As NATO leaders gathered in Washington for a landmark summit and issued "irreversible" support for Ukraine and deep criticism of Beijing for its support of Russia, China was holding maneuvers with Belarusian troops on the alliance's eastern edge.
The 11-day joint military exercises named Eagle Assault 2024 kicked off on July 8 -- the eve of the NATO summit -- and are under way near the Belarusian city of Brest, some 5 kilometers from the Polish border.
The first of their kind between China and Belarus, the drills reflect growing defense ties between the two countries and are designed to send a message of resolve toward NATO, analysts and officials say.
"The timing is hardly a coincidence," Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL. "There are lots of elements coming together here to send a clear message that China is deepening its ties with a like-minded country in Europe that supports its broader aims."
The military exercises are “part of a pattern," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 11 in at the alliance's summit in Washington. "It just confirms how authoritarian regimes are aligning more and more and also how China is coming closer to NATO in Europe, in Africa, the Arctic, and elsewhere.”
At a July 5 briefing ahead of the drills -- which the Belarusian and Chinese Defense Ministries have billed as anti-terrorism exercises -- Vladimir Kupriyanyuk, the deputy head of the General Staff of the Belarusian armed forces, said the maneuvers were a response to the "West's aggressive foreign policy toward Belarus" and to "Ukrainian provocation."
"The NATO grouping on the border with Belarus is growing rapidly, which leads to an increase in tension in the region," the Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a post on Telegram, as it warned of a "harsh reaction" should anyone "cross Belarusian borders."
The ongoing exercises take place just days after Belarus became the 10th member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional defense bloc helmed by China and Russia.
At the NATO summit in Washington, the alliance moved from blander comments made previously about China and openly accused it of supplying Russia's war effort against Ukraine. The joint declaration by all 32 NATO members called Beijing "a decisive enabler of Russia's war" and warned about unspecified consequences to "its interests and reputation" for enabling "the largest war in Europe in recent history."
Beijing promptly called the accusations "lies and smears," and said that the exercises were not aimed at any country. But the declaration and the ongoing drills are likely to contribute to rising tensions between China and NATO.
"There's been a slow update for Western allies when it comes to what China's game with Russia and countries like Belarus actually is," said Arho Havren. "But there is a growing recognition to focus on what China does and not what it says."
NATO's Eastern Flank
The Belarusian Defense Ministry said that as part of the joint exercises, Belarusian and Chinese troops will practice airborne assaults, a river crossing, and residential-area combat.
The Chinese Defense Ministry said in a statement that the forces will also practice hostage-rescue and counterterrorism operations.
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"What's being done now in Belarus is fairly limited as military exercises go, but for Minsk it's a valuable and convenient message to show that the regime doesn't only depend on Russia," Katia Glod, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told RFE/RL.
Belarus has been one of Russia's closest allies following its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, providing logistical support and air bases for the war while recently deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory.
For Belarus's authoritarian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the exercises come as he continues to rely heavily on Russia -- his main sponsor and ally -- since becoming a pariah in the West in 2020 following a crackdown triggered by his disputed reelection that the opposition and the West denounced as rigged.
Since then, Lukashenka has become increasingly antagonistic toward the West and NATO in particular.
In addition to offering a springboard for Russia's war effort, Poland has accused Minsk of letting thousands of undocumented migrants into Belarus and directing them towards their shared border, an entry point to the European Union.
"There is a hybrid war ongoing on the Poland-Belarus border, as well as on the Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian borders," Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said prior to the start of the Belarus-China drills.
The exercises, along with Minsk's close military ties with Russia, have also raised tensions with NATO's Baltic members.
"Lithuania is in a dangerous neighborhood," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on July 9 at the Hudson Institute in Washington. "Any attack on NATO in our region would happen through Belarus. There's no other way around it. It's plain geography."
Warming Relations
China has become another key element -- and an increasingly important economic player -- of Lukashenka's geopolitical calculus in recent years as he navigated between Beijing, Brussels, Moscow, and Washington to leverage strategic gains and secure much needed loans and investment.
Previously a very active investor in Belarus, China has not offered a new project or loan to Minsk since 2019 and seemed to have stepped back from the country amid its domestic crisis that cut Lukashenka off politically from Europe and made him a less appealing partner for Beijing.
That has left Lukashenka politically and financially dependent on Russia, though still eager to bolster ties with China.
One area where cooperation has continued to grow is the two countries' military ties, which Belarus and China have a history of, especially around technology transfers. In 2015, Minsk announced the completion of its Polonez multiple-rocket-launcher system, which military experts say uses modified Chinese designs and was developed with China's help.
The development of the Polonez came after Moscow refused to sell its Iskander missile system at a discount to Belarus, leading Lukashenka to turn to Beijing in a bid at the time to gain strategic distance from Russia.
"Once Lukashenka lost his ability to maneuver with the West, he needed another option to diversify away from a major reliance on Russia," Glod said. "China has given room to be this partner for Belarus."
Belarus's entry into the SCO is seen as part of this trend and something of a new role for Minsk as it secures its footing between China and Russia amid their own deepening partnership since Moscow launched the full-scale war against Ukraine.
Navigating that new terrain was also the topic of discussion in Washington amid the NATO summit.
The Western military alliance invited Indo-Pacific partners Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea to Washington, where they discussed how to deepen cooperation and coordinate pushback against potentially expansionist designs from Beijing in the South China Sea and elsewhere in the region.
In addition to concerns raised by Poland and Lithuania, other NATO countries close to the Ukraine war also warned how a Ukrainian defeat could embolden China.
A Russian victory "doesn't only mean that the security in Europe will be worse," Czech President Petr Pavel said at a NATO Public Forum on July 10.
"It will be much worse globally, because it will also encourage China to be more assertive and aggressive."