CIA head William Burns says he expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to bide his time and wait before seeking retribution against Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, following his aborted mutiny against Russia's military leadership last month.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum on July 20, Burns also said Prigozhin’s mutiny was the biggest challenge to Putin in his 23 years as Russia’s preeminent official, and he asserted that Russia’s elites, some already doubting the conduct of the Ukraine war, had increasing doubts about Putin’s leadership.
"What we are seeing is a very complicated dance," Burns said in what was billed by the forum as a fireside chat.
"Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback,” he said.
“So I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution for this. So in that sense, the President (Joe) Biden is right. if I were Prigozhin, I wouldn't fire my food taster," Burns added, referring to a quip by Biden earlier this week that, if he were Prigozhin, "I'd be careful what I ate."
The stunning but short-lived mutiny by Prigozhin on June 24 saw Wagner fighters seize the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and march to within 200 kilometers of Moscow, shooting down Russian military aircraft and killing 13 air-force personnel along the way.
Putin immediately denounced the insurrection as a “stab in the back” and vowed to punish all "traitors" involved.
But Prigozhin does not appear to have been arrested or even detained, and the Kremlin said he met with Putin days after the mutiny.
Since then, the Wagner chief’s whereabouts have been shrouded in mystery, though he is believed to be moving between Russia and Belarus, where Wagner troops have been setting up camps to train Belarusian armed forces as part of a negotiated deal that helped end the mutiny.
The insurrection came on the heels of months of intense public infighting with Russia’s military leadership over the war strategy in Ukraine and ammunition supplies.
Burns claimed that U.S. intelligence had prior warning of the mutiny, and he said many of Russia’s elites were wondering about Putin’s response: `"whether the emperor had no clothes or at least why is it taking him so long to get dressed."
"I think what it resurrected was some deeper questions which again, you know, you've seen circulate within the Russian elite since the war in Ukraine began," said Burns, a longtime diplomat who also served as U.S. ambassador to Russia.
"I think Putin is already a little bit uneasy as he looks over his shoulder" he added.
On the battlefield, the CIA chief said it was not a surprise that gains from Ukraine's counteroffensive have been incremental.
Russian troops, he said, had months to prepare defenses before Kyiv's troops launched their campaign last month.
"I don't think it should come as a surprise to anyone that the counteroffensive is a hard slog. Offense is a lot harder than defense," Burns said.
"I am however, an optimist...Behind those considerable fixed defenses that the Russians have built in southern Ukraine...there still lie some pretty significant structural weaknesses, poor morale, uneven generalship to put it mildly on the Russian side...and the disarray... about the political and very senior military leadership," he added.