The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter. To subscribe, click here.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari. Here's what I've been following during the past week and what I'm watching for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

Opposition figure Mir Hossein Musavi has called for the "fundamental transformation" of Iran's theocratic political system as anti-regime protests continue to rage across the country. In a statement on February 4, the 80-year-old called for a "free" referendum and the drafting of a new constitution.

Musavi, a former prime minister who has been under house arrest since 2011, added that Iranians want change based on the slogan "Woman, life, freedom" -- which many have been chanting during the months of antiestablishment protests.

Seven prominent political prisoners, including reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh, backed Musavi's call in a joint statement on February 5.

Why It Matters: In the past, opposition figures inside Iran often called for reforms to the clerically led system. But Musavi's statement, in which he proposes a post-Islamic republic future, marks a shift. His comments appear to reflect a wider change in Iranian society.

"Iranians now share a broad-based consensus that something in the regime is broken and cannot be mended," Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, wrote in an article for Foreign Affairs magazine. He said that "illusions of reforms" have been replaced by an "irrevocable demand for fundamental political change and freedom."

During the current protests, the biggest challenge to the regime in decades, demonstrators have attacked the symbols of the Islamic republic and overtly called for an end to clerical rule.

Musavi's comments have added to growing calls for political change in Iran. Former reformist President Mohammad Khatami, in a February 5 statement, did not go as far as Musavi. But he said there was "widespread discontent" in Iran and expressed hope that "nonviolent civil methods [will] force the governing system to change its approach and accept reforms."

What's Next: There is little sign that the authorities will alter their approach or make significant concessions. The regime is likely to double down on its position and continue to use violence to stamp out any opposition to its rule in the future.

The authorities recently ordered an amnesty or reduction in prison sentences for the thousands of people arrested during the deadly crackdown on the protests, suggesting the regime believes it has managed to end the unrest using force.

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• Three medical workers who traveled to Iran's Kurdistan region to treat injured anti-regime protesters were arrested by the authorities, tortured, and charged with acting against national security, informed sources told RFE/RL. They are among the dozens of doctors, nurses, and other health professionals who have been arrested during the crackdown on the protests.
• Iran looked forward to a tough winter in Europe that would allow Tehran to capitalize on its enormous natural gas resources. But when freezing temperatures arrived in Iran, perennial winter gas shortages served as a reminder of decades of failed energy policies and the country's difficulties in turning the situation around.

What We're Watching

Iran unveiled what it said was an underground air-force base on February 7. The base can accommodate fighter jets, bombers, and drones, according to state media, which released images and videos from inside the base. The location of the base was not disclosed, but state TV said it was "at the depth of hundreds of meters under the mountains" and capable of withstanding "bombs by strategic U.S. bombers."

The official IRNA news agency claimed that the base, named Eagle 44, is just one of the several underground air bases constructed in recent years. In May, state media published images of what it said was an underground drone base in western Iran.

What's Next: The unveiling of the base, which came as the country prepares to mark the 44th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, appears to be an attempt to show strength at a time when the clerical regime is facing mounting pressure at home and abroad.

It also comes after a suspected Israeli drone strike hit an Iranian military facility on January 28, in an attack that analysts said was part of a new effort to contain Tehran. The new "containment strategy" comes amid growing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and its supply of combat drones to Russia, which has allegedly used them in the war in Ukraine.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Golnaz Esfandiari

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter. To subscribe, click here.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari. Here's what I've been following during the past week and what I'm watching for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

A gunman stormed the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran on January 27, killing one guard and wounding two others. Iran said the attack was motivated by personal reasons, but Baku described it as a “terrorist attack.”

The incident led Azerbaijan to temporarily suspend its operations at its embassy in Tehran and evacuate its staff from the country. Iranian media said the attacker, who was arrested, was an Iranian man married to an Azerbaijani woman. The attacker was quoted as saying that his wife disappeared after entering the Azerbaijani Embassy.

Why It Matters: The incident has further strained relations between the neighbors, who have a history of tensions. Azerbaijan has long been suspicious of Iran’s ties with Armenia, Baku’s archenemy. Meanwhile, Tehran has increasingly expressed concern about Azerbaijan’s deepening relations with Israel, Tehran’s regional foe. Earlier this month, Baku appointed its first-ever ambassador to Israel, which is a major arms supplier to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan has also long complained of Iran’s alleged mistreatment of its sizable ethnic Azeri minority. Tehran has accused Baku of fomenting separatist sentiment in the Islamic republic.

Analyst Habib Hosseinifard told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the embassy attack has led to an “overflow” of tensions.

“Iran claims some of Israel’s actions against the country are organized from inside Azerbaijan. In addition, Iran also accuses Azerbaijan of inciting the country’s Azeri minority, while Baku accuses Tehran of strengthening extremist Shi’ite groups inside Azerbaijan. All of these have increased tensions, particularly in the past two years,” he said.

What's Next: Since the embassy attack, Iran has attempted to ease tensions with Azerbaijan. But Baku appears to have upped the ante by announcing on January 31 the arrests of what it said were seven members of an Iranian spy network in Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov said in a January 31 statement that “suspension of a diplomatic mission’s operations in any country is a serious matter" and that Baku has let Tehran know that "we do not trust Iran with respect to ensuring the security of our embassy’s employees.”

The statement came days after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in a phone call that “the governments of Iran and Azerbaijan will not allow bilateral relations to be affected by the suggestions of those who wish ill on the two nations,” according to the Iranian government’s website.

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Analysts say a suspected Israeli drone strike on a military site in Iran is part of a new effort to contain the Islamic republic. There has been a series of incidents inside Iran during the past year, including sabotage and cyberattacks, assassinations, and the mysterious killings of members of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, as well as scientists and engineers. Tehran has blamed some of the incidents on Israel.

Meghdad Jebelli, the brother of Iran's state TV chief Peyman Jebelli, spoke to Radio Farda about his decision to leave Iran and seek asylum in Canada. Meghdad Jebelli left his homeland soon after Iran's downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet that killed all 176 people onboard, including his 29-year-old nephew. Jebelli said "real justice will only be achieved when the perpetrators of the crimes of the past 44 years are punished,” in reference to the clerical regime that came to power following the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

What We're Watching

A group of Iranian lawmakers have submitted a draft bill to curb “unprofessional comments” posted on social media by influential figures, including celebrities. The proposed legislation prescribes prison terms of up to 15 years and fines for those found guilty. Supporters of the draft bill have said it will punish those who undermine national security. But critics have labeled it the “suffocation bill.”

What's Next: The proposed legislation is an attempt by the authorities to further crack down on dissent amid ongoing anti-regime protests that have rocked the country since September. The demonstrations are the biggest threat to the clerical regime in years.

The antiestablishment protests have attracted support from all corners of Iranian society, including celebrities. Several well-known figures have been summoned or arrested in recent months by police after showing support for the demonstrations.

Until next time,

Golnaz Esfandiari

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.