If Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine turns into a prolonged conflict, almost 30 percent of the Eastern European country's population of 44 million could slip below the poverty line, while a further 62 percent would be at risk of also falling into poverty within a year, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has said.
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The UNDP cites the Ukrainian government's estimate that the war has so far caused a loss of at least $100 billion worth of critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and hospitals, and prompted the closure of at least half of Ukraine's businesses while the other half operates well below capacity.
"The war in Ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering with a tragic loss of life and the displacement of millions of people. While the need for immediate humanitarian assistance to Ukrainians is of the utmost importance, the acute development impacts of a protracted war are now becoming more apparent," UNDP administrator Achim Steiner said.
"An alarming economic decline, and the suffering and hardship it will bring to an already traumatized population must now come into sharper focus. There is still time to halt this grim trajectory."
The UNDP, one of the largest UN agencies on the ground in Ukraine whose long-standing partnership with the government has seen its activities extended into all of the country's 24 administrative regions and at least 332 municipalities, said that it had mobilized its extensive network to focus on "immediate crisis response and maintaining core government functions for emergency response management and public service delivery."
The UNDP at the same time urged an immediate end to the conflict.
"In order to avoid further suffering, destruction and impoverishment we need peace now," Steiner said.
"As part of the United Nations' unwavering commitment to the Ukrainian people, UNDP's primary focus is to help preserve hard-won development gains. That includes supporting the government to sustain critical governance structures and services, which constitute the bedrock of all societies."
The UNDP, which has remained operational in Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, proposed several immediate measures to reduce the impact of the conflict on the Ukrainians' welfare.
"UNDP joins the UN Crisis Coordinator in promoting the use of multipurpose cash assistance which could help reach the largest number of people in desperate need across the country," the UN agency said.
Based on early projections, the UNDP proposed as a first emergency measure a monthly cash disbursement of some $250 million that would act as a safety net for some 2.6 million people whose income losses would put them at immediate risk of falling into poverty.
"A more ambitious temporary basic income that provides a basic income of $5.50 per day per person would cost $430 million a month, based on initial estimates," the UNDP said.
The UNDP also envisages working with the UN refugee agency, the UNHCR, to come to the aid of the millions of Ukrainian refugees.
"This joint support to refugees and host communities," the UNDP said, "will focus on livelihoods through income generation and employment."