NEAR CHASIV YAR, Ukraine -- From 3 kilometers away, the eastern Ukrainian town of Chasiv Yar looks tiny, with little in view but the two towers of its clay refractory plant on the horizon. But the echo of exploding bombs and artillery shells slamming to the ground carries over the flat fields stretching beneath the hilltop settlement.
The battle for this strategic town began in early April, when Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian assault. As fighting raged on, Ukrainian authorities said that Moscow wanted to capture the city by May 9 as a trophy for World War II Victory Day ceremonies in which Russian President Vladimir Putin presides over a military parade on Red Square.
If that was the plan, it fell flat. But the fate of the embattled Ukrainian stronghold just five kilometers west of the bigger city of Bakhmut, which Russian forces took last year after a months of bloody fighting, remains uncertain. Seizing it would give Russia a gateway to the part of the Donbas -- the Donetsk and Luhansk regions -- that remains under Ukrainian control.
Soldiers from the Lyut Brigade drive their pickup truck in the direction of Chasiv Yar.
As they await the delivery of U.S. weapons following the approval of a long-delayed aid package, outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces hope to halt the unfolding offensive and stabilize the front line. But Russia has maintained the initiative on the battlefield for months and recently pushed forward around Ocheretyne and Kurakhove, further south, creating risks for the entire sector.
“The Ukrainian Army will need some time to absorb all the deliveries from the United States,” Mykhaylo Zhirokhov, a Ukrainian military analyst, told RFE/RL, and so "the Russians understand that they now have a very narrow window of opportunity and thus they already intensified their offensive actions."
Fresh Trenches, Few Munitions
Swarms of horseflies buzz above the heaps of wet ground along zigzagging trenches and above dugouts five meters deep. Despite the frequent shelling, Ukrainian soldiers are rushing to build the new defense lines between Chasiv Yar and nearby Kostyantynivka. “Ten days ago, it was all flat,” one of them, Oleksandr, told RFE/RL.
They may be sorely needed soon.
Freshly dug trenches outside Chasiv Yar
Roman, Volodymyr, Vadym, Eduard, and Kostyantyn, the members of an artillery crew from the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, spent the last three hours waiting as a Russian Lancet drone flew above their dugout. Two weeks ago a similar drone destroyed the shelter they’d been using before.
“Waiting is what we’ve mastered too well,” Roman, the group's commander, told RFE/RL. Despite multiple potential targets in the area, the unit could fire their 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer only once or twice a day due to a shortage of Soviet-era 152-millimeter shells, he said. With few possibilities to hit the enemy, the crew, consisting solely of conscripts, grew tired of months spent in dank and claustrophobic dugouts with just a few days of rotation every other week.
Soldiers from Ukraine's 22nd Mechanized Brigade in their dugout as a Russian Lancet drone flies above.
The 22nd Brigade has been stationed in the area since June 2023, and some of its members fought in the offensive in which Ukrainian forces recaptured the nearby village of Klishchiyivka last summer. Kostyantyn, a middle-aged man from Bucha, outside Kyiv, recalls the assaults on Russian positions as “a bad dream.” But without control of Chasiv Yar’s southern flank its defense would be much more difficult, he said.
Ukrainian troops have been suffering from ammunition shortages for months, and while the situation is said to be improving, Russia still has a huge numerical advantage.
Another artillery crew stationed around Chasiv Yar -- part of the Lyut Brigade formed by policemen who volunteered to fight -- is firing up to 100 105-millimeter shells a day from their U.S. M101 howitzer. The crew works for four days, rests for four, and changes their positions every two or three weeks, its commander, Vladyslav, told RFE/RL. The brigade's name can be translated as Rage.
But a Russian 2A65 Msta-B howitzer, which Ukrainian troops took as a trophy during their successful counteroffensive in the southern region of Kherson in the autumn of 2022, sits idly nearby most of the time. It was used efficiently during the push toward Klishchiyivka in the summer but with not a lot of ammunition left it is now only used for valuable targets, said Serhiy, a soldier who operates it.
It is not clear whether supplies of ammunition will suffice to stop the Russian offensive. Grim prognoses are made even by Ukrainian officials, including a deputy head of military intelligence, Major General Vadym Skibitsky. In an interview with The Economist, he said the fall of Chasiv Yar in a way similar to that of Avdiyivka, which Russian forces took in February, is “probably a matter of time,” depending on reserves and supplies.
"The optimistic scenario for this spring and summer is halting the Russian offensive," Oleksandr Musiyenko, a Ukrainian military expert, told RFE/RL.
Stronghold Under Fire
"With the technical advantages we have here it won't be an easy ride for the Russians", a commander of a reconnaissance unit from the 41st Mechanized Brigade who goes by the call sign Yankee told RFE/RL. The town is not only elevated but also bisected by the Siverskiy Donets-Donbas Canal, which provides a substantial natural barrier. The town’s outskirts are now fortified with ring-shaped trenches and minefields -- and trees sprouting fresh spring leaves make it difficult to detect targets such as his reconnaissance team, Yankee said.
Yankee, the commander of a reconnaissance unit of the 41st Mechanized Brigade, in a destroyed railway station in Kostyntynivka.
Still, Ukrainian troops struggle to survive under a rain of Russian air attacks. Russian jets are leveling Chasiv Yar, a town with a population of 13,000 before the full-scale invasion in February 2022, with heavy guided bombs that can leave craters up to 20 meters wide and six meters deep. Russian forces also fire up to 150 artillery shells per day at the town, according to Ukrainian soldiers.
The biggest nightmare for regular troops is the swarms of first-person-view (FPV) drones, a soldier who goes by call sign Jupiter and heads a Ukrainian drone team, told RFE/RL.
Members of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade prepare to launch a drone.
Cheap FVP drones -- small devices originally meant for personal civilian use but modified for the battlefield -- are used on a massive scale by both sides for attacks on equipment and personnel, as well as to drop grenades and other munitions. To minimize the chances of getting hit, soldiers have turned to agile pickup trucks and quad cars for transport and have begun installing radio-electronic warfare devices used to jam the enemy drones wherever possible.
According to Jupiter, who flew small commercial drones before and now operates a Greek-produced Poseidon surveillance drone, which can penetrate 50 kilometers behind enemy lines, Russia has developed an advantage in the drone race between the two armies.
Soldiers from 22nd Mechanized Brigade set up equipment for the launch of a Poseidon H10 surveillance drone.
“They keep coming but we need to stop them here,” said Yankee, who returned to Ukraine from the United States a few days before the full-scale invasion and volunteered to join the army. “Otherwise, they will go further, to my native Odesa and that is something I’d hate to see.”
The situation of several hundred civilians remaining in Chasiv Yar is dire, the head of the local city military administration, Serhiy Chaus told RFE/RL. Many are elderly people who insist on staying put despite the constant threat of death and rely on local authorities and volunteers to deliver food and other essentials.
The stakes in the battle for Chasiv Yar are also high for civilians in Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk, the four main cities in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Donetsk region. Russia’s capture of Chasiv Yar would make them more vulnerable to artillery fire and further degrade civilian life there.
An improvised monument commemorating fallen soldiers in Kostyantynivka.
'Not Long Enough'
Military experts warn that without legislation laying out plans to demobilize exhausted soldiers and replace them with recruits, the capabilities of the Ukrainian nearly million-strong army are declining.
Recruits from 22nd Mechanized Brigade listen to their instructor during the training.
On a recent morning, a group of recruits from the 22nd Brigade practiced field maneuvers, firing, and combat medicine on a training ground near Druzhkivka. Some of the men running on the grassy steppe in full combat gear had volunteered to fight, but most were conscripts -- and the average age was over 40. Only a few younger, fitter soldiers performed their tasks without losing their breath.
"Once they are ready, most likely in two or three weeks, they will join the battle for Chasiv Yar," the instructor, who uses the call sign Smart, told RFE/RL. He said that they had trained for a month at a different location before coming here.
Maksym, 23, who is from Kharkiv, a city further north that has been pounded by Russian bombardments for weeks, and recently volunteered to fight, will likely lead an eight-man infantry group. He told RFE/RL that he feels honor-bound and ready to "help my comrades defend Ukraine.” Mykola, 52, who worked as a metalworker until he was drafted, will serve in his unit. The training is “a bit too tough for me,” he said, but added that he must do his duty.
Recruits from 22nd Mechanized Brigade listen to their instructor during training.
Smart, who fought in the area himself, lamented that due to the intensity of the fighting and the need for new soldiers, the time taken to train recruits is “not long enough."
After a session with the recruits on the training ground, Yulia, a psychologist coaching the members of the brigade, told RFE/RL that soldiers are usually not psychologically prepared for the “stress that awaits them.”
“For now, they are afraid of the unknown,” she said.