Iran faces a major dilemma after Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a key ally of Tehran, in air strikes in Lebanon on September 27.
If Iran launches a direct military strike on Israel, it risks provoking an all-out war with its archenemy. If Tehran opts for restraint, it could suffer a blow to its reputation among both allies and foes in the region.
Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, is a leading member of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and armed groups against Israel.
The Shi’ite organization -- considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing -- is also key to Iran’s strategy of deterrence against Israel and the United States.
“Iran is in a sticky situation where it desperately wants to be able to respond, but fears the consequence of doing so directly,” said Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
No Good Options
Iran is unlikely to launch a direct military strike on Israel, a move that could trigger a costly full-scale war that Tehran has been keen to avoid, experts said.
In the event of a direct conflict, Israel has overwhelming military superiority, although Iran’s arsenal of drones and missiles poses a significant threat, according to experts.
SEE ALSO: Iran Versus Israel: Who Has The Military Edge?“Iran’s options range from bad to worse against Israel given its conventional military deficiencies and the blows its regional terror network has endured,” said Behnam Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
Iran in April launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel. It came soon after suspected Israeli air strikes killed seven senior Iranian commanders in Syria.
But Taleblu said the Islamic republic will likely only launch another direct attack on Israel if the threat is “existential and to the homeland.”
With direct confrontation likely off the table, experts said Iran could turn to other members of its axis -- including pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias in Iraq, Yemen’s Huthi rebels, and militias in Syria -- to inflict damage on Israel and its key ally, the United States.
Iran’s axis of resistance has suffered major losses since Israel launched its devastating war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, casting doubt on its ability to retaliate against Israel.
Hamas has been severely weakened in the Palestinian enclave. Israel, meanwhile, has killed Nasrallah and most of Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon in recent months. Israel has also targeted the Huthis and pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq.
Leaning Toward Restraint
Iranian leaders have appeared to be unusually restrained since Nasrallah’s killing.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not threatened a direct Iranian response. That contrasts with his explicit promise of revenge after Israel’s suspected killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, in Tehran in July.
“Iran walked back the promise of hard revenge and bloodlust after the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran because it felt things were at least politically going its way in the region,” said Taleblu.
“But the increasingly lethal and bold Israeli actions against Hezbollah in the past two weeks have been nothing short of a strategic game changer against the Islamic republic and its [axis of resistance],” he added.
A demonstrator in Tehran holds a picture depicting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (left), Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (center), and Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, who was slain in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in January 2020.
Still, Iran appears to be adopting a strategy of restraint.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on September 30 that the country would not deploy forces to Lebanon or the Gaza Strip to fight Israel because Hamas and Hezbollah "have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression."
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Iran’s unwillingness to respond to Israel’s attacks on its allies could deal a blow to Tehran’s reputation and standing in the region.
“The perception is that Tehran is unable to enforce its own red lines against Israel,” he said. “Even if that is not true, it makes Iran look weak. And perceived weakness invites greater challenge.”
Going Nuclear
Even as Khamenei appears to be exercising restraint, hard-liners in Iran have called for military action against Israel. Some have even urged Tehran to weaponize the country’s nuclear program, arguing that only a nuclear deterrent will ensure Israel will not directly attack Iran.
Iranian media reports have said that the country has enough enriched uranium to produce 10 nuclear bombs. But experts said it could take Iran months, or even more than a year, to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a bomb.
SEE ALSO: Going Nuclear: Iran's New Rhetorical DeterrenceSabet said Iran’s calculus could change if it determines that the capabilities of Hezbollah, Tehran’s key deterrent against Israel, have been significantly degraded.
“As the current regional conflict evolves, the Islamic republic may soon face a ‘use it or lose it’ moment, when it must decide whether to build nuclear weapons [or not],” said Sabet.