Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been in Tehran's crosshairs ever since he ordered the killing of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in neighboring Iraq in 2020.
Tehran has repeatedly vowed to avenge Soleimani, and many officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have alluded to killing Trump and other senior members of his administration on U.S. soil.
“We will prepare the ground to exact vengeance on the Americans from within their homes, using their companions,” Esmail Qaani, who succeeded Soleimani as the commander of the Quds Force, the overseas arm of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said in January 2022.
WATCH: An animated video posted on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's website that envisions a drone strike on Donald Trump:
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Animation On Khamenei’s Website Showcasing Trump Drone Strike
U.S. media reported on July 16 that the Secret Service had enhanced Trump’s security detail after receiving intelligence in recent weeks that Iran was plotting to assassinate him. Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee in the November 5 presidential election.
The alleged plot appeared to be unrelated to the failed attempt on Trump’s life on July 13, the reports said.
“Plotting to kill a foreign leader, particularly an American presidential candidate, marks a significant leap in the crassness and risk-tolerance of the clerical regime,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
Iran has long been accused of carrying out assassinations, including of Iranian dissidents, on foreign soil, although it has always denied responsibility.
One of the most high-profile incidents was the 1991 killing of Shapur Bakhtiar, the last prime minister of Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Bakhtiar was shot dead in his home in France, in a killing that was widely blamed on Tehran.
“Iran has not been successful in such endeavors in recent years, and its activities tend to aim at disruption rather than assassinating former or potential heads of state,” said Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
He said while it was “unclear whether Iran's intelligence services are up to the task,” Trump’s close call on July 13 brings “into question any confidence that the Secret Service can keep him totally safe from harm.”
Taleblu said it would therefore be a mistake to dismiss Iran’s threats.
The Secret Service has been criticized since a 20-year-old gunman shot at Trump at a rally in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania, grazing the former president’s ear and killing a member of the crowd.
'Legal Route' To Avenge Soleimani
Despite public declarations by senior Iranian figures about the desire to avenge Soleimani by killing Trump, Iranian diplomats have dismissed reports linking Tehran to plots to assassinate the former president.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said on July 16 thatTehran was “determined to prosecute Trump” while the Iranian mission to the UN insisted that the Islamic republic had “chosen the legal route” to hold him accountable.
Separately, Acting Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri Kani said Iran “will resort to legal and judicial procedures…at the domestic and international level.”
Demonstrators in Tehran burn an effigy of Trump during an annual anti-US rally on November 11, 2017.
Taleblu said the comments by Iranian officials were in line with the “standard division of labor” in Tehran’s security policy.
“The Foreign Ministry tries to nullify threats through changes in style, while the IRGC and others are able to press ahead with the same sort of terror and destabilization in substance,” he added.
In December, a Tehran court ordered the U.S. government to pay nearly $50 billion in damages for assassinating Soleimani. The court convicted Trump and 41 other U.S. officials over the assassination.
Said Mahmoudi, professor of international law at Stockholm University, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Iranian court cases against Trump were only for show and lacked credibility.
“It is very, very unusual for a [foreign] country…to prosecute Trump. Only international courts are equipped to do this,” he said, adding that international law does not allow domestic courts to prosecute current and former heads of state based on local laws.
Potential Impact on Tehran-Washington Ties
Trump is currently leading President Joe Biden in most opinion polls ahead of the November election and some argue the assassination attempt could, at least temporarily, provide a boost to his chances.
SEE ALSO: How The Assassination Attempt On Trump Could Upend The U.S. Presidential RaceReports of an alleged Iranian plot against Trump’s life could torpedo attempts by reformist President-elect Masud Pezeshkian to tone down Iran’s anti-West rhetoric, Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, told Radio Farda.
Brew said Trump might be “even more hostile towards Iran” if elected but noted that the hostility is mutual.
“It should temper any expectations of forward progress, on the nuclear issue or any other policy area, in the event Trump wins November's election,” he added.