Steve Gutterman's Week In Russia

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has faced something close to a perfect storm in the past several days, with setbacks on many fronts, ranging from politics and opinion polls to space, soccer, religion regional tension, and more. Meanwhile, a senior judge thinks he has a solution to some of the woes putting pressure on Putin early in his six-year term: "pinpoint" changes in the constitution.

Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week, and some of the takeaways going forward.

Поехали!

Here we go.

Five months after Vladimir Putin was sworn in for another stint as president, speculation that his new term would bring steps that could keep him in power after it's over seems to have been spot on.

In an article in the official government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta on October 10, Constitutional Court Chairman Valery Zorkin pointed to "shortcomings" in the post-Soviet constitution that Russia adopted 25 years ago -- but nothing, he wrote, that cannot be fixed with a few "pinpoint" changes.

Sounds simple -- unless you recall what happened when the Russian authorities talked about warplanes conducting "pinpoint strikes" against Chechen rebels in 1999, when Putin was prime minister and soon to be president. The result was something closer to pure devastation.

It makes sense for Zorkin to suggest that a major change is not in the cards, though, because Putin may not want to take the most direct path toward staying on as president: abolishing the constitutional limit of two straight Kremlin terms.

While an extension of the Russian presidential term to six years instead of four has added to Putin's time in power since he first got the job in 2000, he has so far been careful to abide by the limit of two straight terms – taking a four-year break in 2008-12 and serving as prime minister again.

Zorkin seemed to say as much when he set up his argument for adjustments by citing what he claimed, without citing evidence, was a spate of "calls for cardinal constitutional reforms."

But his suggestions leave plenty of room for smaller changes that could give Putin ways to maintain ultimate power, or at least a leading role, without actually being president.

'Social Tension'

For one thing, Zorkin said that the current system of checks and balances lacks balance, giving more weight to the executive branch, and that the delimitation of powers between president and cabinet could be clearer.

In addition, he suggested that a two-party system might be more effective than what Russia has now, even pointing to the United States as a positive example: perhaps unexpected props from a judge who in the same article puts the bulk of the blame for "social tension" in today's Russia on Western sanctions – along with "three decades of reforms," a timeframe that goes back to the eras of the last Soviet leader, Milkhail Gorbachev, and Putin's predecessor, Boris Yeltsin.

One way to translate that: If Putin has to change the constitution, it's not his fault -- it's the fault of his predecessors, who did not have the best interests of the Russian people in mind, and of the West, which is bent on undermining the former Cold War foe.

Zorkin is not the first Russian to talk about a two-party system in recent months. And with United Russia suffering problems at the polls amid public dismay over an imminent hike in the retirement age, it could make sense for Putin to broaden his support base and curb his reliance on the ruling party.

Party Of One

But the Kremlin has tried to put a two-party system in place at least twice before – and failed. Failed so fully, in fact, that United Russia is often likened to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

Zorkin's suggestions were not all about the mechanics and details of the balance of power: He also hinted that the constitution could be changed to enshrine a state ideology -- a system that would combine economic and political competition with what he called the sense of "collectivism that is intrinsic to the Russian people."

To fit the "mentality of the Russian people," he said, the country needs a legal concept that "synthesizes the ideas of individual freedom and social solidarity."

Those words are likely to ring alarm bells among Russians who believe that the rights of individuals should know no borders, and spark concerns that the country's leaders could use claims about a special Russian soul -- and the need for some kind of "third way" for Russia to thrive -- to limit the freedoms of individuals, minorities, or opponents of the Kremlin.

It's not clear whether Zorkin's article presages any sharp turns in the short-term, if ever.

After a constitutional crisis culminated in the bloodshed of October 1993, Yeltsin's constitution was approved in a controversial referendum that December 12 and entered into force on December 25 -- two years after Gorbachev resigned, sealing the Soviet Union's demise. The anniversary might provide Putin with a setting in which to make changes with less of a jolt.

• RFE/RL

Thirty years ago, Russia faced a constitutional crisis that marked a key turning point in Russia's post-Soviet development.

But Putin may think he has plenty of time to choose how – or whether – he wants to maintain power after 2024, when his current term ends.

Or he may not.

While analysts have predicted Putin's post-2024 plans might not start taking shape until a few years into this term, Zorkin's article – and a grim report on the public mood from a think tank founded by former Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin -- come amid a series of setbacks for a leader who sometimes seems to be coated in Teflon.

His ratings are down sharply amid anger over the pension reform, he's been scrambling to shore up power in the regions after a series of electoral defeats for United Russia, and a closed-door deal to redraw the border between Chechnya and Ingushetia has led to persistent protests – an unsettling reminder of deep-seated disputes that lie just beneath the surface of a huge and diverse country.

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Gunfire And Protests After Chechnya-Ingushetia Deal

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​Ballistic Descent

And in another blow, a U.S. astronaut and a Russian cosmonaut had to come hurtling back to Earth in a "ballistic descent" after the first failed launch of a manned Soyuz craft in 35 years. They survived unhurt, but Russia's already struggling space program suffered a hit that could leave a lasting bruise.

"Russian space shame," read one headline after the emergency on October 11.

Hours later, the leader of the Orthodox Christian world took a big step toward granting the Ukrainian church independence, a historic move that will curb the influence of the Moscow patriarch and Russia itself.

SEE ALSO:

Ecumenical Patriarchate Agrees To Recognize Independence Of Ukrainian Church

And then there's football. Months after Putin scored a big PR victory by successfully staging the World Cup, Russian soccer showed its darker side when two prominent players acted more like hooligans or worse, getting jailed and charged with battery after allegedly beating an ethnic Korean official from their country's own government.

Kokorin & Mamayev Vs. Chepiga & Mishkin

While the Kremlin was clearly not pleased, Putin could perhaps take solace in the thought that Aleksandr Kokorin and Pavel Mamayev may have crowded two other names -- Anatoly Chepiga and Aleksandr Mishkin -- out of headlines at home and abroad.

According to cybersleuthing group Bellingcat, Chepiga and Mishkin are the real identities of the two men Britain believes poisoned former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, with a Soviet-designed nerve agent in the English city of Salisbury in March.

As a backdrop to the more recent setbacks, the military intelligence agency known as the GRU has faced ridicule over what seem to be slip-ups that have undermined Russia's denial of involvement in the Salisbury poisoning – which Britain says led to the death of one woman – and other malign activities beyond its borders.

But there's been a bit of a backlash against the portrayals of Russian agents as a bumbling bunch of Keystone Cops, with analysts warning that the West shouldn't let down its guard.

One thing to remember, they point out, is that Putin's push to restore Moscow's global clout is largely about being there – whether it is Syria, Salisbury, or some other place -- and being noticed.

Editor's Note: To receive Steve Gutterman's Week In Russia each week via e-mail, subscribe by clicking here.

President Vladimir Putin branded former double agent Sergei Skripal a “scumbag” and signed a law that will raise the retirement age in Russia by five years.

Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward.

Tough Talk

Scumbags, snotty noses, separatists who should be “wasted in the outhouse.”

When Russian President Vladimir Putin reaches for the saltier sections of his vocabulary, it’s meant to sound like it’s coming straight from the heart, or perhaps a more nether region – an emotional outburst from a man who cares so deeply for Russia that he cannot contain his anger at those who, in his estimation, would do it harm.

Could be.

But there may be a method to Putin’s madness – a calculus behind earthy remarks that seem to be uttered off the cuff but often come during organized events at which he knows he will be on stage and is well aware of the topics he may asked to comment on as state TV cameras roll and dozens of journalists, some foreign, stand with pens, pads, and recorders at the ready.

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'Simply A Scumbag': Putin Calls Ex-Spy Skripal A 'Traitor'

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Take Putin’s rant regarding Sergei Skripal, the former Russian spy Britain accuses his government of sending military-intelligence operatives to poison with a Soviet-designed nerve agent in the English city of Salisbury in March.

In front of an audience of buttoned-up executives at an international energy forum in Moscow on October 3, Putin called Skripal a traitor and added: "He's just a scumbag, that's all there is to it."

On one level, these remarks were unremarkable – a straightforward slap at a man with a similar background to that of the longtime Soviet-era KGB officer Putin, but with a career arc that landed him in prison, convicted of treason for passing information to Britain, and then sent him West in the 2010 spy swap that brought Russian sleeper agent Anna Chapman back to Moscow from New York.

But there are at least three reasons Putin might have wanted to make waves with an outburst that he certainly knew would be all over the news – despite not actually being newsworthy.

To find one of those reasons, just take a look at the rush of recent developments surrounding the poisoning of Skripal and his daughter Yulia, as well as Dawn Sturgess, who died after being exposed to Novichok from a fake perfume bottle found near Salisbury, and her boyfriend, who fell ill but survived.

Changing The Subject

Putin’s remarks came amid persistent scrutiny of the two suspects named by Britain and mounting evidence that they are, in fact, officers of the Russian military intelligence agency, known as the GRU.

Russia continues to deny involvement. But after an awkward, hole-riddled RT interview in which the suspects claimed to be sports nutrition specialists who happened to be in Salisbury as tourists in the raw late winter when investigators say Novichok was slathered on Skripal’s front door, Moscow may have little hope of persuading people that Britain is pointing to the wrong two guys.

And the idea that the pair might be gay – which was hinted at by their interviewer, RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan, and promoted for a time by state media -- seems to have given way to the suggestion that they are good guys and Russian heroes: the boys next door who grew up to defend the interests of the fatherland.

That narrative fits better with the claim by Bellingcat, the British-based open-source investigation group that is doing much of the digging into their identities, that the suspect who carried a passport with the name Ruslan Boshirov is in fact Anatoly Chepiga – a GRU colonel decorated with a Hero of the Russian Federation medal in 2014, the year Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine.

In any case, the Kremlin has clearly been tiring of the onslaught of allegations. Putin’s spokesman admitted as much on September 28 when he snapped to journalists on a conference call: “We don’t want to participate in a continuing discussion of this question, especially with the media.”

With the spotlight trained squarely on Russia, from Chepiga’s remote hometown near the Chinese border to the drab Moscow district where the GRU's headquarters is located, Putin may have been eager to change the subject a bit by putting the focus on Skripal – and on his own harsh words.

And his curt dismissal of the former double agent as a “traitor “and a “scumbag” contrasts with the suggestion that the two Russian suspects, regardless of whether they did it and whether they botched the job, are heroes – or at the very least, not traitors.

'GRU Culture'

Whether or not it had any effect on Russian public opinion, Putin’s outburst did nothing to staunch the flow of accusations against Russia and the GRU.

On October 4, the Netherlands said it had expelled four alleged Russian intelligence officers in April over a plot targeting the Organization for the Prohibition for Chemical Weapons and an international investigation into the 2014 downing of Flight MH17 over Ukraine, and the United States, Canada, and Britain made related announcements.

It’s unclear whether all this might prompt Moscow to halt what U.S. officials call its “malign activities” around the globe – or, as Russia expert and author Mark Galeotti put in in July, “unleashing its spooks” and “empowering a GRU culture that is willing to take chances and break rules.”

There are plenty who don’t think it will.

While the blatant slipups that have embarrassed the GRU and helped Western investigators and journalists expose apparent espionage might prompt Putin to try to run a tighter ship, he seemed to hint strongly that Russian spying would continue undeterred.

Dismissing the accusations against Russia as an “information campaign,” Putin – possibly the world leader who most often talks about prostitution – said that espionage and prostitution are two of the world’s “most important professions” and won't be fading away anytime soon.

Gone Fishin'

He also alleged that Skripal “continued cooperating with some secret services” after he was sprung from prison and sent West in the 2010 swap. That may have been meant as a suggestion that Skripal was fair game despite having left Russia in an exchange rather than defecting -- and as a warning to Russian spies that they may be tracked down and killed if they betray their country.

That is a warning Putin has put out before. But it’s a message that has just been undermined by a BuzzFeed report that Aleksandr Poteyev, the former spymaster who exposed the undercover network that included Chapman and defected to the United States in 2010, was alive and well – and acquired a saltwater fishing license in Florida -- months after Russian state TV said he was dead.

Meanwhile, though, Putin has things to think about closer to home and far from the cloak-and-dagger world of espionage, including one that could potentially have given him cause to distract Russians with his “scumbag” quip.

About three hours after Putin laid into Skripal, the Kremlin announced without fanfare that he had signed a bill that will raise the retirement age for Russians by five years – perhaps the most unpopular piece of legislation that has left his desk since he first became president in 2000.

His signature capped a months-long march from Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s announcement of plans for pension reform to its enactment as the law of the land, punctuated by protests in which some demonstrators have carried signs branding Putin an “enemy of the people.”

A Matter Of Trust

Economists have long warned that Russia could not afford not to raise the pension age, but Putin did just that until now. He distanced himself from the bill for many weeks after it was submitted, finally weighing in with an address to the nation on August 29. In it, he proposed raising the retirement age for women by five years rather than the eight years proposed in the original bill.

That adjustment was duly made, and the bill sailed through a final vote in parliament hours before Putin signed it.

The jury – that is, the people – is still out on the effects of the pension reform on the political scene in Russia, where Putin is just five months into a six-year Kremlin term that could be his last, leaving the future uncertain after what has now been 20 years in which he has been president or prime minister.

But it seems clear that the pension reform has dented Putin’s popularity in a way that will be hard to reverse.

In a poll conducted in September by the independent agency Levada, 58 percent of respondents said that Putin “fully deserved” their trust, down from 75 percent in 2017 and lower than the army, which scored 66 percent.

While still small, meanwhile, the proportion that said Putin does not deserve their trust at all rose sharply – from 4 percent in 2017 to 13 percent last month.