A suspected Israeli attack targeting electronic devices used by members of the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hizballah appears to mark a new phase in the escalating hostilities between the longtime foes.
Israel and Hizballah have been engaged in deadly tit-for-tat cross-border attacks since the devastating war in the Gaza Strip erupted in October 2023.
Experts say the coordinated September 17 attack in Lebanon that targeted pagers and killed at least 12 people and wounded thousands of others, many of them believed to be Hizballah fighters, was a significant escalation that could make a full-scale war between Israel and Hizballah inevitable.
Hizballah’s leadership and rank-and-file turned to hand-held pagers to skirt Israeli surveillance on mobile-phone networks in Lebanon.
A new deadly wave of explosions hit Hizballah strongholds in southern Lebanon on September 18. Walkie-talkies used by Hizballah fighters were targeted.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said there had been a "pattern of incremental escalation" between Israel and Hizballah in recent months.
Hizballah has been striking deeper into northern Israel and displacing tens of thousands of Israeli citizens. Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its assassination campaign against Hizballah inside Lebanon.
"At some point, this will get out of hand and explode into an all-out war," Azizi said.
The explosions in Lebanon came after Israel on September 16 said it was expanding the focus of its almost yearlong campaign against EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza to confront Hizballah on its northern border with Lebanon. Israel also added the safe return of its citizens to the north as a new goal in the war.
Smoke rises above Lebanon following an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hizballah and Israeli forces, as seen from Israel's border with Lebanon.
Ali Sardarzadeh, a Middle East analyst based in Germany, said the Lebanon attack was intended to send a "clear message to Hizballah to stop the power display they are engaging in."
Israel is "pressuring Hizballah both through warfare and diplomacy," Sardarzadeh told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Ali Mohtadi, a Britain-based regional expert, said the "explosion of pagers could mark a new phase of a [Israel-Hizballah] war that has been ongoing for nearly a year."
Mohdati told Radio Farda that a full-scale war was against the interests of both Israel and Hizballah but added that hostilities had "reached a stage where it could spiral out of control at any moment."
Your browser doesn’t support HTML5
How Have Hizballah's Devices Put It At Risk?
Hizballah has blamed Israel for the explosions and vowed to retaliate. The Israeli military has not commented.
Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at the London-based School of Oriental and African Studies, said the explosions were an embarrassment and major security breach for Hizballah. But she said a full-blown conflict was not inevitable.
"With Hizballah rendered vulnerable, Israel is continuing its military campaign in southern Lebanon," Khatib said. "But it will not necessarily escalate its military engagement into full-scale war as the pagers attack itself is a deterrent for Hizballah."
People walk past a banner featuring a picture of the late Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an attack in Tehran.
A direct conflict between Israel and Hizballah could trigger a wider regional war that would draw in Iran, Hizballah's key backer and Israel's archenemy.
Iran's proxies, including Hizballah, have launched attacks against Israel in support of Palestinians since the Gaza war erupted.
Iran and Israel have come to the brink of war on several occasions, including after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran in July. Tehran blamed Israel and pledged to retaliate, although there has been no direct military response by Iran.
Among those wounded in the September 17 attack in Lebanon was Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani. Iranian media reported that he suffered injuries "to the hand and the face."
Experts said that it was unlikely that the attack in Lebanon would trigger direct Iranian retaliation against Israel.
"I think Iran will consider this primarily a Hizballah issue despite the injuries suffered by the Iranian ambassador," said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
"We will probably see discussions and consultations between Iran and Hizballah concerning a possible retaliation, but my sense is that Iran prefers the response to come from Hizballah."