Steve Gutterman's Week In Russia

Editor's Note: To receive Steve Gutterman's Week In Russia each week via e-mail, subscribe by clicking here.

Vladimir Putin made brief contact with U.S. President Donald Trump in Paris, where world leaders marked the centenary of the end of the "war to end all wars" -- while wars involving Russia continue in Syria and eastern Ukraine. As Putin moved on to Asia, the European Court of Human Rights handed him a defeat in his ongoing showdown with Aleksei Navalny. And following his travels abroad, Putin returned to a country struggling to protect itself against Western sanctions without strangling economic growth.

Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward.

A Presidential 'Broment'

Putin can probably be pleased with his trip to Paris for the Armistice Day ceremonies on the centenary of the end of World War I: He hobnobbed with dozens of world leaders and made brief but visible contact with Trump -- not a summit or even a meeting, but enough for a positive portrayal on state TV at home and for the Western media -- amid tension between Trump and European leaders including the host, French President Emmanuel Macron -- to take notice.

Deep behind what might be described as enemy lines, given the adversarial flavor of relations between Moscow and the West in recent years and months, Putin also avoided direct vocal censure over his country's ample involvement in at least two wars causing death, destruction, and despair 100 years after the "war to end all wars." One of them -- in the coalfields of eastern Ukraine, where Russia-backed separatists have been fighting Kyiv's forces since 2014 and a cease-fire is routinely violated -- is the only war now being waged on the European continent.

But there is no sign of a big breakthrough for Putin on the international stage -- the easing of sanctions, for instance. And at this early stage in a six-year term that could be his last, there seems to be little happening at home that is cause for joy for the Russian president. The economy is troubled and his approval rating has fallen, thrusting up more clouds on the horizon and adding to questions about what awaits the country as 2024, when his time in the Kremlin is due to end, draws closer.

After White House national-security adviser John Bolton visited Moscow and met with Putin in the Kremlin, it looked like the World War I armistice ceremonies might be overshadowed by a big meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents. It soon became clear that that would not happen, with the Kremlin talking about a "stand-up" meeting on the sidelines and Trump saying he might not talk to Putin at all.

In the end, Putin may have gotten as much as he could realistically ask from the trip, or at least from his interaction with Trump. It boiled down mainly to a few seconds of contact when Putin, striding in late as usual, joined other leaders for a November 11 ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe: A brief moment -- or "broment" -- but one that attracted plenty of attention.

"The only leader [Trump] seemed to connect with at the Armistice ceremony was…Putin," Robin Wright wrote in The New Yorker.

Others -- albeit presumably jokingly -- read much more into the encounter, in which the two smiled and Putin gave Trump a thumbs-up and a soft clap on the arm in response to the U.S. president's pat on the back.

'Agent Donald'

Dmitry Smirnov, a Kremlin pool reporter whose tweets often operate as Russian propaganda, posted a photo of the encounter with the caption: "Never before has agent Donald been so close to failure."

A tweet from Michael Hayden, a former CIA and National Security Agency director and a vocal critic of Trump, seemed to be rooted in the same notion: "Brush pass with his handler?" the retired U.S. Air Force general asked.

Now Trump and Putin are expected to meet for substantive talks -- though just how substantive remains unclear -- on the sidelines of a G20 summit on November 30-December 1 in Buenos Aires.

In the meantime, Russian media outlets blamed Macron for the brevity of their encounters in Paris, suggesting he was hell-bent on keeping them apart. "Macron separated Putin and Trump," Smirnov tweeted with a photograph of the leaders seated at a long table for lunch on November 11. "At the last minute the French moved Trump's seat to the opposite [side of the table] from Putin."

Still, that didn't stop state-run news agency RIA Novosti from portraying the talk at a table of 20 or more as a more intimate conversation with Trump that, in Putin's words, went "well."

White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders later said the Trump and world leaders including Putin discussed issues including nuclear weapons, Syria, trade, the situation in Saudi Arabia, sanctions, Afghanistan, China, and North Korea."

There was little if any public criticism of Putin over Russia's role in Syria, where Moscow has given President Bashar al-Assad crucial support in a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of his people.

'Sham 'Elections''

And there was apparently no discussion at lunch of the war in Ukraine or even the elections -- or "sham 'elections'," as the U.S. State Department put it -- being held that very day in the portions of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed separatists.

Putin also got some good news from the United States, where key senators said Congress was not expected to pass legislation on new sanctions in 2018.

But while Putin may have had a good trip to France, some of the most prominent tycoons in the Russian elite may find themselves frozen out of one of their favorite events abroad come January: the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

And Putin -- who traveled to Southeast Asia after Paris for a regional summit that Trump skipped, and tried a shoulder-clap on Vice President Mike Pence in Singapore -- returned home with no sign of a respite from the Western sanctions that are already in place.

Minsk Matters

That's in part due to the balloting in the Donbas, which Bloomberg Opinion columnist Leonid Bershidsky cited as "further evidence the Kremlin plans to hang onto the territories" held by the Russia-backed separatists there.

The person elected to head the separatists in Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, seemed to add weight to that interpretation when he declared that the "course toward the Russian Federation will be continued" and contended, "We have already learned to live without Ukraine."

And in another sign that there is little chance the Donbas conflict will end soon, Putin made clear he's hoping for change in Kyiv's stance after a presidential election in late March -- drawing an angry response from President Petro Poroshenko, who accused him of meddling in the contest before it has even begun.

In Paris, Poroshenko met with Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who brokered the largely unimplemented February 2015 cease-fire and conflict-settlement deal known as Minsk II. But Putin said there was no point in another of the four-way meetings he has held with them to discuss the conflict, blaming Kyiv for the lack of progress toward peace.

Kyiv blames Russia, as does the United States and much of the West. "Russia incorrectly claims Ukraine has failed to implement the Minsk agreements. The reality is the opposite," the U.S. special envoy for the conflict, Paul Volker, tweeted on November 11.

"The so-called 'People's Republics' have no place in the Minsk agreements and are illegitimate tools supported by Russia's military might and created by Russia to administer Ukrainian territory it controls by force," Volker wrote in another tweet.

Sanctions Bite

In Singapore, Putin defiantly said that sanctions cannot stop Russia's cannot stop Russia's economic or "technological development" -- harking back to his calls, in both a March 1 state-of-the-nation speech and his inauguration address in May, for a technological "breakthrough" that would bolster the economy and improve living standards.

Two reports from Bloomberg this past week suggest he could be wrong.

One of them said that while spending cuts, tight monetary policies, and prudent use of oil revenues are helping to "limit the fallout" from possible future U.S. sanctions, government statistics show "it's all coming at the expense of economic growth."

The other said that "sanctions may have knocked as much as 6 percent off Russia's economy over the past four years," and that the negative effect is likely to persist.

Surprisingly for some, at least, it said sanctions had been a heavier drag on the economy than oil-price fluctuations in the past half-decade -- "the bigger culprit" behind a finding that Russia's economy is 10 percent smaller than might have been predicted in 2013.

Apres Vous

By the way, Putin wasn't the only Russian politician in France this past week.

In a kind of postscript to Putin's visit, a man who would like to replace him – opposition firebrand Aleksei Navalny -- traveled to Strasbourg to hear the European Court of Human Rights ruling on his claim that the Russian state violated many of his fundamental rights by arresting and jailing him repeatedly in recent years.

It took Navalny two tries to get out of Russia , but he presumably believes it was worth the effort.

The court ruled that several of his arrests in 2012-14 were unlawful, arbitrary, and -- as Navalny noted in a celebratory tweet -- politically motivated.

Navalny's arrests, the court said, were not "necessary in a democratic society."

Editor's Note: The Week In Russia will not appear on November 23 but will return to its regular schedule on November 30.

Editor's Note: To receive Steve Gutterman's Week In Russia each week via e-mail, subscribe by clicking here.

President Vladimir Putin doubles down amid laughter and concern over the missions and missteps of the GRU, hailing its officers as examples to emulate, while accidents on land and at sea point up deep-seated problems in Russia and Kremlin-watchers try to puzzle out what the U.S. midterm election results mean for Moscow.

Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward.

не GRUсти​

Q: What do you do when your military intelligence agency is facing ridicule and rumors of a purge over what some see as unpardonable and embarrassing mistakes?

A: Double down.

At least, that's what Russian President Vladimir Putin did in an address to staff of the GRU, as it is known despite dropping the "R" in 2010, on what the spy outfit -- once secretive but now in the spotlight because of accusations that it meddled in a U.S. presidential election, poisoned a former double-agent in England, and tried to hack the global chemical-weapons watchdog in The Hague, among other things -- celebrates as its 100th anniversary.

SEE ALSO:

Putin Praises GRU Spy Agency Blamed For Attacks In West

"I am confident of your professionalism, of your personal daring and decisiveness, and that each of you will do all that is required by Russia and our people," Putin said of the GRU, which has been skewered for a series of perceived blunders both large (an alleged assassination attempt that failed to take the target's life but ended up killing a bystander) and small (taxi receipts that helped cybersleuths track down its operatives.)

SEE ALSO:

News Analysis: Infighting? Incompetence? Distraction? What’s Happening With Russia's Spies?

Putin thanked the agency for playing a "huge role" in Russia's military campaign in Syria and said its operatives -- ready to make the ultimate sacrifice "for the motherland" -- set an example for a future generation of military spies.

The remarks seemed to put paid to speculation that Putin would send the opposite message by sending heads rolling in the GRU.

In addition to wondering whether the GRU would ditch its dime-a-dozen double-headed eagle, dragon-slaying St. George insignia and "regain its cool bat logo," analyst and author Mark Galeotti said Putin's speech – which was certainly not kept secret -- seemed to confirm that "the GRU has not, as some claim, angered Putin."

Galeotti raised and more or less dismissed the possibility that Putin's public praise was "part of the maskirovka, deception, keeping any recriminations behind closed doors," concluding: "Sure, Putin may feel an obligation to demonstrate his loyalty to his spooks -- but that is primarily because they are doing what he wants them to do."

Yulia Latynina, a journalist and analyst who skewers the Kremlin in a weekly show on Ekho Moskvy radio, hears a different message in Putin's words. It's that of a president whose response to mistakes by people who are part his system of rule -- "he always supports his own when they have screwed up," she said, and this "leads to the total incompetence and total incapacity of the system."

'News From A Superpower'

A glaring example of this incompetence, according to Latynina, was the collapse of a massive floating dry dock being used to repair Russia's only aircraft carrier, on October 30. The structure sank and a crane crashed down on the Admiral Kuznetsov, puncturing the deck and raising questions about how -- and when -- it will be lifted and removed. One worker is missing and presumed dead.

Authorities said the accident occurred when the ship was leaving the dry dock. But the aircraft carrier had been slated for many months of repairs and Latynina, without citing specific sources, said it was setting out on a mission to "answer" NATO's biggest military exercise since the Cold War -- centered in Norway and off its coast -- by making a show of Russian force.

The Russian military has not confirmed that, and Moscow has said little or nothing about what NATO and Norwegian officials said was a Russian Navy plan to test missiles off Norway's coast on November 1-3, in the middle of the "live-field" phase of the Western alliance's two-week Trident Juncture drills.

Putin and the Kremlin often portray the 1990s as a chaotic time of troubles that has faded into a bad memory since he became president in 2000. But critics like Latynina say that his failure to hold officials to account means corruption and corner-cutting have in fact flourished, leading to deadly accidents and errors of judgment.

Likening the Russian state to worm-eaten wood that is crumbling into dust, she said: "I'm not even talking about protecting one's citizens -- that's what democratic states do. But just being a strong, capable structure -- this state is not that."

The sinking dry dock was not the only recent example. A bridge being built in the Khanty-Mansiisk region of Siberia collapsed on November 5, killing two workers. It was at least the fourth bridge to fall in Russia since the beginning of October.

Meanwhile, in a post describing "news from a superpower," a Facebook user put together six headlines from recent years -- three from 2018 – about children drowning in cesspits.

And following reports that a gunman fired shots at multimillionaire businessman Oleg Burlakov's Cadillac Escalade as he sat in the vehicle, Galeotti -- an author and expert on crime in Russia -- tweeted that "the relatively peaceable status quo…does seem under increasing pressure these days."

Glory Days

When Putin turns to times past in hopes of instilling patriotism, he turns much further back than the 1990s.

On November 4, which he made National Unity Day in 2005 to replace the Revolution Day holiday three days later, Putin and Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill Patriarch Kirill met on Red Square and laid flowers at a monument celebrating the expulsion of Polish troops in 1612 -- the beginning of the end of the 15-year Time of Troubles that wracked Russia between two dynasties.

On November 7 -- the date of the former holiday celebrating the Bolshevik takeover in 1917 -- troops in World War II uniforms marched across the square outside the Kremlin in an elaborate homage to a 1941 parade whose participants marched straight to the front outside Moscow to fight the Nazis in World War II.

On November 11, attention will turn to a different war -- and Putin will be in a less isolated/domestic/Russia-centric setting, joining dozens of leaders in Paris to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I.

But amid the crowd, Putin may be more isolated than he would like to be: A meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, which two weeks ago seemed certain to happen, may not take place.

In Moscow on October 23, White House national-security adviser John Bolton said he told Putin that "President Trump would look forward to meeting with him in Paris."

We'll Always Have Argentina

At first it appeared that the two might hold substantive talks, but the Kremlin later said they would probably touch base briefly "on their feet" or at a luncheon -- and Trump said on November 7 that while they would both attend the lunch, they are not set to have a conversation.

"I don't think we have anything scheduled in Paris and I'm coming back very quickly," Trump said at a White House press conference a day after the midterm elections in the United States. "I don't think we have time set aside for that meeting."

Trump -- who faced criticism over his comments at a July 16 summit that was his only major meeting with Putin since he took office -- said he expects to sit down with the Russian president at a November 30-December 1 gathering of the Group of 20 (G20) in Buenos Aires.

One reason the optics of a meeting with Putin on Armistice Day would be ugly for some is that Russia-backed separatists who control parts of eastern Ukraine are holding elections -- denounced as "fake" by Kyiv and as illegitimate by the United States and European Union -- on the same day.

That would expose Trump to accusations that, while solemnly marking the end of World War I, he was ignoring the only war being fought in Europe today – and one that is widely seen in the West as the result of a Russian attempt to grab land and carve new borders.

But the uncertainty over a meeting in Paris -- however brief -- also underscores the sensitive situation in Russian-U.S. relations following the latter's midterm elections, in which Trump's Republicans lost their majority in the House of Representatives but retained control of the Senate.

The day after the vote, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that it would be hard for the relationship to get much worse -- but that the prospects for improvement don't look too great either.

SEE ALSO:

'Can't Get Much Worse, Probably Won't Get Better': Kremlin On U.S. Ties

For Peskov, that prognosis seems remarkably straightforward.

But Kremlin-watchers digging deeper have come up with some varying versions of what the results mean for Russia -- and what Putin really thinks about it.

'Rancor And Division'

On the one hand, Democratic control of the House could put more moxie into policies meant to pressure Russia, and certainly does not seem to bring the prospect of easing sanctions any closer.

Many Democrats in the lower legislative chamber want to dig deeper in a bid to determine whether there was any collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia in the 2016 presidential election, which could potentially put Trump on the defensive when it comes to his stated desire to improve relations with Russia -- particularly given that many Republicans also favor a tough stance.

SEE ALSO:

Democratic House Brings Uncertainty To Trump Foreign Policy

That's what Peskov may have been thinking about, primarily, when he said that "rosy prospects for the normalization of Russian-American relations are not visible on the horizon."

But, if one of the Kremlin's main goals since the 2016 campaign has been to create conflict and sow discord in U.S. society, the outcome of the vote looks pretty good.

"The split result of the U.S. midterms has divided Russian media outlets too," Coda Story said in an article on November 7. "While none are celebrating the Democrats winning back the House of Representatives, there are some commentators who see a potential upside for Russia -- if the United States sinks further into rancor and division."

That rancor was on display less than 24 hours after polls closed, when Trump's dismissal of Attorney General Jeff Sessions -- and his appointment of an acting chief prosecutor who has criticized Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into the alleged Russian meddling -- prompted dismay among Democrats and protests in several cities.