Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip degraded the fighting capabilities of Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group.
But the militant group remains the dominant power in the Palestinian enclave, despite suffering heavy losses during 15 months of Israeli bombardment.
“Hamas is gradually taking back control even if it is very much diminished,” said Nimrod Goren, head of the Jerusalem-based Mitvim Institute.
Israel had pledged to continue its war in Gaza until it eliminated Hamas. But the sides agreed a cease-fire and hostage-exchange deal on January 15.
Hamas carried out an attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry, destroyed much of its infrastructure, and displaced most of its 2.3 million residents.
Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, lost most of its political and military leadership during the war. Its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in a suspected Israeli attack in Iran in July. His successor, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in October.
Israel claims that it killed up to 20,000 Hamas fighters during the war, a figure contested by the militant group, which has not said how many of its members were killed.
No Alternatives
Despite its losses, Hamas has retained its tight grip on power in Gaza.
“Hamas doesn't have to be as strong as before because it is still stronger than any other alternative,” said Jerome Drevon, senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Even so, the group appears to be replenishing its ranks.
Senior U.S. officials have said that Hamas has recruited as many new fighters as it lost during the war, although they are not considered to be as experienced.
Drevon said Israel’s strategy to solve the Hamas issue militarily has failed. The alternative, he said, is a political settlement with the Palestinians.
But that is opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right members of his ruling coalition.
“For them, there is no political compromise,” said Drevon about the Israeli far-right. “It's only about reaching their full victory."
On January 19, Israel’s far-right national-security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned from Netanyahu’s cabinet to protest the Gaza truce deal. He said the agreement would “destroy all of Israel’s achievements.”
Iran's Ally
Drevon said that, despite surviving the war with Israel, “replenishing its arsenal will be more difficult” for Hamas, which has received some financial and military support from Iran.
Israel has imposed a land, sea, and air blockade on Gaza since 2007. It controls Gaza’s 12-kilometer-long land border with Egypt. Israel had repeatedly accused Hamas of smuggling weapons through underground tunnels from Egypt.
He said that Iran is likely to continue supporting Hamas, but bankrolling the group will no longer be a main concern.
“Iran's priority is Iran,” Drevon said. “For them, what matters is to find a new agreement with Western countries and the U.S.”
Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in years after suffering a series of major blows.
During a punishing 2024, Tehran saw its regional influence diminished and its military deterrence against archfoes Israel and the United States weakened.
The Islamic republic has tough decisions to make after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House. The nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, which Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from in 2018 during his first term, also expires later this year.
Even if Iranian assistance shrinks, Hamas is still likely to be a major player in the Palestinian territories, given how entrenched it is in Gaza and the support it maintains in the occupied West Bank.
“It's not going to be destroyed,” said Drevon.