The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari. Here's what I’ve been following during the past week and what I’m watching for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

Iran’s Rasa news agency has rekindled rumors that Mojtaba Khamenei, the influential son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is being groomed as the successor to his elderly father, despite his lack of credentials.

Affiliated with seminaries in the holy Shi’ite city of Qom, the agency used the title of ayatollah to refer to Mojtaba Khamenei. The move has fueled speculation that the younger Khamenei is being promoted ahead of possibly succeeding his 83-year-old father, who underwent prostrate surgery in 2014 amid rumors about his health.

Ayatollah is an honorific title reserved only for high-ranking clerics. Mojtaba Khamenei had previously been referred to as a hojatoleslam, a title that refers to mid-ranking clerics.

Why It Matters: Rasa’s reference to the young Khamenei as an ayatollah comes after a statement last month by opposition figure Mir Hossein Musavi, who warned that the leadership in Iran could become “hereditary.”

“The news of this conspiracy has been heard for 13 years. If they’re not looking into it, why have they not once denied such an intention?” asked Musavi, who has been under house arrest since 2011.

Rumors about Mojtaba Khamenei as a possible successor to his father first emerged during mass anti-government protests following the disputed presidential election in 2009. He became a target of chants by opposition activists during the rallies, with some chanting: "Mojtaba, may you die and not become the supreme leader!" He was rumored to have been involved in the brutal crackdown on protesters that year.

What’s Next: With officials refusing to comment, speculation is likely to grow around the younger Khamenei. Iran’s hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, a Khamenei protege, has also been rumored as a potential successor.

Speculation over Khamenei’s successor is likely to mount due to his age and rumors about his health. The Assembly of Experts, an 88-member chamber of theologians, all male, picks and nominally oversees the work of the country's supreme leader. But it is unclear exactly what actual role the assembly is likely to play in choosing Iran's third supreme leader.

Stories You Might Have Missed

• Iranian women were allowed to attend a national soccer match for the first time in decades. The dozens of women used the occasion on August 25 to pay tribute to a fan who set herself on fire to protest the authorities' ban on female spectators.

Sahar Khodayari self-immolated in September 2019 outside a courthouse where she had been summoned after being arrested for trying to enter Azadi Stadium dressed as a man. Her death caused outrage, intensifying pressure on the authorities to allow women into soccer stadiums. Since the incident, women have been permitted to attend several matches.

• Iranian officials have dragged their feet for over a year in indirect negotiations with the United States to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. During that time, Tehran has told Iranians that the country can survive without a nuclear agreement.

But the rhetoric has changed in recent weeks as Iran and the United States are on the cusp of agreeing to restore the deal. Observers say Iranian officials appear to have concluded that they need a revived nuclear deal to address the country’s economic woes and fend off rising anti-government sentiment and near-daily protests.

Experts also say Iranian officials and state media are trying to portray the potential revival of the nuclear deal as a “political victory” over the West.

What We're Watching

Radio Farda reported that a German national has been in prison in Iran for over a month. Germany's Foreign Ministry confirmed the arrest of the 66-year-old for allegedly taking pictures in "prohibited areas."

Sources told Radio Farda that the German national has spent half of his time in custody in solitary confinement. He is now imprisoned in the general ward of Aran and Bidgol prison near the central city of Kashan, they said. The man reportedly visited several cities as he toured Iran on a motorcycle, including Tehran and Tabriz.

Iranian officials have not commented on the detention.

Why It Matters: Authorities have arrested dozens of foreigners and dual nationals in recent years, often on espionage and security-related charges. There are currently more than a dozen dual nationals and foreigners held in Iran.

Tehran has long been accused of using detained foreign and dual nationals as pawns to gain leverage in its dealings with Western countries. Last month, Iranian media reported the arrest of a Swedish citizen on espionage charges. It came after a Swedish court sentenced a former Iranian official to life in prison for the mass execution of political prisoners in Iran in the 1980s.

The arrest of the German national came as Iran and United States inch closer to an agreement on reviving the 2015 deal over Tehran's nuclear program.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Golnaz Esfandiari

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Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm Mehrdad Mirdamadi, a senior editor and journalist at RFE/RL's Radio Farda. Here's what I've been following and what I'm watching out for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

Iranian authorities have abruptly canceled dozens of music concerts and cultural events in recent weeks, the latest sign of authorities exerting more pressure on the country's social and cultural spheres. Earlier this month, rights activist Maryam Karimbeigi was sentenced to more than three years in prison for attending a concert by a popular Iranian singer in Turkey. Days earlier, security agents halted a music concert in Tehran while the musicians were onstage.

Iranian authorities have imposed new restrictions on different segments of society in recent months. Authorities have increased the enforcement of rules that make it mandatory for women to wear a hijab in public. There has been a crackdown on dissent that has targeted prominent activists and filmmakers. Now, new constraints are being imposed on music groups and singers.

These moves can be seen as the continuation of attempts by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his hard-line supporters to homogenize life in Iran. Over the past year, hard-liners have gained control of the presidency and the parliament. Hard-line clerics have also been appointed to top positions in the judiciary and the Guardians Council, a powerful constitutional watchdog. Now, it appears, hard-liners are attempting to use their power to police social life and cultural tastes.

Why It Matters: The hard-liners claim the new restrictions are aimed at paving the way for the establishment of a new “Islamic civilization” that Khamenei intends to create. They have demanded that citizens must act in accordance with the clerical establishment’s perception of Shi’a Islam and its standards of conduct. This is seen as an attempt to curb rising anti-establishment sentiment among the public. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi insisted that some concerts were recently canceled due to security issues, although he did not elaborate.

What’s Next: The main objective of Iran’s hard-liners has been to enforce standards for what they have called an “ideal Islamic social life,” including uniform Islamic clothing and harmonized cultural tastes. In the current political climate, with crippling sanctions raising the cost of living and sowing discontent among the public, greater social control under the disguise of enforcing Islamic law boosts hard-liners’ morale. At the same time, it becomes a tool to suppress any protest by discrediting any individualistic and liberal approach to taste and choice.

Stories You Might Have Missed

A video posted online by a group of Iranian female activists in support of a woman arrested for protesting mandatory head-scarf rules has gone viral just days after she appeared on television making a "confession" they allege was made under duress. In the video published on social media on August 16, the activists recite a piece of poetry titled "The Confession," written by an anonymous user who uses the moniker "Darya." The poem is addressed to Sepideh Rashno, a 28-year-old writer and artist who was arrested on June 15 after a video of her arguing with another woman who was enforcing rules on wearing a head scarf on a bus in Tehran was posted online.

Iranian authorities have intensified their persecution and harassment of members of the Baha’i faith, according to Amnesty International. Since the end of July, the watchdog group says the authorities have raided dozens of Baha’i homes, detained at least 30 people, and subjected many more to interrogations, electronic ankle bracelets, and threats of imprisonment. They have also ramped up the confiscation and demolition of Baha’i properties, Amnesty said. Baha’is face systematic persecution in Iran, where their faith is not recognized in the constitution.

What We're Watching

Iran and world powers appear to be on the cusp of agreeing to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that curbed Tehran’s sensitive nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions on the Islamic republic. Unnamed U.S. officials have said that Iran has dropped some of its main demands on restoring the agreement, bringing the possibility of a deal closer. But Iranian officials appeared to have contradicted those claims. Tehran has insisted that a core demand -- the UN nuclear watchdog closing probes into its nuclear program -- be addressed. Without Iran’s cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the revival of the nuclear deal seems impossible.

Why It Matters: Iran and world powers are close to a deal, although hurdles still remain. Key sticking points could unravel efforts even at this advanced stage of negotiations. But there is growing optimism that an agreement is finally within reach after more than a year of acrimonious talks. The increased public messaging by Tehran and Washington indicates that both sides are readying for an agreement.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Mehrdad Mirdamadi