Iran
- By Ahto Lobjakas
EU: Patten Says Iran Entails One Of His 'Biggest Regrets'
The EU's outgoing external relations commissioner, Chris Patten, has said Iran's "backward movement" on human rights and unwillingness to fully meet UN nuclear demands constitute one of the biggest regrets of his career. Patten, who will step down at the end of October, made the remarks in a farewell talk to members of the European Parliament's foreign relations committee in Brussels yesterday. He also criticized the tough U.S. policy toward Iran, arguing that Iran must not be isolated.
Speaking in Brussels yesterday, Patten said Iran's lack of progress on a number of issues was one of the "biggest regrets" of his five years as commissioner.
Patten said the EU has long recognized Iran's great potential.
"Iran is a hugely important country regionally, and I think globally," he said. "[It is] the greatest pre-Islamic civilization in the region, a country with an exciting culture, a country terribly young -- 600,000 or 700,000 youngsters coming onto the job market every year. [It is] a country where, in my view, demography is unshakably on the same side as democracy."
But, he said, although the EU has tried very hard to bring Iran "out of the cold" and give it a larger -- and more "responsible" -- international role, Tehran has chosen to spurn the offer.
Patten said the EU has established what he called an "umbilical relationship" between trade concessions on the EU side, and social and political reforms -- and guarantees that nuclear power will be limited to civil purposes -- on the Iranian side.
Iran, he noted, has failed to honor its end of the bargain: "I'm sorry that that policy has gone backwards. As [a member of the European Parliament pointed out earlier], we've seen reverses, deeply concerning reverses in the human rights area. There have been one or two things that have gotten better -- for instance, the acceptance from time to time of visits by UN rapporteurs. But by and large, I'm pretty depressed by the lack of progress. And, of course, it doesn't make it easier that now, when we try to discuss human rights issues with Iranian officials, we have issues like Abu Ghurayb [prison abuse] shoved in our faces."
Patten went on to observe that pictures of U.S. troops abusing Iraqi prisoners had done considerable damage to the EU ideal of global human liberties.
Patten then asked rhetorically: "What should we [the West] do?"
Iran's deteriorating human rights record and other tensions with international law notwithstanding, Patten argued for continued engagement. Again, he made a barbed reference to the present U.S. administration.
"Do we simply walk away? Do we -- as one or two American spokesmen have suggested recently -- seek to isolate Iran and hope that sooner or later the Iranians will come to their senses? Well, that may give some people a warm glow, particularly during an election campaign," Patten said. "But I'm not sure that it can masquerade as a long-term policy."
Patten's indicated the EU is still offering Iran the same bargain as two years ago, when the twin-track dialogue on trade and political issues started: "I think that we do have to say to the Iranians that if they can satisfy the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] on nuclear issues, we are prepared to try to involve them to a greater extent internationally."
Patten said he hopes the United States can be brought to agree with the EU view, too.
Patten summarized his thoughts on Iran, saying that in the end, he believes that progress in the right direction is "inevitable."
More News
- By Todd Prince and
- Tony Wesolowsky
How Does Marco Rubio, Trump's Pick For Secretary Of State, See The World?
WASHINGTON -- President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Senator Marco Rubio to be his top diplomat as the incoming administration prepares to navigate an increasingly perilous world, with wars raging in Europe and the Middle East and competition heating up with China in the Asia-Pacific.
In choosing Rubio -- a senator known for taking a tough line on many foreign policy issues -- the president-elect is seeking someone who largely shares his views on the most pressing international topics, says Behnam Ben Taleblu, an analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
"Rubio is someone who has ideological and political alignment with Trump on several key national-security issues like great-power competition, countering China, countering the Islamic [Republic of] Iran, and reinstating the maximum-pressure campaign," Taleblu told RFE/RL.
In a wide-ranging interview last week with media before being tapped as secretary of state, Rubio said the decades-long period of unchallenged U.S. global dominance following the collapse of the Soviet Union had ended, replaced by a new Cold War-like era. He warned that the United States can't stretch itself too thin with global commitments, saying Washington must be "pragmatic" in its pursuits abroad.
"We're the most powerful [country], but we too have limited resources…so we have to invest both our time and our money on things that serve our core national interest," Rubio said in a November 7 interview with EWTN, a U.S.-based cable network.
Rubio, a Cuban-American, played an influential role in shaping Trump's policy on Venezuela during the latter's first term as president from 2017 to 2021. The New York Times described Rubio at the time as Trump's "virtual secretary of state for Latin America."
The three-time Florida senator, who challenged Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, comes to the job with ample foreign policy experience, having served on both the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee.
If ultimately confirmed by the Senate, Rubio, 53, would be the first Latino to serve as secretary of state.
And while Latin America will certainly be an important focus for Rubio, it will take a back seat to more pressing U.S. foreign policy concerns, namely China's global rise, Iran's threat to the Middle East, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Priority No. 1: China
When it comes to demands on U.S. military, political, and financial resources, Rubio wants the focus to be on China.
"I think the future of the 21st century is going to largely be defined by what happens in the Indo-Pacific. And I think China would love for us to be bogged down in Europe in a conflict and not focused on what's happening in the Indo-Pacific," Rubio said on November 7.
Rubio, who served as a co-chairman of the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China, has consistently advocated taking a hard line on China.
He led efforts to arm Taiwan, the self-governing democracy claimed by Beijing. He called for direct shipments of U.S. munitions and advanced military technologies in hopes of deterring China from attacking the island.
Rubio has also been vocal about Beijing's human rights record, pushed for a U.S. industrial policy to better compete with China, and backed tariffs on Chinese goods.
He sought to ban imports of Chinese goods made with forced labor by Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in western China and prevent China from circumventing Trump-era tariffs by relocating production to Mexico.
NATO And Ukraine
Rubio has repeatedly supported Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in its defensive war against Russia and described Ukrainians as "incredibly brave and strong."
In February 2022, immediately following Russia's full-scale invasion, he co-sponsored the NYET Act in the Senate, which aimed to "bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities" and impose sanctions on Russia.
However, Rubio has also said Russia's war against Ukraine has reached a "stalemate" and "needs to be brought to a conclusion."
He was among a minority of senators who, earlier this year, opposed a foreign-assistance bill that included $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. The bill eventually passed in April, bringing total U.S. aid to Ukraine since February 2022 to almost $175 billion -- about as much given by all of Europe combined.
Rubio has highlighted that imbalance, emphasizing that Washington should push Europe to take a larger role in handling its own security issues in order to allow the United States to prioritize challenging China in the Indo-Pacific.
In last week's interview with EWTN, Rubio said it was "unrealistic" to expect the United States to approve tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine every 10 months. He said European members of NATO need to step up their contributions to the alliance.
"Every day in our own country, [we are] grappling with [the question of] how do we provide assistance to Americans, even as we have these defense requirements that we're spending a lot of money on, and these [European NATO] countries are not making that choice," he said.
While Rubio sees Russia as a threat to U.S. security and backs Ukraine's sovereignty and independence, he said Kyiv will have to negotiate an end to the war. Rubio said Russia has just too many resources at its disposal, including weapons and men, to allow it to continue the fighting despite suffering extraordinary losses.
Iran: 'No Appeasement'
In the Middle East, Rubio has long taken a tough stand on Iran, describing its theocratic government as a "terrorist regime" for financing groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, both designated terrorist organizations by the United States.
As a senator, he was a fierce critic of U.S. President Barack Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which restricted Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions.
Critics of the deal argued it empowered Iran, offering too much relief from sanctions without guarantees it wouldn't someday produce a nuclear bomb. In 2018, Trump, who was then president, pulled the United States out of the deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
More recently, Rubio co-authored three bills punishing Iran that were signed into law this year. The bills authorize placing sanctions on Iranian oil exports and top Iranian leaders for human rights abuses, as well as foreign entities and governments supporting Hamas. An Iranian client, Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, triggering a regional war that threatens to engulf more states.
Rubio in September criticized the Biden administration for dragging its feet on enforcing the Iranian oil sanctions, which are aimed at crippling the government's finances. It has also failed to move forward on the human rights sanctions.
Depending on what the incoming administration is faced with in Iran when it takes office, analyst Taleblu says -- noting the volatile situation in the Middle East -- he would expect a Rubio-led State Department to make good on enforcement of the sanction bills.
A vocal supporter of Israel, Rubio has backed the country's right to defend itself from Iranian threats. Following Tehran's missile strikes on Israel on October 1, Rubio publicly backed an asymmetrical response.
Afghanistan
Rubio has also taken a hard line on the Taliban, arguing the militant Islamist group should be described as a "terrorist organization" by Washington. In March, the Florida senator introduced a bill in the Senate calling for an end to an end to U.S. aid to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, arguing that some of that money could end up with "terrorist groups."
In remarks to the Senate, Rubio said, "A Taliban-controlled Afghanistan poses a direct threat to U.S. national-security interests and to our allies in the Middle East and Central Asia."
Reid Standish contributed to this report
Activist Commits Suicide In Protest Over Arrests In Iran
Kianoosh Sanjari, a journalist and political activist, has committed suicide to protest numerous arrests and interrogations of himself and other political activists. A relative of Sanjari confirmed the news in an interview with RFE/RL on November 13. Friends of Sanjari also confirmed his death in posts on X. Since returning to Tehran in 2015 to care for his elderly mother, Sanjari was repeatedly summoned and arrested by the security and intelligence agencies of the Islamic republic. Hours before committing suicide, Sanjari announced his decision to end his life on X. After an ultimatum demanding the Iranian government release four activists and journalists by a specified time was not met, Sanjari tweeted again: "My life will end after this tweet but let's not forget that we die for the love of life, not death. I wish that one day Iranians will wake up and overcome slavery." To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
- By RFE/RL
FBI Arrests Alleged Leaker Of U.S. Intelligence Related To Israel's Attack Plans Against Iran
The U.S. Justice Department has charged a man for allegedly leaking highly classified U.S. intelligence about Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran, according to U.S. media reports on November 13. The reports said that Asif W. Rahman was indicted earlier this month for willfully transmitting national defense information. He was arrested on November 12 in Cambodia by the FBI and was to appear in court in Guam. Court documents indicate that he was employed by the U.S. government. According to a person familiar with his employment, he was employed by the CIA. This employment gave him a top-secret security clearance and allowed him to access sensitive information. The New York Times, which first reported the story, said that Rahman was indicted on a charge related to the posting of the intelligence on Telegram in mid-October. The documents posted included Israeli plans for moving munitions and Israeli Air Force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles.
- By RFE/RL
Iran Says It's Confident Oil Exports Will Continue Despite Trump Election
Iran says it has measures in place to ensure it will continue producing and exporting oil even if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Tehran once he takes office in January.
During his first term in office in 2017-21, Trump withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and reimposed sanctions as part of his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran.
As a result, Iran’s oil production dropped from 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.1 million bpd, while its exports plummeted to between 200,000 and 500,000 bpd from 2.5 million bpd.
But both production and exports have picked up in recent years despite U.S. sanctions, with Iran’s oil output reaching around 3.2m bpd. Exports, meanwhile, have hit a multiyear high of 1.7 million bpd.
Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad told reporters on November 13 that Iran has mechanisms in place “to continue selling our oil” regardless of who is in power in the United States.
“We have tried-and-tested methods and don’t have serious concerns about [selling oil],” he said, according to Iranian state-aligned media.
Without offering details, the oil minister said, “necessary measures have been taken by our colleagues in the oil sector in preparation for what is to come and there is no reason to worry.”
Trump is expected to launch a new-look "maximum pressure" campaign against the Islamic republic once he takes office on January 20, 2025.
Iran boosted its oil sales by circumventing sanctions through a variety of means, exporting mostly to China, which does not recognize U.S. measures against Iran.
The tactic involves the ship-to-ship transfer of oil, middlemen, clandestine money transfers, and the rebranding of the oil to mask its Iranian origin.
Iranian crude makes up about 13 percent of oil imports by China, the world's biggest purchaser of the commodity. Beijing says the purchases conform to international law.
Netanyahu Tells Iranians Another Attack On Israel Will 'Cripple' Their Economy
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says another attack on Israel would paralyze the Islamic republic's economy and cost billions of dollars that could be spent to the benefit of ordinary Iranians. In his second video addressed directly to Iranians in the last two months, which was released in English with Farsi subtitles on November 12, Netanyahu said that Iran's October 1 missile attack cost it $2.3 billion dollars, "valuable money that the Islamic republic wasted" as the "damage of that attack on Israel was insignificant." He added that the Iranian government is "obsessed" with the destruction of Israel but its theocracy fears its own people more than Israel. Neither the people of Israel nor ordinary Iranians want war, he said. Some analysts said the video could be a warning that if Iran were to attack again, Israel would hit back hard in an attempt to cause major damage to Iran's economy. There was no immediate reaction to the video from Iran. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
Targeted Activist Calls Failure Of Iranian Assassination Plot 'Pleasing'
Iranian-American human rights activist Masih Alinejad says she derives joy from the failure of alleged plots by the Islamic republic to kidnap and assassinate her.
The U.S. Justice Department on November 8 unsealed criminal charges that include details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill Alinejad and President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election. Iran has rejected the allegation.
"When the Islamic republic is defeated, disgraced, and embarrassed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI], it has no choice but to deny," Alinejad, 48, said in comments to RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, or head scarf, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021. In 2022 a man was also arrested with a rifle outside her home.
“The Islamic republic has been disgraced three times…. The humiliation of [Iranian authorities] is truly pleasing,” she said.
The FBI informed Alinejad of the suspected Iranian plot to kill her shortly before the court documents were unsealed, she said, recalling that she was "shocked" to learn about the details.
Two men arrested by the FBI were planning to target Alinejad at Fairfield University in Connecticut, where she was scheduled to appear.
The Justice Department alleges the two men spent months surveilling Alinejad and earlier this year traveled to the university campus and took photos of the premises.
"It is shocking how brazenly the Islamic republic can savagely plan to assassinate someone in another country," Alinejad said.
Iran has long been accused of targeting dissidents abroad, either to kidnap them or kill them.
Rights groups say exiled opposition activist Ruhollah Zam was abducted in 2019 before being executed in Iran a year later.
In 2020, Tehran said it had arrested Iranian-German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd and later sentenced him to death. Sharmahd's family insists he was kidnapped while through the United Arab Emirates. Iranian authorities claim Sharmahd died in prison last month before being executed.
Alinejad, who is visiting Germany and recently met with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said her message to Germany, the United States, and all Western countries is to "protect your borders and democracy instead of protecting me so that the Islamic republic's terrorists can't enter and plot assassinations on Western soil."
She said symbolic gestures by the West in support of Iranian protesters and dissidents "is not enough" to dissuade Iranian authorities from targeting critics abroad. Instead, she argued, severing diplomatic ties and "extensive support" for protesters inside Iran would be more effective.
Written based on an interview by Nasrin Afshar of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By RFE/RL
Saudi Armed Forces General Travels to Iran In Rare High-Level Visit
The general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia's armed forces, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, met his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Baqeri, in Tehran during a rare visit on November 10.
Iran's official IRNA news agency said they discussed the development of defense diplomacy and bilateral cooperation without offering any details.
Iranian media said Baqeri had discussed regional developments and defense cooperation with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman al-Saud last year.
Ruwaili is only the second high-profile Saudi official to travel to Tehran since Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations after seven years following Chinese-brokered talks in March 2023. Previously, Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June 2023.
Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia severed ties with Shi'a-dominated Iran in 2016 after its diplomatic compounds in Tehran and Mashhad were attacked by protesters over Riyadh's execution of Shi'ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
The trip comes days after the election of Donald Trump, whose second term as U.S. president begins in January. He has pledged to bring peace to the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the timing of the trip was significant because it comes as various countries are preparing for a second Trump presidency.
He said the Saudis' decision to send their top military official to Tehran "is a signal that they are committed" to the detente process that started last year and that "they don't want Trump's election to jeopardize the recently improving relations with Iran."
Separately, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman on the phone and discussed expanding bilateral relations, according to Pezeshkian's office.
Trump had good relations with Persian Gulf Arab states in his first tenure in office and worked on normalizing relations between Arab states and Iran's archfoe, Israel.
Saudi Arabia has not normalized relations with Israel but Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is said to have discussed the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia since 2021.
In another sign of warming relations, Saudi Arabia announced last month that it held military drills with Iran in the Sea of Oman.
- By Reuters
UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief To Visit Iran On November 13
UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi will visit Iran on November 13 and start consultations with Iranian officials the following day, state media reported on November 10. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last week that he might head to Iran in the coming days to discuss its disputed nuclear program and that he expected to work cooperatively with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Long-standing issues between Iran, the IAEA, and Western powers include Tehran barring several uranium-enrichment experts from IAEA inspection teams in the country and its failure for years to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Iran has also stepped up nuclear activity since 2019, after then-President Trump abandoned a 2015 deal Iran reached with world powers under which it curbed enrichment -- seen by the West as a disguised effort to develop nuclear weapons capability -- and restored tough U.S. sanctions on the Islamic republic.
- By Reuters
Iranian Foreign Minister Denies Plot To Kill Trump
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi denied U.S. charges that Tehran was linked to an alleged plot to kill Donald Trump and called on November 9 for confidence-building between the two hostile countries. "A new scenario is fabricated....As a killer does not exist in reality, scriptwriters are brought in to manufacture a third-rate comedy," Araqchi said in a post on X. He was referring to an alleged plot Washington said was ordered by Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to assassinate Trump, who won the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and takes office in January.
- By AFP
Iran Urges Trump To Change 'Maximum Pressure' Policy
Iran signaled an openness toward Donald Trump on November 9, calling on the U.S. president-elect to adopt new policies toward it after Washington accused Tehran of involvement in a plot to kill him. Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Trump to reassess the policy of "maximum pressure" he employed against the Islamic republic during his first term. "Trump must show that he is not following the wrong policies of the past," Zarif told reporters. His remarks came after the United States accused Iran of conspiring to assassinate Trump. The Foreign Ministry on November 9 described the American accusations as "totally unfounded."
After Iranian Student Jailed For Stripping, London Activist Shows Solidarity In Her Underwear (Video)
A university student in Tehran was detained and sent to a psychiatric ward after stripping down to her underwear in public. In a demonstration of support, activist Rokhsareh Mohammad Khani took similar action in London, filming herself in minimal clothing in a central square. Khani said she wanted to highlight the extreme nature of Iran's dress code and the penalties it imposes on women.
- By RFE/RL
Court Documents Allege Iranian-Backed Plot To Assassinate Trump, Dissidents
The U.S. Justice Department on November 8 unsealed criminal charges that include details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election.
A criminal complaint filed in federal court in New York City alleges that an unnamed official in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) instructed a contact to develop a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, the Justice Department said in a news release.
Three men, including an Iranian national, were charged in the criminal complaint in connection with their alleged involvement in a separate plot to murder a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin.
Two of the three men -- Carlisle Rivera, 49, and Jonathon Loadholt, 36, both of New York City -- made an initial appearance in court on November 7 and were ordered detained pending trial, the department said.
The third man, identified as Farjad Shakeri, remains at large and is believed to be in Iran.
"The charges announced today expose Iran's continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders, and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran," FBI Director Christopher Wray said in the news release.
The IRGC "has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won't be tolerated," he added.
Shakeri allegedly recruited Rivera and Loadhold to follow and kill a prominent Iranian-American. The target was not named in the news release or in court documents but appears to be dissident journalist Masih Alinejad.
Alinejad said on X that she was shocked to have learned of the plot from the FBI.
"I also learned that the person assigned to assassinate @realDonaldTrump was also assigned to kill me on U.S. soil," she said on X, calling on Trump to be tough on terrorism. "The Islamic Republic understands only one language: the language of pressure," she said.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021, and in 2022 a man was arrested with a rifle outside her home.
The Justice Department said Shakeri was an IRGC "asset" who immigrated to the United States as a child and was deported around 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for robbery.
According to the criminal complaint, Shakeri allegedly disclosed the plot to assassinate Trump in telephone conversations with FBI agents in recent months.
Shakeri spoke with FBI agents because he was hoping to obtain a sentence reduction for a person who is imprisoned in the United States, the court document said.
Shakeri told the FBI he was approached by an IRGC official about organizing the assassination of Trump. He planned to use a network of criminal associates he met in prison, including Loadholt and Rivera, to supply the IRGC with operatives to conduct surveillance and assassinations of IRGC targets, the Justice Department said.
Shakeri promised to pay $100,000 in the murder-for-hire plot described in the document in which Alinejad appears to be the target.
The IRGC also tasked Shakeri with carrying out other assassinations of U.S. and Israeli citizens located in the United States, according to the press release.
"In particular, Shakeri has informed law enforcement that he was tasked on October 7, 2024, with providing a plan to kill President-elect Donald J. Trump," the Justice Department said.
Shakeri was unable to draft a plan within the time span requested by the IRGC official, and the official then told him Iran would pause its plan until after the presidential election because the official believed Trump would lose and it would be easier to assassinate him afterward, the criminal complaint said.
The United States has repeatedly accused Iran of seeking to assassinate U.S. officials in retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who died in a U.S. military drone strike in Iraq in 2020.
In his first term as president, Trump withdrew the United States from an international nuclear agreement negotiated between Iran and nuclear powers, imposed new sanctions on the country, and classified the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Shakeri, Rivera, and Loadholt have all been charged with murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; and money-laundering conspiracy, which carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
Shakeri faces additional charges related to terrorism.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, AFP, and dpa
The Azadi Briefing: What Will Trump's Election Victory Mean For Afghanistan?
Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
The unrecognized Taliban government in Afghanistan said it wants to open a “new chapter” with the United States following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election.
In a statement, the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped the “upcoming U.S. administration will take realistic steps to foster tangible progress in the relationship between the two countries.”
During his first stint in power from 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration signed a deal with the Taliban that paved the way for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
The agreement ended America’s longest-ever war. But critics said the accord led to the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power.
During the campaign, Trump defended the 2020 accord as a “very good agreement.” But he blamed President Joe Biden for the deadly and chaotic U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.
Why It's Important: Trump’s return to the White House is likely to have repercussions for Afghanistan, where the world’s largest humanitarian crisis is unfolding.
The United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid to the country, having provided around $3 billion since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. There has been a major drop in donor funding over the past two years.
“The sharp decline in humanitarian funding seems likely to worsen under a Trump presidency,” said Graeme Smith, senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Hameed Hakimi of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said Trump could place conditions on U.S. aid, a move that would “increase the financial and humanitarian vulnerability of the Afghan people.”
Experts said it is unlikely that the incoming Trump administration would reverse current U.S. policy by arming anti-Taliban groups inside Afghanistan or recognizing the Taliban’s government.
“The Republicans will do everything possible to keep Afghanistan out of the headlines,” said Smith.
What's Next: Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority for the Trump administration.
But a major attack on the United States or its allies emanating from Afghan soil could change that.
What To Keep An Eye On
An Indian diplomat traveled to Kabul for talks with senior Taliban officials on November 4-5.
The Taliban’s defense and foreign ministers held meetings with JP Singh, who oversees the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division of India’s External Affairs Ministry.
“Both sides declared their common desire” to expand bilateral relations, mainly in humanitarian cooperation, said a statement by the Taliban’s Defense Ministry.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the two sides also discussed “how the Chabahar Port can be used for imports and exports.”
Over the past two decades, India has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port and built a highway linking it to western Afghanistan.
In March, the Taliban announced that it would invest around $35 million in Chabahar Port, a move aimed at decreasing landlocked Afghanistan's dependence on neighboring Pakistan.
Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan, longtime allies, have deteriorated sharply in recent years.
Why It's Important: Singh’s visit to Afghanistan signals New Delhi’s interest in developing relations with the Taliban.
India was a key backer of the Western-backed Afghan government. But since the Taliban’s return to power, it has signaled a willingness to cooperate with the extremist group.
The Taliban’s tense relations with Pakistan has offered India an opportunity to boost its influence in Kabul.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
- By Kian Sharifi
Will Trump's Election Trigger An Iran Policy Of 'Maximum Pressure 2.0'?
Before the U.S. presidential election, Iran dismissed the vote as irrelevant.
But former President Donald Trump’s stunning victory on November 5 could have major ramifications for Tehran, experts say.
During his first stint in power, Trump ramped up pressure on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs and imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran.
Iran will “have to contemplate radical changes in its foreign policy and national security…in order to stave off bigger crises that could come as a consequence of a [second] Trump presidency,” said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
'Maximum Pressure 2.0'
From 2017-2021, the Trump administration pursued a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
Trump withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
Trump’s return to the White House could see a policy of “maximum pressure 2.0,” said Sabet, adding that the aim could be “containment and regime weakening.”
Sabet said Trump could try to devise “a kind of policy in perpetuity” on Iran that would be difficult to undo by future U.S. administrations.
In a sign of what is to come, Brian Hook, who oversaw the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, is expected to lead the president-elect’s transition team at the State Department. U.S. media reported that Hook could be considered for the role of secretary of state.
During the campaign, Trump sent mixed messages on Iran. He threatened to blow the country to “smithereens” but also said he was open to talks with Tehran. Trump also said he wants Iran to be “successful,” although he added that Tehran “can't have a nuclear weapon.”
Sabet said Iran has grown more adept at evading U.S. sanctions since Trump’s first term and its nuclear program has become more advanced following the abrogation of the nuclear deal.
But experts say Iran will still feel the bite of tougher U.S. policies. The Iranian economy is in free fall, while the clerical establishment has faced growing domestic unrest and threats from archenemy Israel.
The Israeli Factor
Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks in recent months that have raised fears of an all-out regional war.
The tit-for-tat attacks have come as Israel fights a multifront war against Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Trump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a free hand” to confront Iran.
Trump has a close relationship with Netanyahu, who was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the president-elect.
During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reversing decades of U.S. policy. He also moved the U.S. embassy to the contested city.
Sabet said Iran’s “security situation is rapidly deteriorating vis-à-vis Israel with possible further involvement of the U.S.”
The View From Iran
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on November 7 that Trump's election victory “makes no difference” to Tehran, which has “prioritized developing relations with Islamic and neighboring countries.”
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei said Iran had “bitter experiences with various U.S. governments' past policies and approaches.” But he added that Trump’s return to the White House was a chance “to review previous wrong policies.”
Some conservative Iranian lawmakers and media outlets have done little to hide their disdain for Trump.
Hard-line lawmaker Malek Shariati wrote “death to Trump” on X on November 6 before taking down his post. The conservative Hamshahri newspaper decried “the return of the murderer,” alluding to Trump’s role in Soleimani’s assassination.
Others have urged Iranian decision-makers to consider negotiating with Trump, especially as the reformist Pezeshkian pledged to engage the West when he took office in July.
Tehran-based political analyst Hamid Asefi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that some critics of the clerical establishment hope that Trump will help topple the Islamic republic. But he said that was “wishful thinking” because his Iran policy has never been about regime change.
“Many politicians and analysts in Iran now believe Tehran can easily strike a deal with Trump, as he is a dealmaker,” he added.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this story
Israel Sends Planes To Evacuate Soccer Fans After 'Willful Attack' In Amsterdam
Israel sent several chartered planes to Amsterdam to bring back Israeli soccer fans after they were attacked following a match on November 7 by what Mayor Femke Halsema described as "anti-Semitic hit-and-run squads."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the incidents "anti-Semitic attacks" as his office announced that the Israeli airlines El Al and Israir have set up special flights for free on November 8 and 9 to do the job.
El Al said it was sending six planes to bring the fans home, and Israeli airport authorities said later on November 8 that the first plane had landed.
Amsterdam police said that 62 people were detained following the violence, with 10 in custody on November 8 in connection with the clashes -- which left five people hospitalized -- in the center of Amsterdam between young locals and Israeli supporters who had come to watch Maccabi Tel Aviv's game against Ajax Amsterdam in the Europa League competition.
"This is a very dark moment for the city, for which I am deeply ashamed," Halsema told a news conference. "Anti-Semitic criminals attacked and assaulted visitors to our city, in hit-and-run actions," she said.
Dutch authorities said there was no concrete threat to Israeli soccer fans before the game and that it was not clear how or precisely when the violence began.
Peter Holla, the city's acting police chief, told a news conference that the Israeli fans were "willfully attacked."
U.S. President Joe Biden condemned "anti-Semitic" violence against Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam, calling the attacks "despicable" throwbacks to dark moments in history.
"The anti-Semitic attacks on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam are despicable and echo dark moments in history when Jews were persecuted," Biden said on X.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, and other world leader joined Biden in condemning the violence.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attacks as "vile" and said she discussed them with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.
"Outraged by last night's vile attacks targeting Israeli citizens in Amsterdam," von der Leyen said in a post on X. "I strongly condemn these unacceptable acts. Antisemitism has absolutely no place in Europe. And we are determined to fight all forms of hatred."
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar flew to Amsterdam for impromptu meetings with the Dutch government and far-right leader Geert Wilders, and Amsterdam banned demonstrations for three days.
Police said fans had left the stadium on November 7 without incident after the game was won 5-0 by Ajax, but various clashes in the city center were reported during the night.
Video posted online also purported to show Israeli fans chanting anti-Arab slogans in the streets ahead of the game.
Maccabi fans are known to have used similar chants in Israel at recent matches there.
Earlier, a pro-Palestinian protest against Maccabi's visit scheduled to take place near the stadium was banned by Dutch authorities for security reasons amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Anti-Israeli protests have been held in various parts of the world, including in Western Europe amid Israel's war in the Gaza Strip against Iran-backed Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the EU, following the group's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people.
The conflict has spilled outside of Gaza and into southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Schoof said he was "horrified" by the incidents. which he called "completely unacceptable." He said he told Netanyahu that those who are guilty would be "identified and prosecuted."
Netanyahu told Schoof that he "views the premeditated anti-Semitic attack against Israeli citizens with the utmost seriousness and requested increased security for the Jewish community in the Netherlands," the Israeli prime minister's office said.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he had talked to Dutch King Willem-Alexander on the phone, who had voiced "deep horror and shock over the criminal acts committed."
The Israeli Embassy in the United States said on X that "hundreds" of Maccabi fans were "ambushed and attacked in Amsterdam tonight as they left the stadium following a game against Ajax."
"The mob who targeted these innocent Israelis has proudly shared their violent acts on social media," the embassy said in its message accompanied by a video of violent clashes in the city.
Israel also said it had banned members of its military from traveling to the Netherlands.
What Can The World Expect From Trump 2.0?
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump made big promises about what would be in store if he reclaimed the White House.
"With your support, we'll bring back our nation's strength, dominance, prosperity and pride," Trump said two weeks before Election Day. "This will be America's new golden age."
Now that Trump has won a second term as president, what might be expected from his incoming administration?
The answer to that question depends a lot on who you ask. Trump's supporters believe he will "make America great again," at home and abroad. His detractors have warned that Trump will undermine democracy in the United States.
War And Peace
The way the United States exerts its influence around the world is likely to change.
Trump has said he could end Russia's war in Ukraine "in 24 hours." With Israel involved in a two-front war in the Middle East against Iranian-backed armed groups, Trump has called on Israel to "finish the job."
Peter Skerry, professor of political science at Boston College, said he expects Trump to "push for some sort of settlement" between Moscow and Kyiv that he predicted will "mean big concessions on the part of Ukraine."
What Trump will do regarding Israel is much less clear, Skerry says, but he said that "he'll be extremely supportive of Israel" while at the same time trying to revive the Abraham Accords that aim for Arab-Israeli normalization.
China, with which Trump launched a trade war during his first term in office, is a wild card. Trump has pledged to introduce more steep tariffs on products made in China if Beijing were to "go into Taiwan."
He has previously said he would not have to use U.S. military force to prevent a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan due to his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Global Footprint
In his four years as president, Trump pushed for NATO members to meet their required levels of defense spending, goals that most have since met.
Trump also oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the UN cultural body UNESCO, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, the Iran nuclear deal worked out with world powers, the Paris Agreement on mitigating the effects of climate change, and withheld funding for the World Health Organization due to its response to the coronavirus outbreak.
The outgoing Biden administration made a point to restore U.S. influence in such agreements and institutions, but now many predict another reversal under Trump.
Skerry said Trump is a "single-minded, self-interested actor" who is focused on domestic issues. It would not be surprising to see Trump "get back on the track" of limiting Washington's role in some global institutions, he said.
Keith Naughton, co-founder of the U.S.-based public-affairs firm Silent Majority Strategies, said that "Trump will want to go it alone more." But he added that the U.S. Congress was unlikely "to go along" and will put up resistance.
Payback Time
Trump has frequently lashed out against his political adversaries, referring to them as the "enemy from within" and suggesting they could "very easily handled" by the military in the event of postelection chaos.
The comments led outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris, who ran and lost against Trump, to say just before the vote that Trump was "obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, and out for unchecked power."
At home, the U.S. judicial system is one area where Trump is expected to clean house, in large part owing to multiple criminal cases related to his first term, including regarding alleged election interference and attempts to derail the transfer of power following his 2020 election loss.
Trump has also said that he would "absolutely" pardon his supporters imprisoned for their role in the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol in a failed attempt to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden's victory.
More broadly, many predict Trump will use "Project 2025" -- an initiative conceived by the right-wing Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington to "take down the deep state" -- as a template for his policies.
Trump distanced himself from Project 2025 during his campaign, claiming he did not know who was behind it, but investigations have found that at least 140 people who worked in the previous Trump administration are involved.
"Trump likes to talk tough, but rarely follows through," Naughton said. "Any retribution will be haphazard and from staff members. I think there will be a lot of changes at the Department of Justice."
- By RFE/RL
Trump Wins U.S. Presidency: Reactions From Our Region
Our teams bring you the latest updates, reactions, and insights into what the U.S. elections mean for our audiences. With Russia's war on Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and a decline in democratic values, the outcome of these elections will reverberate far beyond U.S. borders.
Iranian Scholar Calls Psych Ward Admission Of Woman Who Disrobed In Protest 'Illegal'
Iranian religious scholar and civil activist Sedigheh Vasmaghi said there is no legal basis for admitting a young woman into psychiatric care because she took her clothes off in apparent protest against harassment outside her Tehran university.
"Even if someone suffers from mental health disorders, diagnosing that is not up to judicial authorities or the police, not to mention that admitting someone into a psychiatric facility should not be a punishment," Vasmaghi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda on November 5.
"Punishments need to be legal…. Whoever [admitted her] has committed an illegal act," said Vasmaghi, who lives in Iran.
Videos emerged on social media on November 2 showing a young woman stripped to her underwear and walking around outside a university in Tehran.
The circumstances that led to her taking off her clothes remain unclear, but witnesses say she was harassed by the university's security officers over what she had been wearing. One video showed officers violently forcing the unidentified woman into a car.
Reports in Iranian media later alleged she was suffering from mental illness and that she was taken to a psychiatric hospital.
Rights groups have condemned her treatment and demanded her immediate release.
Amnesty International on November 3 said, "Pending her release, authorities must protect her from torture & other ill-treatment & ensure access to family & lawyer."
The Oslo-based Iran Human Rights on November 4 decried what it described as the Islamic republic's use of "psychiatric hospitals as tools of repression to delegitimize acts of protest and silence dissenting voices."
Echoing the same sentiment, Vasmaghi said Iranian authorities had a track record of sending protesters to psychiatric wards to "belittle and punish" them.
"Women have made their decision and they will not retreat" from demanding the freedom to choose how to dress, the activist said.
"The authorities must accept that and stop doing things that increase tensions in society," she added.
Written by Kian Sharifi based on an interview by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Iran Sentences 3 To Death Over Assassination Of Nuclear Scientist
Iran's judiciary says three people have been sentenced to death by a lower court over the killing in 2020 of Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in what Tehran says was an Israeli-orchestrated operation.
"The sentencing of these three people was carried out in the Revolutionary Court of Urmia, and they were sentenced to death in the initial stage, and the case is currently in the appeal stage," Asghar Jahangir, a spokesman for Iran's judiciary, said at a news conference in Tehran.
Urmia is a town In Iran's northwestern province of West Azerbaijan close to the border with Turkey.
The sentencing of the three, who have not been named, comes at a time of rising tensions between Iran and Israel amid the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
Israel has been blamed for the assassination of at least four other Iranian nuclear scientists suspected of working on Tehran's military nuclear program.
Fakhrizadeh, known as the father of the Islamic republic's nuclear program, had been under U.S. sanctions for his role in Iran's nuclear research and Israel accused him in 2018 of being the architect of Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
"After some investigations, three out of eight people arrested in West Azerbaijan province were accused of spying for the occupying regime of Israel," Jahangir said, adding that the case is now in the "appeal stage."
The three were also accused of bringing unspecified equipment from abroad into Iran for the attack "under the guise of smuggling alcoholic drinks."
Jahangir said the case against the other defendants is still ongoing.
Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in a brazen ambush of his vehicle in the town of Absard, near Tehran on November 27, 2020, which Iran at the time blamed on Israel while suggesting the United States also had an indirect or direct role.
The circumstances of the attack remain unclear. Initial reports immediately after the killing suggested Fakhrizadeh was targeted by a truckful of explosives, several gunmen, and a suicide attacker.
Just days later, the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) offered a different account, saying a machine gun equipped with a "satellite-controlled smart system" that employed "artificial intelligence" was used in the pinpointed killing of the scientist that left his wife, who was traveling with him, unharmed.
Israel has not commented on Fakhrizadeh's killing.
Tehran Says German-Iranian Died Before Execution Could Be Carried Out
Iran's judiciary says a dual German-Iranian national sentenced to death on terror charges died while in prison and was not executed, as previously reported by local media.
Reports from state media that Jamshid Sharmahd was executed surfaced on October 28, sparking a diplomatic row with Berlin that saw Germany shut all three of Iran's consulates in the European nation.
However, Asghar Jahangir, a spokesman for the judiciary, contradicted the reports on November 5, saying a judicial statement on the issue was misquoted as it did not specifically say the death sentence had been carried out. No details on Sharmahd's death were given.
"There was no deadline for the execution of Sharmahd's sentence, he died before the execution of the death sentence," Asghar Jahangir said.
Sharmahd, 69, was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran believes was behind a deadly 2008 bombing and of planning other attacks in the country.
He was in Dubai and heading to India for a business trip when he went missing for several days before Tehran announced it had taken Sharmahd into custody and brought back to Iran.
Fourteen Iranians were killed and 210 others wounded in the attack at the Sayyid al-Shuhada Husseiniya mosque in Shiraz during a ceremony to mourn the death of Imam Hussein, the third imam of Shi'a Muslims.
Iran's Intelligence Ministry accused Sharmahd, who lived in Glendora, California, of planning the bombing, a charge his family dismissed as "ridiculous."
In reaction to the reports of Sharmahd's execution, the European Union put out a statement "strongly" condemning the punishment and accusing Iran of having "illegally" abducting the software engineer, holding him for years "under inhumane conditions without a fair trial."
Western governments and rights groups have long accused Iran of detaining dual citizens to use them as bargaining chips against the West.
Iranian Foreign Minister In Pakistan To Discuss Ties, Middle East
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has arrived in Islamabad at the start of a two-day official visit during which he will hold talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and other officials, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry announced on November 5. Araghchi and the Pakistani officials will discuss improving bilateral ties and the current crisis in the Middle East, the Ministry said in a statement. The visit also "provides an important opportunity to advance cooperation and dialogue between Pakistan and Iran on a wide range of areas including trade, energy and security," the statement said. Iran and Israel are currently engaged in a standoff, with Tehran threatening to launch another retaliatory strike in response to an Israeli attack on October 26 that targeted Iranian military facilities. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal, click here.
Stripping In Protest? Amnesty Calls for Immediate Release Of Iranian Woman (Video)
Amnesty International has called for the immediate release of a young woman who was arrested after stripping to her underwear outside her Tehran university on November 2. In a statement, Amnesty said "allegations of beatings and sexual violence against her during arrest need independent and impartial investigations." Footage of the incident has been widely shared on social media.
Jewish Man Executed In Iran For Murder He Said Was In Self-Defense
Iran, at a time of rising tensions with Israel, has executed a Jewish man who was convicted of murder, a charge his family rejected saying he acted in self- defense after being attacked.
The Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, quoted Hamidreza Karimi, the prosecutor of the western Iranian city of Kermanshah, as saying Arvin Ghahremani, 23, was executed on November 4.
Ghahremani, 18 at the time, was found guilty of stabbing another man to death in 2022 outside a gym in Kermanshah. The victim had owed money to Ghahremani and, according to his family, an altercation broke out over the dispute.
The victim was armed and Ghahremani acted in self-defense, they said, saying he even tried to help keep the victim alive after the altercation.
After being sentenced to death, Ghahrmani's lawyers failed to get the family of the Muslim victim, whose identity was not revealed, to pardon him and spare his life.
Islamic legislation provides for qisas, or equivalent punishment, in murder cases.
However, rights groups have long said that the law discriminates against non-Muslims, who often receive harsher punishments than Muslims convicted of similar offenses.
Ghahremani's lawyers had requested a retrial three different times, but each motion was rejected by Iranian courts.
The Norway-based Iran Human Rights group condemned the execution of Ghahremani, who the group said was 20 years old, not 23.
The group also disputed Ghahremani's guilt, saying he had been attacked with a knife by the victim. It also said that the victim's family initially agreed to spare Ghahremani but changed their mind after finding out he was Jewish.
"Arvin was a Jew, and the institutionalized anti-Semitism in the Islamic republic undoubtedly played a crucial role in the implementation of his sentence," IHR Director Mahmood Amiri-Moghadam said in a statement, adding that the case had "significant flaws."
Jews are a small minority estimated at some 20,000 in Iran, a mainly Shi'ite Muslim nation of nearly 92 million people. Many Jews fled Iran in the aftermath of Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 as the new regime adopted a sharp anti-Israel stance, including not recognizing Israel's right to exist.
Israel and Iran's proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip have been fighting a war over the past year since one of the groups, Hamas, invaded Israel and killed some 1,200 people in an unprovoked attack.
The group, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, also took around 240 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.
- By Kian Sharifi
How Will The U.S. Election Impact Washington's Iran Policy?
The U.S. presidential election on November 5 will probably have a major bearing on Washington’s policy toward Iran.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is likely to continue President Joe Biden’s diplomacy-focused policies, experts say.
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, adopted a policy of “maximum pressure” during his first stint in office and is more likely to embrace a hawkish position, analysts say.
Harris's Calculated Toughness?
In early October, Harris raised eyebrows when she described Iran as Washington’s “greatest adversary” ahead of Russia and China.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said her comments should not be taken at face value. Harris said “what she had to say” for the sake of domestic U.S. policies and to appease the pro-Israel lobby.
Harris’s campaign wants to “position her somewhat to Trump’s right on issues like Iran,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
“Harris is likely to continue Biden's approach, pursuing diplomacy without offering large concessions and remaining wary of doing too much and triggering domestic political backlash,” Brew said.
Experts say the conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is engaged in a war with Iran-backed armed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, could lead to Harris devising a more aggressive policy toward Tehran.
Diplomacy with Tehran will remain an option under a Harris presidency, experts say, but any negotiations would likely be centered on regional affairs rather than Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump To Opt For Dialogue Or Detachment?
During his stint in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
But it is unclear if Trump would adopt a hawkish policy toward Iran if reelected, experts say, noting the former president’s unpredictability.
During the campaign, Trump suggested without evidence that Iran was involved in recent attempted assassinations against him and threatened to blow the country “to smithereens.”
But Trump has also said on the campaign trail that he is open to talks with Iran, including over the nuclear deal.
Under a Trump presidency, there would likely be less scope for or interest in diplomacy with Tehran, said Brew.
Brew said there is “a greater willingness to tolerate military action against Iran” among Republicans, particularly in the wake of Israel’s first overt attack on Iran on October 26. But the odds of the United States getting involved in a war with Iran remain low.
“It's difficult for me to see a large war being planned at this moment in American history by any American president,” Vatanka said.
Vatanka said Iran could be more willing to talk to Trump because it may “find it easier to deal” with the former president and entice him “by appealing to his ego.”
Overall, American policy toward Iran would be more reflective of “mainstream American thinking and institutional decision-making consensus” under Harris, Vatanka said, whereas under Trump it would be “more of the inkling and the gut feeling of one man.”
Amnesty Calls For Release Of Iranian Woman Who Removed Clothes In Protest
Amnesty International has called for the immediate release of a young woman who took most of her clothes off during an apparent protest against harassment outside her Tehran university on November 2.
Iranian authorities arrested the female student -- who has not been identified -- after she stripped to her underwear on the street outside the university.
Video footage was first posted by an Iranian student channel, the Amir Kabir newsletter, and then later by the Hengaw rights group, Amnesty International, and others.
“Pending her release, authorities must protect her from torture & other ill-treatment & ensure access to family & lawyer." Amnesty said.
"Allegations of beatings & sexual violence against her during arrest need independent & impartial investigations," it added. "Those responsible must held to account.”
To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
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