Trump's Win Could Lead To Push For Peace In Ukraine, But On Whose Terms?

The common view is that an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine is nowhere in sight. But Donald Trump’s election could generate a push to reach a peace deal -- with Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and others wrangling over the potential terms.

Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential vote set the clock ticking, in a way, because he repeatedly said during the campaign that he would be able to end the war very quickly if elected, without even waiting for his inauguration on January 20.

Russian President Vladimir Putin seized on this in his first public remarks about the U.S. election result, saying on November 7 that what he called Trump’s statements about a desire to “revive relations” with Russia and help end the war in Ukraine “deserve attention, to say the least.”

That comment came amid high praise from Putin for Trump: He said that the now president-elect had shown “courage” and “acted like a man” when a would-be assassin shot at him in July, and that his impression was that during his 2017-2021 term, Trump was straitjacketed and prevented from pursuing his goals.

Putin’s words were delivered in a way that was clearly meant to seem casual and off-the-cuff. But they suggest that the Kremlin will try to leverage the change of power in the United States, and Trump’s hopes of brokering peace, in a bid to further its own goals in Ukraine.

Big Challenges

However, there’s no sign that Moscow has abandoned its stated goals, which include Russian control over five Ukrainian regions in their entirety and a permanent ban on Ukraine joining NATO.

The morning after Putin made his remarks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov seemed eager to drive that message home. He said Putin has repeatedly mentioned that Russia is open for dialogue but that the president “has never said that the goals [of the invasion] have changed.”

With its forces advancing in eastern Ukraine at a faster pace than they have since a few months after the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Moscow does not seem to be in the mood for compromise.

Putin’s Security Council chief, Sergei Shoigu, also suggested that Moscow is open to talks, but only on its own terms.

"Now, when the situation in the theater of military operations is not in favor of the Kyiv regime, the West is faced with a choice -- to continue financing it and destroying the Ukrainian population or to recognize the current realities and start negotiating," Shoigu said on November 7.

Ukrainian rescuers clear debris at the site of a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, eastern Ukraine, in October.

That’s one of the big challenges facing any bid by Trump to end the war: A cease-fire or peace on terms that satisfy Moscow would likely be seen as a defeat for Kyiv and could leave Russia in a position to threaten Ukraine and even the West. That would be hard for the White House to cast as a geopolitical victory.

With Trump’s inauguration 10 weeks away, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is trying to prevent that from happening. He is urging the West to deliver more weapons, to help Ukraine improve its position on the battlefield and pave the way for a “just peace,” warning that giving Russia what it wants would be a grave mistake.

"There has been much talk about the need to yield to Putin, to back down, to make some concessions. It's unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all Europe," Zelenskiy said in a speech at a European Political Community meeting in Budapest on November 7.

Rifts In The West

Divisions in the West threaten to play into Russia’s hands. Speaking in Budapest on November 8, European Council President Charles Michel echoed Zelenskiy, saying, “We have to strengthen Ukraine, to support Ukraine, because if we do not support Ukraine, this is the wrong signal that we send to Putin, but also to some other authoritarian regimes across the world.”

But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an ally of Trump who is also close to Putin, voiced something close to the opposite position.

An aerial view of Vuhledar, Ukraine, the site of heavy Russian bombardment and battles. (file photo)

“The situation on the front is obvious, there’s been a [Ukrainian] military defeat,” Orban said. “The Americans are going to pull out of this war.”

But whether that will happen is not yet clear, despite Trump’s repeated statements that the war must end, and his criticism of the tens of billions of dollars in military and other support the United States has provided Ukraine under President Joe Biden.

Beyond indications that he would use the volume of aid to Ukraine as leverage in getting Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table, Trump has said little about how he would go about trying to stop the fighting, so the approach he chooses remains a crucial variable as his new term approaches.

Trump’s advisers have presented ideas, some of them publicly. But in a November 6 report that cited unnamed allies of Trump, The Wall Street Journal reported that he “hasn’t approved a specific peace plan” or settled on a way to get Putin and Zelenskiy “to sit at the same table and negotiate.”