China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Xi's Upside And Downside

Former President Donald Trump has declared victory in the U.S. election against Vice President Kamala Harris.

It's an outcome that will have implications far beyond the United States, so here's what another Trump administration could look like for China.

Finding Perspective: Beijing and Washington are the world's two largest economies and another Trump term will have a major impact on where the relationship between the two rival powers goes.

There is something of a consensus in Washington when it comes to Beijing, with a focus on constraining China's continued rise on the world stage.

Trump's previous term saw a trade war, with him slapping tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods and launching a global campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.

Four years of President Joe Biden, meanwhile, saw him adopt a more measured tone than Trump, but his administration also targeted Chinese tech industries with investment and export controls, as well as tariffs on items like Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).

Despite that overlap, there are still important differences in the short and long term for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The View On Trump: If Harris represented a more predictable approach and a more traditional U.S. foreign policy, Trump is the ultimate wild card for Beijing.

The former president has threatened upwards of 60 percent tariffs on all imports from China and has spoken openly of his desire to ramp up another trade war. None of that is good for Beijing as it grapples with a slowing economy and weighs how to use a potential fiscal stimulus.

But that short-term pain comes with potential long-term upside for Xi.

Chinese analysts have sometimes seen Trump's divisiveness at home and his "America First" brand of foreign policy as a net gain for Beijing as it tries to overtake Washington on the global stage.

That could look more appealing on the horizon if Trump, who has questioned traditional U.S. alliances, strains relations with U.S. partners in Europe and Asia and leaves diplomatic openings for Beijing.

Analysts saw Harris as looking to continue Biden's emphasis on building a network of allies and partners to constrain China, something that Philip Gordon, her national-security adviser, said in May, before Biden dropped out of the race, was an American advantage against Beijing and other potential U.S. adversaries.

"We're in a favorable position to win this geopolitical competition, to the degree it's Russia and China and other autocracies aligning against us.... It's why the president and the vice president have invested so much time in those alliances."

Yes, But: Trump has said that he wants to quickly push for the end of the war in Ukraine and has said that Taiwan isn't paying Washington enough money for the U.S. government's support, but the upside for Beijing isn't so straightforward.

While Trump bringing an end to the war in Ukraine -- if possible -- could embolden Beijing to act on Taiwan in the future, it could also free up Washington to devote more resources to the Indo-Pacific to more directly challenge China.

Why It Matters: Regardless of who would have won the U.S. election, Beijing expected little improvement in its tense ties with Washington.

Trump's victory now comes at a pivotal time for both countries, especially as Xi looks to turn China into an alternative center of global power.

Xi believes that the West -- and particularly the United States -- is in decline, and he remarked to Russian President Vladimir Putin last year that we are now living in a period of great historical change the likes of which we have "not seen in 100 years."

Kevin Rudd, Australia's ambassador to Washington who has met Xi several times, says that these views reflect how Chinese policymakers see the United States' trajectory and that Xi "sees the forces of history moving decisively in China's direction."

In his second term, Trump will be in a pivotal position to prove Xi right or wrong.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Kazakhstan Inks Billions In New Deals

Kazakhstan signed eight commercial agreements worth $2.5 billion with Chinese companies on November 4.

The Details: The agreements were signed during a visit to Shanghai by Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov.

The agreements support a broader strategy by Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev and Xi to double trade turnover, which reached a record $41 billion last year, the Kazakh prime minister's press service said in a statement.

At an investment roundtable, Bektenov emphasized the potential for joint projects and industrial cooperation. Major Chinese firms also outlined plans to enhance operations in Kazakhstan, including energy initiatives and localized vehicle production.

There are already around 5,000 joint ventures between the two countries.

2. Slovakia's Fico Goes To Beijing

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Beijing for a multiday state visit where he signed a strategic partnership agreement and backed Chinese diplomacy around the war in Ukraine.

What You Need To Know: Fico met with Xi on November 1 and said afterward that China's position on the war in Ukraine "is fair, objective, and constructive" and that Bratislava was ready to join a proposal promoted by Brazil and China to resolve the war.

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejecting the plan, Fico said Slovakia was willing to join other countries that China says have positively received it "and work with China to contribute to promoting a political solution to the crisis," according to a Chinese government statement.

Fico, who has criticized EU policies on Ukraine and has opposed sanctions on Russia, said Slovakia was "very keen on China's diplomatic efforts dedicated to regulating the conflict in Ukraine and have exchanged our attitudes on this fundamental issue."

3. More China-Afghan Deals

The Taliban's embassy in Beijing has announced the inauguration and operational launch of a new freight railway line connecting China and Afghanistan.

What It Means: It's another headline pointing toward warming ties between Beijing and the Taliban. Last week, China announced that it will offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its vast construction, energy, and consumer sectors.

But the devil is in the details. This rail line is not a direct connection from China to Afghanistan and instead crosses through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan before stopping in northern Afghanistan.

According to the statement, the first journey of the freight train to the Hairatan port has commenced, with an initial shipment of 50 containers expected to reach its destination within 20 days of its departure.

As with the ground-breaking ceremony for the giant Mes Aynak copper mine in July, the moves are important optics for a cash-trapped and largely isolated Taliban, but are likely to take years to truly develop into something concrete.

Beijing still has lingering security questions about Afghanistan and is hesitant about having too many direct connections between it and China.

A similar dynamic unfolded earlier this year when the Taliban announced a new road through the Wakhan Corridor leading to the border with China.

Despite the announcement of the completion of the project, however, a road link with China remains far from suitable for meaningful cross-border trade and there is little Chinese custom infrastructure at the border.

Across The Supercontinent

From Taipei to Kyiv via Vilnius: Taiwan signed an agreement with Lithuania on October 30 to donate $5 million to recovery efforts in Ukraine.

The funds will go to education, veteran rehabilitation, and safety training in explosives and hazardous materials.

Railway Collapse: The Serbian minister of construction, transport, and infrastructure resigned on November 5 following the collapse of a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station that killed 14 people and left three injured, RFE/RL's Balkan Service reports.

Protests continue in Serbia and the role of Chinese and Hungarian companies involved in the construction of the station have also been in the spotlight. Serbian officials have said that while a Chinese consortium was involved in the station, it did not work on the roof that later collapsed.

Still, with the construction contracts kept secret -- a clause often requested by Chinese firms -- calls for greater transparency around the project are growing.

Finland's New Tightrope: Finnish President Alexander Stubb wrapped up a state visit to China last week where he met with Xi.

Stubb told Xi that North Korean activities with Russia were an escalation and provocation in a message delivered on behalf of NATO and the European Union.

One Thing To Watch

A survey conducted ahead of the U.S. election by pollsters at National Taiwan University in Taipei found that 56 percent of Taiwanese preferred Harris as the next U.S. president compared to only 16 percent for Trump. Twenty-three percent of those polled said they didn't have an opinion.

Winning over Trump -- who has spoken about reevaluating some tenets of Washington's traditional line towards Taiwan -- will be key for the self-governing island.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

China's Awkward Triangle

After weeks of headlines about Pyongyang’s decision to dispatch thousands of troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, NATO and the Pentagon said this week that North Korean soldiers are in Kursk, the Russian region partly controlled by Ukrainian troops.

Here’s why that’s important for China.

Finding Perspective: The Pentagon said North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia to train and fight in the Ukraine war within “the next several weeks,” while NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed after a meeting with South Korea’s top intelligence officials that some troops were already in Kursk. The Pentagon also added that a “small number” were already there.

"The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security," Rutte told reporters in Brussels on October 28.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon said that the United States will not impose new limits on Ukraine's use of American weapons if North Korea joins Russia's war.

That came after White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said last week that if North Korean troops "do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they're fair game."

North Korean officials have not commented on the reports, which have also been echoed by Kyiv and Seoul, and the Kremlin initially dismissed reports about North Korean troops, but Russian President Vladimir Putin also did not deny their deployment when asked at last week’s BRICS summit.

The View From Beijing: The reports signal deepening military ties that have been building for the last year between Russia and North Korea -- a development that has been met with a muted response from China, with the Foreign Ministry saying last week that it was “not aware of the relevant situation."

Beijing has long been Pyongyang's most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un. China and North Korea's mutual aid and cooperation treaty from 1961 is the only existing defense treaty that China has with any country.

But Beijing has also been frustrated with Pyongyang and the instability it brings, particularly with its nuclear weapons program and threats to annihilate South Korea.

Now Pyongyang is injecting that same style of unpredictability into Ukraine, where the deployment of its troops risks a wider escalation that could start to play out in both Europe and Asia.

Why It Matters: North Korea’s deployment of troops represents a tough balancing act for China.

While China is supporting Russia indirectly in its war effort, North Korea’s involvement is a wild card and something of a strategic headache for Beijing.

North Korea’s closer relationship with Moscow could spell less Chinese influence over Pyongyang, and the involvement of North Korean troops would further strengthen Putin’s partnership with Kim, who signed a pact with the Russian leader in June.

Adding thousands of North Korean soldiers to the Ukraine war could also stoke geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and Australia.

South Korea said that it’s now considering upgrading its support for Ukraine from nonlethal aid to defensive and perhaps even offensive weapons.

None of that is good news for Beijing. Not only does the development weaken its narrative that China is a force for peace in contrast to the United States, but it also undermines its talking point that Western countries should stay out of Asian defense issues now that the Indo-Pacific is inserting itself into Europe’s security conversation.

Adding to the list of potential concerns for China is the question of what Moscow has agreed to do in return for added troops.

One obvious area could be Russian help in improving North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, something that could accelerate an arms race in the region.

But some analysts believe that Beijing might be tolerating North Korean arms shipments and personnel to Russia to ease pressure on providing direct military assistance itself.

In this reading, China might now be driving on much more unstable terrain but is still firmly in the driver’s seat. Both Moscow and Pyongyang will still prioritize their ties with Beijing over the other, and should China want to truly hit the brake pedal on where North Korea and Russia are going, it would still have leverage to do so.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Afghanistan Gets Tariff-Free Access

China will offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its vast construction, energy, and consumer sectors, Beijing's envoy to Afghanistan said on October 24.

The Details: Impoverished and resource-rich Afghanistan remains diplomatically isolated under the Taliban and the regime in Kabul is looking to build up access to any market it can.

China, the world’s second-largest economy and which shares a small border with Afghanistan, is an obvious choice.

Beijing has sought to develop its ties with the Taliban since the militia took control of Afghanistan in 2021, but like all governments it has refrained from formally recognizing the group as the legitimate government of the country.

China’s main interests in Afghanistan are security concerns and gaining access to the country’s resource wealth.

Selling Afghanistan's lithium, copper, and iron deposits to China would help the Taliban prop up the economy, but apart from a ground-breaking ceremony and some touted memorandums, things remain at a standstill.

In terms of trade, Afghanistan exported $64 million worth of goods to China in 2023 and, according to Chinese customs data, close to 90 percent of that was shelled pine nuts.

2. The World Uyghur Congress Meets In Bosnia-Herzegovina

The World Uyghur Congress (WUC) just wrapped up its triennial meeting in Sarajevo on October 27, but ahead of the conference, the organization said it faced pressure and harassment from Chinese authorities aimed at derailing the gathering.

What You Need To Know: Zumretay Arkin, the director of global advocacy at the WUC, told my colleague Predrag Zvijerac during an interview ahead of the three-day meeting that the organization has dealt with hacking attacks, physical threats against members and their families, and even attempts to prevent the Sarajevo assembly from taking place.

The Germany-based WUC consists mainly of Uyghurs living in exile and advocates for the rights of those who remain in China.

Attempts by Chinese officials to disrupt WUC gatherings are also not unprecedented.

Ahead of the organization's last general assembly in Prague in 2021, the Marriott hotel in the Czech capital declined to host the conference, citing "political neutrality," according to e-mails obtained by Axios.

3. What To Expect From Kaja Kallas

Kaja Kallas, the EU's incoming foreign policy chief, is poised to open a new chapter in EU-China relations.

Here’s a look ahead at what she aims to do as the former Estonian prime minister prepares to start her term in Brussels.

What It Means: Kallas has called for a tougher Western response to Russia, and that is bleeding over into relations with China thanks to Beijing's increasingly close ties with the Kremlin.

In written comments to MEPs, she referred to China as only a “systemic rival,” as opposed to the official line from Brussels that calls Beijing a combined "partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival,” and said that her “priority in engaging with China will be to safeguard the EU’s geopolitical and economic security.”

Kallas added that "the most pressing challenges here are China's support for Russia" and that “Russia, Iran, North Korea, and partly China” are “malign” actors that are taking “aim at weaponizing interdependencies and exploiting the openness of our societies against us.”

Across The Supercontinent

BRICS In Waiting? BRICS officially welcomed 13 new nations as partner countries during its summit in Russia last week. The new partner countries include Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.

For Kazakhstan, the move is something of a balancing tactic after it declined becoming a full-member. This leaves the door open to becoming a member further down the road, while still keeping some distance as it bides its time about the merits of membership.

Labour’s Outreach: British Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Politico that trade is “where cooperation is possible with China” as the new Labour government looks to step up its engagement with Beijing.

Tweaking Taiwan: Chinese leader Xi Jinping asked U.S. President Joe Biden last year to change the language the United States uses when discussing its position on Taiwanese independence, according to Reuters.

Xi wanted Washington to say "we oppose Taiwan independence," rather than the current version, which is that the United States "does not support" independence for Taiwan. Biden declined to make the change.

One Thing To Watch

China is considering approving around $1.4 trillion in extra debt to be issued in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources.

China's top legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), is looking to approve the fresh fiscal package on the last day of a meeting that will be held from November 4-8.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.