As European leaders attempt to organize a Ukraine peacekeeping mission amid a push by US President Donald Trump to clinch a cease-fire deal between Moscow and Kyiv, reports have spread that Beijing may want to play a role in maintaining the peace.
The German newspaper Die Welt quoted anonymous European Union diplomats on March 22 as saying that their Chinese counterparts have reached out to explore whether their peacekeepers could work as part of the broader force being considered in European capitals. The idea was raised earlier this year at the World Economic Forum and Munich Security Conference.
The EU diplomats told the German newspaper that Chinese participation in such a mission “could potentially increase Russia's acceptance of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.”
But Beijing rebuffed that claim, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun calling the report false on March 24.
Three EU diplomats who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal matters also said that there have been no discussions with Chinese officials about Beijing’s participation in a peacekeeping force.
“Zero contact on that,” said one EU diplomat.
Another EU diplomat speaking anonymously was not aware of Beijing raising the issue of Chinese peacekeepers, adding that “we don’t know where the Welt article’s information comes from.”
This comes as European leaders try to hammer out details of how the so-called “coalition of the willing” led by Britain and France could help Ukraine deter Russia from reinvading once a peace agreement is reached. French President Emmanuel Macron will host leaders of the coalition -- including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy -- in Paris on March 27 for the next round of talks as they explore a variety of options to secure a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Theresa Fallon, director of the Brussels-based Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, says that there's "a lot to question" about the latest rumor about Chinese peacekeepers and that it reflects the uncertainty facing Europe’s security framework as the Trump administration pivots to accommodate Russia while rejecting requests to contribute US troops to enforce any peace deal.
“Why would Russia want Chinese troops there? How would China benefit from this?" Fallon told RFE/RL. "It might score points with Europeans, but the fact that China denied this perhaps points to the larger strategic picture that Moscow has different plans for Ukraine and also prefers to limit China’s influence in the region.”
Why Do Chinese Peacekeepers Keep Getting Mentioned For Ukraine?
This isn’t the first time that a Chinese peacekeeping force has been floated for Ukraine.
Zhou Bo, a former senior colonel in the Chinese armed forces, suggested on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February that China could lead a UN-backed peacekeeping force in Ukraine should one get launched, saying that Beijing and other non-Western powers like India could play a role.
The Economist also reported in January that the potential role of Chinese peacekeepers in Ukraine was also mentioned by US Vice President JD Vance, who allegedly told European officials a force made up of only European troops would be less effective in preventing Russia from launching further attacks on Ukraine.
A Chinese peacekeeping contingent was also mentioned as an option at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January by Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German diplomat who serves as the president of the foundation that runs the Munich Security Conference.
Part of Ischinger’s argument at the time was that Europe may simply not have enough troops to maintain peace along the more than 1,000-kilometer line of contact. And those discussions are still playing out as European leaders aim to put together their own peacekeeping proposal that could see them send 10,000 to 30,000 troops to Ukraine.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in a recent report that a force of up to 30,000 troops backed by long-range artillery with broader air and maritime support would be able to handle more than one Russian incursion should Moscow look to break a peace deal.
But IISS estimated that 60,000 to 100,000 troops would be needed to conduct sustained high-intensity land combat, adding that European militaries may not be able to raise such as force as it would drain resources from across the rest of NATO’s borders with Russia.
Could Chinese Peacekeepers In Ukraine Work?
Another major concern is that European troops deployed to Ukraine could get sucked into a hot war with Russia without substantial US support to back them up. Moscow has also categorically refused to accept troops from a country that is a member of NATO in any future peace deal.
Analysts see the deployment of Chinese peacekeeping troops -- along with those of other nations like India or Brazil that have warmer ties with Moscow -- as one solution to this problem, saying Russian forces would be less likely to fire on them.
But analysts also say that adding Chinese peacekeepers into the conversation around Ukraine also raises new difficult questions: Would Beijing, which views itself as a superpower on the global stage, accept being part of a European-led force?
China would also need to bear in mind that contributing peacekeepers to a Western mission could also strain its valued relations with Moscow, which have grown closer since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Yurii Poita, an expert on Ukraine's relationship with China at the Kyiv-based Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, says that Ukraine may not oppose Chinese peacekeepers because it has a weak hand in negotiations. Nevertheless, Kyiv has little trust in Beijing given it supports Russia’s war effort.
“The most decisive factor is the United States. If Washington were to suggest that China could be part of this security arrangement, then Kyiv doesn't really have many other options,” Poita told RFE/RL. “But when it comes to Chinese troops, there are also so many vulnerabilities from Kyiv’s point of view.”
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine three years ago, China has mostly ignored Ukraine and been a vital backer of Russia. Beijing has professed neutrality and even proposed its own peace outline in February 2023, but it has also aided Russia by buying oil and gas and selling technology for weapons.
“Would China provide information to Russia? Would China say that this deployment is in exchange for access to military tech or telecoms networks?” Poita asked. “There is a lot of risk here.”
