The election outcomes in Moldova and Georgia highlight the starkly differing ways their respective governments and civil society pushed back to resist Russian meddling and other nefarious elements at crucial junctures for both countries.
The votes -- a presidential election and an EU constitutional referendum in Moldova and parliamentary elections in Georgia -- packed the potential to dramatically realign both former Soviet republics' geopolitical orientation or harden their current courses, with mounting challenges to both countries' strong public preferences for further EU integration.
So the winners and losers matter. But some of the early lessons lie beyond their initial winners and suggest those votes can contribute to the playbook for other embattled societies -- including among more mature democracies as well as other countries on Russia's periphery.
Counter Russian Influence Early
Moldovan officials had warned for months of threats from Russia that included disinformation and facilitating millions in illicit payments for an informal network of anti-EU organizers. An analyst who spoke with Moldovan officials in the run-up to the voting quoted them to RFE/RL as saying, "We can follow the money." And while they couldn't stop the flow of cash from Russia, they saw it and publicly identified it for what it was.
Georgia provided a lesson of a different sort. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze insisted as recently as last week that "Russia has no influence in Georgia." Caught up in a balancing act to avoid appearing overtly pro-Russian to a Russia-wary public, Georgian Dream simply ignored the problem and cast the choice as one between "war" and "peace."
As a result, even with President Salome Zurabishvili warning of Russian interference, it fell to the public to counter Moscow's economic leverage and the mobilization of pro-Russian influencers and media.
Georgians and civil society groups were freshly energized by peaceful battles against the "foreign-agent" law, popularly known as the "Russian law," and new curbs on the LGBT community, but experts told RFE/RL that preparations in the form of "raising the alarm" and "coalition building" actually began many months earlier.
Integrity And Transparency Are Key
Moldovan officials went on the offensive to protect the integrity of the country's elections, strengthening institutions and seeking to shut down illegal sources of potentially violent unrest. They also fended off cyberattacks and deepfakes, and publicly confronted what they regarded as false narratives. "You name it, they did a good job defending against it," Shelby Magid of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center told RFE/RL.
Georgian ruling-party officials appeared less preoccupied with the potential for accusations of a flawed vote. Georgian public groups and civil society were left to pick up the slack. A dozen years into Georgian Dream's political dominance, such independent (and opposition) groups suggested before the vote that they were better prepared than in the past. That showed up in things like long-term observation of procedures, international cooperation, and hotlines for reporting violations. "You name it, they were doing it," said Magid.
Cope With The Oligarchs
In Moldova, officials spent the better part of two years battling the influence of Ilan Shor, a fugitive former oligarch convicted of massive fraud who is seemingly determined to steer the country's course toward Russia. Since banning his party last year, the government has kept up its pressure with public warnings and called out an alleged multimillion-dollar Shor network to organize opposition to the EU path, among other things. "It's not just a single issue, it's more like a game of whack-a-mole -- you don't just get rid of Shor," Magid said.
In Georgia, the elephant in the room is Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire Georgian Dream founder who made his fortune in Russia. That challenge was far less black-and-white. Ivanishvili seems to be "looking out for himself and has his own antidemocratic mindset that aligns more with Russia," said Magid, adding that those goals "sometimes go hand-in-hand and other times they don't."
Don't Forget The Diaspora
The tiny margin in the EU constitutional referendum and the disparity in perspectives to Chisinau's east and its west underscore the significance of the diaspora in the Moldovan votes. Moldovan officials used a variety of channels to encourage a sense of urgency and consequence to mobilize Moldovan voters abroad, particularly in the West, including through social media, cultural outreach, and increased voting sites. "You've got to have a fire under you that your vote matters, and that information has to get to you," Magid said.
In Georgia, whose eligible expatriates are heavily concentrated in the West, governing officials appeared less keen on getting out the diaspora vote. It's easy to see why: Georgian Dream garnered just 15 percent support among emigrant voters. With the opposition hopelessly fractured and myriad alternatives to Georgian Dream on the ballot, however, that did not translate into a clear mandate elsewhere.
