Azerbaijani Lawmaker Says 'Strong Possibility' Russia Shot Down Passenger Jet

An Azerbaijani lawmaker said there is a "very strong" possibility that the crash of a passenger jet earlier this week was caused by Russian air-defense systems on alert for Ukrainian drone attacks.

Speculation has mounted that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane, which was headed from Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia’s Chechnya region, may have been hit by an air-defense missile before crossing the Caspian Sea and crashing near Aqtau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 passengers and crew.

Lawmaker Hikmat Babaoghlu told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service in an interview on December 27 that such an explanation is most likely "closest to the truth."

"This is only a possibility, but a very strong one, and the observations and conclusions drawn so far support the idea that the plane being shot down is the closest to the truth," he said.

Hikmat Babaoghlu

"In this specific case, the incident involves Azerbaijan's airliner being damaged within the territory of the Russian Federation, with the event causing the crash occurring there. Therefore, there is no doubt that responsibility falls on the Russian Federation. If these assumptions are correct, accountability also undoubtedly rests with Russia," he added.

Azerbaijan Official: Passenger Plane Crash Caused By 'External Interference' (Video)

Kazakh experts arrived on December 27 to examine the crash site and black box of the ill-fated passenger jet, as speculation -- and evidence -- mounted suggesting that a Russian air-defense missile may have inadvertently struck the craft.

Even as the probe intensifies, countries with victims aboard the plane -- Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan -- continue to mourn their dead and treat the injured from the crash of the Embraer 190 aircraft.

Since the crash, uncertainty has rocked the aviation industry throughout the Caucasus.

An Azerbaijan Airlines flight bound for the Russian spa town of Mineranlye Vody took off from Baku on December 27 but then abruptly headed back after receiving a flight information notice that Russian airspace it was due to fly through was closed.

Azerbaijan Airlines later said it is suspending
flights to several Russian cities, including Mineralnye Vody, Sochi, Volgograd, Ufa, Samara, Grozny, and Makhachkala.

Speculation has swirled around the tragedy, with some experts pointing to holes seen in the plane's tail section as a possible sign that it could have come under fire from Russian air-defense systems engaged in thwarting Ukrainian drone attacks.

White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters on December 27 that the United States has seen signs suggesting that the jet could have been hit by Russian air defense systems.

U.S. experts "have seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems," he said.

Kirby added that Washington has “offered our assistance…should they need it" to the ongoing investigation being conducted by Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Evidence, yet to be corroborated by authorities, includes footage from inside the plane before the crash, images of the hole-pocked tail section after the crash, a survivor's comments, and accounts indicating there was a suspected drone attack around the time the plane apparently tried to land in Grozny.

Reuters quoted an Azerbaijani source familiar with the investigation as saying results indicated the plane was hit by a Pantsir-S air-defense system, a self-propelled antiaircraft gun and missile system designed by Russia.

SEE ALSO: Mounting Evidence Suggests Russian Air Defenses Hit Passenger Jet Before Crash

It was not immediately clear where the black box would be examined. The process can be highly technical, and not all countries have the resources to undertake such work.

Gulag Aslanli, a leader of Azerbaijan's opposition Musavat party, told RFE/RL that an international commission was needed to investigate the incident.

"Russia cannot be allowed there," he said. "If the black box is going to be taken to Russia and examined there, I will look at its outcome with suspicion."

Officials said it typically takes about two weeks to fully assess a black box, although various conditions can alter that time frame.

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Commenting on unconfirmed reports that the plane may have been shot down by a missile, Kazakh Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbaev said it was "not possible" to say what may have damaged the aircraft until the investigation is finished.

"Real experts are looking at all this, and they will make their conclusions. Neither Kazakhstan, Russia, nor Azerbaijan, of course, is interested in hiding information, so it will be brought to the public," Ashimbaev said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made a similar comment, reiterating Moscow's previous stance on the deadly incident.

"An investigation is under way, and until the conclusions of the investigation, we do not consider we have the right to make any comments and we will not do so," Peskov told reporters on December 27.

Russia's Interfax news agency quoted Russian officials as saying the plane, commissioned in 2013, had passed a maintenance check in October and that the pilot had "vast experience" with more than 15,000 flying hours.

Azerbaijan Airlines President Samir Rzayev also told reporters the plane had been fully serviced in October and that there was no sign of technical malfunction.

But he said it was too early to determine a cause: "The plane has been found with a black box. After detailed research, all aspects will be clear."

Azerbaijan Airlines Boss Says Black Box Found, Lauds 'Heroic' Pilots (VIDEO)

The airline suspended flights along the route of the crash pending completion of the investigation.

Azerbaijan's Prosecutor-General's Office said that "all possible scenarios are being examined."

As the first seven survivors arrived back in the country on December 26, Azerbaijan observed a national day of mourning. Burials of four of those who lost their lives were conducted during the day, with additional funerals expected in the coming hours and days.

Officials in Baku said the wounded arrived on a special flight arranged by Azerbaijan's Emergency Affairs Ministry and that the injured, many with severe burn wounds, were accompanied by medical professionals.

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Ayhan Solomon, Azerbaijan’s chief consul in Aqtau, told reporters that 26 of those killed were Azerbaijani citizens.

He said 16 Azerbaijani citizens survived. “Of those, 10 to 12 are in good condition and others remain critically stable,” he added.

Azerbaijan Airlines' supervisory board said on December 26 that the families of those killed will be compensated with 40,000 manats ($23,460), while those injured would receive 20,000 manats ($11,730).

Along with the 42 Azerbaijani citizens, those aboard Flight J2-8243 were listed as 16 Russian nationals, six from Kazakhstan, and three Kyrgyz citizens, officials said.

The survivors include nine Russian citizens, who were flown to Moscow on December 26 by the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry. Three of the Russian survivors were in critical condition, according to Russian health authorities.