Steve Gutterman's Week In Russia

I'm Steve Gutterman, the editor of RFE/RL's Russia/Ukraine/Belarus Desk.

Welcome to The Week In Russia, in which I dissect the key developments in Russian politics and society over the previous week and look at what's ahead. To receive The Week In Russia newsletter in your inbox, click here.

As a confident President Vladimir Putin spoke at a four-hour event that marked a step toward a new six-year Kremlin term, there was no mention of his most prominent foe, imprisoned Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, whose whereabouts have been unknown for 10 days.

Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward.

No Question

For years, Putin has seemed to take great care to avoid mentioning Navalny by name.

At a closely watched, carefully choreographed event billed as a combined press conference and question-and-answer session with the Russian people, Putin had no trouble adhering to that policy, tradition, superstition, or whatever it is. Nobody asked about Navalny or any other prominent Kremlin opponent, for that matter, and Putin barely brought up politics at all, even though an election that's all but certain to hand him a fifth presidential term is just three months away.

The fact that Putin's most prominent foe was not mentioned in a performance that lasted over four hours may be part of a deliberate effort to keep him silent as the campaign, or what passes for a campaign, gets under way.

Navalny, who has been behind bars since he returned to Russia almost three years ago following treatment for a near-fatal nerve-agent poisoning he blames on Putin and the Federal Security Service, has not been heard from by his relatives, lawyers, or allies in 10 days.

'Flagrant Violation'

The Russian penitentiary authority indicated on December 15 that Navalny is in the process of being transferred to a different prison, but supporters do not know where he is -- and they're worried.

"What is happening with Alexei is, in fact, an enforced disappearance and a flagrant violation of his fundamental rights," wrote Maria Pevchikh, head of investigations and chairwoman of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, which is banned in Russia. "Answers must be given."

The absence of any mention of Navalny at the December 14 event was also an indication of how severe Russia's clampdown on dissent has become, particularly since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and how his confrontation with Kyiv and the West has changed the landscape.

In past years, at Putin's almost-annual press conference, journalists from Russia and the West frequently asked questions about the state's actions against the opposition. This time, only two reporters from the European Union or the United States were called on, and neither asked about domestic critics of the Kremlin.

Journalists Held

A New York Times correspondent, in fact, asked about a colleague who under different circumstances might have been asking Putin a question. But Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has been in a Moscow jail since March, when he was arrested by the Federal Security Service and accused of espionage, a charge that he, the Journal, and the United States vehemently deny.

Along with Alsu Kurmasheva of RFE/RL, Gershkovich is one of two American journalists being held in Russia. Minutes before Putin started speaking, a Moscow court rejected his appeal against a ruling that extended his term in pretrial detention until January 30.

The closest Putin and his interlocutors came to a discussion of the pervasive clampdown on dissent in Russia was when a reporter asked him about a case in which prosecutors had asked a court to sentence a journalist accused of extortion to 14 years in prison and suggested that calling for such a long term for a nonviolent crime might be considered a "witch hunt."

Putin dismissed the notion that it was a "witch hunt" and added, "Who is hunting for her? What is she, some kind of major opposition figure?"

The Truth Will Out

Kremlin critics took that as a substantial slip-up by Putin, an admission of something that he invariably denies despite what is now decades of evidence: that his government targets political opponents for prosecution.

"A rare moment of sincerity in an hours-long speech by a deceitful and hypocritical pharaoh," activist and commentator Sergei Parkhomenko wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "He is sitting there and thinking about Navalny, whom he hunts with his whole pack."

Navalny is one of three opposition leaders who have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms in the past year following trials on charges they say have been fabricated as punishment for public criticism of the invasion of Ukraine or other Kremlin actions. Many other Russians who have denounced the invasion have also been prosecuted.

More than a decade ago, Navalny was among the leaders of a wave of peaceful protests fueled by anger over evidence of rampant fraud in a 2011 parliamentary election and dismay over Putin's decision to return to the presidency in 2012 after a stint as prime minister.

Putin's 'Parody'

Navalny tried to challenge Putin in the most recent presidential vote, in 2018, but was barred from the ballot. His nationwide support network and other organizations he led were deemed extremist and outlawed in 2021, and many of his associates have been prosecuted or have fled Russia to avoid that fate.

On December 8 -- the day Putin confirmed widespread assumption that he would seek reelection in a March 17 vote certain to hand him a new six-year term, barring some enormous and unexpected development -- supporters of Navalny said they had not been able to contact him for three days.

A December 7 post on Navalny's blog, meanwhile, dismissed the upcoming vote as a "parody of an electoral process" and urged Russians to explain to their countrymen that "Putin, in power for 24 years, must not remain for another six years. He will bring harm to Russia. He must go."

On the same day, allies of Navalny disguised anti-Putin statements on billboards in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and several other Russian cities.

The prominent signs bore New Year's greetings along with a QR code that, when scanned with a mobile phone, led to a website titled Russia Without Putin.

When opened, the site includes wording that says: "The results of the voting will be falsified, but our task is to make sure it's clear to everyone…that Russia no longer needs Putin."

That's it from me this week.

If you want to know more, catch up on my podcast The Week Ahead In Russia, out every Monday, here on our site, or wherever you get your podcasts (Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts).

Yours,

Steve Gutterman

I'm Steve Gutterman, the editor of RFE/RL's Russia/Ukraine/Belarus Desk.

Welcome to The Week In Russia, in which I dissect the key developments in Russian politics and society over the previous week and look at what's ahead. To receive The Week In Russia newsletter in your inbox, click here.

The Russian state ratchets up what Human Rights Watch calls its "perverse persecution" of LGBT people. The Kremlin gets a wartime "gift" from a divided U.S. Congress. And a new presidential election draws closer.

Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward.

'Perverse Persecution'

Since the Soviet Union's collapse, Russian leaders have repeatedly sought to blame their policies on the Russian people, warning the West that the country would be more conservative, more recalcitrant, and harder to deal with if not for the officials acting as a filter on the moods and mores of citizens.

Kremlin opponents and analysts, however, say the opposite is far more often true: Policies are imposed on the people by the government and propaganda is used to bring the views of the people -- or at least, the opinions they are prepared to state publicly -- into step with the state and in line with the law.

A broad range of evidence indicates this is the case when it comes to what Human Rights Watch called "Russia's perverse persecution" of LGBT people, a phenomenon the state ramped up dramatically with a November 30 Supreme Court ruling labeling what it called the "international LGBT social movement" an extremist group.

There is no such thing as the "international LGBT social movement," of course, and that's one of the many aspects of the ruling that worries a wide range of people. The wording sparked suspicions that the Russian state is trying to paint all LGBT people as part of what President Vladimir Putin has portrayed as a U.S.-led effort to impose Western values on Russia and erase its own culture.

That portrayal fits in with Putin's increasing attempts to cast the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a purely defensive battle to save Russia and, as he put it in a speech on November 28, to fight "for the freedom of the whole world" from "the dictatorship of a single hegemon" -- clearly a reference to the United States, though he almost always avoids naming any specific country.

The wording of the Russian Supreme Court ruling also raised fears it would pave the way for persecution of LGBT people regardless of whether they are involved in public activism. Those concerns quickly proved well-founded: One day after the decision was handed down following a closed-door hearing, police raided several LGBT-friendly clubs and other establishments in Moscow.

"How quickly the power machine moves: On November 30, they designate LGBT people in Russia ‘extremists' and on the night of December 1-2 -- police raids on Moscow queer parties and saunas, where they photograph passports, among other things," Facebook user Konstantin Kropotkin wrote in a post. "This is a ‘Sic ‘em' command to all scoundrels, those with power or without it…. It's an end-times feeling."

'Homophobic State Policy'

Many analysts agreed that the Supreme Court ruling, which satisfied a request from the Justice Ministry to impose the "extremist" designation, was an example of top-down policymaking and by no means a move by the state to respond to popular demand. It is Putin who rails on about gender identity in his diatribes against the West, while surveys and studies suggest these matters are low on the list of concerns for the majority of Russians.

Sociological research and opinion polls indicate that "if it were not for the endless homophobic, anti-trans, and gender-conservative messaging from the center, Russians would barely give a thought to these issues and would likely score lower on scales of traditionalism/social conservativism than the [United States], Poland, and even Ukraine," Jeremy Morris, a researcher at Aarhus University in Denmark who focuses on the former Soviet Union, wrote on his blog. He suggested Russia currently has an "active homophobic state policy."

"Recognizing LGBT as extremism is Russia's first step towards criminalizing deviations from the regime's ideology," political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya wrote on Twitter.

The Supreme Court ruling is inseparable from the context of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and former Kremlin speechwriter, had this explanation for the police raids and the ruling: "They are unable to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces, but they need victories -- so they went and found a foe they can handle."

At this particular moment, though, Putin may not be too worried about the war.

As winter sets in, a much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive is sputtering six months after it started, struggling to the point where The Washington Post feels comfortable stating as fact that it has "failed."

Ukraine's top military commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhniy, hasn't gone that far, but he made waves in Kyiv and beyond by saying that "like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate."

Winning And Losing

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has pushed back against such assessments. On Armed Forces Day in Kyiv, he told the country that "victory is ahead" and suggested that "against all odds" Ukraine will restore control over its borders.

But he was speaking hours before Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked the advance of a spending package that includes tens of billions of dollars in military and economic assistance to his country in a move that U.S. President Joe Biden called a "gift" to Putin.

"We can't let Putin win. It is in our overwhelming national interest," Biden said.

Putin is almost certain to win one thing in 2024: a new six-year term as president, in an election that is also inseparable from the context of the LGBT ruling.

The upper parliament house formally set the main date for the vote, March 17, and Putin is expected to confirm his candidacy this month. Given the tight state control over political levers and the media, the systematic crushing of the opposition, and the scope for cheating, if he does run, he cannot lose.

But in an interview with RFE/RL's Georgian Service, David Ignatius, an associate editor and foreign affairs columnist at The Washington Post, said Putin should not be too confident about the war.

"I think if you're Putin, you have to be pretty careful about making bets. He seems to think things are going his way. And…obviously, if you read Zaluzhniy's analysis, they haven't been going Ukraine's way," Ignatius said. "But there are a lot of problems ahead for Putin."

That's it from me this week.

If you want to know more, catch up on my podcast The Week Ahead In Russia, out every Monday, here on our site, or wherever you get your podcasts (Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts).

Yours,

Steve Gutterman