German Election Results Match Poll Predictions, Handing Victory To CDU/CSU 

PRAGUE -- The headlines indicate that the far-right AfD party had its best-ever result in the German parliamentary elections, finishing second with some 20 percent of the vote, nearly doubling the result they got four years ago.

But there will be a sigh of relief in many EU capitals, governed by centrists, as well as inside Germany itself, that the vote results matched what polls had long predicted.

Despite vocal endorsements from the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, as well as far-right populist leaders, from both the United States and Europe, the AfD came in a distant second behind the establishment center-right CDU/CSU party.

The CDU/CSU finished top with 28.5 percent of the vote and Merz has indicated that he would prefer to have just one coalition partner, avoiding the unwieldy three-party set-up of the previous German government that was marred by infighting, which eventually led to snap elections.

As long predicted, it will be up to Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, to try to piece together a government.

And the only thing that is more or less sure is that the AfD -- which received 20.8 percent -- won’t be part of those talks, shunned as they are by the other major political parties in Germany.

The question is if Merz will get his way. The numbers indicate he might have to take in at least two parties to get a parliamentary majority, although seat allocations could differ slightly from the overall vote total.

The two prime candidates are the center-left SPD, led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which lost nearly 10 percentage points compared to four years ago, getting just 16.4 percent and the Greens, who finished fourth with 11.6 percent.

However, some initial seat estimates indicate the CDU/CSU and the SPD together could manage a slight majority by the two groups and form a so-called "grand coalition."

Before the election, Merz said he wanted to have a new government in place by Easter, April 20.

Following the vote, he said that “we have nearly eight weeks until Easter now and I think that should be enough time — the maximum time — to form a government in Germany.”

The key thing to look out for is if the liberal FDP and Sahra Wagenknecht and her far-left BSW party clear the required 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. If both parties manage that, Merz will likely be forced to look for more than one coalition partner.

The big issue is now how long it will take to form a new government with Merz indicating that he wants it all done and dusted by the latter half of April, at the very latest.

The faster he manages, the better, given that there is a bulging in-tray waiting for the government. The German economy has endured two consecutive years of recession and many voters will expect immigration rules to be tightened, with several deadly attacks by immigrants linked to radical Islam capturing the headlines in recent months.

But the biggest immediate challenge will be how to deal with the new U.S. administration in and making sure that Europe has a say in any potential deal made between the United States and Russia over Ukraine. Merz does share certain traits with U.S. President Donald Trump: they both cut their teeth in business and are keen golfers for example, but will that be enough?

Following the release of exit polls, Trump hailed the results, posting on his social media platform that the conservatives' victory was "great day for Germany."

""Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration," Trump wrote.

A likely, impending transatlantic trade war will hit the export-oriented German economy hard, with Trump saying he will soon impose steep tariffs on German cars and most German political parties, including CDU/CSU, are adamant that they want to continue to support Ukraine both economically and politically.

Many challenges will face the new German chancellor. And Europe will be looking to Germany to take the lead on many issues. For example, other European countries will be looking to Germany to see if it is willing to send troops to oversee a potential cease-fire in Ukraine. And they will also be looking to see whether Germany is willing to drop its traditional opposition to borrowing, so that EU bonds can be issued by the union as a whole, in order to allow the continent to quickly increase its defense spending.

Following the election, Merz said it was too early to discuss the potential deployment of peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.

"I see it the same way as the chancellor (Scholz). This is not a question at all at the moment," said.

Scholz on February 18 said discussions over sending peacekeepers were "completely premature" and "highly inappropriate" while the war is ongoing.

Merz also expressed concerns about the future of the transatlantic alliance in the face of consistent remarks by Trump over the viability of NATO -- "or if we need to develop independent European defense capabilities much faster."

"That is my absolute priority, and I have absolutely no illusions about what is happening in America," said Merz, who has long favored strong U.S. ties.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Merz on his party's victory, writing on social media that "a clear voice from the voters, and we see how important this is for Europe."

"Europe must be able to defend itself, develop its industries, and achieve the necessary results. Europe needs shared successes, and those success will bring even greater unity to Europe," he wrote.

With reporting by