CHISINAU -- In an apparent rebuff of pro-European President Maia Sandu and her Western allies, Moldovan voters appear to have voted "no" in a referendum on potential European Union membership following a campaign marred by allegations of Russian meddling in opposition to the measure.
Sandu said in a statement early on October 21 that the balloting came under an "unprecedented" assault from "criminal groups" that tried to buy hundreds of thousands of votes in an attempt to "undermine a democratic process."
In a separate vote also held on October 20, Sandu -- in her reelection bid -- came out on top of 11 candidates vying for the presidency, but her slim lead over pro-Russia Socialist Alexandr Stoianoglo means the two will face each other in a runoff vote early next month.
Many observers billed Moldova's dual elections as crucial to helping decide the nation's future direction -- whether it will feature closer ties to Europe and the West or turn more toward Russia.
With Sandu’s first-round win but the negative result on the EU referendum, Moldova's place in the East-West divide appears still to be determined, and the concerns of Chisinau's Western backers, who have expressed concerns about Russian influence in the small Balkan nation, will not be erased.
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'To Live Like In Europe:' Moldovans Vote In Constitutional Referendum, Presidential Election
With 90 percent of the ballots counted, the “no” vote had 53.8 percent of the vote. Turnout was nearly 50 percent, easily surpassing the 33 percent required to make the referendum valid.
"We are waiting for the final results, and we will respond with firm decisions," Sandu said in her statement.
Electoral commission officials have said full preliminary results will be released around 10 a.m. local time on October 21.
A "no" vote in the referendum would not preclude future membership, but it would deal a serious blow to Sandu and her pro-EU allies and almost certainly forestall accession efforts for years to come.
Sandu, meanwhile, had 37 percent, with 90 percent of the votes counted, to Stoianoglo’s 28 percent, much higher than he had polled in pre-vote surveys. Renato Usatii, the populist former mayor of Moldova's second-largest city of Balti, was third with around 14 percent, according to the Central Election Commission.
With no candidate receiving more than 50 percent of the vote, Sandu and Stoianoglo will go head-to-head in a runoff election on November 3.
Turnout in the presidential vote was over 51.4 percent, or more than 1.56 million votes, as long lines were reported at some polling stations in Moldova and at sites outside the country, including France, Romania, Russia, and Greece.
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Residents Of Breakaway Transdniester Region Vote In Moldova's Elections
Observers cautioned that the early results are likely from diaspora sites in Russia and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, meaning that Sandu’s lead could rise as votes from Moldova itself are counted.
A delegation of electoral observers from more than a dozen countries helped to monitor the two polls in Moldova.
Sandu faced 10 challengers led by Stoianoglo and populist Usatii in the poor former Soviet republic's third direct presidential election, as it navigates polarization at home and war to its east in Ukraine.
The votes could provide valuable lessons for Sandu's allies and the opposition ahead of parliamentary elections next summer that will be a referendum on four years of rule by the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) that she founded eight years ago.
Moldova’s presidency holds limited direct power, but Sandu has parlayed her pro-Western message and leverage with the liberal PAS into limited reforms and formal EU candidacy for her fractured former Soviet republic.
One of her most ambitious moves has been eliminating landlocked Moldova's reliance on Russian natural gas since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but that has contributed to inflation and other economic hardships for many of Moldova's 2.4 million residents.
SEE ALSO: How Is The Kremlin Meddling In 2024 Elections? Here Are 5 Tactics.Aside from stark warnings by local officials, including Moldova's foreign minister, U.S. and other Western officials have pointed fingers at Russia, citing "very clear action by the Russians to undermine this upcoming election and referendum."
Russia, which maintains hundreds of troops at a former Soviet base in Moldova's heavily Russian-speaking breakaway region of Transdniester, denies intruding on the Moldovan vote.
Since his party was banned by the government and then the Moldovan Constitutional Court last year for allegedly fomenting a coup, convicted oligarch Ilan Shor has been accused of a multimillion-dollar scheme to pay anti-EU voters and influencers and has been linked to other schemes from his Russian exile to promote Russia among Moldovans and foment dissatisfaction with their government.
Days before the voting, authorities said they arrested four people and warned that dozens more had been trained in Russia and the Balkans to “destabilize” the country after the vote.
Denis Cenusa, an analyst with the Expert-Grup at the University of Giessen, suggested at a Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) event last week that the EU constitutional referendum was an effort to make up for years spent “oscillating between two vectors” -- one toward EU membership and the other envisaging a more balanced international engagement that would almost certainly lead to closer relations with Moscow.
The amendments at issue in the constitutional referendum would include confirmation in the preamble of Moldovans' "European identity," the "irreversibility of the European course" of the country, and integration as a national "strategic objective."
It would also add a section allowing for accession on the basis of a majority vote in Moldova's 101-member parliament.