BUCHAREST -- The ruling center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) has won Romania's parliamentary elections, one week after the shock victory of a far-right candidate in the first round of the country's presidential election.
Here are five takeaways from the December 1 vote:
1. Forming A Government Might Not Be Easy
As expected, the PSD, which won 23 percent of the vote, didn't win a majority, so will be looking to form a coalition government. The PSD -- Romania's most dominant party in the postcommunist period -- was previously in a strained coalition with the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), which came in third place with 14 percent.
The most likely government coalition would be an alliance of the pro-Western parties -- so, uniting the PSD, PNL, and the center-right Save Romania Union (USR.) Theoretically, that would be possible as such a coalition would have 52 percent of seats in parliament.
The main obstacle is getting the USR on board. The party of Elena Lasconi, who is competing against the far-right candidate Calin Georgescu in the presidential runoff on December 8, set itself up as an antiestablishment and anti-corruption party and has been very critical of PSD- and PNL-led governments, especially for their inaction on corruption.
Additionally, the USR's lack of administrative experience raises doubts about its ability to govern effectively within a coalition.
And there is plenty of bad blood. In 2021, the USR withdrew from a coalition government with the PNL, citing differences over governance and reforms. That led to a political crisis and the eventual formation of the PNL-PSD coalition, which was opposed by the USR.
2. The Presidential Runoff Will Be Crucial
So much hinges on the presidential runoff on December 8 between center-right candidate Lasconi and far-right candidate Georgescu. If a pro-Western coalition between the PSD, PNL, and USR is secured, it could function with Lasconi as president.
But if Georgescu wins, the country could be thrown into a political crisis. Such a scenario would pit a president who is a supporter of Russia and who wants peace in Ukraine under any circumstances against a governing coalition wanting the exact opposite.
There could be another scenario. If a PSD-PNL-USR government is in place and proves to be effective, it could impeach Georgescu, a scenario that has happened before when parliament voted twice to remove President Traian Basescu in 2007 and 2012. (Both decisions were overturned in national referendums.)
3. Electing A Prime Minister
Given the fears of instability, choosing a prime minister has become a matter of urgency. In Romania, the prime minister usually comes from the party gaining the most electoral votes. But if a government has not been formed and a prime minister not chosen before the presidential runoff, then a new president could nominate a prime minister from a party other than the PSD.
Marcel Ciolacu, the current prime minister and leader of the PSD, is the most likely candidate. His political star is fading, though, with his recent tentative resignation as PSD leader and third-place finish in the first round of the presidential election on November 24.
Here Lasconi is key -- and she is also in a bit of a bind. If she supports a PSD prime minister, it would be a political compromise undermining her antiestablishment, anti-corruption stance. That could have an impact on her showing in the presidential runoff, as she would be seen by her supporters as selling out and joining the establishment she has frequently railed against.
But to win the presidential election, Lasconi also needs to be seen as a candidate of unity and compromise. In conservative Romania, having a male prime minister supported by a clear majority would serve her candidacy well.
If Lasconi doesn't support a PSD candidate, it could lead to a delay in forming a coalition. That could mean a caretaker government and new parliamentary elections early next year.
4. The Far-Right Factor
With many Romanians unhappy about the economy, corruption, and what they see as the failed promises of EU membership, far-right parties have won around 32 percent of the seats in parliament. The far-right, ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) party won 18 percent of the vote, coming in second place.
If the pro-Western parties fail to reach an agreement on a governing coalition and a prime minister in the next day or so, it's possible that the PSD could form a government with the AUR and other smaller far-right parties.
That's unlikely, however, due to the deep ideological differences between the PSD and far-right parties. The Social Democrats and Ciolacu have said many times that they are committed to EU membership and the country's pro-Western orientation, and would be running the risk of being tainted by such an alliance.
5. Keeping On A Pro-Western Course
Despite the vicissitudes of Romania's politics, the country's pro-Western position is deeply entrenched across the Romanian political spectrum and among the elite. It was President Ion Iliescu, after all, a former communist, who set Romania on course for EU and NATO membership in the early 2000s.
Many Romanians were shocked last week with Georgescu's success in the first round of the presidential election. That shock likely contributed to the election's turnout of 52 percent, the largest for parliamentary elections in 12 years.
The turnout is expected to be even higher in the second round of the presidential vote on December 8, with many Romanians mobilizing against the far-right candidate.
All bets would be off, though, if Georgescu wins the election, as the president plays a key role in shaping the country's foreign relations and representing Romania on the international stage.
