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Iran, European Powers Agree To Continue Dialogue

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran and European powers will meet soon to continue their dialogue. (file photo)
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran and European powers will meet soon to continue their dialogue. (file photo)

Iran and three European powers agreed to continue their dialogue "in the near future" after a meeting in Geneva as intelligence officials warned Tehran's nuclear proliferation poses a "critical threat" in the coming months.

Negotiators from Iran and the so-called E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) met in Switzerland to discuss a range of issues, including Iran's expanding nuclear program, its military support for Russia, and conflicts in the Middle East.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi wrote on X on November 29 that the talks in the Swiss city focused on the latest bilateral, regional, and international developments, "especially the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions."

"We are firmly committed to pursuing the interests of our people, and our preference is the path of dialogue and engagement," Gharibabadi said.

Ahead of the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said it would be a “brainstorming session” to see “if there really is a way out” of the current nuclear impasse, among other issues.

Separately, the spy chiefs of Britain and France raised the alarm about Iran’s growing relationship with Russia and its accelerating nuclear program.

The meeting in Geneva came a week after the 35-member board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a censure resolution against Iran.

It also tasked the UN nuclear watchdog to prepare a “comprehensive and updated assessment” on the state of Iran’s expanding nuclear program, including past and present attempts to develop a bomb.

The report could pave the way for referring Iran’s case to the UN Security Council to trigger the so-called “snapback” mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions lifted under the terms of the 2015 agreement with world powers.

In response to the resolution, Iran said it would begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges at its key nuclear facilities in Fordo and Natanz, the IAEA announced on November 29.

The agency noted, however, that Iran would be enriching uranium to 5 percent purity -- even though it is enriching uranium with less advanced machines at 60 percent.

Richard Moore, head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service, known as MI6, said on November 29 that if Russia were to meet its Ukraine war objectives, “China would weigh the implications, North Korea would be emboldened, and Iran would become still more dangerous.”

He added that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were “a continued threat” -- a sentiment shared by Nicolas Lerner, head of France's foreign intelligence service.

"Our services are working side by side to face what is undoubtedly one of the threats, if not to say the most critical threat, in the coming months -- the possible atomic proliferation in Iran," Lerner said in Geneva.

With reporting by Reuters and AP
Updated

Iran Warns It Could Go Nuclear Ahead Of Talks With European Powers

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi gives a briefing on the sidelines of a UN event in Lisbon on November 27.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi gives a briefing on the sidelines of a UN event in Lisbon on November 27.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi says his country may change its nuclear doctrine and develop a bomb if UN sanctions are reimposed on Tehran.

Speaking to reporters on November 28 in Lisbon, Portugal, Araqchi said Iran had long had the technical know-how to build a bomb but doing so "is not part of Tehran’s security strategy," according to Iranian media.

His comments come as negotiators from Iran and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) are scheduled to meet in Geneva to discuss a range of issues, including Iran’s nuclear program and conflicts in the Middle East.

Araqchi described the meeting on November 29 as a “brainstorming session” to see “if there really is a way out” of the current nuclear impasse.

The Geneva meeting is not billed as nuclear talks by any party but Iran’s atomic program is expected to be a central topic. Talks between Iran and world powers to restore the 2015 nuclear deal have stalled since September 2022.

Last week, the 35-member board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a censure resolution against Iran and tasked the UN nuclear watchdog to prepare a “comprehensive and updated assessment” on the state of Iran’s expanding nuclear program, including past and present attempts to develop a bomb.

The report could pave the way for referring Iran’s case to the UN Security Council in a bid to trigger the so-called “snapback” mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions that had been lifted under the terms of the 2015 agreement with world powers.

In response to the resolution, Iran activated several “new and advanced” centrifuges to enrich uranium.

Araqchi said he was “not optimistic” about the Geneva talks because he was unsure whether Tehran was “speaking to the right party.”

The 2015 nuclear agreement began to unravel after President-elect Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the accord during his first term in office in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Tehran responded by expanding its nuclear program, limiting inspections of its nuclear sites, and enriching uranium to as high as 60 percent.

Updated

Iran Plans To Install 'New Advanced' Centrifuges In Response To IAEA Resolution

International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi attends an agency board meeting in Vienna on November 20.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi attends an agency board meeting in Vienna on November 20.

Iran has vowed to respond to a resolution adopted by the United Nations' nuclear watchdog that criticizes the Islamic republic for what it says is poor cooperation by installing a number of "new and advanced" centrifuges.

The resolution, which comes shortly after the return of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi from a trip to Iran, reportedly says it is "essential and urgent" for Tehran to "act to fulfill its legal obligations."

A joint statement by Iran's Foreign Ministry and Atomic Energy Organization said on November 22 that the country's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, "issued an order to take effective measures, including launching a significant series of new and advanced centrifuges of various types."

The Iranian announcement came after the IAEA's board on November 21 issued a second resolution condemning Tehran's cooperation with the agency after a similar warning in June.

Some analysts say the resolution may be a step toward making a political decision to trigger a "snapback" of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions against Iran.

The "snapback" mechanism is outlined in UNSC Resolution 2231, which enshrined a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. However, the option to reimpose the sanctions expires in October 2025.

The IAEA resolution, put forward by France, Germany, and Britain and supported by the United States, comes at a critical time as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return at the White House in January.

Trump during his first term embarked on a "maximum pressure" campaign of intensified sanctions on Iran and unilaterally withdrew the United States in 2018 from a landmark 2015 agreement that lifted some sanctions on Iran in exchange of curbs to its nuclear program, which the West suspects is aimed at obtaining a nuclear weapon. Iran claims its nuclear program is peaceful.

The resolution passed on November 21 also urged Iran to cooperate with an investigation launched after uranium particles were found at two sites that Iranian authorities had not declared as nuclear locations.

Nineteen of the 35 members of the IAEA board voted in favor of the resolution. Russia, China, and Burkina Faso opposed it, 12 members abstained, while one did not vote, diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity told the AP.

It also calls on the IAEA to come up with a "comprehensive report" on Iran's nuclear activities by spring.

During Grossi's visit, Iran agreed with an IAEA demand to limit its stock of uranium enriched at 60 percent purity, which is still under the 90 percent threshold needed for a nuclear weapon, but it is much higher than the 3.67 percent limit it agreed to in the 2015 deal.

However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was Tehran's chief negotiator for the 2015 agreement, warned that Iran would not negotiate "under pressure."

Tehran has responded to previous similar resolutions by moves such as removing IAEA cameras and monitoring equipment from several nuclear sites, and increasing uranium enrichment to 60 percent purity at a second site, the Fordow plant.

Iranian Foreign Minister Says There's A 'Limited' Chance For Nuclear Talks With West

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi (file photo)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi (file photo)

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on November 16 that there remains a "limited opportunity" for nuclear negotiations with the West, according to Iranian state media.

Relations between Tehran and the United States have been especially tense since then-President Donald Trump withdrew unilaterally from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and global powers and reimposed tough U.S. sanctions on Iran.

"There is still an opportunity for diplomacy, although this opportunity is not much. It is a limited opportunity," Araqchi was quoted as telling state television.

Western concerns at Iranian actions have soared amid the yearlong war in the Gaza Strip after U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization Hamas carried out a brutal attack in Israel in October 2023, with Iranian allies including Huthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon attacking Israel in support of Hamas.

With Trump poised to return to the White House in January following his election victory earlier this month, reports circulated of possible informal contacts, including claims that Trump ally Elon Musk met last week in New York with Iran's envoy to the United Nations.

After days of silence, Tehran on November 16 "categorically denied" that any such meeting took place.

This week, Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), urged Iran and its global partners to achieve "concrete, tangible, and visible results" in talks over Tehran's nuclear program as the return of Trump could mean the window for diplomacy is closing.

The 2015 deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), had given Iran some limited relief from international sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program designed to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

After Washington's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran expanded its nuclear program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites.

U.S. President Joe Biden entered the White House in 2017 pledging to try to revive the deal but made no breakthroughs.

Trump's announced pick for secretary of state, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, is generally regarded as an advocate of tough action to counter Iranian influence through a return to a "maximum pressure" policy.

With additional reporting by AFP

IAEA Chief Visits Iran's Underground Nuclear Enrichment Sites

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi (second from left) visits a uranium enrichment facility in Natanz on November 15.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi (second from left) visits a uranium enrichment facility in Natanz on November 15.

Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has visited Iran’s key underground uranium enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz, Iranian state media reported on November 15, without offering details. Iran has restricted inspection of its nuclear sites and barred several IAEA inspectors from visiting its enrichment facilities. Grossi is in Iran to push for diplomacy, warning that the “space for negotiation…is getting smaller” over Iran’s advancing nuclear program. Tehran insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. The visit comes ahead of an upcoming meeting of the IAEA's Board of Governors, where some nations are pushing for action against the Islamic republic.

Israel Presses Ahead With Lebanon Incursion After Strikes On Beirut Kill 9

Smoke rises over Beirut on October 3 following an Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital.
Smoke rises over Beirut on October 3 following an Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital.

Israel's incursion into south Lebanon continued on October 3 hours after a strike on an apartment building in downtown Beirut killed 9 people while a separate action in the West Bank eliminated a Palestinian militant who was once involved in the lynchings of Israeli reservists.

The Israeli Army also urged the immediate evacuation of more than 20 towns in south Lebanon including the provincial capital, Nabatieh, a move that apparently indicates the Israeli operation against Hezbollah is about to be expanded.

Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.

The Lebanese Health Ministry said the strike on Beirut killed 9 people, in what was the first attack on the center of the Lebanese capital since 2006 as Iran's military warned it would launch broader strikes if the Jewish state responds to its October 1 missile attack.

Israel said its air strike on Beirut was a precise operation, while a security source said the target was an apartment building in the capital's central district of Bachoura near the Lebanese parliament.

A Hezbollah-linked civil defense group said seven of its members, including two medics, had been killed in the Beirut attack.

Aftermath Of Israeli Attack On Beirut
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Aftermath Of Israeli Attack On Beirut

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A separate missile attack on a building in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil killed 15 Hezbollah members, while another strike targeted the southern suburb of Dahiyeh, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed last week, according to Lebanese security officials.

Hamas media and medics, meanwhile, said Israel has killed Abdel-Aziz Salha, a West Bank militant from the U.S. and EU terrorist-designated group who had once been jailed for life for taking part in the lynching of two Israeli reservists in Ramallah in 2000 but was later deported to Gaza in a prisoner swap.

Also on October 3, Israel's military announced that it had "eliminated" Rawhi Mushtaha, the head of the Hamas government in Gaza, along with senior security officials Sameh al-Siraj and Sami Oudeh in strikes three months ago.

Earlier, an Israeli strike on Syria's capital, Damascus, killed four people, including Hassan Jaafar al-Qasir, Nasrallah's son-in-law, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor.

The latest Israeli strikes came a day after Israel reported that eight of its soldiers were killed during its incursion in south Lebanon -- the deadliest day for the Israeli military since launching the cross-border raid this week.

Will Iran's Attacks On Israel Trigger A Regional Blowup?
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The Lebanese Army reported on October 3 that two of its soldiers were killed over the past 24 hours by Israeli fire, while Health Minister Firass Abiad said that a total of 1,974 people have been killed, including 127 children, and 9,384 wounded since the start of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon over the past year.

Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the German and Austrian ambassadors on October 3 after their governments rebuked Tehran over its missile attack on Israel, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.

The move came in response to "unacceptable measures" by Germany and Austria in summoning Iran's envoys over the October 1 attack.

Tehran launched a massive ballistic-missile attack on Israel on October 1, its largest so far, in retaliation for the campaign started by the Jewish state in southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah, prompting warnings of countermeasures from Israel and its main ally, the United States.

Israeli air defenses intercepted most of the estimated 180 missiles that were fired, though some landed in central and southern Israel.

On October 2, Iran's military chief, Major General Mohammad Bagheri said the missile attack launched by Tehran had been limited to military targets, but claimed that in case of an Israeli response, larger Iranian strikes would follow.

"If the Zionist regime is not controlled and takes action against Iran, we will target all of its infrastructure," he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said in a message on X that the attack targeted "solely military and security sites" involved in what he said was the Israeli "genocide in Gaza and Lebanon" and was conducted by Iran in "self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter."

Bagheri's statement came after Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian also warned Israel against retaliating and promised a strong response.

"We are not looking for war. It is Israel that forces us to react," Pezeshkian said after arriving in Qatar for a summit with Asian countries.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he would strike back at Iran following the October 1 missile attack as fears grow of a full-blown regional war, while Israel's UN ambassador, Danny Danon, told CNN that the response to the Iranian attack will be "very strong, painful," and will come "soon.”

There has been speculation that Israeli might attack sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program, but U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support that.

Biden's comments came after he and fellow Group of Seven (G7) leaders spoke by phone on October 2 to discuss coordinating new sanctions against Iran.

The G7 leaders "unequivocally condemned Iran's attack against Israel" and Biden reiterated the United States' "full solidarity and support to Israel and its people," a White House statement said.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei on October 3 thrashed the G7 statement, saying that the West's condemnation of its attack on Israel was "biased and irresponsible."

Iran Can Produce Fissile Material For Bomb In 'Weeks,' U.S. Says

A photo released in 2019 by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility.
A photo released in 2019 by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility.

Iran is capable of producing fissile material for use in a nuclear weapon within "one or two weeks," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on July 19. Despite comments by Iran's new president, Masud Pezeshkian, who has said he favors reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and global powers, Blinken said the United States had seen indications in recent weeks that Iran has moved forward with its nuclear program. Blinken blamed the collapse of the nuclear deal in 2018 for the acceleration in Iran's capabilities. "Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, [Iran] is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that," Blinken said at a security forum in Colorado.

U.S. Slaps Fresh Sanctions On Iranian Entities, Vessels Over Nuclear Escalations

An underground nuclear site in a photo released in 2019 by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran
An underground nuclear site in a photo released in 2019 by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran

The United States on June 27 issued fresh sanctions against Iran in response to Tehran further expanding its nuclear program, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

"Over the past month, Iran has announced steps to further expand its nuclear program in ways that have no credible peaceful purpose," Blinken said. "We remain committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon, and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome."

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The new sanctions take aim at three companies based in the United Arab Emirates and 11 vessels used in the export of Iranian petroleum or petrochemical products, Blinken said.

Earlier this month, the Group of Seven nations warned Iran against advancing its nuclear enrichment program and said it would be ready to impose new measures if Tehran were to transfer ballistic missiles to Russia.

Iran rebuked the statement, calling on the G7 to distance itself from "destructive policies of the past."

Blinken in his June 27 announcement also cited the G7 statement, saying Iran “must cease its escalations with regard to its nuclear program as well as its other destabilizing actions.”

Blinken said Iran’s actions to increase its enrichment capacity are all the more concerning in light of statements by Iranian officials suggesting potential changes to Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian purposes, but government officials caused alarm recently by saying it could change its "nuclear doctrine" if it is attacked or its existence is threatened by Israel.

Blinken also said Tehran’s “continued failure to cooperate" with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was worrisome. The board of governors of the IAEA on June 5 passed a resolution calling on Iran to step up cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and reverse its decision to bar inspectors.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry slammed the vote, describing it as a “political and unconstructive” move.

With reporting by Reuters

Iran Slams 'Unconstructive' Resolution By Nuclear Watchdog, Vows 'No Retreat'

The 35-nation board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency has voted to censure Iran. (file photo)
The 35-nation board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency has voted to censure Iran. (file photo)

Iran has criticized a resolution by the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) calling on Tehran to step up its cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

The IAEA’s 35-nation board on June 5 voted 20-2, with 12 abstentions, to adopt the censure resolution tabled by Britain, France, and Germany -- the three Western European nations that are party to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and are known as the E3.

In a statement, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it “strongly condemns” the resolution, which it described as a “political and unconstructive” move.

It added that Tehran is “committed to continue its technical cooperation” with the watchdog under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA.

Ahead of the vote, Iran had warned that it would respond to the censure resolution.

Behruz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), said after the adoption of the resolution that Tehran had “started taking steps” in response to the vote. He did not elaborate.

“Past experience should have proved to them [the West] that Iran does not retreat from its inalienable rights in the face of political pressure,” he said.

Nour News, an Iranian outlet affiliated with Ali Shamkhani, senior political adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, warned on June 6 that applying pressure on Tehran would only encourage it to expand its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the Kayhan newspaper, whose chief editor is appointed by the supreme leader, on June 6 demanded the expulsion of all IAEA inspectors from Iran. It also alleged that the resolution was meant to influence Iran’s upcoming presidential election by forcing voters to elect a government willing to negotiate with the West.

Despite its adoption, the resolution did not receive as many votes in favor as the last two resolutions. A June 2022 resolution was adopted 30-2, while a November 2022 resolution was passed 26-2.

Iran responded to the June 2022 resolution by removing IAEA cameras and monitoring equipment from several nuclear sites. In reaction to the November 2022 censure, Tehran started to enrich uranium to 60 percent purity at a second site, the Fordo plant.

In September 2023, despite there being no resolution against Iran, the Islamic republic moved to bar several experienced UN inspectors from monitoring its equipment.

The new resolution calls on Iran to reinstate the veteran inspectors.

Iran insists that it has been cooperative with the IAEA, but the agency’s director-general, Rafael Grossi, maintains that Tehran has failed to provide “technically credible” explanations for traces of uranium found in two old but undeclared sites.

Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the resolution may be a step by European powers toward “taking a political decision” to trigger a “snapback” of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions against Iran.

The “snapback” mechanism is outlined in UNSC Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. However, the option to reimpose the sanctions expires in October 2025.

“With the activation of the ‘snapback’ mechanism, we go back to how things were 15 years ago, when six UN resolutions obliged the world to put Iran under pressure,” Golriz said.

Written by Kian Sharifi based on reporting by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda and AP
Updated

IAEA Calls For Iran To Increase Cooperation, End Ban On Inspectors

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi (center) attends the board of governors meeting at the agency's headquarters in Vienna on June 3.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi (center) attends the board of governors meeting at the agency's headquarters in Vienna on June 3.

The board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on June 5 approved a resolution calling on Iran to step up cooperation with the IAEA and to reconsider its decision to bar the agency's inspectors.

The resolution, proposed by Britain, France, and Germany, passed 20-2 with 12 abstentions, diplomats said. The two no votes were cast by Russia and China.

Iranian state TV said passage of the resolution "was hasty and unwise, and it will undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on the process of diplomatic engagement and constructive cooperation" between Iran and the opposite parties.

The resolution follows another passed 18 months ago that ordered Iran to immediately respond to questions from IAEA inspectors about the origin of uranium particles found at its undeclared sites.

Although the number of sites under inspection has decreased from three to two, the IAEA says that Iran has not yet given the agency a convincing explanation about the origin of these uranium particles.

Britain, France, and Germany said in a statement to the Board of Governors it should have held Iran accountable for its legal obligations long ago.

The statement emphasizes that "Iran must urgently, fully, and unambiguously cooperate with the agency."

Since the approval of the previous resolution, the list of issues faced by the IAEA in Iran has grown, and the new resolution requires Iran to resolve these numerous problems.

At the end of last summer, Tehran barred the participation of many senior IAEA experts in the inspection group, which IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said was "disproportionate and unprecedented" and a "serious blow" to the UN nuclear watchdog in carrying out its mission.

The board "calls on Iran to reverse its withdrawal of the designations of several experienced agency inspectors which is essential to fully allow the agency to conduct its verification activities in Iran effectively," the resolution said.

The resolution called the presence of these uranium-enrichment experts in inspections of Iran's nuclear activities "vital."

Grossi traveled to Iran last month hoping to break a deadlock on the probe into the uranium particles, address the issue of the barred inspectors, and expand IAEA monitoring to parts of Iran's nuclear program that were covered under a 2015 deal with major powers.

The deal fell apart after Iran responded to the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018 by abandoning its provisions, including IAEA monitoring of activities such as the production of parts for centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium.

The agency currently does not know how many Iran has or where they are.

With reporting by Reuters

Iran's Stockpile Of Enriched Uranium Continues To Increase, Says UN Nuclear Watchdog

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (left) holds a news conference in Tehran with Iran's nuclear energy chief, Mohammad Eslami, on May 7.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (left) holds a news conference in Tehran with Iran's nuclear energy chief, Mohammad Eslami, on May 7.

Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential May 27 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity is now 142.1 kilograms -- an increase of 20.6 kilograms since the watchdog's last report in February. The IAEA also said that the deaths of Iran's president and foreign minister in a helicopter crash on May 19 have forced a pause in the UN nuclear watchdog's talks with Tehran over improving cooperation.

EU Urges Iran To 'Reverse Nuclear Trajectory' As Tehran Threatens To Cross Threshold

 The European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (left) meets Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian in Tehran in June 2022.
The European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (left) meets Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian in Tehran in June 2022.

The European Union has joined the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in urging Iran to abandon suggestions that it might develop nuclear weapons.

"We continue to call Iran to reverse its nuclear trajectory and show concrete steps, such as urgently improve cooperation with the IAEA," EU spokesman Peter Stano told RFE/RL in written comments on May 16.

The Islamic republic has long claimed that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes, but a growing number of officials in recent weeks have openly suggested that Iran might review its nuclear doctrine if it deems it necessary.

A landmark deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and world powers in 2015 restricted Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions.

However, Iran expanded its program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites after then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

The EU, which is the coordinator of the JCPOA's Joint Commission, mediated several rounds of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington from 2021 to 2022.

The 27-member bloc presented a final draft of an agreement to revive the deal in August 2022, but talks broke down soon after as Tehran and Washington accused each other of making excessive demands.

"Our goal has always been to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, through a diplomatic solution," Stano said, adding that the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, and his team continue efforts to revive the Iran deal.

Iran has particularly upped the rhetoric since last month, when it launched an unprecedented missile and drone attack against its archfoe Israel in response to a deadly air strike on its embassy compound in Syria that killed several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

An IRGC general at the time warned that an attack on Iran's nuclear sites could lead to a rethinking of its policy on nuclear weapons.

Kamal Kharazi, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a former foreign minister, repeated the threat earlier this week.

"We do not want nuclear weapons and the supreme leader's fatwa is to that effect. But if the enemy threatens you, what do you do?" he said.

The fatwa refers to a religious decree by Khamenei in which he said the Islamic republic considers the use of nuclear weapons to be "haram" and Iran would not pursue one.

The fatwa has long been cited by the Iranian authorities as evidence that Iran would never weaponize its nuclear program. Experts, however, question how effective of a barrier the fatwa really is.

Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said, "The nuclear fatwa does not pose an insurmountable religious or legal obstacle inside Iran for the system there to pursue nuclear weapons or potentially build them."

Despite the public comments by Iranian officials, the Foreign Ministry has insisted that there has been no change in the country's nuclear doctrine.

Stano said that it "is imperative to show utmost restraint" given the heightened tensions in the Middle East.

"Further escalation in the region -- also in the form of statements about the nuclear posture, even if not reflecting the official position of the country -- is in no one's interest," he added.

In response to in Iran's new rhetoric, the United States has said it "will not allow" Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons.

Separately, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi has called on Iran to "stop" suggestions that it might review its nuclear posture.

Going Nuclear: Iran's New Rhetorical Deterrence

Western states worry that Iranian satellite carriers can be designed to deliver nuclear warheads. (file photo)
Western states worry that Iranian satellite carriers can be designed to deliver nuclear warheads. (file photo)

Acquiring nuclear weapons has long been a taboo topic in Iran, where the country's supreme leader has declared them un-Islamic.

But a growing number of Iranian officials in recent weeks have openly suggested that the Islamic republic could weaponize its nuclear program, which Tehran has long claimed is strictly for civilian purposes.

The change in rhetoric has coincided with Tehran's growing hostilities with Israel. Last month, Israel launched an attack on Iran in response to Tehran's unprecedented missile and drone assault on its archfoe.

Experts say Iran's growing threats to build nuclear weapons is worrying, although they maintain that the statements are likely geared toward deterring another attack on Iranian soil.

Eric Brewer, deputy vice president of the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, said the Iranian threats appeared to be "conditional."

"I do think that if Israel or the United States carried out an attack on Iran's nuclear program, there is a very good chance that Tehran would in fact decide to build nuclear weapons," he said.

Real Or Rhetoric?

Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister and current adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned on May 13 that if Israel threatens Iran, "we might review our nuclear doctrine."

"We do not want nuclear weapons and the supreme leader's fatwa is to that effect. But if the enemy threatens you, what do you do?" he said.

Days earlier, in an interview with Al-Jazeera, Kharazi said Iran "has the capacity to produce a bomb," though the country had not taken the actual step of making one.

Just before Israel's April 19 strike on Iran, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps warned that an attack that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities would prompt a reciprocal attack on Israel and could lead to a rethinking of Iran's stance on nuclear weapons.

Brewer said what lent the threats "a degree of credibility" is that Iran's nuclear program is far more advanced today than it was in the past.

A landmark deal with world powers in 2015 restricted Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. But then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement and reimposed sanctions in 2018, leading Tehran to accelerate its uranium enrichment and limit international inspections of its nuclear sites.

Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, says failed international efforts to revive the nuclear accord could be behind Tehran's recent threats to build nuclear weapons.

Another reason, he said, could be to “deter the current or a future U.S. administration from undertaking another ‘maximum pressure’-style economic and military campaign against Iran.”

Fatwa Not An Obstacle

In 2010, Khamenei issued a fatwa, or religious decree, saying that Iran considers the use of nuclear weapons to be "haram" and that the country would not pursue one.

The fatwa has been cited as evidence by Iranian officials that the Islamic republic does not seek nuclear weapons.

But Brewer said Khamenei's fatwa was "not a meaningful barrier to Iran building the bomb."

"Iran could in theory do most of the work on a weapon with the fatwa in place and then Khamenei could rescind it at the last minute," he added.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) visits an exhibition of Iran's nuclear achievements at his office compound in Tehran in June 2023.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) visits an exhibition of Iran's nuclear achievements at his office compound in Tehran in June 2023.

Despite the public comments by Iranian officials, the Foreign Ministry has insisted that there has been no change in the country's nuclear doctrine.

Sabet said this dual messaging could "reflect a debate inside the system in Iran, in which the balance of power or consensus until recently did not favor building and deploying nuclear weapons, but which may be shifting."

Some Iranian media reports have said that the country has enough enriched uranium to produce 10 nuclear bombs.

Brewer says U.S. estimates suggest that it would take Iran about two weeks to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a bomb. But he says manufacturing a deliverable nuclear device could take months, or even more than a year.

Senior Iranian Official Threatens Change In Nuclear Doctrine

Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility (file photo)
Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility (file photo)

A senior Iranian official has issued a stark warning that Tehran might change its nuclear doctrine and begin to build nuclear bombs if the nation's existence is threatened.

Kamal Kharrazi, head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in an interview aired on Al-Jazeera Arabic that Iran "has the capacity to produce a bomb," though the country has not taken the actual step of making one.

"Two years ago in an interview with Al-Jazeera, I announced that Iran has the capacity to produce a nuclear bomb. That capacity still exists today, but we have no intention of producing a nuclear bomb. However, if the existence of Iran is threatened, we will have to change our nuclear doctrine," he said.

The comments come at a time of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, further complicated by the international community's concern over Iran's nuclear ambitions. The Islamic republic has repeatedly claimed that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, despite possessing the technical capabilities for weaponization.

A nuclear deal in 2015 lifted U.S. sanctions against Tehran, but in 2018, then-U.S. President Donald Trump left the agreement and Washington has since ratcheted up measures against Iran that have choked the country's economy.

Efforts to revive the deal have failed, and Tehran has violated terms of the pact by producing uranium with a higher enrichment threshold.

In March, Bloomberg News quoted a senior U.S. Defense Department official as saying Iran was less than 12 days away from obtaining the fissile material necessary to produce an atomic bomb.

The threat of a shift in doctrine follows an incident last month when Israel is said to have targeted a radar system at a base near the city of Isfahan.

The attack followed an incident on April 13, when Iran retaliated against an Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus that claimed the lives of seven senior officers from the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran launched hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles at Israel, though almost all failed to hit targets inside Israel.

After Khamenei issued a fatwa, or religious ruling, against nuclear weapons in 2005, officials were adamant that Tehran’s nuclear program was strictly for civilian purposes. But the rhetoric has shifted in recent years.

In the interview, Kharrazi also made reference to potential reactions to any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

"If they want to strike at Iran's nuclear capabilities, it could naturally lead to a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine," he said.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned earlier this month that Iran is only weeks away from having enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. Grossi has criticized Tehran’s cooperation with the agency as "unacceptable" and called for a significant shift in Iran's nuclear policy.

Kharrazi also hinted at the possibility of Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and potentially moving toward developing nuclear weapons. Iran had previously warned it would leave the NPT if its regime felt threatened.

Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

IAEA Chief Says Cooperation From Iran 'Completely Unsatisfactory'

 "We are almost at an impasse," IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said following his trip to Iran.
"We are almost at an impasse," IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said following his trip to Iran.

UN atomic watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on May 7 that cooperation from Iran at present was "completely unsatisfactory" after returning from Tehran, where he urged the country to adopt "concrete" measures to address concerns on its nuclear program. "We have to be moving on.... The present state is completely unsatisfactory for me. We are almost at an impasse...and this needs to be changed," the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told reporters at the Vienna airport.

IAEA Chief In Iran As Concern Grows Over Nuclear Activity

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi (file photo)
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi (file photo)

UN atomic watchdog chief Rafael Grossi arrived in Iran on May 6, where he is expected to speak at a conference and meet officials for talks on Tehran's nuclear program. The visit comes at a time of heightened regional tensions and with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) criticizing Iran for lack of cooperation on inspections and other outstanding issues. Grossi is scheduled to meet Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, as well as the Islamic republic's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami.

Iran Says UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Will Visit Tehran

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi (center) looks on during a news conference with the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, as they meet in Tehran in March 2022.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi (center) looks on during a news conference with the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, as they meet in Tehran in March 2022.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, will shortly be travelling to Tehran to resume nuclear talks with the Iranian side, a top Iranian official said on April 17. "We have good cooperation with the IAEA and the IAEA chief will also come to Tehran soon to continue the bilateral talks and update them, so to speak," Iran's nuclear boss, Mohammad Eslami, said, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA. Grossi said in an interview with CNN on April 16 that he was "considering" visiting Tehran.

Head Of UN Nuclear Watchdog Says Iran Is 'Not Entirely Transparent' About Its Atomic Program

Rafael Grossi is the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. (file photo)
Rafael Grossi is the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. (file photo)

The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog warned on February 13 that Iran is “not entirely transparent” regarding its atomic program, particularly after an official who once led Tehran's program announced that the Islamic Republic has all the pieces for a weapon “in our hands.” Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, just across the Persian Gulf, Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, alluded to remarks made this weekend by Ali Akbar Salehi. Since the collapse of a 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers, Iran has pursued nuclear enrichment just below weapons-grade levels.

Iran Announces Successful Launch Of Three Satellites

The launch also saw the successful use of Iran's Simorgh rocket, which has had multiple failures in the past.
The launch also saw the successful use of Iran's Simorgh rocket, which has had multiple failures in the past.

Iran announced on January 28 that it successfully launched three satellites into space, the latest for a program that the West says improves Tehran's ballistic missiles. The state-run IRNA news agency said the launch also saw the successful use of Iran's Simorgh rocket, which has had multiple failures in the past. State TV named the launched satellites as Mahda, Kayhan-2, and Hatef-1. It described the Mahda as a research satellite, while the Kayhan and the Hatef were nanosatellites focused on global positioning and communication, respectively. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

France, Germany, U.K., U.S., Condemn Iran's Increase In Uranium Enrichment

Various centrifuge machines line a hallway at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility.
Various centrifuge machines line a hallway at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility.

France, Germany, Britain, and the United States on December 28 condemned Iran's increase in production of highly enriched uranium following an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report earlier this week. "We urge Iran to immediately reverse these steps and de-escalate its nuclear program," the countries said in a joint statement. "We remain committed to a diplomatic solution and reaffirm our determination that Iran must never develop a nuclear weapon," they said. The IAEA report said Iran had "increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023." (Reuters)

Iran Rejects IAEA Report On Increased Enriched-Uranium Output

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (file photo)
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi (file photo)

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization has rejected a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that production of highly enriched uranium has been ramped up sharply. "We are pursuing our current activities within the rules framework," Mohammad Eslami said, the Iran Students' News Agency (ISNA) reported on December 27. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi informed the organization's member states about the increased activity on December 26. An international deal from 2015 limits Iran to only 4 percent enrichment, but Iran began violating the terms in 2018 after the United States pulled out of the deal.

Russia-Israel: With Gaza War, A Complicated Relationship Gets More Complicated

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow in January 2020.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow in January 2020.

Less than three weeks after Hamas's brutal attack on Israel, leaders of the radical group -- designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and EU -- showed up in Moscow for talks with Russian officials.

For many in the West, not least in Israel itself, the Hamas delegation's visit was a pointed thumb in the eye of the relatives of the victims, most of them civilians, and of a reeling government. For close watchers of Russian policy, however, it wasn't very surprising, a reflection of Moscow's knotty approach to the messy snarl of Middle East politics.

And then there's Russia's own troubled history with anti-Semitism, which burst into the open on October 29 in the North Caucasus city of Makhachkala, where a violent mob tried to attack an airliner arriving from Tel Aviv, seeking out Jewish passengers.

Never great, the Kremlin's relations with Israel now stand to get even more complicated in the wake of the October 7 attack and the unfolding Israeli ground war in Gaza, where the death toll among Palestinian civilians continues to rise.

It's unlikely that the mob violence at the Makhachkala airport was state orchestrated, says Ian Lesser, executive director of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund and an expert on European and Middle Eastern security affairs. "That said, it's clearly showed there's a reservoir of deep ill-will and anti-Semitism in Russia, especially in those regions that are majority Muslim, though not just, and maybe right now Russia finds it convenient to allow a bit of that," he said.

"Anti-Semitism was never gone in Russia," said Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Russia's policy toward the Middle East. "It always sort of periodically reared its ugly head. It's been buried underneath the surface, but it's not the first time Russia has seen an outburst of anti-Semitic activity, and not just in this region."

Added to the wider context of roiling Middle East, what it means is that Russia's ties with Israel are changing in what may be a dramatic fashion.

"Israel has a complicated relationship with Russia. That's not a secret and it's not new," said Eylon Levy, a spokesman for the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, Israel's divisive and longest-serving prime minister, has cultivated closer ties with Vladimir Putin, Russia's longest-serving president -- and Putin has courted Israel in his efforts to increase Russia's regional clout. In his 2022 memoir, Netanyahu praised Putin's intellect, and thanked him for his policies in support of Jews.

But those relations have been vexed by Moscow's growing economic and military ties with countries like Iran, which has vowed to destroy Israel, and Syria, which is known to harbor and facilitate groups that are hostile to Israel.

In Syria, Russia has a naval port and other military infrastructure that it has used not only to bolster Bashar al-Assad's regime but also to maintain a naval presence in the Mediterranean and badger U.S. forces that are deployed in northeastern Syria, fighting alongside Kurdish militias.

Israel and Russia have managed to avoid conflict even as Israel's air forces have routinely targeted Syrian sites, including Damascus's airport, where weapons shipments and other supplies for the Iranian-backed Hizballah militia have been known to transit.

On October 30, Israeli warplanes bombed a Syrian base in the southern Daraa Province. And days earlier, Israeli jets struck an ammunition depot at another Syrian base, where Hizballah fighters and officers reported to be Iranian were working alongside Syrian troops.

"For many years, Israel had a mechanism of coordinating with the Russian military presence inside Syria as we attack targets inside that country, Iran trying to send advanced weapons to terrorists in the north. And it's important not to get our wires crossed," Levy said.

'On The Israeli Side, I Think This Will Not Go Without Notice'

Moscow's relationship with Tehran is even more problematic to Israel.

Russia has played a key role in helping Iran develop its nuclear capabilities, a lucrative source of revenue for the state-run atomic-energy corporation Rosatom. Both Moscow and Tehran say the efforts have been geared solely at peaceful uses of nuclear power -- electricity generation -- though that hasn't allayed Israel's fear, nor that of some in the United States.

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine, however, fundamentally changed the relationship, the European Council for Foreign Relations said in a report published in September. "The two countries have increased their efforts to jointly resist Western sanctions and political isolation. Iran also continues to expand its nuclear program at alarming levels, with no opposition from Moscow," the report's authors, Ellie Geranmayeh and Nicole Grajewski, wrote.

"Tehran's military contribution to Russia's war effort has made an enormous difference to Russia's ability to persevere in a difficult conflict. Iran, once a secondary player, is now one of Russia's most significant collaborators in the war in Ukraine," they added.

Above all, Russia has leaned heavily on Iran to expand its drone capabilities, now deploying thousands of kamikaze or surveillance drones to target Ukrainian forces, something Ukraine's top commander nodded to in an essay published last week in The Economist.

Unconfirmed Western intelligence reports that Hizballah could receive Russian antiaircraft systems add further fuel to the fire.

None of this has gone unnoticed in Israel.

"Over the last few years, we've been deeply concerned by what Iran has been supplying to Russia, for example, we have evidence that Iranian drones have been used to perpetrate atrocities on the innocent people of Ukraine, and that is a relationship that is clearly of very deep concern to us," Levy told RFE/RL.

Still, Israel has been restrained in its criticism of Russia over the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and has resisted sending weaponry or critical equipment to help Ukrainian forces.

To what extent the Daghestan airport incident reflects broader societal problems or negative attitudes toward Jews is unclear. But there has been an uptick in anti-Semitic rhetoric from Russian politicians in recent years, including some from Putin himself.

Russian authorities last year moved to shutter the Russian operations of the Jewish Agency, an official Israeli organization that helps Jews in Russia, and around the former Soviet Union, emigrate to the United States.

Some Israelis saw the shutdown as punishment for Israel's stance on the Ukraine war and for criticism by then-Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

And Then There's Hamas

The Palestinian militant group -- designated a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union -- has sent several delegations to Moscow over the years, including days after the October 7 attack on Israel as well as before that, in March.

The March meeting, as described in a Russian Foreign Ministry statement, touched on Russia's "unchanged position in support of a just solution to the Palestinian problem."

And Moscow has declined to designate Hamas a terrorist group.

For its part, Israel condemned Moscow for hosting the Hamas delegation and for a separate visit from an Iranian deputy foreign minister.

"The rapprochement with Hamas is consistent with a historical pattern," Milan Czerny and Dan Storyev wrote in an analysis for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "During the Cold War, Moscow armed and otherwise supported Palestinian militants, including those engaged in terrorism, continuing to do so even at the height of détente."

Still, they said, Russia was unlikely to qualitatively increase its support for Hamas beyond mere rhetoric. "The reality is that, for Moscow, the crisis in the Middle East is an opportunity to pitch itself to the region and the wider Global South as a diplomatic partner," they said.

After Hamas's attack on Israel, Putin used his first public statement on the incident to lace into the United States, blaming Washington and asserting the attack was a "vivid example" of U.S. policy failures in the Middle East.

"I can only imagine that relations with Israel are going to worsen, because...as much as Russia may have had a certain ambiguity, ambivalence in its relationship with Israel in the past, and wish to preserve that relationship for many reasons...the highly symbolic nature of this event, plus this crisis in Gaza, I think it's likely to be seen in Moscow as an opportunity to be exploited," Lesser said.

"On the Israeli side, I think this will not go without notice," he added.

"I think it has not been a cardinal break" in Russian-Israeli relations, Borshchevskaya told RFE/RL. "But there certainly has been a strain with far more intense criticism coming out of the Russian government than in the past, specifically against Israel's military actions in Gaza, and also Israel's air strikes in Syria.

"So what I think what we need to look for is: to what extent, how is Russia going to maintain a semblance of balance between relations with Israel and Hamas?" she said.

The wider question, experts say, is whether Russia will benefit from the turmoil in the Middle East, for example, by drawing attention away from the Kremlin's No. 1 foreign policy priority now: the war in Ukraine.

"The present situation creates challenges for Russia. I agree that there are challenges for Russia as well, but the benefits are greater," Borshchevskaya said. "I think Russia benefits precisely from chaos. And they are going to use the situation of chaos to further escalate with the United States and the West overall, whether directly or through proxies."

"So, I tend to be of a view that the benefits outweigh the costs and risks" for Moscow, she said.

The turmoil is "an unmitigated positive from the point of view of Moscow," Lesser said.

"There are very few negatives as far as Russia is concerned," he said. "Now, obviously, if the conflict were to escalate into a broader war in the Middle East, perhaps involving Iran and the United States, that would begin to raise issues that may be problematic even for Russia."

Iran Has Reasons To Avoid Selling Missiles To Russia After Sanctions Expire

A short-range ballistic missile is test-launched by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
A short-range ballistic missile is test-launched by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

With the expiration of UN sanctions designed to thwart Iran's development of ballistic missiles, both Tehran and ally Russia have said there is nothing standing in the way of them trading such technology.

The claims have led to concerns that Moscow and Tehran could try to expand their existing arms dealing to include more advanced weaponry, know-how, and technology that could boost both Russia's war effort in Ukraine and Iran's ballistic-missile and drone programs.

But while observers do not discount the possibility that Iran could try to sell previously barred weapons -- chiefly, powerful short-range ballistic missiles -- to Russia, they express skepticism Tehran will follow through.

Among the reasons, they say, are Tehran's need to maintain its own military stockpiles amid increased conflict in the Middle East, the desire to be seen as a compliant and legitimate arms trader by the international community, and the continuation of an already existing strategy of supporting the manufacture of such weaponry in other countries, including Russia.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, told RFE/RL that Iran's suggestion that it is no longer subject to UN sanctions limiting its missile program is more "political, rather than technical" as it seeks to "normalize" its ability to conduct military trades and transfers.

"The actual impact of the expiry of the UN Security Council restrictions on Iran's missile program, in terms of its impact on Iran's ability to develop its missile program, is rather limited," Azizi said. "Because all these years we witnessed that, despite those restrictions being in place, Iran managed to develop not only its missile program, but also its drone program, its military capabilities, to an unprecedented level."

Azizi notes that Iran achieved this in part due to technical and scientific cooperation with other partners, mainly North Korea but also with Russia and Moscow's allies.

Iran set up a manufacturing facility for reconnaissance and combat drones in Tajikistan and Belarus is reportedly seeking to establish a factory to produce the Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drone believed to be used extensively by Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Western officials have also revealed the existence of a drone facility being built in Russia with Iran's assistance that would allow Moscow to build domestic versions of Iranian drones in huge numbers and could be in operation by early 2024.

With the expiration of the UN sanctions, which were largely regarded as toothless, Azizi says he expects Iran to stick to its policy "of considering its military capabilities as nonnegotiable" in any international negotiations while "continuing to advance its capabilities."

Iran can already boast some of the most sophisticated missiles and drones in the Middle East at a time when Tehran's support of proxies and militant groups in the region is being watched closely as archenemy Israel battles the Iranian-backed Hamas extremist organization, designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and EU.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Iran has widely been accused of delivering cheap but effective kamikaze drones to Moscow. While Iran denies the allegations, saying it only sold drones to Moscow before the war started, U.S. officials have repeatedly accused Tehran of supplying Shahed-136 Iranian drones that Russia has used to destroy civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. There has been evidence of Iranian drones rebranded as Russian Geran-2s being used on the battlefield.

And as the two countries have increased military-technical cooperation, Iran's Defense Ministry has routinely showcased its ballistic, cruise, anti-tank, and air-defense missile systems to Russian officials.

The sanctions, in effect since 2015 and enshrined in UN Resolution 2231, expired on October 18 as part of the moribund Iran nuclear deal with world powers known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The United States withdrew from the deal, which offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Iran's nuclear program, in 2018. As European signatories Britain, France, and Germany tried to keep the pact alive, Iran abandoned some of its commitments, but never withdrew from the JCPOA.

The UN sanctions, which were introduced when the Security Council approved the JCPOA, called on Iran, among other things, "not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons." Under the terms, any countries wishing to engage in related trade with Iran were required to first get approval from the UN Security Council.

In separate statements as the sanctions expired, Iran and Russia were quick to claim that they would no longer be bound by the restrictions, although neither side announced any concrete plans for future cooperation regarding Iran's ballistic-missile program.

Iran's Defense Ministry, for its part, said Tehran regarded the development as an opportunity to "strengthen its defense capabilities." But Azizi said Iran now "sees itself free from restrictions to export military technology and weapons, rather than to import them."

Russia, Azizi said, is also interested in underscoring that "there are no more restrictions or special commitments that Iran needs to observe in its military-technical cooperation when it comes to missiles" so that it can also "potentially increase the potential for Iran to send missiles to Russia."

Iran's previous export of Shahed-136 drones to Russia could be explained in part because they "arguably" fell under the UN's classification of conventional weapons, according to Jeremy Binnie, Middle East defense specialist at the global intelligence company Janes.

A kamikaze drone alleged to be an Iranian-made Shahed is seen in the sky over Kyiv during a strike.
A kamikaze drone alleged to be an Iranian-made Shahed is seen in the sky over Kyiv during a strike.

"We have not seen any evidence of transfers of Iranian missiles to Russia so far, but it is unclear if this has been because the Iranians did not want to be seen to be so obviously violating UNSCR 2231," Binnie told RFE/RL in written comments.

Now that the UN sanctions have expired, he said, Iran "may now be more willing to overtly provide arms" to Russia, Binnie said.

As for Russia seeking Iranian missiles, Azizi said, "as Ukraine's Western allies increase the level of their military support for Ukraine, there might be a moment that the Russian leaders decide [to import Iranian missiles because] it's not going to make any difference."

Whether Iran would actually part with such weaponry is another question, particularly considering the current war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the prospect of direct Iranian involvement in that conflict.

"Another consideration for the Iranians is maintaining their own military capabilities, which would be undermined by transferring significant numbers of missiles to Russia," Binnie said. "The uncertain situation in the Middle East right now is likely to increase Iranian unwillingness to supply weapons to Russia that they feel should be retained at home or supplied to allied groups in support of its regional goals."

One solution, Binnie said, "might be to replicate what has happened with the Shahed-136s, whereby Iran supplies initial batches, then transfers the technology to Russia so it can build them locally."

He said that while Russia had a sophisticated missile production capability of its own, "the Iranians would be teaching them how to make cheaper missiles using supply chains that circumnavigate Western sanctions."

The United States and the European Union moved quickly to impose new obstacles as the UN sanctions -- intended to blunt Iran's ballistic-missile program, and by extension its possible acquisition of nuclear weapons and delivery systems -- expired.

In September, Britain, France, and Germany announced that they would maintain their existing sanctions related to Iran's controversial nuclear program, which Tehran claims is for civilian purposes only, and its development of ballistic missiles.

The United States on October 18, the same day that the UN sanctions expired, announced new sanctions targeting individuals and companies in Iran and Russia, among other countries, in an effort to penalize Iran's efforts to buy or sell technology or equipment related to its missile and drone programs.

U.S. Imposes New Sanctions On Support Network For Iran's Missile, Drone Programs

The sanctions were a sign that Iran's missile program will remain restricted after the expiration of UN Security Council sanctions on October 18. (file photo)
The sanctions were a sign that Iran's missile program will remain restricted after the expiration of UN Security Council sanctions on October 18. (file photo)

The U.S. Treasury Department on October 18 announced new sanctions on 11 individuals, eight entities, and one vessel that the United States says have enabled Iran's "destabilizing ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) programs."

The individuals, entities, and the vessel designated by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) are based in Iran, Hong Kong, China, and Venezuela, the department said in a news release.

“The persons designated today have materially supported Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL), or their subordinates in the production and proliferation of missiles and UAVs,” the Treasury Department said.

Iran’s “reckless choice to continue its proliferation of destructive UAVs and other weapons prolongs numerous conflicts in regions around the world," Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson added in the news release.

The sanctions, which freeze any assets held in U.S. jurisdiction and bar people in the U.S. from dealing with them, were a sign that Iran's missile program will remain restricted after the expiration of UN Security Council sanctions on October 18.

The expiration of the sanctions falls under a sunset clause of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which gave Tehran relief from sanctions in exchange for limiting its nuclear program. Former U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned that deal in 2018 and restored U.S. on Iran sanctions. Efforts to revive it have failed.

Russia said on October 17 that after expiration of the sanctions imposed in the nuclear pact the transfers of missile technology to Iran would no longer needed Security Council approval. But Russia did not say whether it planned to support Tehran's missile development.

In light of the expiry of the UN’s restrictions on Iran’s missile-related activities, the State Department on October 18 published a joint statement related to countering Iranian missile-related activities.

The 45 countries that signed the statement have committed to countering Iranian missile-related activities through the so-called Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a program designed to prevent shipments of weapons of mass destruction.

The countries that endorsed the PSI said they reaffirmed their commitment “to take all necessary measures to prevent the supply, sale, or transfer of ballistic missile-related items, materials, equipment, goods, and technology, to protect peace and stability in the region.”

The statement said the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems continues to pose a significant threat to international security.

“In this environment, Iran’s missile program remains one of the greatest challenges to international nonproliferation efforts,” it said.

The U.S. effort to limit Iran's missile and drone programs comes amid renewed U.S. criticism of Tehran for backing Hamas, which on October 7 carried out a rampage against communities in southern Israel in which at least 1,300 people died and is designated a terrorist organization by the EU and the United States.

U.S. officials have said they do not have evidence tying Iran to ordering or planning the attacks but have said Tehran is complicit because of its long-term support for Hamas.

With reporting by Reuters

EU To Maintain Sanctions On Iran Over Its Nuclear Program

(file photo)
(file photo)

The European Union said on October 17 that it was maintaining sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program beyond a deadline in a landmark nuclear deal. Under the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and major powers, Tehran agreed to restrain its nuclear program in return for relief from Western sanctions. But the accord began unravelling in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from it and began reimposing sanctions. Iran retaliated by dropping some of its obligations under the agreement. The EU sanctions remaining in place include blacklisting missile manufacturers and affiliates of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

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