US-backed forces declared in 2019 that the Islamic State (IS) group had been destroyed. But as the past few years have shown, that only marked the end of its quasi-state that controlled territory in Iraq and Syria -- not the threat it continues to present.
The extremist group is demonstrating resilience and experiencing a resurgence in other parts of the world -- and its operational capabilities are evolving.
Since January 2024, IS has claimed a series of high-profile attacks across the world, from Iran and Russia to Germany and the United States.
“IS remains a persistent global security threat and the deadliest terrorist organization in the world,” Adrian Shtuni, a security specialist and head of the Washington-based Shtuni Consulting, told RFE/RL.
“Now the organization relies primarily on a dynamic network of regional affiliates who operate independently,” he said.
What Is The Current State Of IS?
The vision and aspirations of IS have not changed, but since its territorial defeat in 2019, the extremist group has undergone a radical structural and operational evolution, analysts say.
A diversified array of IS branches has emerged in recent years throughout the world, particularly in regions where there is little ability to counter extremism.
Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group consultancy, said IS has become a group for which the sum of its parts is greater than the whole.
“IS might be even more challenging as a decentralized organization than it was as a proto-state. When it was running a proto-state, it was a big target,” Clarke told RFE/RL.
IS and its affiliates have made their presence felt over the past year with deadly attacks around the world.
In January 2024, twin suicide bombings in the southern Iranian city of Kerman killed around 100 people.
Two months later, four attackers targeted the Crocus City Hall concert venue outside Moscow, killing 145 people in a mass shooting, stabbing, and arson attack.
In August, a suicide bombing killed at least 20 people in the Somali capital, Mogadishu. Days later, an IS member stabbed several people at a festival in Solingen, Germany, killing three people.
The group’s reach extends as far as the United States. On January 1, an IS-inspired assailant drove a truck into a crowd of New Year’s revelers in New Orleans, killing 14 people and injuring dozens more. The attacker, Texas-born former US Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar, was killed by police.
Shtuni said these attacks attest not only to “the continued appeal of [IS’s] brand of terrorist violence, but also to the organization’s resilience, adaptability, and global reach.”
IS and its affiliates carried out an average of around 600 attacks per year over the past three years, according to data gathered by Dragonfly, a London-based global security intelligence consultancy.
While that is down from an average of 770 incidents annually during the prior three-year period, the incidents are becoming deadlier, with the average number of casualties per attack rising 40 percent, according to Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database.
The data as it stands “does not necessarily point to a resurgence in IS (and its affiliates) in the last few years, but rather points to a degree of resilience,” Dragonfly told RFE/RL.
“However, concern has been raised in the international press over an intent by IS to increase the number of mass-casualty attacks globally,” the group said.
Where Are IS Extremists Active And How Do They Recruit?
Through its affiliates, IS maintains a strong presence and level of engagement in specific hotspots in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
One group that has emerged as one of the most active affiliates is IS-Khorasan Province (ISKP), which has expanded its operations beyond Afghanistan and is drawing militants from Central Asian nations, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Meanwhile, Somalia has become a critical hub of the group’s global expansion in Africa. It is leveraging Somalia’s instability to establish strongholds and networks attracting fighters from Ethiopia, Sudan, and Tanzania while expanding ideological outreach in multiple languages like Amharic and Swahili.
But the group is also growing fast in the Sahel region, where IS-West Africa (ISWA) remains one of the dominant terrorist organizations in the Lake Chad Basin.
Recruitment is taking place not only on the ground, but also online.
“In the digital space, IS continues to exploit social media platforms and encrypted messaging tools very effectively to disseminate its ideology, radicalize, recruit, raise funds, and plot attacks,” Shtuni said.
He pointed to a recent string of IS-inspired attacks in Europe, which he said showed three concerning trends: that the radicalization is mostly happening online, is occurring at an accelerated pace, and is increasingly involving minors and young adults.
“The online space requires a lot of attention, especially as military operations are kind of scaled back…compared to the…the global war on terror,” Lucas Webber, a senior analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, told RFE/RL.
How Does IS Fund Its Operations?
IS maintains financial resilience through diversified revenue streams and evolving tactics.
Despite leadership losses, its core in Iraq and Syria retains $10 million to 20 million in reserves, supplemented by regional branches generating funds by kidnapping-for-ransom, extortion, taxes, and robberies, according to US Treasury reports last year.
At its peak, when the group’s self-styled caliphate controlled vast territories in Iraq and Syria, oil sales dominated its income. But IS now relies on criminal activities and local exploitation to generate revenue.
In Africa, branches like IS-Somalia (ISS) extort millions from businesses and financial systems.
In Asia, ISKP initially suffered when its financial network was rocked by the arrests and killings of its key facilitators across the Middle East. However, it has recovered by shifting to virtual assets for funding external operations, including the Crocus City Hall attack.
Global connectivity remains critical, with IS increasingly using cryptocurrency to transfer reserves and donations. The group’s financial sustainability hinges on maintaining safe havens, evading financial controls, and sustaining global networks.
How Are Counterterrorism Efforts Faring?
The global reach of terrorism necessitates multilateral collaboration in counterterrorism, requiring nations to exchange intelligence, align strategies, and strengthen security capabilities in regions most susceptible to extremist activities.
Reduce any of those and opportunist extremist groups like IS find ways to thrive, as has been the case in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal and in the Sahel in Africa with France’s phased exit from the region.
In the Sahel region, the withdrawal of French forces has also resulted in a shift in regional alliances.
“The military juntas installed in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali after recent military coups have tried to fill the vacuum in counterterrorism efforts by turning to Russia, [which] has significantly increased its footprint in the region,” Shtuni said.
The United States still leads global counterterrorism efforts along with regional partners, as demonstrated by recent strikes on IS targets in Iraq, Syria, and Somalia.
This month, a US-led coalition helped Iraqi forces kill Abdullah Maki Musleh al-Rifai, also known as Abu Khadija. Described by the Iraqi government as “one of the most dangerous terrorists in Iraq and the world,” Abu Khadija was the leader of IS in Iraq and Syria.
But there is growing concern that shifting priorities in Washington can hinder the global fight against extremism “as it becomes clear that the US is shifting its focus inward and reevaluating its role on the global stage,” Shtuni warned.
General Michael E. Kurilla, head of the US military’s Central Command, has said that the thousands of IS fighters being held in Syria in facilities guarded by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces represent “a literal and figurative [IS] army in detention” and warned of the dangers “to the region and beyond” if a large number of them escaped.
Kurilla said during a visit to Syria in January -- a month after the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad -- that the US military “remains dedicated to our mission, our people, the enduring defeat of [IS], and stability throughout the region and beyond.”
Devorah Margolin, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told RFE/RL that IS “has been playing the waiting game” in Syria.
“It is hoping to use the uncertainty of the new Syria to destabilize and assert its agenda,” Margolin said.
Clarke of the Soufan Group, meanwhile, said the lack of a US presence in Afghanistan following its 2021 withdrawal has left a “major intelligence gap” in the fight against IS.
“The US has been forced to rely on signals intelligence and has extremely limited human intelligence in Afghanistan,” he said.
Clarke called IS “a much different organization today than it was seven years ago when it still had the caliphate,” saying it is “far more dependent on external operations and attacks to generate publicity.”
“They have deliberately amended their strategy to focus on launching high profile attacks in the West,” he said. “They have been aggressive and relentless in their plotting and are determined to pull off a spectacular attack in Europe or the United States.”
