said in a post on X.

He gave no further details but said the move was "supported" by President Masud Pezeshkian.

The ban -- aimed at limiting foreign currency spending as the country reels from crippling economic sanctions over its nuclear program -- was put in place in February 2023, outlawing the sale or import of the 14 and 15 series iPhones.

It didn't apply to iPhone 13 models and lower, creating a massive black market in a country where having an Apple-brand device is seen as a status symbol. Before the ban, analyst estimates showed around 1-in-3 smartphones were iPhones.

The U.S. tech giant itself doesn't have an official presence in Iran as it is barred from doing business in the country due to U.S. sanctions.

A landmark deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and world powers in 2015 restricted Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions.

However, Iran expanded its program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites after then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

Tehran and Washington have not had diplomatic relations since 1980, when U.S. President Jimmy Carter broke off ties amid the Iran hostage crisis.

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah on October 28 named Naim Qassem as its new secretary-general, picking him from what was a seemingly small field of candidates.

Qassem, who had served as Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991, takes over from longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in a massive Israeli air strike on September 27.

Nasrallah’s expected successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed by the Israelis a week later, leaving the group with little choice but to pick Qassem.

Hezbollah -- which also has a political party represented in Lebanon’s parliament -- is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.

Qassem is often credited with leading Hezbollah’s efforts to transition from a mainly militant group into a dominant political force in Lebanon, with his writings mostly focused on the ideological and religious underpinnings of the group, rather than military strategy.

The appointment of an experienced political figure may suggest that Hezbollah is preparing to talk to Israel to end the ongoing conflict, though Israel has shown no interest in meeting.

Born in 1953 in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Fila, Qassem joined Hezbollah in the early years of its formation in the 1980s. While not a founding member, he rose through the ranks quickly and was named deputy secretary-general to Abbas al-Musawi, the then-chief of Hezbollah and one of its founders.

Following Musawi’s death in an Israeli operation a year after he received the appointment, Nasrallah was named Hezbollah’s new boss and Qassem retained his position.

Like Nasrallah, Qassem has very close ties with Tehran. Unlike his predecessor, however, his trips to Iran have not been covert. He has frequently been photographed with Iranian officials and traveled to Tehran in July to attend the inauguration of President Masud Pezeshkian.

The United States labeled Qassem a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2018 and later sanctioned him as part of a wider crackdown on Hezbollah’s financial network.

Leading the group’s political efforts, Qassem has been heavily involved in organizing Hezbollah’s political campaigns since it began participating in parliamentary elections in 1992.

Qassem has been crucial in framing Hezbollah’s ideological and religious stance. He published a book in 2005, Hezbollah: The Story From Within, which sought to offer an insider’s look into the group’s inception and stated goals, including fighting Israel.

Hezbollah has suffered significant setbacks in recent months as Israel continues to degrade its military capabilities and decapitate its leadership. Qassem is effectively the only remaining Hezbollah figure with any name recognition beyond Lebanon’s borders.

While Hezbollah’s decision-making Shura Council was not spoiled for choice in picking Nasrallah’s successor, the appointment of Qassem may also signal the group’s willingness to end the conflict with Israel.

“Rather than electing a primarily military figure, in choosing Naim Qassem Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for the end of the ongoing war with Israel,” Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, wrote on X.

“Hezbollah needs an experienced political interlocutor at the helm in anticipation of political negotiations with its opponents,” she added.

But Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wasted little time in dispelling the possibility of diplomacy with the Iran-backed group, writing on X about Qassem’s promotion: “Temporary appointment. Not for long.”

Germany has recalled its ambassador to Tehran following the execution of Jamshid Sharmahd after his conviction on disputed terrorism charges and summoned Iran's envoy to Berlin to answer questions about the death of the 69-year-old Iranian-German citizen.

The Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, reported that the death sentence against Sharmahd was carried out on October 28 "after final confirmation of the court's decision by the Supreme Court.”

SEE ALSO:

Rising Number Of Iranian Women Sentenced To Death Amid Surge In Executions

In a trial last year that was dismissed as a sham by Germany, the United States, and rights groups, Sharmahd was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran claims was behind a 2008 bombing of a mosque in Shiraz in which 14 people were killed and of planning other attacks in the country.

The dual citizen's family has dismissed the accusations as "ridiculous."

Germany's Foreign Ministry has denounced Sharmahd's "murder" and said German Ambassador Markus Potzel has been recalled. Before being recalled, Potzel also met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to protest the killing in "the strongest terms," the ministry said.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said Sharmahd's killing showed that an "inhumane regime rules in Tehran" and vowed that it "would have serious consequences."

Araqchi on October 29 lashed out on X at Baerbock, saying, "A German passport does not provide impunity to anyone, let alone a terrorist criminal," adding, "Enough with the gaslighting, Analena Baerbock."

Separately, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's office said on October 29 that Iranian Ambassador to Berlin Mahmud Farazandeh had been summoned by the German government to answer questions about Sharmahd's death.

SEE ALSO:

The Azadi Briefing: Sharp Rise In The Number Of Afghans Executed In Iran

The U.S. State Department referred to Iran's treatment of Sharmahd, who also had U.S. residency, as “reprehensible” and described his judicial proceedings as a “sham trial.”

"We have long made clear that we oppose the way Iran carries out executions, often in a way that fundamentally violates human rights,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on October 28.

The director of the Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, called the execution "a case of extrajudicial killing of a hostage aimed at covering up the recent failures of the hostage-takers of the Islamic republic."

Hezbollah has elected its deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, to succeed slain leader Hassan Nasrallah, the group announced on October 29.

Hezbollah is an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon and which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its military wing, not its political party.

SEE ALSO:

Israel Is Trying To 'Weaken' Hezbollah As a Political And Economic Force

"Hezbollah's (governing) Shura Council agreed to elect...Sheikh Naim Qassem as secretary-general of the party," the Iran-backed group said in a statement, more than a month after Nasrallah's killing.

"We pledge to God and the spirit of our highest and most precious martyr, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the martyrs, the fighters of the Islamic resistance, and our steadfast, patient and loyal people, to work together to achieve Hezbollah's principles and the goals, and to keep the flame of resistance alight and its banner raised until victory is achieved," the statement said.

In recent weeks, Israel has been engaged in a campaign of air strikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon that has targeted Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities in response to numerous rocket and missile attacks by the group. Those attacks have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following a terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages.

Nasrallah died last month in an Israeli air strike. His expected successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed by the Israelis a week later.

Qassem, born in Beirut in 1953 into a family originally from the south near the border with Israel, has been Hezbollah's deputy-secretary general since 1991, when he was nominated as second-in-command to Abbas al-Musawi, the group's leader who himself was killed in an Israeli strike in 1992.

Qassem kept his position when Nasrallah took over.

After Nasrallah largely disappeared from public view in the aftermath of Hezbollah's 2006 war with Israel, Qassem remained the most visible senior figure of the group and has often acted as a spokesman for Hezbollah.

Qassem has been involved in organizing Hezbollah's election campaigns for Lebanon's parliament since the group first participated in elections in 1992.

With reporting by Reuters and dpa

Germany’s foreign minister on October 28 condemned Iran's “inhumane regime” after the execution of Iranian-German national Jamshid Sharmahd following his conviction on disputed terrorism charges.

The Iranian judiciary's Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, reported that the death sentence against Sharmahd was carried out on October 28 "after final confirmation of the court's decision by the Supreme Court.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock strongly condemned the Iranian regime for executing the 69-year-old Sharmahd, saying in a statement that it “shows once again what kind of inhumane regime rules in Tehran: a regime that uses death against its youth, its own population, and foreign nationals."

Baerbock added that Berlin had repeatedly made clear "that the execution of a German national would have serious consequences."

Sharmahd, who also had U.S. residency, was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran believes was behind a deadly 2008 bombing and of planning other attacks in the country.

Fourteen Iranians were killed and 210 others wounded in the attack at the Sayyid al-Shuhada Husseiniya mosque in Shiraz during a ceremony to mourn the death of Imam Hussein, the third imam of Shi'a Muslims.

Iran's Intelligence Ministry accused Sharmahd of planning the bombing, a charge his family dismissed as "ridiculous."

The U.S. State Department referred to Iran's treatment of Sharmahd as “reprehensible” and described his judicial proceedings as a “sham trial.”

"We have long made clear that we oppose the way Iran carries out executions, often in a way that fundamentally violates human rights,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on October 28.

Sharmahd was detained under unclear circumstances and accused by the Iranian Intelligence Ministry of being a member of the Iranian opposition group Kingdom Assembly of Iran, or Tondar.

Based in Los Angeles, Tondar says it aims to overthrow the Islamic republic and reestablish a monarchy similar to that of Cyrus the Great. It runs pro-Iranian opposition radio and television stations abroad, as well as social media channels.

The director of the Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, called the execution "a case of extrajudicial killing of a hostage aimed at covering up the recent failures of the hostage-takers of the Islamic republic."

"Jamshid Sharmahd was kidnapped in the United Arab Emirates and unlawfully transferred to Iran, where he was sentenced to death without a fair trial," Amiry-Moghaddam said in a statement.

The European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights said: "The unlawful abduction of Sharmahd, his subsequent torture in custody, the unfair show trial, and today's execution are exemplary of the countless crimes of the Iranian regime."

His family long maintained his innocence and say he was seized by Iranian authorities while traveling through the U.A.E.

Sharmahd's daughter, Gazelle Sharmahd, last year said her father was barely able to walk and talk due to health conditions that prison authorities failed to properly treat. She said then that her father suffered from Parkinson's disease.

With reporting by AFP and AP

The United States warned Iran at the UN Security Council on October 28 of "severe consequences" if it undertakes any further aggressive acts against Israel or U.S. personnel in the Middle East.

"We will not hesitate to act in self-defense. Let there be no confusion. The United States does not want to see further escalation. We believe this should be the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran," U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.

The Security Council met after Israel struck missile factories and other sites in Iran on October 26. It was retaliation for Iran's October 1 attack on Israel with about 200 ballistic missiles.

Iranian Ambassador to the UN Amir Saied Iravani accused Washington of being "complicit" through military support for its ally. He added that Iran “reserves its inherent right to respond at a time of its choosing to this act of aggression."

Tehran warned earlier that Israel can expect retaliation for its attack on Iranian military sites, even as the country’s supreme leader appeared noncommittal on continuing tit-for-tat strikes between the two regional foes.

Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said on October 28 that Israel will face “bitter consequences” for carrying out air strikes on Iranian territory two days earlier.

SEE ALSO:

Israel Is Trying To 'Weaken' Hezbollah As a Political And Economic Force

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, also speaking on October 28, said that Tehran would use all available tools to respond to Israel's attack.

Israel has said it successfully carried out "targeted and precise" retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26.

The strikes -- which came in response to an Iranian missile barrage against Israel on October 1 that itself was in response to the killing of an IRGC commander -- came amid fears that Israel might launch a major attack that risked seriously escalating the possibility of all-out war between the two regional powers.

Experts suggested that the strikes gave both Israel and Iran an off-ramp to avoid a broader regional war.

Iran has said that it received warning from Israel ahead of the strikes, the latest in a series of attacks and strikes between Israel and Iran related to Israel’s ongoing retaliatory war in Gaza and Iran’s role in supporting anti-Israel militant groups in the region.

Iranian officials have insisted that Iranian defenses intercepted most of the projectiles that Israel fired on October 26 but have acknowledged that four Iranian military officers were killed in the attacks.

Speaking on October 27 to the families of the Iranian military officers who were killed, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the Israeli action as a “miscalculation” but stopped short of calling for an Iranian response.

Instead, Khamenei called on government officials to “understand the capability” Iran had and advised that while it was wrong to “exaggerate” the impact of the Israeli strikes, it was also wrong to “minimize” them.

SEE ALSO:

For Wartime Russia, Rewards, Risks, And Limits In The Volatile Middle East

IRGC commander Salami was quoted by Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency as saying that Israel’s military action had "failed to achieve its ominous goals."

Salami also said the strikes were indicative of "miscalculation and helplessness" by Israel as it continues to battle the Iran-backed groups in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon.

The Palestinian group Hamas is a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group that sparked Israel’s war in Gaza with a deadly assault on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Israel has also launched an air assault and invasion against Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, part of which it controls. Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party.

Reports suggest that satellite images of the aftermath of the Israeli strikes against Iran on October 26 appeared to show damage at facilities at military bases that in the past have been linked to Iran’s secretive nuclear program and to its ballistic-missile program.

Iran has not acknowledged damage at either its Parchin or Khojir military bases, which were reportedly targeted.

Narges Mohammadi, the imprisoned Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner and rights activist, has been moved to a Tehran hospital after suffering health issues for more than two months, her husband said on October 27. “After nearly nine weeks of medical denial, Narges Mohammadi has finally been hospitalized thanks to the support of civil and human rights activists, the Free Narges Coalition, and pressure from the global community and media,” Taghi Rahmani wrote on X. Rahmani, who is living in Paris, added that the delay, “along with years of imprisonment and solitary confinement, have caused serious harm to Narges’s health.” Mohammadi, 52, has been in and out of prison for the past 20 years. She is currently serving a 12-year sentence in Tehran's Evin prison for "spreading propaganda."

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned against either exaggerating or minimizing the impact of Israeli’s October 26 retaliatory strikes against Iran.

Speaking on October 27 to the families of Iranian military officers killed in the attack, Khamenei described the strikes as a “miscalculation” by Israel.

However, while he called on government officials to “understand the capability” Iran had, he stopped short of calling for an Iranian response that would extend the series of tit-for-tat strikes between the two archfoes.

“Of course, they are exaggerating,” he said in reference to Israel, which said it successfully carried out "targeted and precise" strikes on military sites.

“Exaggerating them is wrong, but minimizing them is also wrong,” Khamenei said, adding that Iran cannot just say that “it was nothing, it didn’t matter.”

Tehran has asked Switzerland, which holds the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, to call an extraordinary session to condemn Israel following the air strikes, which came in retaliation for Iranian rocket strikes earlier this month.

While Iranian officials have insisted that Iranian defenses intercepted most of the projectiles that Israel fired, they also said four Iranian military officers were killed in the attacks.

The strikes did not target Iranian nuclear or oil-production facilities, as some had expected.

U.S. President Joe Biden on October 26 defended Israel’s right to defend itself but also expressed concern that the tit-for-tat strikes between the two bitter enemies could lead to a wider Middle East war.

Iran had been on edge for several weeks, with many government officials and observers around the globe saying they expected Israel to hit back after Iran fired around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1.

Tehran said that those strikes were in retaliation for an earlier attack by Israel that were part of military actions against Iran-allied groups -- mainly Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, triggered the current war in the Gaza Strip when its fighters crossed into Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed some 1,200 people. They also took 251 Israeli hostages.

The Israeli retaliatory war has devastated Gaza and killed more than 40,000 people, according to Hamas-led Palestinian authorities.

Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israel, saying it would continue the action until the fighting in Gaza is stopped.

Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah's political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Most of Hezbollah’s leadership has been wiped out in Israel air strikes since late September.

The UN Security Council has agreed to hold an emergency session at Tehran's request following Israel's missile strike against Iran in the early morning hours of October 26.

The Swiss mission, which holds the council's rotating presidency, said the meeting would take place on October 28 at Tehran's request and with the backing of Russia, China, and Algeria.

Earlier on October 27, Tehran asked the council to call the extraordinary session to condemn Israel following the air strikes, which came in retaliation for Iranian rocket strikes earlier this month.

Amir Saeid Iravani, the Iranian envoy to the UN, claimed in a letter to the Security Council that Israel’s “unlawful and aggressive actions” were a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and a “flagrant breach of international law and the UN Charter.”

While Iravani and other leaders in Tehran have insisted that Iranian defenses intercepted most of the projectiles that Israel fired, they also said four Iranian military officers were killed in the attacks.

Danny Danon, Israel’s UN ambassador, blasted Iran's remarks, saying Tehran was "trying to act against us in the diplomatic arena with the ridiculous claim that Israel has violated international law."

"As we have stated time and time again, we have the right and duty to defend ourselves and will use all the means at our disposal to protect the citizens of Israel," Danon said.

Israel struck Iran in the early morning hours of October 26 in what it called a "targeted and precise" attack in retaliation for earlier Iranian attacks on Israel. Israel said it solely struck military sites and not nuclear or oil production areas.

U.S. President Joe Biden on October 26 defended Israel’s right to defend itself -- Washington was apprised by Israel of the move ahead of time -- but he also expressed concerns that the tit-for-tat strikes between the two bitter enemies could lead to a wider Middle East war.

The letter called on the Security Council to “take a firm stance and condemn the Israeli regime for committing these acts of aggression strongly and unequivocally.”

SEE ALSO:

Israel's Calibrated Attack On Iran Gives Both Countries An Off-Ramp

Iravani added that Iran is requesting that the president of the Security Council “convene an urgent meeting to address this severe violation and unlawful actions and ensure accountability of this criminal regime.”

The Security Council comprises five permanent members, each with veto power – including the United States, Israel’s closest ally, making it nearly certain the council would not condemn Israel’s actions.

Along with other permanent members Russia, China, Britain, and France, 10 other countries are in the council on a rotating basis.

Iran had been on edge for several weeks, with many government officials and observers around the globe saying they expected Israel to hit back. Tehran said its strikes were retaliation for an earlier attack by Israel.

The attacks were part of Israel’s recent actions against Iran-allied groups -- mainly Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, triggered the current war when its fighters crossed into Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed some 1,200 people. They also took around 251 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.

Israeli retaliation has devastated Gaza and killed more than 40,000 people, according to Hamas-led Palestinian authorities.

Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israel, saying it would continue the action until the fighting in Gaza is stopped.

Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah's political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Most of Hezbollah’s leadership has been wiped out in Israel air strikes since late September.

With reporting by AFP and Reuters

An attack on a police patrol in southeastern Iran has left 10 officers dead, the Interior Ministry said. The attack occurred in Gohar Kuh, in Sistan-Baluchistan Province, some 1,200 kilometers southeast of the capital, Tehran. No group has claimed responsibility so far. The Tasnim news agency, which is linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported an attack on "two police patrols returning to their police station." Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni has ordered an investigation into the incident, the state-run IRNA news agency reported. Sistan-Baluchistan has been rocked by a spate of deadly attacks targeting security forces in recent months. Those previous attacks have been claimed by Jaish al-Adl, a Baluch separatist militant group that is believed to be operating out of neighboring Pakistan. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

Israel on October 26 struck military targets deep inside Iranian territory, but the extent of its promised attack was more calibrated than many feared.

The region has been on edge since October 1, after Israel promised that Iran "will pay" for launching its largest-ever direct attack -- almost 200 ballistic missiles in all -- on its archfoe.

The main concern was whether Israel would strike Iranian nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure, each carrying its own risks.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that if the scale and scope of Israel's attack remained restricted, "an off-ramp has been provided for both sides to step back from the brink."

Since the early hours of October 26, when Iranian state television acknowledged loud explosions had been heard around Tehran, news outlets and Telegram accounts that support the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sought to downplay the significance of the attack.

Some pro-IRGC channels on Telegram went as far as alleging that Israeli media were critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for launching a "disappointing" attack on Iran.

Why The Measured Response?

Israel had been under pressure for weeks from its ally the United States and Persian Gulf Arab states to formulate its response in a way that would not plunge the region into an all-out war.

In a sign of Washington's diplomatic efforts, the Pentagon moved quickly after reports of the attack to say the United States was made aware of Israel's plans beforehand, but that there was no U.S. involvement in the military move.

"U.S. pressure has had an impact and Israel may have preferred to avoid dragging Washington into an escalation the U.S. does not want, particularly ahead of the [U.S. presidential] elections," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

Gulf states were worried that an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure would have a blowback on their own oil and gas facilities, while the wider international community was concerned that hitting Iran's nuclear facilities would compel Iran to develop a bomb.

While measured, the Israeli attack still marked the largest aerial strike on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and carried a "clear message," Horowitz said.

"Israel can operate deep within Iran, relatively freely. This freedom of operation may have further expanded after last night, as Israel likely took out some of Iran's air defenses," he said.

The Iranian Army said two soldiers were killed while "repelling" the Israeli attack, suggesting that they were involved in air-defense operations. Experts say their deaths are unlikely to have much of an impact on whether and how Iran responds to Israel.

"I don't think this specific incident is going to prompt Iran in a significant way, because there has been no indication suggesting that causing casualties was Israel's aim," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Some reports say Israel telegraphed its attack to Iran, which Azizi said indicated that Israel wanted the conflict "to at least remain within certain boundaries."

The extent of the damage caused by the attack is unclear and satellite imagery will likely provide a clearer picture of the targets and scale of damage. Unless the damage is significant, experts say, Iran will either forego a response or opt for a retaliation on the lower end of the spectrum, which could involve attacks on Israel by its proxies.

Eroded Deterrence

After Iran launched a barrage of drones and missiles at Israel in April, it said it had established a "new equation" whereby every Israeli action against Iran would be met with a response.

The attack, which came in response to the suspected Israeli bombing of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, was meant to reestablish Iran's deterrence against its archrival.

Horowitz says Israel does not appear deterred and that Iran's deterrence largely relied on its regional allies and proxies, particularly on Hezbollah, the Lebanese political party and armed group that controls much of southern Lebanon.

Israel has been carrying out a weekslong aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon targeting the leadership and military capabilities of Hezbollah, which has been designated as a terrorist entity by the U.S. but the EU has blacklisted only its military wing.

SEE ALSO:

Israel Is Trying To 'Weaken' Hezbollah As a Political And Economic Force

Horowitz said Iran's deterrence "has now been eroded," which he argued will have unpredictable long-term consequences.

"The main problem, in my opinion, is that there is in fact no 'equation' -- we're in uncharted territory, which makes it very dangerous," he added.

U.S. President Joe Biden expressed hope Israeli air strikes on Iran would bring an end to the current chapter of escalation in the Middle East, even as Hezbollah fired dozens of projectiles into northern Israel.

Israel struck Iran overnight in what it called a "targeted and precise" attack in retaliation for Iranian attacks on Israel earlier this month, the military said. Four Iranian soldiers were killed in the bombing, Tehran said.

Iran has been on edge for several weeks, with many government officials and observers around the globe saying they expected Israel to hit back. Tehran said its strikes were retaliation for an earlier attack by Israel.

The Biden administration had been concerned that Israel might target Iranian oil facilities or its nuclear facilities.

Iran's economy is heavily dependent on oil exports but a strike on energy facilities could have triggered a spike in global oil prices ahead of the U.S. election, where inflation is a key issue.

"Looks like they didn't hit anything but military targets," Biden told reporters on October 26, adding that Israel had informed him prior to the strikes. "I hope this is the end."

Embed share

Explosions Heard In Tehran As Israel Launches Retaliatory Strikes (Video)

Embed share

The code has been copied to your clipboard.

---

width px height px

---

The URL has been copied to your clipboard

No media source currently available

0:00 0:00:56 0:00

Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based militant group backed by Iran, condemned the attack and fired more than 200 projectiles at Israel.

Israel said fragments from 30 rockets damaged buildings and cars in one northern town but that no one was killed.

Missile Facilities Targeted

The Israeli military said it targeted manufacturing facilities making missiles used to attack Israel over the last year.

Israeli warplanes also hit "surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel's aerial freedom of operation in Iran."

Earlier, the IDF said the attack was launched "in response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the state of Israel."

"The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7 on several fronts, including direct attacks from Iranian soil," it added.

SEE ALSO:

Israel Is Trying To 'Weaken' Hezbollah As a Political And Economic Force

Iran said that four of its soldiers had been killed in the Israeli attack, and confirmed that military sites were targeted in the region surrounding the capital, Tehran, and other parts of the country. It said the strikes caused "limited damage."

The semiofficial news agency Tasnim reported that Iran was resuming flights as normal after a brief interruption.

Iran’s currency and financial markets posted gains on October 26 after the government said the strikes caused limited damage. They had declined over the previous two weeks amid concerns over escalation.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called on Iran not to respond to the Israeli strikes.

"On the question of the strikes, I think we need to be really clear that Israel does have the right to defend itself, but we are urging -- and have been urging all sides -- to show restraint. And that is why I am very clear today: Iran should not be responding to this," Starmer said in Samoa, where he is attending a Commonwealth summit.

White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said Washington was advised of the strikes ahead of time, calling them "an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran's ballistic-missile attack against Israel on October 1."

The Pentagon, meanwhile, said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, about the strikes.

Austin reiterated that the United States was committed to Israel's security.

Israel has a right to defend itself, though Washington was determined to prevent the conflict from expanding, Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder said in a statement.

Around the same time, an Israeli air strike targeted some military sites in Syria's central and southern parts, according to the Syrian state SANA news agency.

Concerns have been growing that Iran and the United States would be drawn into a regional war amid Israel's intensifying assault in Lebanon on Hezbollah -- a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

The air strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon have been accompanied by a ground operation.

Hezbollah -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party -- has supported another Iran-backed group, Hamas, which has been the target of a withering assault by Israel over the past year.

Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, triggered the current war when its fighters crossed into Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed some 1,200 people. They also took around 251 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.

A U.S. jury has convicted a man for conspiring to avoid sanctions imposed on Iran by attempting to ship U.S.-made heavy machinery used in mining to the country.

Brian Assi, also known as Brahim Assi, was convicted on October 24 of attempting to export goods from the United States to Iran without a license and other related charges, the Justice Department said in a news release on October 25.

Assi conspired with individuals affiliated with Tehran-based Sakht Abzar Pars Co. (SAP-Iran) to export the machinery indirectly to Iran without first obtaining the required licenses from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the department said.

According to evidence presented at trial, Assi was a Middle East-based salesman for a multinational heavy-machinery manufacturer with a production plant in Florida.

Assi and his Iranian co-conspirators orchestrated the scheme by locating an Iraq-based distributor to serve as the purchaser of two blasthole drills from a subsidiary of Assi's employer.

Assi facilitated the sale of the blasthole drills and attempted to export them to Iran through Turkey, concealing any Iranian involvement in the transaction from his employer.

He claimed the drills were destined for use in Iraq, but in fact Assi intended for his Iranian co-conspirators to ship the items from Turkey to Iran in circumvention of U.S. export-control and sanctions laws.

"The defendant schemed to unlawfully export U.S.-origin mining drills to Iran, while deceiving his employer into believing that they were being sent to Iraq," Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division said in the news release.

Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary for export enforcement in the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), said the verdict makes clear that the BIS will work tirelessly to uncover schemes no matter how hard the perpetrators try to hide them.

"We take action whenever we uncover attempts to evade our sanctions, especially when those efforts are designed to support adversaries like Iran," he said.

Assi is scheduled to be sentenced in January.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned of an urgent need to reach a diplomatic resolution to the war in Gaza and Lebanon as the UN refugee agency raised concerns over Israeli air strikes, saying they endangered those fleeing the war.

Speaking before a meeting in London with Arab leaders on October 25, Blinken stressed the need to end the conflict on a day when Israeli strikes killed 38 people in Gaza and three journalists in Lebanon.

"We have a sense of real urgency in getting to a diplomatic resolution and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, such that there can be real security along the border between Israel and Lebanon," Blinken said, referring to a resolution in place following the last major Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

Israel has pledged to neutralize Iran-backed Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States the European Union, since last October when Hamas militants crossed into Israel and killed some 1,200 people and took 240 hostages.

The conflict has since spread to Lebanon, where fighters from Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, have launched almost daily attacks on Israel in support of Hamas, another Tehran-backed group.

Lebanese authorites say more than 2,500 people have been killed in the fighting in the country, while more than 1.2 million have been displaced, sparking a humanitarian crisis.

Israel's weekslong aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon began by targeting Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities.

But it has recently expanded its targets to civilian infrastructure -- including banks -- affiliated with Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party.

Blinken said on October 24 that Israel had accomplished its objective of "effectively dismantling" Hamas as he pushed the two sides to renew negotiations to reach a truce.

Meanwhile, Israeli air strikes pounded southern Lebanon, with the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) saying targets near the border with Syria included areas that the IDF claims the group uses to smuggle weapons into Lebanon.

Rula Amin, the spokeswoman for the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), said the strikes were threatening the lives of many not involved in the conflict, given that some 430,000 people have crossed to Syria since the war started.

"The attacks on the border crossings are a major concern," Amin said.

"They are blocking the path to safety for people fleeing conflict."

Israel's weekslong aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon has targeted the leadership and military capabilities of Hezbollah.

Now, Israel has expanded its targets and hit civilian infrastructure, including banks, affiliated with Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

Experts say Israel's aim is to erode Hezbollah not just as a military power but also a political and economic force in Lebanon. Hezbollah is a U.S.-designated a terrorist organization, although the EU has only blacklisted its military wing.

"Beyond the degradation of the military capabilities, personnel, and armaments, there is certainly an Israeli attempt to weaken Hezbollah politically, socially, and financially," says Eran Etzion, a former Israeli diplomat and ex-deputy head of Israel's National Security Council.

SEE ALSO:

For Wartime Russia, Rewards, Risks, And Limits In The Volatile Middle East

On October 21, Israeli air strikes targeted the branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association (AQAH), which is affiliated with Hezbollah.

The bank offers financial services to civilians in areas where Hezbollah has strong support. But Israel and the United States accuse it of serving as a front for the group to fund its military activities.

Israel's targeting of the AQAH branches "marks an expansion in terms of the types of targets that Israel is hitting," says Etzion. But it does not mean Israel is attempting to completely dismantle Hezbollah, he adds.

Experts say destroying Hezbollah is not Israel's objective, not least because that is an unrealistic goal. Instead, they said, Israel is trying to degrade its military capabilities and political base.

"Hezbollah is the predominant political power in Lebanon, and if it is militarily significantly weakened, that would also reduce its political power," says Joost Hiltermann, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group.

Under Lebanon's sectarian political system, the president is a Christian, the prime minister is a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament is a Shi'ite Muslim.

Hezbollah, whose power base is among Shi'a, has representatives at the ministerial and parliamentary levels. Its alliance with non-Shi'ite parties also gives it further political clout.

Embed share

Israel Strikes Southern Lebanon, Fires Missile Interceptor Above Haifa (Video)

Embed share

The code has been copied to your clipboard.

---

width px height px

---

The URL has been copied to your clipboard

No media source currently available

0:00 0:00:41 0:00

Hiltermann questioned whether Israel had the ability to effect political change in Lebanon. Iran-backed Hezbollah is more powerful than even the Lebanese Army, and smaller political factions in Lebanon do not have the military force or political clout to push it out completely, he said.

After invading Lebanon in 1982, Israel attempted and failed to reshape Lebanon's political scene by bringing a pro-Israeli Christian party to power.

"There is a recognition that Israel's abilities in that particular sphere are limited," says Etzion.

For Netanyahu, It's Personal

Observers say Israel's civilian and military leaders are split over how to approach the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah.

One camp wants to wind down the war and secure a political settlement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. That would include Hezbollah fighters retreating from near the Israeli border and UN peacekeeping forces ensuring security along the border.

The other camp, which includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is looking to expand the conflict into a "full-fledged regional war" involving both Iran and the United States, Etzion says.

Israel has vowed to strike Iran in retaliation for Tehran's massive missile attack on October 1. Many worry that an Israeli attack will result in an escalating cycle of tit-for-tat strikes that will spiral into a war engulfing the entire region.

Netanyahu's primary goal "is to sustain his grip on power and to make sure he's not ousted," Etzion says. "He has a clear political, personal, and criminal interest in perpetuating the war."

Netanyahu's critics blame him for the security lapses that resulted in the October 7 attack by U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Netanyahu is also facing serious corruption charges, and his detractors say the prime minister is trying to indefinitely postpone his own trial.

On October 16, Russian air strikes hit a furniture workshop, a sawmill, and an olive press in Syria's Idlib Province, killing 10 civilians, including a child, according to the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the White Helmets civil defense force.

Two days later, Russian President Vladimir Putin was playing the Middle East peacemaker at a meeting with journalists from countries in the BRICS grouping of nations ahead of a summit this week, saying Moscow is ready to do whatever it can to end what he called the "terrible strikes on civilian targets in the Gaza Strip" and offering Moscow's services as a mediator.

"I very much hope that an escalation of this conflict can be avoided," Putin said.

While deadly Russian bombings in Syria contradict that claim, the desire to avoid a wider war may be genuine: The Kremlin is comfortable with the current level of violence in the Middle East because it can take advantage of the mayhem to further its own interests in the region, in Ukraine, and worldwide, analysts say -- but Moscow is wary of a more massive conflagration.

"War, disorder, and chaotic U.S. policy have made it easier for Russia to maneuver" in the Middle East, Thanassis Cambanis, director of Century International, a branch of The Century Foundation, a U.S.-based think tank, said in an e-mailed comment to RFE/RL.

There are several reasons why the current level of bloodshed and volatility in the Middle East suits Moscow.

One is what Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy, calls the "distraction dividend." The crisis draws the world's attention away from Ukraine, where Moscow's forces are killing civilians almost daily in a brutal invasion that is headed for a fourth year with no end in sight.

It forces Washington and its allies to expend cash, weapons, and resources in the Middle East even as they struggle to keep Russia in check in a war in Europe whose result will have major consequences for the West.

In addition to that practical benefit, there's a propaganda plus that may be even more important for Putin, who casts the war in Ukraine as part of a civilizational standoff with the United States and the European Union and is seeking to get as much of the world as possible close to Russia's side as he can.

'A Growing Tilt'

Since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022, "confrontation with the West over Ukraine has become the defining logic driving Russian policy" in the Middle East, Notte, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told RFE/RL.

LISTEN: As it focuses on its war against Ukraine, Russia is also seeking to leverage violence in the Middle East to improve its global standing and condemn the West.

Embed share

'Distraction Dividend': Moscow's Aims And Actions In The Middle East

by RFE/RL

Embed share

The code has been copied to your clipboard.

The URL has been copied to your clipboard

---

No media source currently available

0:00 0:37:11 0:00

Direct link

• 128 kbps | MP3
• 64 kbps | MP3

Pop-out player

Against that backdrop, Israel's attacks in Gaza and Lebanon are a rich vein for Moscow to mine as it courts countries in the Global South and around the world, portrays the violence in the Middle East as the product of misguided and destructive policies of the West, and of the United States in particular.

For the Kremlin, using the Middle East crisis and the war in Gaza as ammunition against Washington is a "no-brainer," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

It "really does hurt the U.S., not just in…the Middle East but internationally, including in the United States," Vatanka told RFE/RL.

At the same time, however, Russia's leverage in the Middle East has limits. As it stands, Russia can punch above its weight in the region, claiming a substantial role without having to do very much, but the eruption of a wider war could lay those weaknesses bare.

The war against Ukraine has fueled Moscow's "growing tilt towards the anti-Western forces in the region," Notte said.

That means Iran, which provides Russia with weapons and helps it skirt sanctions, and what Tehran calls the "Axis of Resistance": groups including Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group; Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is also designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing; and the Huthi rebels in Yemen.

Limited Leverage

But Russia is still engaged in a balancing act in the Middle East: It does not want to alienate Israel or the Persian Gulf states too much. On the flip side, it has little or no chance of turning countries in the region against the United States, even if they can cooperate in some areas.

Russia and Iran have "very different systems, very different world views" and are united mainly by anti-Americanism, Vatanka said.

"Can Russia take that model and expand it to…other countries in the region, like Turkey? The answer is no," he said. "Just because a country joins the [Shanghai Cooperation Organization] or BRICS doesn't mean it's willing to jump teams, if you will," and abandon the United States.

Furthermore, despite warm words and treaties -- like the "comprehensive strategic partnership" pact that Russia is expected to sign soon with Iran -- Moscow's embrace of Tehran and its allies goes only as far as the Kremlin believes its own interests will take it, at least for now.

"The Russians…don't want to empower the 'Axis of Resistance.' They want to use the 'Axis of Resistance,'" he said.

For the time being, Vatanka said, Putin wants to preserve the status quo in the region, as precarious and bloody as it may be.

Others agree.

'A Certain Impotence'

"The amount of tension and the developments have so far not threatened Russian interests or Russian positions in the region," Notte said. "But we could sort of be stepping over a tipping point, especially if there are Israeli strikes against Iran, or a significant deterioration in Syria, where that balance could shift and…the risks start outweighing some of the benefits."

Because the war in Ukraine is "its priority and demands so much bandwidth from Russia," Moscow "has not wanted to see a situation in Syria where there's significantly enhanced instability or Russia would need to…step up its efforts there," she said.

As for Iran, an Israeli attack could put its defense industry under strain, she said, "something that Russia probably does not want to see, given this enhanced partnership that they have with the Iranians."

"Another thing that would happen if the Israelis were to attack Iran proper is that a certain Russian impotence would potentially be exposed, because I don't see that Russia could get involved in the defense of Iran in the case of this kind of escalation and Israeli retaliation," Notte said. "Russia would probably have to sit on the sidelines, which could…harm Russia's reputation."

Moscow will continue to try to maintain balance, but "the more the ‘Axis of Resistance' will come under pressure in the region, the more we might also see Russia giving certain assistance to Iranian partners like the Huthis, like Hezbollah," she said. "Russia might be more forward-leaning."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called on Israel and the Iran-backed groups it is fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon to call a truce after the Israeli military said it had killed a top official for Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, who had been widely expected to be the group’s next leader.

"Now is the time to turn those successes into an enduring strategic success," Blinken told reporters as he prepared to leave Jordan on October 23 for Saudi Arabia on a tour of the region for talks on how to bring the current fighting to an end.

Late on October 22, Israel said Hashem Safieddine, a senior figure inside Hezbollah, was killed in an air strike on the Lebanese capital on October 3, ending weeks of speculation as to whether the man expected to take over the group was alive. The previous Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Israeli air strikes in Beirut on September 27.

Safieddine headed Hezbollah's executive branch, which oversees the group's political affairs. He was also a member of the decision-making Shura Council as well as the Jihad Council, which runs the group's military operations.

The United States designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by Washington, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

The current war between Israel and the Iran-backed groups Hezbollah and Hamas -- which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union -- was triggered after Hamas militants made an incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people. They also took some 240 people back to Gaza as hostages.

Israel has since launched a withering offensive that, according to the Hamas-led Heath Ministry in Gaza, has seen almost 43,000 people killed while displacing virtually all of Gaza's 2.3 million people.

Israeli forces have killed many senior figures from Hezbollah and Hamas, including the Palestinian militant group's leader, Yahya Sinwar, who was suspected of being the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks.

Sinwar was killed last week by the Israeli Defense Forces, prompting senior officials from the United States and other Israeli allies to seize on what they see as an opportunity for a new scenario for the region.

Israel has also been under pressure from many allies, including the United States, for the rising number of civilian casualties in Gaza as a result of the war, and accusations that it has been hindering aid supplies to the territory, where hundreds of thousands are living in a growing humanitarian crisis.

SEE ALSO:

Palestinians Count The Toll Of Israel's Devastating War In Gaza

"The focus needs to be on getting the hostages home, ending this war and having a clear plan for what follows," Blinken said on October 23.

Neither side, however, appears prepared, at least publicly, to seize on the so-called opportunity Blinken and others say is there for the taking.

Just hours before Blinken spoke, the Israeli military leveled a suburban Beirut building that it said housed Hezbollah facilities.

The strikes and a later one that sent thick columns of flames shooting into the night sky came shortly after an Israeli military spokesman issued evacuation warnings for the neighborhood.

Another strike came with no warning hitting the nearby office of a pro-Iran broadcaster, the station said. It said the office had been empty since the conflict began. Lebanon's Health Ministry said one person was killed and five others, including a child, were wounded.

Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a statement late on October 23 that it had escalated its attacks on Israel, using "precision missiles" for the first time, and launched new types of drones on Israeli targets.

It later said it had targeted an Israeli military factory on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

The Israeli military said four projectiles were identified as having been fired from Lebanon. Two were intercepted and one fell in an open area. There was no immediate indication of any defense facility around Tel Aviv having been hit.

Meanwhile, Hamas continues to refuse to release the remaining hostages it holds unless Israel stops its attacks in Gaza.

With reporting by Reuters

U.S. intelligence officials warned on October 22 that "foreign actors" from Russia, China, and Iran are intent on fanning narratives to divide Americans ahead of the November 5 U.S. presidential election and beyond.

The officials briefed reporters in a conference call, saying that influence actors from the three countries have learned from previous U.S. elections and are better prepared to exploit opportunities to stoke unrest.

The officials said foreign actors could consider physical threats and violence and are highly likely to conduct disinformation operations to create uncertainty and undermine the election process.

The foreign actors "remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans' confidence in the U.S. democratic system," said an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), who briefed reporters on the call on condition of anonymity.

SEE ALSO:

U.S. Charges Iranians With Hacking Attack On Trump Campaign

These foreign actors could rely on already deployed disinformation and cyberoperations but might also consider physical threats and violence, the ODNI official added.

"Some foreign actors also have the capacity to stoke protests and take violent actions during [the post-election] period. In particular, Iran and Russia are probably willing to at least consider tactics that would contribute to such violence," the official said.

The officials on the call said that while Russia, China, and Iran pose the main threats in foreign election influence activities, they have seen no collaboration between them.

They added that while foreign actors might seek to disrupt voting on election day through already established disinformation campaigns, the voting system is secure enough that they could not alter the outcome, and there is no indication that Russia, China, or Iran is plotting significant attacks on election infrastructure.

The three countries have all rejected claims they are seeking to meddle with the U.S. election.

According to the ODNI official, such actors are using social media to influence presidential and congressional races, and some social media posts are likely to be generated by artificial intelligence.

SEE ALSO:

Early Results Give Pro-Europe President Sandu Lead In Moldova Vote But EU Referendum Lagging

As an example, the ODNI official pointed to a post on X this month generated by what he called Russian influence actors that made a false allegation against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, the Democratic Party's vice presidential candidate.

Intelligence agencies assessed that Russian influence actors created the content, the ODNI official said. A review by U.S. intelligence agencies showed "several indicators of manipulation" consistent with the actions of Russian actors, the official said.

The content includes baseless accusations about Walz’s time as a teacher. Digital researchers, including analysts at Microsoft, previously linked the video to Russia, but federal authorities had not confirmed the connection.

U.S. intelligence agencies have been assessing for months that Russia would prefer that former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, return to the White House over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat.

The intelligence officials said they expected more Russian amplification of protests if Harris wins the election.

"Russia would prefer the former president to win and they would seek to more aggressively undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect (Harris)," the ODNI official said.

With reporting by Reuters and AP

Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN agency giving aid to Palestinians, accused Israel on October 21 of denying aid to northern parts of the Gaza Strip and called for a cease-fire as a step "to putting an end to this endless nightmare." "The Israeli Authorities continue to deny humanitarian missions to reach the north with critical supplies including medicine and food for people under siege," he wrote in a post on X. Lazzarini called for aid organizations to be allowed access to the northern Gaza Strip, including the group he heads, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Gaza has been ravaged by a war triggered by the Iran-backed Hamas's October 7, 2023 incursion into Israel, which saw the militant group that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union kill some 1,200 people and take around 240 hostages. Israel has since launched a withering war against Hamas, vowing to cripple it.