Yahya Sinwar, the alleged architect of the deadly October 7 attack on Israel and surprise appointment as the new leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated terror group Hamas, is known to have close ties to Iran.
His appointment on August 6 as the head of the Palestinian group's political bureau followed the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31, an act that Iran and Hamas blame on Israel.
Following the death of Haniyeh, who had strong relations with Iranian officials, the most prominent names to be considered as his successor were Khaled Meshaal, a former politburo chief of Hamas, and Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent figure within the bureau with close ties to Haniyeh.
The appointment of Sinwar, who has been the Hamas chief in Gaza since 2017, came as a big surprise because many did not take into account the Iran factor, analysts say.
"None of us experts on Palestinian affairs -- especially here in Israel -- thought about Sinwar as the person who would replace Haniyeh," said Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies who specializes in Israeli-Palestinian relations.
"One [major] reason why Sinwar is the [new] leader is Iran," he added.
Khaled Meshaal (left) was believed to be a shoo-in to replace Ismail Haniyeh (right) as Hamas leader after he was assassinated in Iran.
Sinwar was appointed after two days of deliberations in Qatar by the Shura Council -- a consultative body that elects the group's politburo and has members in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the Palestinian diaspora.
Tzoreff said Meshaal's criticism during the 2011 Arab Spring of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad -- a close ally of Tehran -- made him a deeply unpopular figure among Iran's top brass.
Tzoreff argued that Mashaal's return to power could have jeopardized the Palestinian group's relations with the Islamic republic and "[the Iranians] may have stopped giving Hamas everything it needs [to fight Israeli forces]."
But Sinwar is reportedly stuck in Gaza, where he has been in hiding since the start of the war with Israel in October 2023. The constraints on his movement and restricted ability to communicate with the world mean Sinwar is very limited in what he can do.
"I don’t expect him or Hamas to become closer to Iran. At this point, the relationship will likely stay the same," said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North Africa Program director at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group.
Molded By Israeli Prisons
Also known by his supporters as Abu Ibrahim, the 61-year-old Sinwar was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza. His parents, like Haniyeh's, fled the coastal town of Ashkelon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War that resulted in the establishment of the state of Israel -- or what Palestinians call the "nakba" (catastrophe).
Sinwar joined Hamas shortly after it was formed in 1987 and set up its feared internal security organization, Al-Majd, whose main purpose was to find Israeli spies within the group. He gained a reputation for violence and was nicknamed the "Butcher of Khan Younis."
Sinwar was captured by Israeli forces and sentenced to multiple life terms for a variety of offenses -- including the killing of two Israeli soldiers -- and spent more than two decades in prison.
"He is a guy who was hardened in Israeli prisons, like many longtime Palestinian ex-prisoners," Hiltermann said.
He said Sinwar learned Hebrew while in prison and, crucially, this helped him to learn how Israeli leaders think.
"Sinwar's really tough. He is ruthless. He is very much a leader in the mold of any Israeli leader," Hiltermann said.
While in prison, Sinwar organized strikes to improve working conditions and emerged as a leader among incarcerated Palestinians.
His experience in prison "prepared him very well for the leadership of Hamas" and in planning the October 7 attack, Hiltermann said.
Sinwar (left) traveled to Iran with Haniyeh to meet Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in 2012.
Nearly 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed when Hamas militants raided communities in south Israel in October and took hostages back to Gaza. The attack prompted Israel to launch a major offensive in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, which Palestinian sources say has killed more than 40,000 people.
Sinwar was released from prison in 2011 as part of an exchange that saw more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners freed in return for one Israeli soldier held by Hamas. Soon after his release, Sinwar accompanied Haniyeh on a trip to Tehran where he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The same day Sinwar was announced as Haniyeh's successor on August 6, Khamenei's account on X posted a short video of that visit showing Sinwar meeting with the Iranian leader in February 2012.
Hamas's Message
Traditionally, Hamas's political bureau chief is based abroad so he can travel and maintain contact with regional allies, such as Iran and the Lebanese Islamic militant group Hizballah.
But Sinwar, who U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken once joked is "buried 10 stories underground" in Gaza, is unable to leave the enclave because of the war.
Tzoreff said that, by appointing a Gaza-based leader, Hamas was "sending a very strong message" to both Israel and Arab states that "the resistance of Hamas has not collapsed."
"The main message is that nobody can push them out of the area," he added.
SEE ALSO: Iran's 'Axis Of Resistance': Different Groups, Same GoalsSinwar himself may not be keen on leaving Gaza, because his legitimacy is based on his being in the enclave.
"If Sinwar were to leave Gaza, Palestinians would say he is abandoning them, like a captain leaving the ship," Hiltermann said.
Sinwar has been in Israel's sights since the beginning of the war, with army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari describing him as a "dead man" following the October attack.
Killing Sinwar remains a priority for the Israeli army.
Chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi vowed on August 7 that his troops would target Sinwar and force Hamas to "replace the head of the political bureau again."