It's not clear if Benjamin Netanyahu will ever face prosecution after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against him for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
But even if he never appears before The Hague, the charges and the stigma they carry promise to dog the embattled Israeli prime minister.
Netanyahu has defended himself against the charges related to Israel's ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, and Israel does not recognize the Netherlands-based court's jurisdiction.
But there is no question that carrying out his duties as prime minister just became more difficult for Netanyahu.
Bound By Rome
Anthony Dworkin, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told RFE/RL that while Israel is not a party to the Rome Statute that established the ICC, "there are 124 countries around the world that are."
Those states now "all have a legal obligation to arrest Netanyahu" if he enters their territory, Dworkin said, and that is going to impose "far-reaching limitations on the countries that he'll be able to go to."
As precedent, Dworkin pointed to the complications Russian President Vladimir Putin has encountered since the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him in March 2023 related to alleged war crimes against Ukraine.
"He's had to change his travel plans pretty significantly," Dworkin said, singling out what was called a mutual decision for him not to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa in July 2023.
This September, ICC member Mongolia faced immense pressure to arrest Putin upon his arrival for a visit. It failed to heed the calls, in a move that was seen as exposing the limits of the court responsible for prosecuting individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and crimes of aggression.
The ICC announcement on November 21 came six months after the court's chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, first announced he was seeking warrants not only against Netanyahu, but against former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Muhammad Deif, a military commander of the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group Hamas whom Israel claimed in July to have killed.
Left to right: Netanyahu, Gallant, and Hamas's military commander Muhammad Deif.
Deif is accused of crimes connected to Hamas's assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians. Netanyahu and Gallant are charged in relation to Israel's retaliatory invasion of Gaza, where more than 43,000 people have been killed, according to Palestinian officials.
Rejecting Israel's challenges to the charges on November 21, the ICC announced that it was issuing warrants against all three, working from the assumption that Deif may still be alive.
Depending On Cooperation
The ICC has no powers to enforce its warrant accusing Netanyahu of criminal responsibility for war crimes, including starvation as a method of warfare, and crimes against humanity including "murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.”
Relying on cooperation, Khan has urged all the court's member states to act on the warrants and for nonmembers to work toward "upholding international law."
Among the latter would be the United States, a key Israeli ally that does not recognize the ICC's jurisdiction over this matter and which "fundamentally" rejected the court's decision to issue the warrant.
All European Union states are ICC members, however.
Dworkin noted that "European countries have been quite divided" in responding to Israel's actions in the Palestinian enclave, most of which is in ruins after a year of relentless Israeli air and ground operations.
SEE ALSO: Israel's Devastating War In Gaza In Numbers"Some countries have been increasingly critical of Israel's actions," Dworkin said, while "other countries have tried to walk more of a middle path, criticizing some aspects but broadly supporting Israel."
Now, even a vocal Israel supporter like Germany will have to weigh its support with its commitments to the rule of law.
"We will see a difference in the way that countries look at him, talk about him, and so on," Dworkin said.
Israel has already canceled a visit next week by Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp following his assurances that the Netherlands would uphold the ICC warrants.
France has said it supports ICC prosecutor Khan's actions, and Italy has said it would have to arrest Netanyahu if he arrived in the country.
The Outliers
At the same time, the ruling could have some unintended ramifications.
Viktor Orban -- the prime minister of EU-member Hungary who is often at odds with Brussels on hot-button topics such as relations with Putin -- has already positioned itself as an outlier.
On November 22, Orban accused the ICC of “interfering in an ongoing conflict for political purposes” and said that its warrant against Netanyahu undermined international law.
Orban said he would defy the warrant by inviting Netanyahu to Hungary.
SEE ALSO: Orban Invites Netanyahu To Hungary In Defiance Of ICC Arrest MandateThe ICC could also face more backlash in the United States from the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has cast himself as a greater ally to Israel than outgoing President Joe Biden.
Trump's nominee to serve as his national security adviser, Republican congressman Mike Waltz, on November 21 warned that "you can expect a strong response to the anti-Semitic bias of the ICC" when Trump takes office on January 20.
The incoming Trump administration might respond strongly to the ICC’s arrest warrant against Netanyahu.
Netanyahu's office, too, has denounced the ICC's decision to issue the warrants as "anti-Semitic," and some observers say Netanyahu could ride such sentiment to get a political boost at home. Support for Netanyahu and his right-wing government fell sharply following the October 7 attack, but has recently improved, according to opinion polls.
"There's universal condemnation across the political spectrum in Israel, so it doesn't hurt him domestically at all," Khaled Elgindy, an analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told RFE/RL. "Maybe [it] helps him a little bit, because people will rally around the flag."