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China In Eurasia

(Left to right) Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pose for a photo at the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa.
(Left to right) Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pose for a photo at the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts leaders for the 16th annual BRICS summit, he's looking to signal to the West that Moscow is not isolated on the world stage.

Putin will drive that message home in Kazan from October 22-24 as he positions the BRICS grouping of countries as a counterweight to the West in global politics and trade through a newly expanded version of the bloc sometimes referred to as BRICS+ that includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as previous members Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

"BRICS once again has fresh air coming into its lungs, in part because the Western-led order and its organizations are experiencing disarray," Carlos Solar, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, told RFE/RL. "The larger idea is that the world is changing and what happens next for international banking, finance, and law could define which regions of the world will be the most important in the decades to come."

This year's summit could also set the stage for further expansion, and Putin has also invited more than two dozen other countries that have applied for or are considering membership in the growing club that includes Azerbaijan, Belarus, Turkey, and Mongolia.

He will also have bilateral meetings with other visiting heads of state in Kazan, including Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who is also looking to grow BRICS as part of Beijing's wider strategy to position itself as a leader for the developing countries in the so-called Global South.

"Putin [has] explicitly said that the BRICS speaks for the Global South. That's an argument that China has also been making," Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFE/RL.

"For China, as for Russia, the hope is that BRICS+ will be a vehicle to challenge the Western-dominated international order and particularly the dominance of the United States."

What Is BRICS and Why Does It Matter?

In 2006, Brazil, Russia, India, and China created the BRIC group, which expanded into BRICS in 2010 with the addition of South Africa.

The group was designed to bring together the world's most-important developing countries to form an alternative to the political and economic power of the wealthier nations of North America and Western Europe.

BRICS members have from the start argued that Western countries dominate important global bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which lend money to governments, and that a counterweight to give a louder voice to emerging economies is needed.

Russian President Putin attends the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa via video link from Moscow.
Russian President Putin attends the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa via video link from Moscow.

In 2014, BRICS set up a New Development Bank to lend money to boost infrastructure and, in January, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E. were invited to become members.

But a Saudi minister said shortly afterward that Riyadh had not officially joined the group.

Argentina was also invited to join, but President Javier Milei pulled out in December 2023 shortly after taking office.

Still, the newly expanded group has a combined population of about 3.5 billion -- 45 percent of the world's inhabitants -- and their economies are worth around 26 percent of the world economy.

Should Saudi Arabia become a member, BRICS members would also produce roughly 44 percent of the globe's crude oil.

Why Do Countries Want To Join BRICS?

The globally scattered members of BRICS have sometimes made it an awkward grouping, but it is growing despite geopolitical disruptions like Russia's war in Ukraine and an intensifying rivalry between China and the United States.

As Solar explains, interest in joining BRICS has only grown, with many developing countries seeing the grouping as a useful vehicle to search for a geopolitical balance in the years ahead.

"You have many countries in the BRICS -- like China, Russia, India, and Brazil -- with global ambitions," he said. "But for other countries joining or applying to join, it's about having different options and not putting all their eggs into one basket."

He said this can even be seen with countries like Brazil and India, who are key members of BRICS but also maintain strong ties and membership in Western-led groupings and political bodies.

A general view of delegates attending the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa
A general view of delegates attending the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa

Financial coordination is a top issue for the group as leaders look to lessen the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade, with Brazil and Russia even suggesting the creation of a BRICS currency.

BRICS nations have also looked to develop more trade links within the bloc, closer coordination between their banks, and better harmonization of their tax and customs procedures.

While talks about creating a global reserve currency have so far not progressed, BRICS members have focused on facilitating trade in their local currencies, something that has proved helpful for Russia as it has looked to weather the bite of Western sanctions over its war in Ukraine with expanded trade links to China and India.

"BRICS has been and can be an even bigger lifesaver for the Russian economy as it's looking for new markets," Solar said.

What's At Stake During This Year's Summit?

For Russia, this summit is about showcasing that it is not completely isolated diplomatically and to further initiatives that may undermine the West's dominance.

"For Putin, [this] summit is essentially symbolic -- it is his effort to show the world that despite Western efforts to isolate Russia in the aftermath of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, that Russia still has many friends in the world," Patrick said.

In Kazan, Putin is expected to push negotiations to build an alternative platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions, and Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, will also propose the creation of a BRICS grain-trading exchange as an alternative to Western markets where international prices for agricultural commodities are set.

Whether these measures succeed remains to be seen, and Moscow will have to overcome reaching consensus within the grouping as it takes on new members, some of which may not share the Kremlin's explicit ambitions to challenge the West.

While all BRICS members may be united in the "belief that the current structures that govern the international order and the global economy are unfairly weighted toward the Western world," Patrick says, there are still divisions between countries like China, Iran, and Russia that want to challenge and unseat the current order and others who want to use the grouping as a way to reform it.

"BRICS represents a challenge to the Western-dominated order," Patrick said. "[But it's] more important symbolically than geopolitically at this stage."

Signs mark the arrival of Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang in Islamabad as the city is put under security lockdown to host a meeting for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Signs mark the arrival of Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang in Islamabad as the city is put under security lockdown to host a meeting for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Lockdown In Islamabad

Following the killing of two Chinese engineers and shooting deaths of 21 miners, Pakistan's capital was put under security lockdown as Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang landed in Islamabad for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting.

Here's why that's important.

Finding Perspective: Li's visit is the first by a Chinese premier to Pakistan in 11 years, and he was received by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at the airport.

The SCO meeting with nine of the bloc's full member states kicked off on October 15 and will last two days.

Unlike the leaders summit that occurred back in July in Kazakhstan, this current gathering in Islamabad is a heads-of-government meeting that features the prime ministers of SCO members Belarus, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as the vice president of Iran.

Worried about security, the Pakistani government announced a three-day public holiday in Islamabad, with schools and businesses shut and large contingents of police and paramilitary forces deployed across the city.

Pakistani authorities have also sought to curb all movement of Chinese nationals in the city, citing fears of violence from armed groups.

What To Watch: Tensions were rising in the capital after the main opposition Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf (PTI) party of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan called for a protest on October 15 in the city if the government did not allow Khan's family members, lawyers, and doctors to meet him in prison.

Security tensions have also been inflamed by attacks in the country, including those targeting Chinese citizens in Pakistan.

On October 6, an attack with explosives near Karachi's Jinnah International Airport killed two Chinese nationals. The Balochistan Liberation Army, a separatist militant group, claimed responsibility.

Chinese citizens working in Pakistan have become targets for militant groups in the country and a point of growing tensions between Beijing and Islamabad.

Another attack in northwest Pakistan killed five Chinese engineers in March and a high-profile 2021 suicide bombing killed nine Chinese engineers.

Why It Matters: The attacks on Chinese nationals are likely to figure in the talks as Li and Sharif lead their respective delegations to discuss economic and trade ties and cooperation under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $65 billion infrastructure investment under China's Belt and Road Initiative.

CPEC has faced setbacks on the ground in recent years amid funding disagreements, security concerns for Chinese workers, and corruption scandals.

Sharif is hoping to use the SCO meeting and Li's trip, which also includes a bilateral visit, to reignite Chinese interest in CPEC and calm some of Beijing's lingering security concerns.

Sharif's office said he and Li already discussed economic and trade ties and cooperation during a meeting on October 14.

They both also already virtually inaugurated the CPEC-funded Gwadar International Airport in Balochistan Province in a ceremony telecast live by Pakistan's state-run TV.

Sharif described the airport as a gift from Beijing and the people of China to Pakistan.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Tsai Visits Europe

Taiwan's ex-President Tsai Ing-wen spoke in Prague on October 14 and said the self-ruling island is on the front line of defending democracy from assaults by authoritarian countries.

The Details: The comments came at the Forum 2000 conference, where Tsai shook hands with Czech President Petr Pavel.

The Czech Republic, like most countries, has no official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but the two sides have moved closer as Beijing ratchets up military threats against the island and Taipei seeks new friends in Eastern and Central Europe.

Pavel and Tsai spoke briefly at the opening of the conference, and the former Taiwanese leader sat through an opening speech by Pavel and a panel he was part of.

Pavel's office said he did not plan a meeting with Tsai, and the former Taiwanese president later also met with the heads of both chambers of the Czech parliament.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Beijing firmly opposed the visit to Prague.

Tsai will carry on to Brussels where she is slated to meet with officials.

She was also set to travel to Britain, but the Guardian reported that the UK Foreign Office asked for Tsai's visit to be postponed so as not to anger China ahead of a trip by Foreign Minister David Lammy.

2. Laying BRICS

Ahead of Russia hosting the BRICS summit next week, the Kremlin walked back its comments describing Saudi Arabia as a member of the BRICS bloc of countries.

What It Means: Saudi Arabia has been invited to join BRICS but has not yet formally done so.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov described it as a BRICS member and said its foreign minister would attend the upcoming October 22-24 summit in the Russian city of Kazan.

But when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked to clarify Riyadh's status in the bloc, he said: "The summit will take place now. We will supply additional information on who will represent Saudi Arabia, whether it will be represented at this summit, and we will draw conclusions from this."

BRICS, which originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, and China, has expanded to include South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

High-level Saudi involvement at the summit would be a diplomatic boost for Moscow, who views the grouping as an important part of its strategy to counter U.S. global influence and defeat Western attempts to isolate it with sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

"Russia is not isolated. In the modern world, it is very difficult to isolate any country, especially a state like the Russian Federation," Peskov said.

3. A Stop In Belgrade

In the latest sign of close cooperation between China and Serbia, Li Xiaoxin, a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and director of the State Commission for Public Sector Reform, arrived in Belgrade on October 14, RFE/RL's Balkan Service reports.

What You Need To Know: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who met with Li, said Serbia is extremely proud of its "excellent relations, ironclad friendship, and overall cooperation with China." Vucic posted a photo of the meeting on Instagram, saying he and Li discussed economic cooperation between Serbia and China.

This cooperation is "dynamically developing" through numerous infrastructure and energy projects and "increasingly intense" investment cooperation, especially in mining and the automobile industry, Vucic said.

In addition to meetings with officials in Belgrade, members of the Chinese delegation are meeting with the leadership of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

The SNS said on October 14 that the visit comes after the establishment of cooperation between Serbia and China and after close party cooperation between SNS and the Chinese Communist Party.

Across The Supercontinent

Yuan Shortage: Chinese yuan-denominated loans have been a lifeline for some Russian companies since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But as The Bell reports, there isn't enough Chinese currency to go around and Russia is facing a yuan liquidity crisis.

Another China-Uzbekistan Deal: Uzbekistan's Senate ratified a government agreement with China on the mutual protection of classified information. The law, approved during a Senate meeting, has been sent to the president for final signing.

Ukraine Lessons For Taiwan: After witnessing the crucial utility of reliable networks in conflicts like Ukraine, Taiwan's government is taking steps in case a Chinese attack cripples the island's communications.

Taipei's main telecoms company, Chunghwa, and a British-European company, Eutelsat OneWeb, are expected to help bring Low Earth Orbit satellite Internet service by the end of the month.

Finland Goes East: Finnish President Alexander Stubb will make a state visit to China on October 28-31.

According to the press release, the Finnish president will discuss bilateral ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the Ukraine war, and other international issues.

One Thing To Watch

Amid intensifying rhetoric and debate over Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and Europe's green transition, BMW CEO Oliver Zipse said Europe must cancel plans to ban new fossil fuel-emitting cars starting in 2035 in order to reduce reliance on Chinese-made batteries.

In March 2023, EU countries approved a landmark law that would require all new cars to have zero CO2 emissions from 2035, effectively banning diesel and petrol vehicles, and 55 percent lower CO2 emissions from 2030, compared to 2021 levels.

But executives like Zipse have long pushed for regulators to permit various technologies -- including alternative fuels like e-fuels or biofuels and hydrogen fuel cell cars -- and said it will help keep European companies competitive.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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About The Newsletter

In recent years, it has become impossible to tell the biggest stories shaping Eurasia without considering China’s resurgent influence in local business, politics, security, and culture.

Subscribe to this weekly dispatch in which correspondent Reid Standish builds on the local reporting from RFE/RL’s journalists across Eurasia to give you unique insights into Beijing’s ambitions and challenges.

To subscribe, click here.

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