Shaky Ground: Inside The Russian Military Bases In Syria

A memorial event for Russian pilot Roman Filipov  at the Hmeimim air base near Latakia, Syria, in February 2023.

Satellite images made on December 13 show Russia appears to be withdrawing equipment from the Hmeimim base after the recent toppling of its ally, President Bashar al-Assad.  

 

A satellite view of Russia’s naval facility in Tartus, on Syria’s Mediterranean coast on December 13, 2024.

The Kremlin has reportedly been in talks with militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now the de facto government in Syria, over the future of Russia’s Syrian bases.
 

A Russian cafeteria worker prepares tables at the Hmeimim base in October 2015.

Robert E. Hamilton, the head of Eurasia research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told RFE/RL Syria's new rulers may be reluctant to tolerate bases from which the Kremlin "launched years of attacks on HTS, other opposition groups, and on Syrian civilians," throughout the country’s civil war.

A Russian military policeman patrols the Hmeimim air base in March 2016.

Hamilton says it remains to be seen whether talks between Russia and HTS, "are about ensuring an orderly withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, or about ensuring Russia can maintain its bases there."

Russian troops march past an Orthodox priest at the Hmeimim base in April 2018. The soldiers are wearing sand-colored Russian uniforms issued to some servicemen based in Syria.

Ben Dubow, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told RFE/RL the current talks between Russia and HTS could result in "a greatly reduced Russian presence," in the Syrian bases compared to the active combat phase during Assad’s rule.  

 

Russian servicewomen wait at a store inside the Hmeimim base in February 2016.

Dubow said Moscow might be able to negotiate a reduced foothold in Syria, "to continue possessing vital transit stations for projecting power across the Middle East and Africa."
 

Russian soldiers walk past an Orthodox cross at the Hmeimim base in April 2018.

The Hmeimim air base has been a hub for Russian military aircraft since 2015, when the Kremlin moved to shore up Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war. 
 

A Russian sailor votes in the March 2024 presidential election near a portrait of Peter the Great, in the Tartus naval facility.

In 2017, Russia signed a 49-year lease on the Hmeimim base, and the Tartus naval facility (pictured) which was first established by the Soviets in 1971. Those agreements have been rendered meaningless by the collapse of the Assad government in Syria.


 

A bomb-laden Su-25 jet at the Hmeimim air base in December 2015.

Russia's lease agreement obliged Assad’s military to safeguard the perimeter of the Hmeimim base, while giving Moscow legal jurisdiction over the facilities inside. Negotiating perimeter protection from Syria’s new rulers will be vital for the Russian bases in an era of wire-controlled drones immune to jamming.
 

A Russian corvette anchors in Tartus in September 2019.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told Russian media on December 13: “the bases are still there, where they always were, on Syrian territory. No other decisions have been made for the moment." 
 

A Russian Orthodox priest stands inside a chapel at the Tartus naval facility in September 2019.

A British intelligence report issued on December 13 linked the collapse of the Assad regime and subsequent shaky status of Russia's Syrian bases to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. 

Russian personnel line up on the tarmac of the Hmeimim air base in March 2016.

The British intelligence report cited "Russia's prioritization of the Ukraine conflict" as having "degraded Russia's ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power."