Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.
China's Awkward Triangle
After weeks of headlines about Pyongyang’s decision to dispatch thousands of troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, NATO and the Pentagon said this week that North Korean soldiers are in Kursk, the Russian region partly controlled by Ukrainian troops.
Here’s why that’s important for China.
Finding Perspective: The Pentagon said North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia to train and fight in the Ukraine war within “the next several weeks,” while NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed after a meeting with South Korea’s top intelligence officials that some troops were already in Kursk. The Pentagon also added that a “small number” were already there.
"The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security," Rutte told reporters in Brussels on October 28.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon said that the United States will not impose new limits on Ukraine's use of American weapons if North Korea joins Russia's war.
That came after White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said last week that if North Korean troops "do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they're fair game."
North Korean officials have not commented on the reports, which have also been echoed by Kyiv and Seoul, and the Kremlin initially dismissed reports about North Korean troops, but Russian President Vladimir Putin also did not deny their deployment when asked at last week’s BRICS summit.
The View From Beijing: The reports signal deepening military ties that have been building for the last year between Russia and North Korea -- a development that has been met with a muted response from China, with the Foreign Ministry saying last week that it was “not aware of the relevant situation."
Beijing has long been Pyongyang's most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un. China and North Korea's mutual aid and cooperation treaty from 1961 is the only existing defense treaty that China has with any country.
But Beijing has also been frustrated with Pyongyang and the instability it brings, particularly with its nuclear weapons program and threats to annihilate South Korea.
Now Pyongyang is injecting that same style of unpredictability into Ukraine, where the deployment of its troops risks a wider escalation that could start to play out in both Europe and Asia.
Why It Matters: North Korea’s deployment of troops represents a tough balancing act for China.
While China is supporting Russia indirectly in its war effort, North Korea’s involvement is a wild card and something of a strategic headache for Beijing.
North Korea’s closer relationship with Moscow could spell less Chinese influence over Pyongyang, and the involvement of North Korean troops would further strengthen Putin’s partnership with Kim, who signed a pact with the Russian leader in June.
Adding thousands of North Korean soldiers to the Ukraine war could also stoke geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and Australia.
South Korea said that it’s now considering upgrading its support for Ukraine from nonlethal aid to defensive and perhaps even offensive weapons.
None of that is good news for Beijing. Not only does the development weaken its narrative that China is a force for peace in contrast to the United States, but it also undermines its talking point that Western countries should stay out of Asian defense issues now that the Indo-Pacific is inserting itself into Europe’s security conversation.
Adding to the list of potential concerns for China is the question of what Moscow has agreed to do in return for added troops.
One obvious area could be Russian help in improving North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, something that could accelerate an arms race in the region.
But some analysts believe that Beijing might be tolerating North Korean arms shipments and personnel to Russia to ease pressure on providing direct military assistance itself.
In this reading, China might now be driving on much more unstable terrain but is still firmly in the driver’s seat. Both Moscow and Pyongyang will still prioritize their ties with Beijing over the other, and should China want to truly hit the brake pedal on where North Korea and Russia are going, it would still have leverage to do so.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. Afghanistan Gets Tariff-Free Access
China will offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its vast construction, energy, and consumer sectors, Beijing's envoy to Afghanistan said on October 24.
The Details: Impoverished and resource-rich Afghanistan remains diplomatically isolated under the Taliban and the regime in Kabul is looking to build up access to any market it can.
China, the world’s second-largest economy and which shares a small border with Afghanistan, is an obvious choice.
Beijing has sought to develop its ties with the Taliban since the militia took control of Afghanistan in 2021, but like all governments it has refrained from formally recognizing the group as the legitimate government of the country.
China’s main interests in Afghanistan are security concerns and gaining access to the country’s resource wealth.
Selling Afghanistan's lithium, copper, and iron deposits to China would help the Taliban prop up the economy, but apart from a ground-breaking ceremony and some touted memorandums, things remain at a standstill.
In terms of trade, Afghanistan exported $64 million worth of goods to China in 2023 and, according to Chinese customs data, close to 90 percent of that was shelled pine nuts.
2. The World Uyghur Congress Meets In Bosnia-Herzegovina
The World Uyghur Congress (WUC) just wrapped up its triennial meeting in Sarajevo on October 27, but ahead of the conference, the organization said it faced pressure and harassment from Chinese authorities aimed at derailing the gathering.
What You Need To Know: Zumretay Arkin, the director of global advocacy at the WUC, told my colleague Predrag Zvijerac during an interview ahead of the three-day meeting that the organization has dealt with hacking attacks, physical threats against members and their families, and even attempts to prevent the Sarajevo assembly from taking place.
The Germany-based WUC consists mainly of Uyghurs living in exile and advocates for the rights of those who remain in China.
Attempts by Chinese officials to disrupt WUC gatherings are also not unprecedented.
Ahead of the organization's last general assembly in Prague in 2021, the Marriott hotel in the Czech capital declined to host the conference, citing "political neutrality," according to e-mails obtained by Axios.
3. What To Expect From Kaja Kallas
Kaja Kallas, the EU's incoming foreign policy chief, is poised to open a new chapter in EU-China relations.
Here’s a look ahead at what she aims to do as the former Estonian prime minister prepares to start her term in Brussels.
What It Means: Kallas has called for a tougher Western response to Russia, and that is bleeding over into relations with China thanks to Beijing's increasingly close ties with the Kremlin.
In written comments to MEPs, she referred to China as only a “systemic rival,” as opposed to the official line from Brussels that calls Beijing a combined "partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival,” and said that her “priority in engaging with China will be to safeguard the EU’s geopolitical and economic security.”
Kallas added that "the most pressing challenges here are China's support for Russia" and that “Russia, Iran, North Korea, and partly China” are “malign” actors that are taking “aim at weaponizing interdependencies and exploiting the openness of our societies against us.”
Across The Supercontinent
BRICS In Waiting? BRICS officially welcomed 13 new nations as partner countries during its summit in Russia last week. The new partner countries include Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.
For Kazakhstan, the move is something of a balancing tactic after it declined becoming a full-member. This leaves the door open to becoming a member further down the road, while still keeping some distance as it bides its time about the merits of membership.
Labour’s Outreach: British Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Politico that trade is “where cooperation is possible with China” as the new Labour government looks to step up its engagement with Beijing.
Tweaking Taiwan: Chinese leader Xi Jinping asked U.S. President Joe Biden last year to change the language the United States uses when discussing its position on Taiwanese independence, according to Reuters.
Xi wanted Washington to say "we oppose Taiwan independence," rather than the current version, which is that the United States "does not support" independence for Taiwan. Biden declined to make the change.
One Thing To Watch
China is considering approving around $1.4 trillion in extra debt to be issued in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources.
China's top legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), is looking to approve the fresh fiscal package on the last day of a meeting that will be held from November 4-8.
That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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