Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
Iran and Pakistan have announced separate plans to forcefully deport millions of undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants.
Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on September 27 that 5 million Afghans who he said were living “illegally” in the Islamic republic will be deported.
Vahidi said the authorities were “close to implementing the plan,” although he did not provide further details.
Imran, an Afghan living in Iran’s southwestern city of Shiraz, told Radio Azadi that the authorities were already “gathering Afghans from cities irrespective of whether they have legal documents or not."
Meanwhile, Pakistani Foreign Minster Jalil Abbas Jilani said on September 28 that Islamabad plans to deport over 1 million Afghans who do not have valid residency documents.
Even before their announcements, Tehran and Islamabad have detained and deported thousands of undocumented Afghans in recent years.
Iran and Pakistan have hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021 fueled another exodus, with an estimated 3.6 million Afghans fleeing their homeland. Around 70 percent of them escaped to Iran, according to the United Nations.
Why It's Important: The forced deportations of millions of impoverished Afghans is likely to further aggravate the devastating humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, where millions are on the verge of starvation.
The Taliban government is unlikely to be able to absorb millions of returning refugees and migrants.
The forced deportations of Afghan migrants, many of whom send remittances back to their families, is also likely to cause a financial shock to many households.
Some Afghans, including journalists, activists, and members of the former Afghan government and security forces, could face reprisals from the Taliban if they return to their homeland.
Iran and Pakistan’s plans to deport undocumented Afghans come amid their worsening ties with the Taliban.
Taliban fighters have been engaged in separate deadly border clashes with Iranian and Pakistani forces in recent months. Islamabad has accused the Taliban of harboring anti-Pakistan militants, while Tehran has sparred with the Taliban over cross-border water resources.
What's Next: The UN has called for all returns to Afghanistan to be voluntary and urged neighboring countries to offer protection to Afghans seeking security.
But with Iran and Pakistan grappling with economic crises -- and as tensions with the Taliban escalate -- both countries appear unlikely to continue hosting millions of Afghans.
What To Keep An Eye On
Russia appears to have signaled a renewed interest in Afghanistan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, called on the Taliban to form an “ethnopolitical inclusive government" in Kabul, in a move that he said could lead to Moscow potentially recognizing the Taliban government.
Kabulov’s comments came ahead of the meeting of the so-called Moscow Format, a regional forum on Afghanistan, on September 29. Launched in 2017, the format brings together regional powers and Afghanistan’s neighbors with the stated aim of bringing peace to Afghanistan.
Why It's Important: By hosting the regional conference, Moscow could be signaling its desire to be a player in Afghanistan.
Last month, Moscow hosted Ahmad Massud, the exiled leader of the National Resistant Front of Afghanistan (NRF), an anti-Taliban armed group.
The NRF is the largest group fighting the Taliban but has struggled to attract foreign support. Massud’s visit was seen as an effort to win support for the NRF and pressure the Taliban.
Washington has categorically ruled out support for a new armed conflict in Afghanistan.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
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