Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has "surpassed all our expectations" and will have "significant implications" for Europe's security order, former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow has told RFE/RL.
Vershbow, who was the U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2001 to 2005, said in an interview with RFE/RL's Georgian Service that Putin was "obsessed with the idea of undermining the post-Cold War order" and returning Europe to an era of spheres of influence where larger countries dominate smaller ones.
And this, he noted, means the Brussels-based Western military alliance is going to have to take a harder stance when dealing with the Kremlin in the future.
"Real power comes from military power. Putin certainly feels that way. And I think NATO is going to have to develop a culture of readiness and start talking Putin's language," the 69-year-old former diplomat said.
Vershbow said that with Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, Putin tore up the diplomatic rule book as he tries to rewrite history and keep the "virus" of democracy out of Russia.
Vershbow said NATO's enlargement to include several former Warsaw Pact countries that began in 1999 with the acceptance of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, "now looks smarter than ever."
But, he added, in hindsight it was also a reminder that "we should have done more when we had the chance to anchor Ukraine and Georgia" to the alliance.
"The U.S. came into the Bucharest summit [in April 2008] supporting Membership Action Plans for Georgia and Ukraine, but it had done absolutely nothing before that summit to galvanize allied support. It was interpreted by the allies as a kind of a legacy project for President [George W.] Bush, and they didn't see any need to accommodate it," Vershbow said.
Prior to the invasion, Russia had demanded guarantees on European security issues, including a commitment by NATO not to expand to countries such as Ukraine or Georgia.
Washington and NATO both balked at the suggestion, saying no country had the right to deny any other country its aspirations of membership to the alliance.
Vershbow said that he expected a "considerable beefing up of NATO's presence in Europe, along Russia's borders" as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, an outcome much the opposite of what Putin was looking for.
"NATO needs to think about its strategy. The dual-track strategy it has, deterrence and dialogue doesn't really translate into real policy that can influence Putin's choices," Vershbow said.
"We need some carrots in terms of dialogue and offering agreements where there's some common interest. But we also need bigger sticks to push Putin back and to make it much more painful for Putin to try. And the willingness to use it. And that's a hard question NATO today."