Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
A new report by the United Nations has documented a significant uptick in violence in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
In its quarterly report, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) noted a 53 percent rise in violence between May 14 and July 31 compared to the same period last year.
UNAMA recorded 2,127 security-related incidents. Many of the attacks were carried out by anti-Taliban resistance groups, including the National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, as well as the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) extremist group.
There was also an increase in armed clashes, detonations of improvised explosive devices, and land disputes.
Why It's Important: Rising violence in Afghanistan contradicts the Taliban's claims that it has restored order in the country three years after it seized power.
But the increasing violence is unlikely to lead to the immediate downfall of the Taliban government or trigger a civil war.
The two main anti-Taliban resistance groups carried out a total of 73 attacks during the reporting period. Most were "hit-and-run" attacks and targeted assassinations of Taliban members.
UNAMA said that "the armed opposition continued to pose no significant challenge to the Taliban's hold on territorial control."
IS-K has continued its attacks against the Taliban, religious minorities, and foreigners, despite a brutal Taliban crackdown.
"The simmering levels of violence are concerning," said Graeme Smith, a senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Still, the latest figures make it clear that the country remains a postwar environment."
A database of violent attacks and fatalities by ACLED, a data-collection, analysis, and crisis-mapping project, shows that violence peaked during the summer of 2022 after the Taliban’s return to power a year earlier. Attacks reached their lowest levels in January of this year but have peaked since then.
"Some of these trends are seasonal," Smith said of the historical pattern of violence in Afghanistan, which rises in the warmer months and declines in winter.
What's Next: Anti-Taliban resistance groups are likely to continue their low-level conflict against the Taliban.
A mostly Pashtun group dominated by clerics, the Taliban has monopolized power and sidelined many of the country’s ethnic and religious groups as well as political factions.
IS-K is likely to remain the biggest threat to the Taliban, which has eroded but not eliminated its rival's capabilities.
What To Keep An Eye On
A diplomatic spat has erupted after a Taliban diplomat refused to stand up when the Pakistani national anthem was played during an event in the country's northwest.
Islamabad complained to Kabul and summoned Afghanistan's most senior diplomat in Pakistan in protest over the incident on September 17.
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry accused the Taliban diplomat of "disrespect" and said the incident was "reprehensible."
The Taliban has not officially commented on the incident. But pro-Taliban figures on social media rejected Islamabad's criticism. They said the diplomat did not stand up during the anthem because the Taliban has banned music and considers it forbidden.
Why It's Important: This diplomatic spat marks a new low in bilateral relations marked by regular accusations and threats, border clashes and closures, and Pakistan's expulsion of Afghan refugees.
Islamabad has pressured the Taliban to rein in or expel members of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan extremist group. Islamabad has accused the Taliban of sheltering the militants, which have increased their attacks in Pakistan.
That's all from me for now.
Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
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