Israel and its Iran-backed Lebanese foe Hizballah insist they do not seek a full-scale conflict, but they continue to take steps toward war.
It took the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hizballah nearly a month to deliver on its promised attack against Israel for the killing of its most senior commander, Fuad Shukr.
But Israel saw the attack coming, taking what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described as preemptive strikes against Hizballah's rocket launchers on August 25, apparently reducing the scale of the Iran-backed group's offensive.
Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said that while neither side wants an all-out war, each party is "very determined to impose its own equation on the other."
They continue to take risks by attacking each other, but mistakes and miscalculations could spark the very conflict they want to avoid, Zimmt warned.
SEE ALSO: Why Is Iran Delaying Its Vowed Attack On Israel?"This ongoing, so-called limited conflict between Israel and Hizballah is very difficult to manage," he added.
The IDF says around 100 fighter jets took part in its preemptive operation, while Hizballah claims it launched more than 300 rockets and drones against Israel. If the numbers are true, this marks the biggest exchange of fire between Israel and Hizballah since the 2006 war, which ended in a stalemate.
Without Israel's preemptive strikes, the scale of Hizballah's attack would have been devastating, Zimmt said. That would have prompted a "severe" Israeli response, he added.
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Israel Intercepts Hizballah Missiles, Bombs Southern Lebanon
Despite the heavy exchange of fire, the attacks do not -- at least on the surface -- seem to have affected negotiations to establish a cease-fire in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages from Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist group by the European Union and the United States.
Zimmt said while he is "not optimistic" about the prospects of a cease-fire, such a deal could help de-escalate tensions -- although, even that, he added, is only speculation.
Hizballah Going Solo?
The Middle East has been on edge for weeks, expecting not just an attack on Israel from Hizballah but also from Iran.
Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel after a bombing in uptown Tehran killed Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not commented on the attack.
Haniyeh was killed hours after Shukr, widely seen as the second-most powerful person in Hizballah, was killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut.
SEE ALSO: Full-Blown War Between Israel And Iran-Backed Hizballah 'Not In The Interests' Of TehranMany assessed that an Iranian attack on Israel would come in concert with strikes from Hizballah.
But the Lebanese group, which is more an Iranian partner than a proxy, appears to have grown tired of waiting and struck out on its own.
"It is very important to note that Hizballah didn't wait for the Iranians," Zimmt said, arguing that one reason why Hizballah waited so long to launch its retaliatory strike was that it had hoped to attack Israel alongside Iran.
However, the Lebanese group likely concluded that a direct Iranian strike was not coming, at least for now.
"This might have some impact -- perhaps not immediately -- on Hizballah's relationship with Iran," Zimmt said.