Experts had tipped a far-right candidate as one of the favorites in Romania's presidential election, predicting a runoff with an established politician in a poll monitored closely as a barometer of populism in Europe and eroding public support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
The experts were right and wrong. Yes, a far-right candidate will go to Romania's presidential runoff on December 8. But it wasn't the one they and polls were predicting.
Calin Georgescu, an independent who barely registered in pre-election polling, not only did better than expected: The 62-year-old agricultural engineer won the November 24 first round with about 22 percent of the vote.
The race for second place turned into a drama of its own. The leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) was in a tight race with Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union, a pro-Western liberal. With 99.9 percent of the vote counted, it was Lasconi, an ardent backer of Romania's membership in NATO and the EU as well as a vocal supporter of Ukraine, who emerged as the second-place finisher.
Disappointment With Liberal Incumbent
Thirteen candidates ran for the presidency in the European Union and NATO member country. The president serves a five-year term and has significant decision-making powers in areas such as national security, foreign policy, and judicial appointments. Romania will also hold parliamentary elections on December 1 that will determine the country's next government and prime minister.
The outgoing center-right incumbent, Klaus Iohannis, ends his second term after a decade in office. For many voters, he and his ruling National Liberal Party have been a disappointment, with Iohannis widely criticized for his figurative absence during crucial events such as the coronavirus pandemic.
Voter concerns included corruption, inflation, and the state of the health and education sectors. Another issue was the conflict in neighboring Ukraine and how that conflict could change with a switch in Washington from U.S. President Joe Biden, who has steadily backed Kyiv, to President-elect Donald Trump, who has suggested support could be curtailed.
Romania has become a key ally of Ukraine, not only providing training and military equipment, including a Patriot missile defense system, but playing a key role in transporting Ukrainian grain and other agricultural goods to global markets. Much of the credit for Bucharest's pro-Ukraine stance goes to the incumbent, Iohannis.
Surprise Win
But it was Georgescu's surprise showing that grabbed headlines.
Ahead of the vote, experts were focused on a different far-right figure. Opinion polls showed that George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), was in second or even first place.
Analysts had expected Simion, a vocal supporter of Trump, to face Ciolacu in the second round. Simion has campaigned for reunification with Moldova, which this year renewed a five-year ban on him entering the country over security concerns, and he is banned for the same reason from neighboring Ukraine.
Georgescu was also a prominent member of AUR, which had picked him as their choice for prime minister. But he left the party in 2022 amid criticism from senior AUR leaders that his pro-Russian, anti-NATO stance was detrimental to the party's image.
In a 2021 interview, he called NATO's ballistic missile defense shield in Deveselu, southern Romania, a "shame of diplomacy," claiming the military alliance would not defend any of its members in case of a Russian attack.
He has also said Ion Antonescu, Romania's de facto World War II leader who was sentenced to death for his part in Romania's Holocaust, and Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the pre-World War II leader of the Iron Guard -- one of Europe's most violent anti-Semitic movements -- were national heroes.
Georgescu holds a doctorate in pedology, a branch of soil science, and held different positions in Romania's Environment Ministry in the 1990s. Between 1999 and 2012, he was a representative for Romania on the national committee of the United Nations Environment Program.
TikTok Campaign
Like other fringe politicians, Georgescu is savvy with social media. His TikTok account had 1.6 million likes. On it, he has posted videos of himself attending church, doing judo, running on a track, and speaking on podcasts.
Just days before the vote, Georgescu launched a TikTok campaign calling for an end to aid for Ukraine, apparently striking a chord with voters. He has also sounded a skeptical note on Romania's NATO membership.
His anti-Western messaging is routinely amplified on Russian, state-run media and Kremlin-friendly social media.
After casting his ballot, Georgescu said in a post on Facebook that he voted "for the unjust, for the humiliated, for those who feel they do not matter and actually matter the most.... The vote is a prayer for the nation."
His other stances include supporting Romanian farmers, reducing dependency on imports, and ramping up energy and food production.
Simion said he congratulated Georgescu and that he was "very happy that approximately 40 percent of the votes of Romanians went toward the sovereign option" and that he would be in the second round.
The runoff vote on December 8 will offer a stark choice between Georgescu and Lasconi, who among the leading candidates was the most bullish on Romania's membership in the EU and NATO, even calling for a greater NATO presence in Romania. Lasconi was also the only leading candidate to reject Ukraine making territorial concessions to secure peace.
