Hamas's October 7 Attack On Israel Compromised Iran, Proxy Network

Iran has spent decades methodically assembling its "axis of resistance," a loose network of armed proxies and allies against Israel.

The network is key to Iran's attempts to sustain military pressure on Israel and to deter its archenemy from directly attacking the Islamic republic.

But on October 7, a key member of the axis launched a deadly cross-border assault on Israel, compromising the axis and leaving Iran exposed to a possible direct war with Israel.

Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip, killed nearly 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians, and took 251 hostages in its multipronged attack.

One year on from the unprecedented attack, Israel has weakened key members of the axis and left Iran ever-closer to the all-out war with Israel it sought to avoid.

Broken Axis?

Hamas has been pounded by Israel's retaliatory aerial bombardment and ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.

Israel's war in Gaza has killed over 41,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. Israel has said most of those killed were combatants, and estimates it has slain around 17,000 Hamas fighters, a figure rejected by the Palestinian group.

In July, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in a suspected Israeli attack.

Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group and political party, has fired thousands of rockets on Israel in the past year in solidarity with Palestinians.

The Shi'ite organization, the most powerful member of the axis of resistance, is considered a terrorist group by the United States, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing.

Hezbollah has suffered major blowback in recent months. Israeli attacks have decimated its leadership, degraded its fighting capabilities, and compromised its communications.

On October 1, Israeli troops invaded southern Lebanon, opening a second front in its war against the axis of resistance.

Some 2,000 kilometers to the south, Yemen's Huthi rebels have also been targeted. The Huthis began launching advanced missiles and drones at Israel soon after the October 7, 2023, attack and targeted international maritime traffic off the coast of Yemen. The actions landed the Huthis back on the U.S. terror list in January. In late September, waves of Israeli air strikes hit Huthi targets in Yemen.

Israel's Iron Dome antimissile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip on October 8, 2023.

Pro-Iranian militias and members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have also been hit hard by Israeli strikes in Iraq and Syria.

Missile Deterrence Targeted

Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said that by taking on Iranian proxies Israel has undermined a major component of Tehran's national-security doctrine.

"Iran has seen that one of the parties, the main proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah, is reduced to almost nothing," Alfoneh said, adding that it has greatly limited "what Hezbollah can do for Iran in the short term."

On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever missile attack against Israel in what was seen as retaliation for Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah days earlier.

Alfoneh suggested Iran's attack may have been fueled by concerns that Israel had targeted Hezbollah's missile arsenals that "potentially can deter Israel from targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure."

"If those missiles are no longer there, things look very bleak for Iran," Alfoneh said, adding Iran may have struck Israel in the hope that it could "divert Israeli attention away from Lebanon."

Iranians burn a painted Israeli flag during a gathering in Tehran to support Iran's October 1 attack on Israel.

'Down But Not Out'

Other experts, however, were skeptical of the overall effect of Israel's bombardments against the axis of resistance.

"Hezbollah has definitely taken a hit, but the euphoria that swept Israel and parts of Washington appears premature and exaggerated," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. "The axis may have been down but [is] far from out."

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, said Hamas, Iran-backed militias in Syria, and to some extent Hezbollah has been weakened in terms of weaponry and human resources.

But he said that did not apply to the axis of resistance overall. In the case of Hezbollah, Azizi said the group has significant manpower totaling around 100,000 fighters. And Hezbollah, he said, has only sparingly used its most powerful ballistic missiles against Israel.

The Huthis, meanwhile, have already unleashed highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.

The biggest impact, he said, had been on the axis of resistance's command and coordination structure, largely due to Israel's assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, "who was in charge of coordinating all these groups," including training and recruitment efforts.