Taiwan Is Watching Ukraine And Trump. Here's What It's Learning.
- By Reid Standish and
- Sashko Shevchenko
TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Just a few days after US President Donald Trump sparred with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a televised spat in the Oval Office, the self-governing island of Taiwan took a different approach to deal with the American leader.
While Zelenskyy left the White House without signing a planned minerals deal and with future US support for Kyiv's defense against Russia hanging in the balance, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of microchips, announced on March 3 a massive $100 billion investment plan in the United States involving new plants, packaging facilities, and a research center.
Standing in the White House, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said customer demand rather than political pressures drove the company to announce the chip investment. But Trump told a news conference the deal meant TSMC would avoid the industry-wide 25 percent tariffs being deployed to bring more manufacturing to the US market.
"Taiwan's main item to offer is chips, and when Trump talks about us, he nearly always talks about chips," Jason Hsu, a former Taiwanese lawmaker and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told RFE/RL. "This is a way to get out in front and keep him close."
While Kyiv has since gone on to mend its ties with Washington, the contrasting episodes highlight the differing approaches taken by Kyiv and Taipei, and how Taiwan is learning from Ukraine's experiences on and off the battlefield.
As China showcases its military dominance and exerts growing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan to submit to Chinese rule, analysts, military planners, and Taiwanese officials who spoke to RFE/RL say that the lessons from the Ukraine war for the island of 23 million people are widespread, ranging from how to prepare a society for conflict to how to –- and how not to –- deal with the US president.
What Is Taiwan Learning From The Ukraine War?
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Taipei has been a vocal supporter of Kyiv, which the Taiwanese government sees as similar to its own geopolitical position where Beijing has long threatened to invade and annex the island if it refused to peacefully accept unification.
For both Ukraine and Taiwan, their first line of support has come from the United States. Diplomatic backing for Kyiv, along with military aid and intelligence cooperation –- which were recently restored following a pause after the Oval Office clash –- has been crucial in giving Ukraine the tools to resist Russia.
Similarly, Taiwan relies on US military and political support. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself against a possible attack by China.
But Trump's recent rhetoric has cast uncertainty over the future of US-Taiwan relations, particularly his repeated accusations of the island "stealing" the US semiconductor industry, a claim that has been disputed, while also saying Taiwan should pay the United States for "protection."
"What happened with Zelenskyy is a reminder of the tightrope that's being walked," said Hsu. "The No. 1 principle that Taiwan needs to recognize is that Trump is a transactional politician who wants to do deals and always wants something in return."
But Taiwanese officials say there are far broader takeaways for the island from the war in Ukraine.
Wu Chih-chung, Taiwan's deputy foreign minister, told RFE/RL that the biggest lesson learned so far from Ukraine is that the island and the wider international community can't "be naive" about Chinese leader Xi Jinping's ambitions for Taiwan the same way many were about Russian President Vladimir Putin in the years leading up his invasion of Ukraine.
Wu says the country's current leadership is following a "not today policy," designed around building up Taiwan's relations with partners, including across Europe, and deterring Beijing by showing that any Chinese military moves would be too costly.
How Is Taiwan Preparing For A Potential Crisis?
Part of that policy is making society more resilient amid Beijing's mounting pressure towards the island, which it regards as a rogue province.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te launched the Whole of Society Defense Resilience Committee in 2024, which is designed to prepare the country to face natural and human-made disasters, including the threat of blockade or invasion by China. This move has coincided with a rise in the number and membership of so-called civil defense organizations in Taiwan that teach everything from first aid to evacuation planning, and in some cases, how to navigate combat.
Those steps to better prepare the island and raise awareness among citizens took a step forward on March 14 when Lai labeled China a "foreign hostile force" and announced ramped-up national security measures in the face of growing threats and a string of spying cases, including in Taiwan's military.
"China has been taking advantage of democratic Taiwan's freedom, diversity, and openness to recruit gangs, the media, commentators, political parties, and even active-duty and retired members of the armed forces and police to carry out actions to divide, destroy, and subvert us from within," Lai said in a televised speech to the nation.
Philip Yu, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council who is a retired rear admiral in the US Navy, told RFE/RL that "among the many lessons that Ukraine can offer Taiwan is the importance of protection of critical infrastructures, along with civil defense preparedness."
While the early days of Moscow's full-scale invasion saw scenes of Russian tanks pushing towards Kyiv, a crisis around Taiwan could come in a variety of forms.
Taiwanese policymakers must contend with deterring an outright invasion of Taiwan, but China could also launch a blockade of the island designed to choke off trade and supplies until it submits to Beijing.
Another scenario would be what security analysts called a quarantine, which means China could restrict air and maritime traffic into Taiwan and tighten its control over the flow of commerce using its coast guard and other law-enforcement forces, rather than its military.
Such a move could lead to difficulties in mobilizing international support for Taiwan and leave the island vulnerable before a response could be launched.
"As an island nation reliant on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy needs, Taiwan faces acute risks and vulnerabilities," Yu said.
What Is Taiwan's Strategy For Trump?
Trump has yet to detail his policy toward Taiwan and has said he won't state whether he would send US forces to defend Taiwan in a crisis or not.
On the campaign trail, Trump also called for Taiwan to spend more on its own defense –- even saying it should be spending 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) –- and the island has taken notice.
Taiwan has increased its military spending in recent years and extended the duration of mandatory military service to one year from four months. But military spending currently sits at 2.45 percent of GDP, and Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai said raising the island's defense spending to 10 percent of gross domestic product was infeasible.
Adding to the pressure is that Taiwan's opposition-controlled legislature approved cuts to government spending in January, complicating the path for bigger military-spending increases.
Against that backdrop, Taiwan's government is looking to head off any newfound skepticism out of Washington.
As ways to appeal to Trump's dealmaking, Taipei continues to hint at big-ticket weapons purchase plans, and the possibility of boosting imports of gas from the United States is also being explored. Some researchers have argued that gas, which would require US ships and processing terminals, could offer Taiwan additional protection from Chinese interference.
But Taiwan's strongest card to play may be its strategic semiconductor industry. TSMC, which announced the large deal earlier this month, produces more than 90 percent of the world's advanced semiconductors, which power everything from smartphones and artificial intelligence to weapons.
Few industries are as critical –- or as concentrated –- as semiconductor manufacturing, and TSMC and other Taiwanese chip makers have top US brands like Nvidia as their partners.
The recent $100 billion investment has faced some pushback at home, out of fears that moving more manufacturing to the United States could leave Taiwan vulnerable as its key role as a chipmaker for the global economy is seen by some analysts as a form of protection against a possible Chinese attack.
It's still unclear if TSMC will be making its most advanced chips in the United States or not, but Hsu, the former lawmaker, says leveraging Taiwan's dominant position is the correct move to make.
"It's give-and-take. It's an important lesson for us to learn," Hsu said. "This is a different America than four years ago, and it's certainly a different world than four years ago. We need to be pragmatic."
