As Middle East Crisis Escalates, Hopes For Diplomatic Solution Dim

Israel's two-front war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, as well as the threat of escalation with Iran, have put the Middle East crisis on boil.

But despite the risk of all-out war involving regional powers Israel and Iran, experts say there is little appetite for a diplomatic solution.

This is largely because the main obstacles to peace are immovable without incentive and persuasion, and the only actors capable of changing the situation are either reluctant to act or are in a position to benefit from escalation, analysts say.

"There are diplomatic solutions to this crisis, but they have to center on the de-occupation of Palestine, since that is the root cause of the conflict," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

The main obstacle to such an outcome, Parsi said, "is Washington's refusal to sincerely push Israel to end its occupation." If the United States "fundamentally changes its approach, these diplomatic solutions will become politically viable."

The United States is a key ally of Israel, a major recipient of U.S. arms and aid. But Israel has charted its own course, despite some U.S. pressure, and it is unclear if other players would scale down their military activities in response to Israeli de-escalation.

Expanding War

Israel is currently involved in a two-front war against Iran-backed armed groups -- the U.S.-designated terrorist organizations Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel launched its war in Gaza a year ago in retaliation for Hamas's deadly assault on its territory. More recently, the war expanded into Israel's aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon intended to cripple Hezbollah and its ability to strike Israel with rockets and missiles.

Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. The EU has not blacklisted its political wing, which has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Iran, which helped establish Hezbollah four decades ago to serve as its lead proxy in its shadow war against archenemy Israel, has also engaged in tit-for-tat attacks with Israel in recent months, leading to fears of a broader war involving the two regional heavyweights.

Israel has pounded southern Lebanon with air strikes and launched a ground invasion in recent weeks.

Of the two fronts, analysts told RFE/RL, Israel is more inclined to engage in diplomatic efforts with Hamas because it is interested in securing the release of scores of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas in the October 7, 2023, assault.

Recent polls have shown that Israeli public opinion considers the release of the hostages as the top objective of the war in Gaza.

Israel's killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the October 7 attack and considered by Washington to be a "massive obstacle to peace," is also seen as a potential breakthrough.

The State Department characterized Sinwar's October 17 death as an opportunity to end the conflict in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages. President Joe Biden said it was now "time to move on" and secure a cease-fire.

Hezbollah Seeks Relief

In Lebanon, only Hezbollah and its key backer Iran want a cease-fire because the militant group has "taken such very heavy blows," according to Middle East expert Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy.

"I don't think Israel necessarily wants a lot of diplomacy," he said.

Israel has pounded southern Lebanon with aerial strikes and launched a ground invasion in recent weeks.

Iran, meanwhile, has recently made the rounds among Arab Gulf States in an effort to persuade them to help deter Israel from attacking key targets in Iran. Fears of Israeli attacks against Iranian oil and even nuclear facilities have risen since Iran fired around 180 ballistic missiles on Israel on October 1.

But while some Gulf states have normalized relations with both Iran and Israel, and helped blunt Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel in April, experts are skeptical of their influence in this diplomatic arena.

"The Arab states have very little sway over Israel, but they have some sway with Washington," Parsi said in written comments.

Staying On The Sidelines

The Gulf states, as well as Washington, also have their own incentives to stand aside because they want to see Hezbollah weakened, experts said.

The government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as Hamas and some Arab Gulf states, have reasons not to seek a cease-fire, according to experts.

Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank, said that Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states "are tacitly willing to tolerate or even support" the war against Hezbollah because it provides them an advantage in "their own regional contest for power with Iran."

In Gaza, Cambanis said, "there is a real perverse lack of incentive" for either Hamas or the Israeli government to work out a cease-fire because extending the conflict helps each of them hold onto power.

Cambanis said that a diplomatic process that involved serious U.S. leverage "could very quickly and very easily end the conflict as it stands now."

But he said that diplomacy cannot currently resolve the underlying causes of the war.

"I don't think it's reasonable to expect diplomacy to come up with a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Nor do I expect diplomacy to urgently come to a long-term resolution of the boundary disputes between Lebanon and Israel," Cambanis said.