The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter. To subscribe, click here.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari. Here's what I've been following during the past week and what I'm watching for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

Iran said it is engaged in indirect talks with the United States over a possible prisoner swap and the lifting of crippling American sanctions.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on June 12 that a prisoner swap could be agreed "in the near future" if Washington shows "the same seriousness and goodwill."

At least three dual Iranian-American citizens are currently held by Tehran, including businessmen Siamak Namazi, who has been in prison since 2015.

Kanaani said the basis for the indirect talks, mediated by Oman, is the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the agreement and reimposed sanctions in 2018. In response, Tehran has expanded its sensitive nuclear activities, raising fears in the West that it could build a nuclear weapon.

Washington has not denied that it is engaged in indirect talks with Tehran. An unnamed U.S. official told Reuters that the two sides are not discussing a possible interim deal that could involve Tehran agreeing to suspend its nuclear activities in exchange for some sanctions relief.

"We have made clear to them what escalatory steps they needed to avoid to prevent a crisis and what de-escalatory steps they could take to create a more positive context," the official said, without offering details.

Tehran's confirmation of indirect talks came after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said over the weekend that "there is nothing wrong with an agreement [with the West]," although he added that "the infrastructure of our nuclear industry should not be touched."

The UN's nuclear watchdog said recently that Tehran had resolved some outstanding issues that the agency had raised.

Why It Matters: Iran and the United States appear to be renewing their engagement after a monthslong pause.

The sides have held talks over reviving the nuclear deal since President Joe Biden assumed office in 2020. But the negotiations have proved protracted and inconclusive, with Washington accusing Tehran of making unrealistic demands.

After the antiestablishment protests erupted in Iran in September 2022, Washington said the nuclear deal was "not on the agenda."

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, told me that a prisoner swap "could open the door to more de-escalation, which in turn could create time and space to discuss a way forward."

"Both sides seem to have realized that the 'no deal, no crisis' status quo could quickly turn into a 'no deal, big crisis' situation that neither side wants," Vaez said.

What's Next: It is not clear if Tehran is ready to take steps that would lead to a de-escalation, including allowing UN inspectors greater access to its nuclear sites and releasing detained Americans.

But Khamenei's comments appear to have prepared the ground for "renewed engagement with the West," according to Vaez.

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A declassified U.S. cable obtained by RFE/RL's Radio Farda shows that a close associate and longtime friend of the founder of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, met with U.S. Embassy officials in Iran in the 1960s.

Iran's relations with its northwestern neighbor Azerbaijan have devolved into scolding and heated rhetoric as Tehran objects to outside influence from regional rivals in what it considers its backyard. The discord has been fueled by violent incidents, war games, Baku's military cooperation with Israel, and objections to the prospect of Azerbaijan building a trade corridor to the West.

What We're Watching

In his first trip to Latin America, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi met with his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicola Maduro, on June 13.

Raisi said the two countries have "common interests and common enemies." Iran and Venezuela are both under U.S. sanctions.

The countries have forged close ties in recent years. In 2020, Iran provided fuel to the country during a shortage.

Raisi arrived in Nicaragua on June 14 where he met with seniors officials. He will later travel to Cuba.

Why It Matters: Raisi's trip is aimed at bolstering Iran's ties with its Latin American allies and increasing its presence in the region.

Before departing Tehran, the Iranian president said the country's relations with "independent" Latin American countries was "strategic."

"Through its presence in America's backyard, Tehran wants to pursue its political and ideological calculations and create some kind of convergence with these countries," Iranian analyst Hadi Alami Fariman told the hard-line Tasnim news agency.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Golnaz Esfandiari

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter. To subscribe, click here.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari. Here's what I've been following during the past week and what I'm watching for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

Iran unveiled what it described as its first domestically made hypersonic ballistic missile on June 6, claiming it can travel up to 15 times the speed of sound.

Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, posted images of the new Fattah missile. The weapons system was unveiled at a ceremony attended by President Ebrahim Raisi and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC's aerospace force, claimed the missile has a range of 1,400 kilometers and can reach a speed of 15,500 kilometers per hour. He boasted that the missile is capable of evading any anti-missile defense system.

Western military experts say Iran sometimes exaggerates figures for the capabilities of its weapons.

Why It Matters: Iran has been expanding its missile program in recent years, with Tehran believed to have the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East.

The United States and Israel see Iran’s missile program as a threat to the region, warning the missiles could be used to carry nuclear weapons. Iran has said its arsenal is for defense and deterrence purposes only.

Experts say the speed and maneuvering capabilities of hypersonic ballistic missiles make them difficult to track and intercept.

But they have raised questions about the capabilities of the Fattah missile.

Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told me it does not appear to be as sophisticated as the hypersonic missiles that the United States and China have developed.

Hinz said the Fattah missile "can do some basic maneuvers, but not for the same amount of time and not as dramatic" as systems developed by other countries.

Jeremie Binnie, a Middle East defense specialist at the global intelligence company Janes, told me there are "questions as to whether it is really capable of accurately hitting its target at the very high speed that has been claimed."

What's Next: The unveiling of the Fattah missile is likely to increase the West's concerns about Iran's missile program.

Only several countries, including the United States, China, and Russia, have developed hypersonic ballistic missiles. Russia is believed to be the only country to have deployed them in combat. North Korea has also claimed it has successfully tested a hypersonic missile.

Hinz said despite its limits the Fattah missile is "another technologically sophisticated element in Iran's strategy of overcoming the ballistic missile defenses" of its regional adversaries.

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The former head of Tehran's notorious Evin prison has expressed "shame" over the mass execution of political prisoners at the facility in 1988, in unprecedented comments on Clubhouse. Hossein Mortazavi Zanjani claimed he was not involved in the executions. While some Iranians praised his comments, others questioned his motives.

An Iranian cultural official has been sacked after a viral video showed a man proposing to a woman without a head scarf at the tomb of a celebrated Persian poet. The video shows violations of Iran's harsh morality laws, such as women with their heads uncovered and the man publicly embracing the woman, while a crowd applauds.

What We're Watching

The authorities in Iran appear to be increasing pressure on female university students to adhere to the country’s Islamic dress code.

A local students group reported on June 5 that a significant number of students from Tehran's University of Science and Technology as well as at least 11 professors were summoned during the past week.

The reasons cited were an alleged refusal to comply with mandatory hijab rules and what university authorities termed "inappropriate dress."

Why It Matters: Iran's universities turned into a battleground between the authorities and protesters during the monthslong antiestablishment demonstrations that erupted in September.

The rallies were triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died shortly after she was arrested for allegedly violating the hijab law.

Campuses were often the sites of demonstrations led by students and bloody government crackdowns.

The authorities' ongoing pressure on students could trigger new protests at universities, which have often been at the forefront of the struggle for greater rights and freedoms in the Islamic republic.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Golnaz Esfandiari

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.