PRAGUE -- As the European Union heads toward a crucial summit in Brussels this week, Georgia President Salome Zurabishvili says she's under no illusion as to what it will mean if her Caucasus nation fails to be given the green light to become a candidate for membership in the bloc: a loss for Georgians and a win for Russia.
The EU's 27 leaders were meeting in the Belgian capital on December 14-15 to discuss what could be a historic enlargement agreement. The key decision will be whether to give Moldova, Ukraine -- and possibly Bosnia-Herzegovina -- the go-ahead to start EU accession talks.
But they will also discuss Georgia becoming an official EU candidate country after the European Commission recommended last month that it be granted such status if and when it fulfils remaining conditions set out by the bloc.
Asked in an interview at RFE/RL headquarters in Prague on December 12 on how failing to get that status would be greeted by her compatriots, Zurabishvili, a career diplomat who became Georgia's first female president in 2018, didn't hesitate.
"Very bad...because it would mean very deep frustration, in the public opinion, even deeper after the recommendations made by the commission.... The frustration would be enormous," she said.
Just as dire, she added, would be what such a decision would mean for Moscow, which has long considered Georgia, a former Soviet republic, part of its sphere of influence.
Such a decision would hand Russia "huge satisfaction."
"Because of course, and we all know that, frustration is what can be best exploited by people that manipulate propaganda, fake news and all of that, and they will start blaming the European Union for, once again, forgetting Georgia, letting Georgia down. And all these themes will of course, come from and play for Russia," said Zurabishvili, the daughter of refugees who fled Georgia in 1921 for Paris after the country was annexed by Moscow's Soviet rulers.
"Russia will consider that Georgia remains in a gray zone. And we all know, again, that for Russia to consider any country as being completely in a gray zone means that they consider that it's theirs to play with."
The EU decision comes at a time of deep polarization in Georgian politics.
After the Rose Revolution in 2003, the country became a close ally of the United States, and its enmity with Russia deepened to the point that the two fought a war in 2008 over the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
But the current government led by the Georgian Dream party has taken a less confrontational approach toward Russia, even as it continued moving closer to the West at the same time.
In the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Georgian Dream has doubled down on its policy of accommodating Moscow. Just how Georgia should deal with Russia has become the sharpest point of contention in the country's politics.
Meanwhile, Georgian Dream has also taken a sharp turn toward social conservatism, embracing rhetoric of "family values" and identity, inspired by the example of Viktor Orban's Hungary.
With parliamentary elections coming up in Georgia next year, the country may be at a crossroads in its post-Soviet path.
Zurabishvili, who has been at odds with Georgian Dream -- which in October spearheaded a failed drive to impeach the president over her visits to European Union countries -- has accused the party of attempting "to kill Georgia's European future and democracy."
She said she plans to see out her term, which runs past the elections, and bring political consensus back to the country.
But, when asked if Georgia's EU future is on the line, would she enter the race in some way, she said: "If Georgia's European future is on the line, I would consider anything."